iano
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Post by iano on May 28, 2023 2:39:03 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 28, 2023 8:45:07 GMT
It's remarkable, isn't it, the correlation between non-mainstream insights into the inaccuracy of established climate science... and certain other political angles and preferences.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on May 28, 2023 12:09:16 GMT
They probably also believe in high taxes and providing "gender affirmation" surgery to children. Doesn't mean they're right though. Still, I guess this is an extremely well trodden path that perhaps neither of us want to venture too far down.... ...but just suppose they are right? Given the massive global scientific weight behind the climate change projections, versus the seemingly few qualified detractors, it strikes me the science is pretty mature now and all pointing in one direction, so shouldn't we at least hear the message? Do we distrust experts to such a degree now that we just ignore them all? The real political headache is in striking the right balance between the expert scientific message and the expectations of modern living. Here we need adults to lead us, rather than a crop of sound bite, window dressing, adversarial parliamentarians. I am not hopeful... Yeah I used to broadly be of a similar view but the problem I have is that this subject has become heavily politised and scientists are not immune. I think it was the Covid era that reminded me of that.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 29, 2023 7:14:35 GMT
...but just suppose they are right? Given the massive global scientific weight behind the climate change projections, versus the seemingly few qualified detractors, it strikes me the science is pretty mature now and all pointing in one direction, so shouldn't we at least hear the message? Do we distrust experts to such a degree now that we just ignore them all? The real political headache is in striking the right balance between the expert scientific message and the expectations of modern living. Here we need adults to lead us, rather than a crop of sound bite, window dressing, adversarial parliamentarians. I am not hopeful... Yeah I used to broadly be of a similar view but the problem I have is that this subject has become heavily politised and scientists are not immune. I think it was the Covid era that reminded me of that. You're right, it is politicised. You're right, some scientists are not immune to that. You're right, there are strong parallels with Covid. There IS a well-funded, politically-motivated lobby going in the face of credibly established facts on a variety of topics. "Alternative facts", as the press secretary for one of their chief front-men referred to them when trying to deny the undeniable.
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Post by crabbyoldgit on May 29, 2023 12:02:48 GMT
Ok I believe climate change , just. But the energy argument has kind of moved on , the simple fact is that wind and solar is cheaper than oil and gas and getting cheaper still. Fossil fuel are a finite resource and as they get rarer and more expensive and difficult to extract will only increase in price. That's forgetting I am sat here surrounded by oil based items that make modern comfortable living possible, burning the best source of long chain molecules, sourced from a finite resource seems a bit dumb. So the big problem is storage , but if generation costs continue to fall relative to fossil fuels it may become economically viable to support a generating capacity 3 or 4 times peak demand on a good day so most demand can supported on a less windy overcast days. Then the size and problem of storage required becomes much much smaller.
Personally I do not think batteries are the solution , ok for a temporary 20 or 30 year bodge, but stored chemically as hydrogen or in some other form, or maybe these lifting big weights in good times may work. Can't find the article but one company was talking of lifting a big piston with compressed water then getting the piston fall pushing the water back through a turbine. Here the mind blowing thing ,I think I read a piston weight of of several million tons. Sorry if I got this wrong, I still can't quite believe it. How you would seal such a piston to it's bore is beyond me but the article said most technical solutions all ready existed, um 🤔 maybe.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on May 29, 2023 20:45:33 GMT
Ok I believe climate change , just. But the energy argument has kind of moved on , the simple fact is that wind and solar is cheaper than oil and gas and getting cheaper still. Fossil fuel are a finite resource and as they get rarer and more expensive and difficult to extract will only increase in price. That's forgetting I am sat here surrounded by oil based items that make modern comfortable living possible, burning the best source of long chain molecules, sourced from a finite resource seems a bit dumb. So the big problem is storage , but if generation costs continue to fall relative to fossil fuels it may become economically viable to support a generating capacity 3 or 4 times peak demand on a good day so most demand can supported on a less windy overcast days. Then the size and problem of storage required becomes much much smaller. Personally I do not think batteries are the solution , ok for a temporary 20 or 30 year bodge, but stored chemically as hydrogen or in some other form, or maybe these lifting big weights in good times may work. Can't find the article but one company was talking of lifting a big piston with compressed water then getting the piston fall pushing the water back through a turbine. Here the mind blowing thing ,I think I read a piston weight of of several million tons. Sorry if I got this wrong, I still can't quite believe it. How you would seal such a piston to it's bore is beyond me but the article said most technical solutions all ready existed, um 🤔 maybe. probably need more storage than that. and you need over provision. I have solar so can speak from experience, my system produced last year Jan 64, Feb 92, Mar 265, Apr 361, May 409, June 496, July 491, Aug 461, Sept 247, October 160, November 69, December 46 The system meets my needs from early March to mid October, but as you can see June-August I get 10 times as much out as December. the country unless we have massive storage has a problem if we get a cold foggy windless period of several days, we need more renewables including tidal, because when we move to EVs we will need to triple the current energy supply, heat pumps will make this worse. What this means is we need massive oversupply of each system. Another issue that needs addressing urgently is that the DNOs (electricity distributors ) are currently giving dates up to 15 years from now to connect new wind farms, etc to the grid
