angrysaveruk
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Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jan 1, 2019 22:43:53 GMT
Would be interesting to hear what peoples outlook for 2019 is. In my opinion we are entering a time of high risk, Brexit, EU collapse, US/China tradewar and risk of a large scale conflict in the middle east (possibly involving Iran). I cant see many positives on the horizon to be honest, but then again I am a Bear by nature.
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macq
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Post by macq on Jan 1, 2019 23:42:48 GMT
its always hard to know what events may trigger across the world and how bad they will impact but you get the feeling there is always something happening.If i was to only include a few things from my lifetime there would be many parallels with today. The Cuban missile crisis,big social changes of the 60's,the start of trouble's in Ireland,Vietnam war,Nixon in the US,The Labour govt and union's in the UK,Britain joins the common market,The 3 day week/power cuts etc and the winter of discontent,rampant inflation,the stock market crash in the late 80's,the Gulf war and more then a few civil wars,the rise of terrorism,Maggie and the miners strike,oil wars,Berlin Wall. And that's just off the top of my head but at least i'm not as worried by brexit after writing that lot  |
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jan 1, 2019 23:57:48 GMT
Would be interesting to hear what peoples outlook for 2019 is. In my opinion we are entering a time of high risk, Brexit, EU collapse, US/China tradewar and risk of a large scale conflict in the middle east (possibly involving Iran). I cant see many positives on the horizon to be honest, but then again I am a Bear by nature. All that stuff is priced in and not particularly relevant. Outlook - somewhere between stable and bullish. Investing can be scary, make sure you have the required emotional resilience before jumping on the roller coaster
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 2, 2019 2:48:54 GMT
Gloomy with no chance of sunshine 🌞
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Post by dan1 on Jan 2, 2019 9:01:26 GMT
Would be interesting to hear what peoples outlook for 2019 is. In my opinion we are entering a time of high risk, Brexit, EU collapse, US/China tradewar and risk of a large scale conflict in the middle east (possibly involving Iran). I cant see many positives on the horizon to be honest, but then again I am a Bear by nature. All that stuff is priced in and not particularly relevant. Outlook - somewhere between stable and bullish. Investing can be scary, make sure you have the required emotional resilience before jumping on the roller coasterI find it interesting, if not concerning, that P2P is attractive for the apparent steady income it provides. Many of those who invest heavily in P2P wouldn't touch the stock market because of the volatility which they equate with risk whereas in P2P risk is hidden and only realised on suspension/default.
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angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jan 2, 2019 11:30:24 GMT
Would be interesting to hear what peoples outlook for 2019 is. In my opinion we are entering a time of high risk, Brexit, EU collapse, US/China tradewar and risk of a large scale conflict in the middle east (possibly involving Iran). I cant see many positives on the horizon to be honest, but then again I am a Bear by nature. All that stuff is priced in and not particularly relevant. Outlook - somewhere between stable and bullish. Investing can be scary, make sure you have the required emotional resilience before jumping on the roller coaster They might be priced into the stock market but I am not sure they are priced into P2P returns.
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Post by davee39 on Jan 2, 2019 12:02:37 GMT
Since the forum does not have a dislike button.
One positive from the looming Brexit disaster might be a JC Government.
Although many of his ideas are witless (eg renationalising Royal Mail), there will be a boost to incomes and spending as Austerity is replaced by fairer taxation. There should also be a major boost to housebuilding (with resulting lower house prices) and possibly to manufacturing. The North will benefit at the cost of the London elite.
Another year of the Tory right really would be a nightmare in 2019.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Jan 2, 2019 12:04:22 GMT
All that stuff is priced in and not particularly relevant. Outlook - somewhere between stable and bullish. Investing can be scary, make sure you have the required emotional resilience before jumping on the roller coaster They might be priced into the stock market but I am not sure they are priced into P2P returns. Agreed. Risks can only be priced in if those setting the prices have a good level of knowledge, and I suspect that a lot of the pricing in P2P comes effectively from lenders who know nothing and care less - present company excepted, of course!
I wonder what percentage of the lent funds in the big platforms comes from lenders who have literally no idea what they are doing?
