registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 21, 2019 13:26:54 GMT
I'm beginning to wonder whether a short extension for a deliberate* no-deal exit is the least bad way forward.
EDIT: * To allow the country, and Europe, to prepare as best possible in the time allowed.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 21, 2019 13:41:54 GMT
Glad someone follows my rantings! I still think neither PM, Parliament or EU will let no deal happen. If it happens it will be a catastrophic misjudgement by all, which is still an outside possibility. if MV3 rejected, there will be emergency EU summit and long extension, probably with UK having to crawl on its knees a bit like Healy and the IMF in 1976 and possibly with a need to promise something (referendum or GE) or the appearance of promising something. Outside chance EU will play hardball and say no to extension (another French "Non") in which case it will be a straight choice between no deal and revocation of A50 - it would be the latter at the last minute and TM's resignation. Those are my predictions. Although she may try and hang on a bit after revoking A50 - if there's one thing we know, she is the Monty Python Black Knight (but less funny). Given that TM has consistently chosen the worst option over the last few months, I see no reason not to believe that she would allow the ERG their way again potentially, when push comes to shove. After all, given that MV3 in its current guise is already effectively dead, she could withdraw the threat now - but has still chosen not to. I still agree though, no deal is a marginal outcome, but not impossible. I want to believe, but I don't see revocation either. Mug's game etc, but my gut says that MV3 won't happen at all. No.10 know it won't succeed. Faced with the alternative prospects of having to actually listen and cooperate to Parliament or putting it back to the people, I think TM will instead opt for a long extension to support a General Election, and then resign. When faced with an opportunity for leadership, she has consistently kicked the can down the road. Where that would leave the Conservatives, their manifesto on Brexit, the same for Labour and then Brexit in general - god knows. I suspect the project wouldn't survive for one reason or another. The Brexit Years Volume 2.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 21, 2019 13:56:51 GMT
Looks like the French are indeed playing hard ball. This gov has really pissed them off now (and Macron knows that putting one up Les Anglais is a good French electoral strategy).
All outcomes are still open.
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aju
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Post by aju on Mar 21, 2019 14:02:50 GMT
Just been watching "Politics live" admittedly on an hours delay catchup, apparently there is petition to "Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU" started today that as I write this has garnered 936,705 signatures and it apparently blew the parliament site out for a time this morning. It went up over 200,000 whilst we were watching the programme. Mr Farage and Anna Soubry were almost challenging each other to yet another staring competition. The whole program took all Andrew Neil's skill to control it all. Its starting to look like Mrs May might be expecting her deal to fail, word is she will able to just blame it on the MP's - I'm starting to think I could do with some of the hibernation thingy if its all possible ...
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 21, 2019 14:12:21 GMT
Looks like the French are indeed playing hard ball. This gov has really pissed them off now (and Macron knows that putting one up Les Anglais is a good French electoral strategy). All outcomes are still open. There is a possibility that the French could say that they've had enough. This would force Theresa May to choose hard WTO Brexit or revoke article 50. This is the kind of black and white decision at which she excels.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 21, 2019 14:13:24 GMT
Its starting to look like Mrs May might be expecting her deal to fail How could she expect anything else?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 21, 2019 14:20:29 GMT
Looks like the French are indeed playing hard ball. This gov has really pissed them off now (and Macron knows that putting one up Les Anglais is a good French electoral strategy). All outcomes are still open. There is a possibility that the French could say that they've had enough. This would force Theresa May to choose hard WTO Brexit or revoke article 50. This is the kind of black and white decision at which she excels. I laughed hard at this.
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Mar 21, 2019 14:43:42 GMT
IFISAcava a genuine question if I may. You've been consistent in both saying and implying that no deal brexit will never happen because MP's won't let it happen. Lets assume MV3 takes place Mon or Tue and is rejected by a large margin (or is blocked by the speaker), and the position agreed by the EU this weekend is no extension unless WA is approved, what do you believe is the most likely (short term) outcome ?
To me there appears to be three possibilities - leave as planned 11pm 29th, emergency mid-week EU summit and long extension offered (not requested by HMG but then approved by vote of MPs), MP's vote and approve revokation of art. 50. (I've omitted MV4, MV5 etc as being mere steps towards the end point)
Why would MPs vote to revoke Article 50? Who would offer such a vote? They all voted to trigger it so they can't change their miinds now. In particular the Court has said you can revoke once but that's it. It would actually be less unattractive to exit the EU under any conditions and later try to rejoin than to commit to staying having used our single 'Get out of Jail Card'. (Then there's the complete democratic outrage of such a maneouvre...)