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iano
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Post by iano on May 29, 2023 22:33:19 GMT
probably need more storage than that. and you need over provision. I have solar so can speak from experience, my system produced last year Jan 64, Feb 92, Mar 265, Apr 361, May 409, June 496, July 491, Aug 461, Sept 247, October 160, November 69, December 46 The system meets my needs from early March to mid October, but as you can see June-August I get 10 times as much out as December. the country unless we have massive storage has a problem if we get a cold foggy windless period of several days, we need more renewables including tidal, because when we move to EVs we will need to triple the current energy supply, heat pumps will make this worse. What this means is we need massive oversupply of each system. Another issue that needs addressing urgently is that the DNOs (electricity distributors ) are currently giving dates up to 15 years from now to connect new wind farms, etc to the grid I absolutely agree, I also have Solar (without a battery or SEG at the moment) and see the same effects - although even in winter times, outside of using the kettle/electric shower it still looks as if my electricity meter has gotten stuck during the day (the night's less of an issue as I'm using nowhere near the same amount of power). Apologies if I'm repeating myself but the plan isn't to get to our average peak demand (~35GW) and stop there, but to vastly exceed it using multiple energy sources spread across multiple disparate locations. Offshore wind is one example which we're aiming for 50GW by 2030 (actively under, or at pre construction, stages) but with a 100GW pipeline (if we can get our act together on infrastructure - as keitha mentions). This is at a rate that was unprecedented 15 years ago. This is one energy source alone, factor in new onshore wind, solar (even excluding xlinks) and the upcoming nuclear plants over the next two decades and I see this as a hard fought, hard earned (and yes probably balls'd up to an extent but still extremely viable) win for the UK - we're doing well, we could certainly do better, but for god's sake keep up the good work.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 30, 2023 8:39:06 GMT
Personally I do not think batteries are the solution , ok for a temporary 20 or 30 year bodge, but stored chemically as hydrogen or in some other form, or maybe these lifting big weights in good times may work. Can't find the article but one company was talking of lifting a big piston with compressed water then getting the piston fall pushing the water back through a turbine. Here the mind blowing thing ,I think I read a piston weight of of several million tons. Sorry if I got this wrong, I still can't quite believe it. How you would seal such a piston to it's bore is beyond me but the article said most technical solutions all ready existed, um 🤔 maybe. Don't forget that already exists, and has been in operation for nearly forty years. Dinorwig was opened in 1984. Pumped hydro generation - a lake at the top of a hill in an abandoned slate quarry, turbines in a cavern excavated inside the hill, and then another lake at the bottom. 1.8GW peak output, albeit "only" 9GWh - so it can run at full-chat for about five hours - because it's designed for rapid infill when demand rises rapidly, from 0 to full output in 75 seconds.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 30, 2023 9:08:08 GMT
Ok I believe climate change , just. But the energy argument has kind of moved on , the simple fact is that wind and solar is cheaper than oil and gas and getting cheaper still. Fossil fuel are a finite resource and as they get rarer and more expensive and difficult to extract will only increase in price. That's forgetting I am sat here surrounded by oil based items that make modern comfortable living possible, burning the best source of long chain molecules, sourced from a finite resource seems a bit dumb. So the big problem is storage , but if generation costs continue to fall relative to fossil fuels it may become economically viable to support a generating capacity 3 or 4 times peak demand on a good day so most demand can supported on a less windy overcast days. Then the size and problem of storage required becomes much much smaller. Personally I do not think batteries are the solution , ok for a temporary 20 or 30 year bodge, but stored chemically as hydrogen or in some other form, or maybe these lifting big weights in good times may work. Can't find the article but one company was talking of lifting a big piston with compressed water then getting the piston fall pushing the water back through a turbine. Here the mind blowing thing ,I think I read a piston weight of of several million tons. Sorry if I got this wrong, I still can't quite believe it. How you would seal such a piston to it's bore is beyond me but the article said most technical solutions all ready existed, um 🤔 maybe. This looks like it: heindl-energy.com/technical-concept/They cut around the rock (150m - 250m diameter) and leave it in place to form the incredibly heavy piston!
