j1
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Post by j1 on Feb 20, 2019 21:59:57 GMT
A no deal clearly doesn't!
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Post by martin44 on Feb 21, 2019 0:06:04 GMT
This group of 11 (so far) IMO are nothing more than a rag tag bunch of re moaning anti brexit traitors. While i can fully understand the position of the labour turncoats with regards to the institutional anti semitic racism, a leader who regards sitting on a platform with the likes of Hammas, and an anti nuclear policy that would put this country's future at severe risk, the position of the Tory turncoats is quite unacceptable, Anna Soubry is the epitome of a career tory democrat who has no regard whatsoever for her constituency of broxtowe who voted to leave by over 52%.
I would love to be a fly on the wall listening to this group discussing the austerity policies of the last 10 years , especially soubry and amunna.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 21, 2019 0:29:29 GMT
You were under no obligation to accept his advice - you could and should have conducted your own research and formed your own opinion.
Spot on.
And if you were unable to verify that the land of milk and honey actually existed, then you should do what any sane person would do. Stick with the status quo, or accept that you are taking a large step into the unknown.
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Post by martin44 on Feb 21, 2019 0:35:50 GMT
Regardless, they should have stayed. This gives more power to the ERG wing, not less. And more reason for TM to do what they don't want: pander to ERG/DUP.
Whatever else, it is utterly scandalous that TM has led the country into a position whereby the party of govt is at the mercy of that bunch of dinosaurs otherwise known as the DUP.
Im not sure why you see the situation as "utterly scandalous" , TM at the time was under pressure from her own party to call a general election, as they thought they were in a position to strengthen their position with regards to carrying out the electorates decision to leave the EU, the outcome of the GE, due to the blatant lies aimed at the yoof by the labour party decided the position of the DUP .
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Post by captainconfident on Feb 21, 2019 9:41:11 GMT
......... bunch of re moaning anti brexit traitors. Do you really think this way of talking about clearly principled people, and in terms of a 48%-52% vote outcome is acceptable? Do you not accept that they were sent to the commons by the voters of their constituencies to make decisions on behalf of those voters? And that they are supposed to use their judgement to do what they think is best for their constituents? Because that is what they are doing and it is how the democratic constitution of this country works. It has been in use for 500 years. Try to understand that. On the other hand, Majoritarianism is the idea that if you win, you govern to represent only those who voted for you. You see that in Trump America and Turkey for instance. And there you also hear anyone who opposes you through the remains of the democratic system called 'traitors'. martin44, you are the spirit of the new times.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 21, 2019 9:43:21 GMT
......... bunch of re moaning anti brexit traitors. Do you really think this way of talking about clearly principled people, and in terms of a 48%-52% vote outcome is acceptable? Do you not accept that they were sent to the commons by the voters of their constituencies to make decisions on behalf of those voters? And that they are supposed to use their judgement to do what they think is best for their constituents? Because that is what they are doing and it is how the democratic constitution of this country works. It has been in use for 500 years. Try to understand that. On the other hand, Majoritarianism is the idea that if you win, you govern to represent only those who voted for you. You see that in Trump America and Turkey for instance. And there you also hear anyone who opposes you through the remains of the democratic system called 'traitors'. martin44 , you are the spirit of the new times. And more and more here in the UK. "Enemies of the people". Scary times.
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Feb 21, 2019 11:04:43 GMT
Brexit is the check-out desk, but the EU is the Hotel California.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 21, 2019 12:25:38 GMT
Do you not accept that they were sent to the commons by the voters of their constituencies to make decisions on behalf of those voters? That may be what the voters intended, but it rarely happens in practice.
MP's normally vote the way their party leader tells them to vote, unless there is a general election just around the corner (when they suddenly become interested in what the average punters views are).
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 21, 2019 14:41:50 GMT
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toffeeboy
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Post by toffeeboy on Feb 21, 2019 15:07:06 GMT
I was about to break out the champagne when I realised that at least for the short term probably we will be seeing even more of the dreadful Anna Soubry. Broxtowe had a massive turnout in 2016 and voted Leave 54.6% to Remain 45.4%, having voted to implement Article 50 Ms Soubry has done everything that she can to overturn the will of her constituents. I don't think the is evidence that a majority of her constituents voted for a no-deal Brexit, or even a TM Hard Brexit. But I'd be happy to see a referendum to test it to get clarity on the matter. The referendum was leave or remain, the majority voted to leave the EU. Most things described as a soft Brexit are basically just sitting on the edge of the EU leaving our feet in which isn't leaving.
If there is a new referendum it should be whether to accept the "best deal" that TM can get from the EU or leave with no deal as we have already had the vote between leave or remain.
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aju
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Post by aju on Feb 21, 2019 16:46:30 GMT
I don't think the is evidence that a majority of her constituents voted for a no-deal Brexit, or even a TM Hard Brexit. But I'd be happy to see a referendum to test it to get clarity on the matter. The referendum was leave or remain, the majority voted to leave the EU. Most things described as a soft Brexit are basically just sitting on the edge of the EU leaving our feet in which isn't leaving.
