IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 14, 2019 11:25:18 GMT
Another master stroke by Parliament, we are now not really in the EU, cannot agree a deal with the EU, cannot leave without a deal. The EU could force us to leave on the agreed date, or just refuse any further discussions on deals 'this is what you've got', and leave us dangling in limbo indefinitely. The EU have all the cards and we are up a creek without a paddle (mixing my metaphors). Marvellous! Could Parliament have put us in a worse position? Funny, I was sure we were told it was the other way around
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 11:27:18 GMT
The EU have all the cards and we are up a creek without a paddle (mixing my metaphors). I have managed construction sites for the last 30 years and routinely get involved in final account negotiations with clients and sub-contractors. I have been on more negotiating skills courses than I care to remember.
The first thing they tell you on the course is that there are 2 golden rules in negotiations:
- never let the other side know what your bottom line is
- always be prepared to walk away
The voting fiasco last night (assuming TM takes notice of it) has wrecked any chance we have of getting a decent deal. The best way forward now is probably to get the bosses of the top unions to negotiate for us, as they obviously know how the game is played.
Having no deal brexit on the table is a bit like our nuclear deterrent. Everyone prays that you will never need to use it, but having it there means you are operating from a position of strength.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 14, 2019 11:28:54 GMT
There were a couple of interesting events yesterday.
First was when May was giving her speech after losing the no-deal vote. She indicated we might have to Remain. Big cheer went up from MPs (not sure which side(s) of the House). I accept most MPs think the country should remain in the UK, but I wonder how many of them stood on a manifesto saying we'd leave the EU? Bunch of two-faced ...
Other one was author Lionel Shriver on BBC2's Newsnight, saying there appeared to be little/no 'penalty' for MPs who simply ignored the referendum. She suggested those MPs would have little problem with voters becoming disenfranchised as they'd be no real loss.
Time for a GE.
I think they, like us, are allowed to change their minds in a democracy. In the light of what has happened, I would argue that it would be astounding if none of them had changed their views. The real democratic deficit is that most MPs are in safe seats and can do pretty much as they please regarding the electorate. The system in fact encourages more extreme views as local party constituency members tend to be more extreme and are the only ones who need to be placated.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 11:28:55 GMT
It's interesting to note that even if parliament votes to approve an extension tomorrow it still has to put it into UK law then get the unanimous agreement of the European council for an extension. I'm wondering how likely it is one of the heads of the member states just decides to vote against extending,* leaving the UK no choice but to leave on the 29th March. That would certainly shake things up.
*(or use their vote as a ransom to get something from the EU)
If they refuse an A50 extension, then the only option is to rescind. or leave on 29th without a deal (which is still legally the default position)
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 14, 2019 11:30:45 GMT
The EU have all the cards and we are up a creek without a paddle (mixing my metaphors). I have managed construction sites for the last 30 years and routinely get involved in final account negotiations with clients and sub-contractors. I have been on more negotiating skills courses than I care to remember.
The first thing they tell you on the course is that there are 2 golden rules in negotiations:
- never let the other side know what your bottom line is
- always be prepared to walk away
The voting fiasco last night (assuming TM takes notice of it) has wrecked any chance we have of getting a decent deal. The best way forward now is probably to get the bosses of the top unions to negotiate for us, as they obviously know how the game is played.
Having no deal brexit on the table is a bit like our nuclear deterrent. Everyone prays that you will never need to use it, but having it there means you are operating from a position of strength.
And the golden rule on the other side is to call an obvious bluff. No deal has never been a realistic option.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 14, 2019 11:31:40 GMT
If they refuse an A50 extension, then the only option is to rescind. or leave on 29th without a deal (which is still legally the default position) but the government can't do this as HoC has said they can't. If they allowed this, we would be in a dictatorship. They HAVE to find a way not to leave with no deal.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 11:34:15 GMT
How can the UK have a "long" extension? The EU have always said that there could only be a significant extension if it was for a second referendum or a GE. However, this is the EU talking, and they are well known for changing their position at the last minute.
