IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 13, 2019 12:52:28 GMT
regarding ii) - The EU is clear there is only one deal on offer - May's deal. So have a referendum on ratifying or not the deal on offer, and make it binding this time. Would ensure the electoral rules were followed too. Party manifestos are not binding and the lack of honesty about the necessary tradeoffs and compromises of Brexit would just continue (from both sides of the House). Though I accept MPs don't want it, no-deal Brexit is also on the table (in fact it's the law and will remain so even after today's vote as Laura Kuenssberg just explained on BBC2's Politics Live in front of Rory Stewart). If a second referendum is announced, I can see a petition starting almost immediately asking that no-deal Brexit be included as an option.
Politics Live also had Anneliese Dodds (Labour) MP on it. I believe Labour's position is that they want to be in a (not 'the') customs union, but one that allows the UK to negotiate free trade deals. Despite the fact the EU will never allow it.
Both Labour and Tory positions are hopeless. No deal in an alternative vote (preferential voting) with May's deal and Remain is fine - you are right they are the only available options. Though Parliament may not want to risk no deal given its potential consequences (for which they will be blamed)
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 13, 2019 13:03:11 GMT
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 13, 2019 13:49:22 GMT
Surprised that May hasn't grabbed at the (so far not offered) Kyle-Wilson Amendment (discussed here). This passes her deal and gives the EU an acceptable reason to prolong Article 50. This is the one idea that cuts the Gordian knot for the majority in Parliament that does not want a WTO Brexit.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 13, 2019 18:53:12 GMT
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Post by df on Mar 13, 2019 21:27:55 GMT
Ok Jeremy you get your GE. What is in your manifesto? <snip> I don't think Jeremy is reading this forum.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 13, 2019 22:59:35 GMT
Ok Jeremy you get your GE. What is in your manifesto? <snip> I don't think Jeremy is reading this forum. I don’t think Jeremy is on this planet let alone this forum
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copacetic
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Post by copacetic on Mar 13, 2019 23:57:50 GMT
It's interesting to note that even if parliament votes to approve an extension tomorrow it still has to put it into UK law then get the unanimous agreement of the European council for an extension. I'm wondering how likely it is one of the heads of the member states just decides to vote against extending,* leaving the UK no choice but to leave on the 29th March. That would certainly shake things up.
*(or use their vote as a ransom to get something from the EU)
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 14, 2019 0:48:34 GMT
It seems the government plan is to bring the WA back for MV3 Mon 18th or Tue 19th next week - my guess Tuesday (but this won't be formally announced till Mon evening.) The speaker may have the right to block this unless the WA package of supporting docs has changed, or there is demonstrable demand (!) from the HoC for it to be represented. Either way it won't pass.
On Thurs 21st government will have to formally ask EU for the (long) extension, and give the justification ... which to my mind can only be for Ref2 and/or EEA+CU (and as I've said before probably a precursor GE). But neither of these is ever going to be proposed by the government.
So in normal (!) circumstances we would arrive at Wed afternoon next week (20th) with the HoC needing to find the reason to support the extension request to be formally submitted the next day. But maybe the amendments submited for tomorrows vote if selected will start this process.
The calls in the meantime to modify the Withdrawal Act to reflect the no deal votes of today will be ignored by the government, rightly so as you can't modify the act to change the date of the 29th until the EU has agreed the new date (if indeed they do agree).
The alternative now is parliament attempts to userp due process to take over business management of the HoC from Leadsom/Government to force time in the schedule to consider the alternatives sooner rather than later. Totally unprecedented, and likely to involve countless wasted hours in debate trying to achieve it. If they succeed and then debate alternatives thats one thing, but if they succeed and then start legislating to change the Withdrawal Act, or for Revoking Art 50 you really are into a constitutional crisis.
Things might look messy this week, but they are going to get an awful lot messier next week.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 14, 2019 0:51:35 GMT
How can the UK have a "long" extension? If we were to we'd have to vote in the MEP elections (whatever it's called) at the end of May, ahhemm, and that would be absurd. Also this:-
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 14, 2019 7:26:28 GMT
How can the UK have a "long" extension? If we were to we'd have to vote in the MEP elections (whatever it's called) at the end of May, ahhemm, and that would be absurd. Also this:- If we need a long extension to do this properly then so be it. Taking part in Euro elections, since we are still a member of the EU, strikes me as far less absurd than some of the shenanigans our politicians have got up to in the last 3 years.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 14, 2019 7:30:17 GMT
It's interesting to note that even if parliament votes to approve an extension tomorrow it still has to put it into UK law then get the unanimous agreement of the European council for an extension. I'm wondering how likely it is one of the heads of the member states just decides to vote against extending,* leaving the UK no choice but to leave on the 29th March. That would certainly shake things up.
*(or use their vote as a ransom to get something from the EU)
If they refuse an A50 extension, then the only option is to rescind. And then have another go with a proper plan thought out and agreed in advance, after a GE and/or ref.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 14, 2019 8:15:16 GMT
Another master stroke by Parliament, we are now not really in the EU, cannot agree a deal with the EU, cannot leave without a deal. The EU could force us to leave on the agreed date, or just refuse any further discussions on deals 'this is what you've got', and leave us dangling in limbo indefinitely. The EU have all the cards and we are up a creek without a paddle (mixing my metaphors). Marvellous! Could Parliament have put us in a worse position?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 14, 2019 9:30:37 GMT
There were a couple of interesting events yesterday.
First was when May was giving her speech after losing the no-deal vote. She indicated we might have to Remain. Big cheer went up from MPs (not sure which side(s) of the House). I accept most MPs think the country should remain in the UK, but I wonder how many of them stood on a manifesto saying we'd leave the EU? Bunch of two-faced ...
Other one was author Lionel Shriver on BBC2's Newsnight, saying there appeared to be little/no 'penalty' for MPs who simply ignored the referendum. She suggested those MPs would have little problem with voters becoming disenfranchised as they'd be no real loss.
Time for a GE.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 14, 2019 11:11:01 GMT
Another master stroke by Parliament, we are now not really in the EU, cannot agree a deal with the EU, cannot leave without a deal. The EU could force us to leave on the agreed date, or just refuse any further discussions on deals 'this is what you've got', and leave us dangling in limbo indefinitely. The EU have all the cards and we are up a creek without a paddle (mixing my metaphors). Marvellous! Could Parliament have put us in a worse position? Have another look, Greenwood2. This is "Take Back Control" in action.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 14, 2019 11:14:30 GMT
There were a couple of interesting events yesterday.
First was when May was giving her speech after losing the no-deal vote. She indicated we might have to Remain. Big cheer went up from MPs (not sure which side(s) of the House). I accept most MPs think the country should remain in the UK, but I wonder how many of them stood on a manifesto saying we'd leave the EU? Bunch of two-faced ...
Other one was author Lionel Shriver on BBC2's Newsnight, saying there appeared to be little/no 'penalty' for MPs who simply ignored the referendum. She suggested those MPs would have little problem with voters becoming disenfranchised as they'd be no real loss.
Time for a GE.
A large proportion of voters are disenfranchised in a GE. There are not many constituencies where the outcome is in doubt and people find it pointless to go and vote because they know their candidate cannot win.
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