cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 18, 2018 14:50:21 GMT
If May faces a no-confidence vote (and not at all certain she will), I think she'll probably win, but she still won't get the deal through.
It strikes me as incredibly revealing on several levels that ERG&co can't even organise 48 letters. Agreed. Could be they just want her policy changed, not her role as PM
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Nov 18, 2018 14:53:34 GMT
It strikes me as incredibly revealing on several levels that ERG&co can't even organise 48 letters. Agreed. Could be they just want her policy changed, not her role as PM Probably no one else wants the poisoned chalice.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 18, 2018 14:53:46 GMT
We had a good constructive run, but how about a referendum a dictatorially-inclined mod ending this thread? I think at this point we're only going to go rapidly downhill. I don't know about anyone else, but I have more than enough Brexit in my twitter feed. Oh no we shouldn'tš (getting ready for panto season). /Mod hat off I don't see the harm provided it stays clean, and, NO, that's not an invitation! Alright <rolls up sleeves>, I did warn you
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 18, 2018 15:23:21 GMT
Having read various papers on both the right and left, and listened to various politicians again on both the right and left, the only encouraging thing is that nobody (apart from May and some of her followers) thinks the current deal has any chance of succeeding. Too close to remaining for many on the right, not remaining nearly enough for those on the left. Electorally, Tories will be screwed if they pass this deal and Labour will be screwed if they support it. Going to make the next election fun.
If May faces a no-confidence vote (and not at all certain she will), I think she'll probably win, but she still won't get the deal through. Tories who are unhappy with her due to this deal won't be voting for the deal even if she survives any challenge. Her only chance is to gain enough support from Labour and that would do them massive damage. So we are at an impasse. Since the politicians won't or can't take responsibility for making a decision, has to go back to the people.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 18, 2018 15:35:34 GMT
If May faces a no-confidence vote (and not at all certain she will), I think she'll probably win, but she still won't get the deal through.
It strikes me as incredibly revealing on several levels that ERG&co can't even organise 48 letters. Agree, and I think she's correct in what she says that removing her won't change the problem. Like pulling the head off a sheep tick that's burrowed in to your inner thigh, it's probably only going to make the whole thing worse and infect the situation even more. No-one likes the deal. So, the approval of the deal rests on what alternatives are proposed to be on offer. The success of it rests on just how unappealing TM can make the alternatives sound. That's a terrible state of affairs isn't it? "Take up this deal because it's the least worst" . Which of course, it isn't by a long stretch compared to doing nothing. But then that would apparently be an affront to democracy. Despite the fact that only a lunatic would have voted for what has been ultimately produced "in the national interest" had it been offered in 2016 I hope we can all agree at least that whatever this deal is, it's damn well not the will of the people as expressed in 2016 as it stands. It's a hotchpotch of some of what we have already with a miasma of illusory 'taking back control' whilst actually giving up many of our rights and privileges. No-one stood on their doorstep and told Nigel "what I really fancy is having our rules governed by the EU but not having a say anymore. Oh, and less jobs all round too if poss". Some say "but we will have technically left the EU - tick - will of people fulfilled" , which seems akin to me to agreeing to going into hospital to have your liver replaced and being told at the hospital that there was a mix-up and actually your liver was fine. " But this is what I signed up to, AND I AM GOING....". A little bloody-minded to say the least. That isn't what democracy is to me. If we had had (or have in the future) a decision to go for this actual deal, or indeed (heaven forbid) for a 'clean break' at least the will of the people could be considered to have been served. As it is, I don't see how it can be argued that this is what we collectively fancied a bit of. Before someone chimes in with the inevitable, it's not about assuming the 'little people' were too stupid to have voted for the right option. In all but name, this deal is not even close to the Woolworth's pick and mix range of delights put on offer pre-referendum. Now thoroughly up on my pedestal, what I hope we see in the next days and weeks is a piece-by-piece dissecting of this deal whilst measuring it up to a) what the people voted for and b) what we have now. What I expect to see is extensive comparison between this deal and no-deal, with the continuing unmentioned bizarre background equation that says "peoples will = whatever we came up with = national interest".
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 18, 2018 16:09:13 GMT
Yesterday multiple mentions were made in the MSM that ERG were intending to publish (today, Sunday) a detailed review of the draft withdarwal agreement written (in part) by legal advisers commissioned specifically to interpret the legalese.
I've not read it yet, but the review has been published here, and not yet reported on by MSM (that I've seen anyway)
Re confidence vote numbers, I think its too early to conclude anything, as many MP's will have wanted to seek the views of their constituency associations first this weekend. Most comments on this thread (incl. mine) expect May to win a confidence motion if it happens, but her fate really rests with the DUP who last week were pressing for May to step down.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 18, 2018 17:08:40 GMT
Most comments on this thread (incl. mine) expect May to win a confidence motion if it happens, but her fate really rests with the DUP who last week were pressing for May to step down.
How would altering the PM benefit the DUP? Their biggest problem is that anything other than no deal will come with the backstop, which is the one thing they want nothing to do with.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 18, 2018 17:40:41 GMT
Most comments on this thread (incl. mine) expect May to win a confidence motion if it happens, but her fate really rests with the DUP who last week were pressing for May to step down.
How would altering the PM benefit the DUP? Their biggest problem is that anything other than no deal will come with the backstop, which is the one thing they want nothing to do with.