If there is a new referendum it should be whether to accept the "best deal" that TM can get from the EU or leave with no deal as we have already had the vote between leave or remain. Whilst as a remainer I fully accept the leave vote won by a majority. If I were to analyse this though it was on a 72% turnout or thereabouts. I think the mistake that was made, if I can call it that, was it should have been made a stipulation that the vote had to have a wider margin of victory. I know that would have meant further votes probably as clearly it would have been impossible to get a result. Sadly I think Cameron and his ill advised cronies thought it would be a simple win and the remain Conservatives could put it to bed for another generation or two! - that was an interesting punt that went wrong though. These new distractions of MP's leaving their parties is also an interesting one, which thankfully does not affect our area directly but quite how I would feel if I had voted for one of them on their original Con/Lab manifestos then I would feel that they should call another bi-election and fight it out in the correct way IMHO that is. As I said as a remainer at the outset I just now want them to get on with it and to be honest if they had another ref or whatever I would be voting for leave and not remain if those were the options. To be honest I've hardened the more the EU idiots play us for the fools we seem to be becoming and I'm not sure I want to be a part of the bullying team anyway. Edit: changed %age turnout from 60%
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toffeeboy
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Post by toffeeboy on Feb 21, 2019 17:09:51 GMT
The referendum was leave or remain, the majority voted to leave the EU. Most things described as a soft Brexit are basically just sitting on the edge of the EU leaving our feet in which isn't leaving.
If there is a new referendum it should be whether to accept the "best deal" that TM can get from the EU or leave with no deal as we have already had the vote between leave or remain. Whilst as a remainer I fully accept the leave vote won by a majority. If I were to analyse this though it was on a 60% turnout or thereabouts. I think the mistake that was made, if I can call it that, was it should have been made a stipulation that the vote had to have a wider margin of victory. I know that would have meant further votes probably as clearly it would have been impossible to get a result. Sadly I think Cameron and his ill advised cronies thought it would be a simple win and the remain Conservatives could put it to bed for another generation or two! - that was an interesting punt that went wrong though. These new distractions of MP's leaving their parties is also an interesting one, which thankfully does not affect our area directly but quite how I would feel if I had voted for one of them on their original Con/Lab manifestos then I would feel that they should call another bi-election and fight it out in the correct way IMHO that is. As I said as a remainer at the outset I just now want them to get on with it and to be honest if they had another ref or whatever I would be voting for leave and not remain if those were the options. To be honest I've hardened the more the EU idiots play us for the fools we seem to be becoming and I'm not sure I want to be a part of the bullying team anyway. The turnout makes no difference, those that chose not to vote don't matter as they couldn't be bothered. Yes I know a few wouldn't have been able to but they are the very minority.
The referendum wasn't binding so there was no need for a stipulation of required margin of victory, also to insert a required margin of victory would have angered those that campaigned for leave as it made their requirement all the more difficult.
I think the problem started with the EU to be honest, Cameron went to them asking for it to change so he didn't have to hold the referendum as he promised UKIP a referendum if the EU wasn't changed. The EU basically laughed at him and said we aren't giving you squat as we are great and you won't leave. Hence he had to hold a referendum, which I agree he and nearly everyone though would be won by remain. I think that leavers such as Boris didn't even believe that they could win which is why so little planning had been done.
Brexit should have been cross party from the beginning, we are leaving as one nation (or 4 nations) it isn't about the parties it is about the country as a whole and getting the best for it. If it was done cross party then most of the political point scoring would have gone out of the window and as for these people leaving their party then each one should have to be relected at a by election, they wouldn't have deserted their party so quickly if that was the case.
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aju
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Post by aju on Feb 21, 2019 17:48:47 GMT
Whilst as a remainer I fully accept the leave vote won by a majority. If I were to analyse this though it was on a 60% turnout or thereabouts. I think the mistake that was made, if I can call it that, was it should have been made a stipulation that the vote had to have a wider margin of victory. I know that would have meant further votes probably as clearly it would have been impossible to get a result. Sadly I think Cameron and his ill advised cronies thought it would be a simple win and the remain Conservatives could put it to bed for another generation or two! - that was an interesting punt that went wrong though. These new distractions of MP's leaving their parties is also an interesting one, which thankfully does not affect our area directly but quite how I would feel if I had voted for one of them on their original Con/Lab manifestos then I would feel that they should call another bi-election and fight it out in the correct way IMHO that is. As I said as a remainer at the outset I just now want them to get on with it and to be honest if they had another ref or whatever I would be voting for leave and not remain if those were the options. To be honest I've hardened the more the EU idiots play us for the fools we seem to be becoming and I'm not sure I want to be a part of the bullying team anyway. The turnout makes no difference, those that chose not to vote don't matter as they couldn't be bothered. Yes I know a few wouldn't have been able to but they are the very minority.