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on May 30, 2023 9:19:58 GMT
probably need more storage than that. and you need over provision. I have solar so can speak from experience, my system produced last year Jan 64, Feb 92, Mar 265, Apr 361, May 409, June 496, July 491, Aug 461, Sept 247, October 160, November 69, December 46 The system meets my needs from early March to mid October, but as you can see June-August I get 10 times as much out as December. the country unless we have massive storage has a problem if we get a cold foggy windless period of several days, we need more renewables including tidal, because when we move to EVs we will need to triple the current energy supply, heat pumps will make this worse. What this means is we need massive oversupply of each system. Another issue that needs addressing urgently is that the DNOs (electricity distributors ) are currently giving dates up to 15 years from now to connect new wind farms, etc to the grid I absolutely agree, I also have Solar (without a battery or SEG at the moment) and see the same effects - although even in winter times, outside of using the kettle/electric shower it still looks as if my electricity meter has gotten stuck during the day (the night's less of an issue as I'm using nowhere near the same amount of power). Apologies if I'm repeating myself but the plan isn't to get to our average peak demand (~35GW) and stop there, but to vastly exceed it using multiple energy sources spread across multiple disparate locations. Offshore wind is one example which we're aiming for 50GW by 2030 (actively under, or at pre construction, stages) but with a 100GW pipeline (if we can get our act together on infrastructure - as keitha mentions). This is at a rate that was unprecedented 15 years ago. This is one energy source alone, factor in new onshore wind, solar (even excluding xlinks) and the upcoming nuclear plants over the next two decades and I see this as a hard fought, hard earned (and yes probably balls'd up to an extent but still extremely viable) win for the UK - we're doing well, we could certainly do better, but for god's sake keep up the good work. my roof is pretty much east /west as is virtually every house in the village as they follow the valley contours, had it faced more southerly I think my winter output would be far greater. Planners and architects also need to take this into account with south and west roofs being clear of dormers etc, and solar should be a requirement on new builds. I do have a relatively small battery at 5.6kW capacity and 8 months of the year it's capable of getting me through the dark periods, although i'm planning on an expansion for economic reasons.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2023 9:55:51 GMT
Offshore wind is one example which we're aiming for 50GW by 2030 (actively under, or at pre construction, stages) but with a 100GW pipeline (if we can get our act together on infrastructure - as keitha mentions). This is at a rate that was unprecedented 15 years ago. In terms of 'green/renewable natural resources', offshore wind really should be viewed as the UKs superpower. We are a long, thin island, which gives us a massive coastline to landmass ratio, and we have excellent access to large areas of shallow, windy ocean. We are easily one of the best located nations on the entire planet for offshore wind.
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Post by bracknellboy on May 30, 2023 10:12:26 GMT
Ok I believe climate change , just. But the energy argument has kind of moved on , the simple fact is that wind and solar is cheaper than oil and gas and getting cheaper still. Fossil fuel are a finite resource and as they get rarer and more expensive and difficult to extract will only increase in price. That's forgetting I am sat here surrounded by oil based items that make modern comfortable living possible, burning the best source of long chain molecules, sourced from a finite resource seems a bit dumb. So the big problem is storage , but if generation costs continue to fall relative to fossil fuels it may become economically viable to support a generating capacity 3 or 4 times peak demand on a good day so most demand can supported on a less windy overcast days. Then the size and problem of storage required becomes much much smaller. Personally I do not think batteries are the solution , ok for a temporary 20 or 30 year bodge, but stored chemically as hydrogen or in some other form, or maybe these lifting big weights in good times may work. Can't find the article but one company was talking of lifting a big piston with compressed water then getting the piston fall pushing the water back through a turbine. Here the mind blowing thing ,I think I read a piston weight of of several million tons. Sorry if I got this wrong, I still can't quite believe it. How you would seal such a piston to it's bore is beyond me but the article said most technical solutions all ready existed, um 🤔 maybe. This looks like it: heindl-energy.com/technical-concept/They cut around the rock (150m - 250m diameter) and leave it in place to form the incredibly heavy piston! I've only read a small bit of this so far, but that is pretty mind blowing. Makes pumped storage solutions look like a nursery game. Is this still just a concept, or is it being built somewhere ?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 30, 2023 11:26:24 GMT
I've only read a small bit of this so far, but that is pretty mind blowing. Makes pumped storage solutions look like a nursery game. Is this still just a concept, or is it being built somewhere ? I assume just a concept. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near when they are undercutting the 'piston'.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on May 30, 2023 12:21:28 GMT
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Post by crabbyoldgit on May 30, 2023 13:36:31 GMT
Just done some sums, probably wrong but happy to be corrected. Piston weights of 17 million metric tonnes have been proposed, im rounding up to 18 million it makes the maths simpler. So if we allow the piston to fall 1 m in 1 hr and we ignore all losses the output could be 50mw. That's not a lot in the order of uk energy use. Seems we need truly huge weight lifted a long way to provide days of large energy storage. The challenge appears bigger than I thought.
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