Current situation is that "EU Council President Donald Tusk has said he will appeal to EU countries to be open to a "long extension" to negotiations if the UK decides to rethink its Brexit strategy". That sound like the language of a man who thinks he has us by the balls.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 11:39:30 GMT
or leave on 29th without a deal (which is still legally the default position) but the government can't do this as HoC has said they can't. HOC has expressed an opinion. Not legally binding.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 11:43:25 GMT
Another master stroke by Parliament, we are now not really in the EU, cannot agree a deal with the EU, cannot leave without a deal. The EU could force us to leave on the agreed date, or just refuse any further discussions on deals 'this is what you've got', and leave us dangling in limbo indefinitely. The EU have all the cards and we are up a creek without a paddle (mixing my metaphors). Marvellous! Could Parliament have put us in a worse position? Funny, I was sure we were told it was the other way around Probably more accurate to say that the EU now have all the cards. Our position has gone down hill ever since parliment thought it was a good idea to 'take back control' (which it doesn't appear to be making much of a job of).
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 11:45:46 GMT
And the golden rule on the other side is to call an obvious bluff. No deal has never been a realistic option. It's like a game of poker. The skill in good negotiations is not to let the other side know that you are bluffing.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 14, 2019 11:50:34 GMT
There were a couple of interesting events yesterday.
First was when May was giving her speech after losing the no-deal vote. She indicated we might have to Remain. Big cheer went up from MPs (not sure which side(s) of the House). I accept most MPs think the country should remain in the UK, but I wonder how many of them stood on a manifesto saying we'd leave the EU? Bunch of two-faced ...
Other one was author Lionel Shriver on BBC2's Newsnight, saying there appeared to be little/no 'penalty' for MPs who simply ignored the referendum. She suggested those MPs would have little problem with voters becoming disenfranchised as they'd be no real loss.
Time for a GE.
I think they, like us, are allowed to change their minds in a democracy. I don't believe it's a case of MPs changing their minds, rather they've simply been lying all the time they've spouted the "of course we respect the referendum". They never had any intention of doing that.
"The real democratic deficit is that most MPs are in safe seats and can do pretty much as they please regarding the electorate" IFISAcava
"A large proportion of voters are disenfranchised in a GE. There are not many constituencies where the outcome is in doubt and people find it pointless to go and vote because they know their candidate cannot win." captainconfident
Doesn't say much for our democracy does it and probably the first time on this thread that I agree with the pair of you. I still favour a GE so we can at least show these people how much they're out of touch.
May and the Tories look dead in the water. If/when Labour every get a single policy (rather than all policies being possible), so might they be.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 11:52:30 GMT
Some interesting things here. So broadly speaking;
- There is no chance of - no deal brexit, a hard border in NI, a second referendum, article 50 being revoked, TM's deal getting through regardless of how many times she brings it back.
- but every chance of - a second no confidence motion, article 50 deadline being extended
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aju
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Post by aju on Mar 14, 2019 14:02:31 GMT
Sadly, after this morning's NI PPS result on the paras on the "Bloody Sunday" debacle in LondonDerry/Derry, I'm not sure a hard/soft border on the "Island of Ireland" will be much of an issue soon with the "IRA" also having recently claimed last weeks bomb attempts on the UK mainland were their doing. It seems to be starting all over again. Oops, the link above will not work so to see the FT article you might have to search for "British soldier charged with murder over Bloody Sunday" in google and click their link instead.
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aju
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Post by aju on Mar 14, 2019 15:12:46 GMT
aju re "sadly" - because they shouldn't have charged one paratrooper or should have charged more or some other reason? Because it brings things into the fore front yet again and last weeks bombing attempts also were something of a dejavu moment for some of our family on Mrs Aju's side, there are not many families on either side that have not suffered in one way or another. Not related to this particular incident but many of her relatives come from Derry and still reside in LondonDerry. I always find it difficult on how to say Derry or Londonderry as in the past and probably still frames your so called side of the fence and that's not healthy even now I feel. The thing with this situation is that from the paras side I guess they will be breathing a sigh of relief but from the people who have had to live with this nightmare on the other side of the fence its not going to fair well that only one person can potentially be prosecuted for this. I sincerely hope that this Brexit stuff does not start this whole thing off again as NI and the south are just magnificent places to visit that all though the troubles we - having english accents - were always advised by family to not actually go there until long after the agreements were settled and the army left.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 14, 2019 16:24:29 GMT
Interesting comments on the NI border issue.
The backstop plan for the Irish border remains the key sticking point for Theresa May's Brexit deal.
Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, was asked on Thursday if there could be a debate to consider whether there might be a solution to this involving Article 62 of the Vienna Convention.
So, what is it?
The Vienna Convention is the treaty that lays down the rules about treaties - legal agreements between countries.
Article 62 of the treaty says that if there has been "a fundamental change of circumstances" following the conclusion of a treaty "which was not foreseen by the parties", then the countries involved would be allowed to withdraw from the treaty.
Not certain the terrorists would agree
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