The referendum wasn't binding so there was no need for a stipulation of required margin of victory, also to insert a required margin of victory would have angered those that campaigned for leave as it made their requirement all the more difficult.
I think the problem started with the EU to be honest, Cameron went to them asking for it to change so he didn't have to hold the referendum as he promised UKIP a referendum if the EU wasn't changed. The EU basically laughed at him and said we aren't giving you squat as we are great and you won't leave. Hence he had to hold a referendum, which I agree he and nearly everyone though would be won by remain. I think that leavers such as Boris didn't even believe that they could win which is why so little planning had been done.
Brexit should have been cross party from the beginning, we are leaving as one nation (or 4 nations) it isn't about the parties it is about the country as a whole and getting the best for it. If it was done cross party then most of the political point scoring would have gone out of the window and as for these people leaving their party then each one should have to be relected at a by election, they wouldn't have deserted their party so quickly if that was the case.
I can agree with much of your comments and I definitely agree the turnout makes little difference but everyone frames it as the people voted and 54%(17.4M) voted for Leave and 48% (16.1M) voted for remain without the true numbers in my opinion. We don't really know what the other 14M or so wanted one way or the other that's true. That's not to say what they may have voted and we may never know. I won't personally as I don't know anyone who didn't bother to vote anyway. Since the whole debate is much more in your face now as the sudden realisation starts to hit home then whilst it maybe not strictly be correct to use this stat effectively only 37% truly voted for leave and 34.7% voted to remain(See wiki for more numbers). So that could mean that if we had another vote, lets not please, we cannot know which way this might go. I know a lot of remainers, in my camp that is, are saying for pity's sake let's just get it done and get on to more important work - such as health, care, housing etc. The well worn words of YPM's Sir Humphrey "In the fullness of time ...." spring to mind I guess... (YPM = Yes Prime Minister)
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Post by samford71 on Feb 21, 2019 20:06:49 GMT
In my view, Leave was a protest vote against the establishment; an establishment that for too long has allowed inequality to grow whilst doing little to implement progressive and evidence-based policies for fear of upsetting core groups of reliable voters. People are upset at the increasing divide in wealth trajectory, upset with a broken tax system, upset with party politics taking precedence over public good, upset with a political system which they feel they have little influence on and which doesn't represent them, upset by the decline in their local high streets, upset by the increasingly isolated way in which we live our lives. The referendum was seen as an opportunity to take all of those frustrations and stick it to the man. Unfortunately, I don't see how leaving the EU positively impacts any of the above. I'm sure there are many people who have many other reasons for voting leave and we could argue about the validity of those reasons all day, however, I firmly believe the reasons above to be the deciding factor in the referendum outcome. I also think the Leave vs. Remain split is not really about the EU, nor is it really even about sovereignty. Clearly, for a non-neglible minority of Leavers, sovereignty is the key issue. For another minority, say those who take a anti-statist liberatarian stance, then the EU will be an arch enemy since it represents a supranational entity. Many of the high profile Tory Ultras fit into these categories and, while I disagree with their views, I cannot say their views are not internally consistent. I don't think, however, the majority of Leave voters are libertarians or obsessed by sovereignty. Moreover, prior to the migration crisis, the EU was only seen as the key issue by around 6% of the population.
cb25 reminded me of the very good Lord Ashcroft Poll poll of 12,369 people from June 24, 2016, just after the referendum ( link). There has been a tendency to see Remain vs. Leave along lines of education and age. D ata does supports that. So 62% of 25-34 were Remain, while 60% of 65+ were Leave; 57% of A/B were remain, 64% of C2/DE were Leave etc. In most cases, however, the breakdown is more 55/45, so the signal is not hugely strong.
Where the signal is much stronger is on non-economic values. When asked whether people thought "immigration was a force for ill", Remainers voted 20%, Leavers 80%. With regard to "Multiculturalism being a force for ill" the numbers were 19% for Remain, 81% for Leave. It was a similar breakdown for Social Liberalism, Feminism, Globalism and the Green Movement. By comparison when asked whether "Capitalism was a force for ill", an economic issue, the ratio was much more even at 51% for Remain and 49% for Leave. Given the size of the poll sample, this is clearly a strong signal and not simply polling errors. Perhaps a dichotomy of local/traditional/inward vs. globalist/independent/outward fits the Leave vs. Remain demographics better. It's also clear this isn't just happening in the UK. These splits are also repeated in the US and explain Red State Trump vs. Clinton coastal liberal views. This is also why I tend toward the idea that whatever the outcome of Brexit, resentment will quickly rise again.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 21, 2019 21:10:53 GMT
Assume your analysis is correct samford71 , and isn't there a certain contradictory irony in the dichotomy you lay out? "local traditional inward" votes leave (freedom from shackles and enhanced global trading etc) whilst "globalist independent outward" votes remain (tied to the coat-tails of a dodery superannuated European superstate in the making etc) Perhaps that explains your last sentence about resentment quickly rising again? I suspect we'll see the definitive work on the Trump presidency long before we see the same on Brexit.
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