Especially because the DUP say their deal is with the Conservative party, not with May.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 22, 2018 17:33:19 GMT
May receiving a good shoeing from nearly all quarters regarding her statement today. And rightly so. We have a clearly defined exit where everybody loses something, and a Christmas wishlist of things for the future that we'll be in a very weak position to actually negotiate for. Coming back to the original question, does this deliver the electorate's vote? That barely deserves an answer. I retract my sneaking suspicion about this deal getting through Parliament - how possibly can it? Despite this, the currency markets seem to interpret the agreed wording of the way forward positively (Sterling nearly 1% up against dollar). It almost seems too easy to bet on Sterling dropping within a month. I've never traded FX before, but I'm almost tempted. Also, Interesting betfair market here - Which to happen first - May to leave Office of PM, or the UK to leave the EU? May leaving is roughly 60/40 favourite.
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Post by martin44 on Nov 27, 2018 23:19:51 GMT
Interesting to see how the political landscape is evolving, one day in from mrs mays commons statement we have mp,s making commitments to vote down the pm's brexit deal against there constituents wishes, Mmm.. ? (edit) Krispin Blunt.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Nov 28, 2018 0:09:16 GMT
Interesting to see how the political landscape is evolving, one day in from mrs mays commons statement we have mp,s making commitments to vote down the pm's brexit deal against there constituents wishes, Mmm.. ? (edit) Krispin Blunt. I'm afraid I can't quite parse some of your post, and I'm not quite sure why "Krispin Blunt" (sic) has been singled out, but it remains an important part of our parliamentary democracy that MPs are elected as representatives and not delegates. Thus, I would expect all MPs to make the decisions that they believe best serve not just their own voters, but their constituency and the country as a whole. This, of course, also means that they should not crudely concede to an ill-defined "will of the people", as you seem to suggest.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 28, 2018 0:11:05 GMT
Interesting to see how the political landscape is evolving, one day in from mrs mays commons statement we have mp,s making commitments to vote down the pm's brexit deal against there constituents wishes, Mmm.. ? (edit) Krispin Blunt. Interesting is one word, horrifying is another. In the last few days we've had: - No.10 choosing to disregard a unanimous resolution to release the full legal advice of the Brexit position.
- The offer of peerages and knighthoods as bribes for votes.
- TM refusing to confirm or deny that she blocked investigation into Arron Banks because "that would impact future policy formulation"
Regardless of your views on the EU, the smell is awful. As to MP's voting against their constituents wishes, was there a referendum on this deal that I missed? I remember the one a couple of years ago which had all of the good stuff advertised in it, but I can't see that on the tin of this one.
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Post by martin44 on Nov 28, 2018 0:24:17 GMT
Interesting to see how the political landscape is evolving, one day in from mrs mays commons statement we have mp,s making commitments to vote down the pm's brexit deal against there constituents wishes, Mmm.. ? (edit) Krispin Blunt. I'm afraid I can't quite parse some of your post, and I'm not quite sure why "Krispin Blunt" (sic) has been singled out, but it remains an important part of our parliamentary democracy that MPs are elected as representatives and not delegates. Thus, I would expect all MPs to make the decisions that they believe best serve not just their own voters, but their constituency and the country as a whole. This, of course, also means that they should not crudely concede to an ill-defined "will of the people", as you seem to suggest. Mr krispin blunt has been pointed out because his constituency voted leave, and he has stated that should his in box be filled with request's for him to back the pm's deal .. he will vote against it, and as you have stated, "Thus, I would expect all MPs to make the decisions that they believe best serve not just their own voters, but their constituency"
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Post by martin44 on Nov 28, 2018 0:27:28 GMT
Interesting to see how the political landscape is evolving, one day in from mrs mays commons statement we have mp,s making commitments to vote down the pm's brexit deal against there constituents wishes, Mmm.. ? (edit) Krispin Blunt. Interesting is one word, horrifying is another. In the last few days we've had: - No.10 choosing to disregard a unanimous resolution to release the full legal advice of the Brexit position.
- The offer of peerages and knighthoods as bribes for votes.
- TM refusing to confirm or deny that she blocked investigation into Arron Banks because "that would impact future policy formulation"
Regardless of your views on the EU, the smell is awful. As to MP's voting against their constituents wishes, was there a referendum on this deal that I missed? I remember the one a couple of years ago which had all of the good stuff advertised in it, but I can't see that on the tin of this one. I remember the one a couple of years ago which had all of the good stuff advertised in it, but I can't see that on the tin of this one. ?
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Nov 28, 2018 0:39:36 GMT
I'm afraid I can't quite parse some of your post, and I'm not quite sure why "Krispin Blunt" (sic) has been singled out, but it remains an important part of our parliamentary democracy that MPs are elected as representatives and not delegates. Thus, I would expect all MPs to make the decisions that they believe best serve not just their own voters, but their constituency and the country as a whole. This, of course, also means that they should not crudely concede to an ill-defined "will of the people", as you seem to suggest. Mr krispin blunt has been pointed out because his constituency voted leave, and he has stated that should his in box be filled with request's for him to back the pm's deal .. he will vote against it, and as you have stated, "Thus, I would expect all MPs to make the decisions that they believe best serve not just their own voters, but their constituency" That's some truly remarkable editing you've managed there. My full statement was "to make decisions that they believe best serve not just their own voters, but their constituency and the country as a whole." Again, in case you misunderstood, I do not believe MPs should believe themselves bound my "the will of the people", be they in their own constituency, or the country as a whole.
You also, as far as I can tell, appear to have missed the fact that "Krispin Blunt" (still sic) is voting against the deal is because he believes it is not a hard enough Brexit.
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