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jan 2, 2019 14:58:41 GMT
Since the forum does not have a dislike button. One positive from the looming Brexit disaster might be a JC Government. Although many of his ideas are witless (eg renationalising Royal Mail), there will be a boost to incomes and spending as Austerity is replaced by fairer taxation. There should also be a major boost to housebuilding (with resulting lower house prices) and possibly to manufacturing. The North will benefit at the cost of the London elite. Another year of the Tory right really would be a nightmare in 2019. Lol at fairer taxation. I and most of my colleagues have had to cut back on hours and decline much required additional work because of tax rates 60 - 140% ( yep that is not a typo, it’s to do with pension tapering on defined benefit pensions)
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Post by nesako on Jan 2, 2019 15:27:03 GMT
Since the forum does not have a dislike button. One positive from the looming Brexit disaster might be a JC Government. Although many of his ideas are witless (eg renationalising Royal Mail), there will be a boost to incomes and spending as Austerity is replaced by fairer taxation. There should also be a major boost to housebuilding (with resulting lower house prices) and possibly to manufacturing. The North will benefit at the cost of the London elite. Another year of the Tory right really would be a nightmare in 2019. Lol at fairer taxation. I and most of my colleagues have had to cut back on hours and declining much required additional work because of tax rates 60 - 140% ( yep that is not a typo, it’s do with pension tapering on defined benefit pensions) I had recently read analysis on this... pretty much 100% tax between 118 - 170K earnings with marginal Tax rate going over 100% between £118,800 - £122,600. It is really unfair for someone working double shifts, especially NHS surgeons who are now declining to work any overtime due to there being no financial gain to do so (well, there is a higher pension in the end...) causing longer NHS wait times etc. PS. I wish I was on 118K a year though, this is really mostly affecting more senior staff
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2019 15:48:03 GMT
If we look back carefully since 1945 everything just gets better and better. While you see the efficiency gains that occur every few years you begin to assume they are the norm and feel unsatisfied as not being as good as a golden age of your memory.
I am generally positive. Despite having a lunatic in charge of the world's most expensive military organisation we have not started a major world war. Despite divorcing our most logical trading partners we have not entered into a trade war and despite having a paranoid population deluded by their Russian leader we have not started fighting over the Baltic states.
So generally positive.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 2, 2019 16:10:25 GMT
...
I am generally positive. Despite having a lunatic in charge of the world's most expensive military organisation we have not started a major world war. Despite divorcing our most logical trading partners we have not entered into a trade war and despite having a paranoid population deluded by their Russian leader we have not started fighting over the Baltic states.
...
Yet.....
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jan 2, 2019 16:18:55 GMT
Another year of the Tory right really would be a nightmare in 2019. Be nice if we had a Tory party that was even marginally to the right economically (currently highest tax take for decades). Be far worse if we get Labour in.
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angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jan 2, 2019 16:51:04 GMT
Since the forum does not have a dislike button. One positive from the looming Brexit disaster might be a JC Government. Although many of his ideas are witless (eg renationalising Royal Mail), there will be a boost to incomes and spending as Austerity is replaced by fairer taxation. There should also be a major boost to housebuilding (with resulting lower house prices) and possibly to manufacturing. The North will benefit at the cost of the London elite. Another year of the Tory right really would be a nightmare in 2019. Although I am not a JC hater I do not want to see him running the country under any circumstances. Socialism did not work in the 20th Century and it is even less likely to work in the 21st Century.
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yangmills
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Post by yangmills on Jan 2, 2019 21:06:58 GMT
I had recently read analysis on this... pretty much 100% tax between 118 - 170K earnings with marginal Tax rate going over 100% between £118,800 - £122,600. It is really unfair for someone working double shifts, especially NHS surgeons who are now declining to work any overtime due to there being no financial gain to do so (well, there is a higher pension in the end...) causing longer NHS wait times etc. Small point but it's worth remembering that pension tax credits cost the government around £42bn/annum in lost tax revenue. This is more than the whole UK defence budget and also happens to be about the same size as the 2017/18 UK fiscal deficit. A vast proportion of this tax relief goes to the higher paid (40% or 45% taxpayers) or to corporations.
I've always found it rather strange that a Tory government was so ideologically obsessed by reducing the fiscal deficit somehow managed to miss this easy £40bn+ cut. Instead they decided to cut things like Disability Allowance, Incapacity Benefit, SureStart etc. It's almost like they were feathering the nests of certain voting demographics and didn't give a toss about poor people ...
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