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 21, 2019 14:54:14 GMT
IFISAcava a genuine question if I may. You've been consistent in both saying and implying that no deal brexit will never happen because MP's won't let it happen. Lets assume MV3 takes place Mon or Tue and is rejected by a large margin (or is blocked by the speaker), and the position agreed by the EU this weekend is no extension unless WA is approved, what do you believe is the most likely (short term) outcome ?
To me there appears to be three possibilities - leave as planned 11pm 29th, emergency mid-week EU summit and long extension offered (not requested by HMG but then approved by vote of MPs), MP's vote and approve revokation of art. 50. (I've omitted MV4, MV5 etc as being mere steps towards the end point)
Why would MPs vote to revoke Article 50? Who would offer such a vote? They all voted to trigger it so they can't change their miinds now. In particular the Court has said you can revoke once but that's it. It would actually be less unattractive to exit the EU under any conditions and later try to rejoin than to commit to staying having used our single 'Get out of Jail Card'. (Then there's the complete democratic outrage of such a maneouvre...) Yes they can. We do live in democracy, right?
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Mar 21, 2019 15:10:39 GMT
Why would MPs vote to revoke Article 50? Who would offer such a vote? They all voted to trigger it so they can't change their miinds now. In particular the Court has said you can revoke once but that's it. It would actually be less unattractive to exit the EU under any conditions and later try to rejoin than to commit to staying having used our single 'Get out of Jail Card'. (Then there's the complete democratic outrage of such a maneouvre...) Yes they can. We do live in democracy, right? Apparently not. Squeaky wheel gets the oil society maybe?
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 21, 2019 15:14:16 GMT
IFISAcava a genuine question if I may. You've been consistent in both saying and implying that no deal brexit will never happen because MP's won't let it happen. Lets assume MV3 takes place Mon or Tue and is rejected by a large margin (or is blocked by the speaker), and the position agreed by the EU this weekend is no extension unless WA is approved, what do you believe is the most likely (short term) outcome ?
To me there appears to be three possibilities - leave as planned 11pm 29th, emergency mid-week EU summit and long extension offered (not requested by HMG but then approved by vote of MPs), MP's vote and approve revokation of art. 50. (I've omitted MV4, MV5 etc as being mere steps towards the end point)
Why would MPs vote to revoke Article 50? Who would offer such a vote? They all voted to trigger it so they can't change their miinds now. In particular the Court has said you can revoke once but that's it. It would actually be less unattractive to exit the EU under any conditions and later try to rejoin than to commit to staying having used our single 'Get out of Jail Card'. (Then there's the complete democratic outrage of such a maneouvre...) MPs will, if pesented with an amendable motion, vote next week to take control of commons business from Leadsom/Government (the Benn/Cooper/Letwin/Boles ammendment) and once achieved they control what motions are put before the commons.
Vicky Ford (Tory MP for Chelmsford) made a good point in the emergency debate yesterday - she was a MEP candidate in 2009 and described the difficulties of campaigning in the immediate aftermath of the expenses storm, and the lack of support from MPs at that time for fear of the doorstep reaction. She asked "Could you imagine campaigning now for the 2019 Euro elections ?". Take this point, and the reports that MPs are being advised to take taxis home to minimize potential for violent attacks against them, and you come to the conclusion that MPs won't vote to revoke article 50 lightly. But if they do, is the executive (i.e. T. May) even obliged to act, I don't think so.
Whilst the EU have hinted this afternoon that post a MV3 rejection an emergency summit would be convened, any offer of a long extension would be conditional on an in/out referendum. Even if MPs vote to agree to this, is the executive (i.e. T. May) even obliged to act, I don't think so.
After last nights TV statement, May herself only has three options 1. Get WA passed next week 2. Decide to allow no deal 3. Resign and let David Liddington implement the commons will (revoke if so voted on, long extension + referendum if offered and so voted on) if cabinet agree with commons.
For now, I suspect David Liddington is going to be the one left holding the baby next Friday.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 21, 2019 15:37:42 GMT
I'd better look up who David Liddington actually is.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 21, 2019 16:29:32 GMT
I'd better look up who David Liddington actually is. David Lidington. The next ex-PM, after May?
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aju
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Post by aju on Mar 21, 2019 17:03:03 GMT
This whole thread is starting to resemble "War and Peace" in more ways than one.
Leo (Lev) is rocking in his grave at the thought of this mess.
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aju
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Post by aju on Mar 21, 2019 17:11:13 GMT
I see the petitions website is down again, it says probably removing the "Revoke article 50" one as it got too many votes.
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