r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 8, 2019 9:21:06 GMT
Disagree. The borrower does matter and very much so. Sure, it's unlikely any borrower is going to have a spotless credit check, but it's not always about the numbers. Knowing who the borrower is in all cases allows would-be investors to a) do their own sniff-test on the borrower's background b) know what other loans the borrower has on the same (or another, see below) platform and how they performed historically c) prevent over exposure to any single borrower, even when everything else checks out One of the several things I'd like FCA to mandate on all FS-like platforms is the clear identification of who the borrower is, and the unambiguous detailing of any current and previous loans. Borrower privacy? Sorry, imo, they forego that privilege when they ask lenders for a loan. If the quality of the asset is good Lucifer himself can be the borrower you know your money is secure. It is the nature of the property sector that asset values are open to interpretation over a wide range. Just watch homes under the hammer and valuations can vary by £100000 on a £400000 property. Also external factors can greatly change things from the start that have nothing to do with the borrower and that is why lending on any amount above the distressed sale values is fraught with risk. That is why even asset backed P2P lending is classed as high risk. You have to accept this and make your own judgment as to what loans you want to invest. With the obvious exceptions of a Garnet and fraudulent art loans and a few toy trains bling is a reasonable investment. That is why FS will stand by failing investments due to current market conditions and hold onto the assets themselves until better conditions prevail. That is why bling attracts a lower return reflecting the reduced risk Do you turn down a 30% LTV loan because the borrower previously did a few bad things ? The choice is yours but that assumes nobody ever reforms and all bad past deeds are their for all to see. I am sure we all have done things that were not typical that would adversely affect our current lives if the were known even though this n no way resembles the person you now are. That is why the actual asset should be the only unbiased thing that should be taken into consideration. Errors in valuations are an entirely different question not associated with the borrower as these are independent and if a problem then the appropriate actions should be taken. The identify of the borrower may be of use in assessing their net worth and likelihood of recovery were something to go wrong with the security held. That however is just an additional comfort as the asset should be sufficient to cover the loan. For someone who recently didn't even realise several large overdue loans that he holds are linked by the same borrower and, more concerningly, apparently doesn't even appreciate why that might be important, you talk a mighty big game god'o'hubris.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 12:51:40 GMT
Currently probably 60% of my current investments in FS are less than 30 days they are however still relatively well within my 24 month allowance and were all bought at 18 to>23% so take about a year before the increase % is affected by the possible interest on interest bought deficits OK, so cutting through the waffle, 60% of your current loan holdings are now too old to be traded and you're locked in until FS manage to renew / repay / recover them. Welcome to the world of FS zombie loans!! I wonder if you'll still be as sanguine about FS in 6 months' time, when that figure will have risen to 80%+ even if you carry on reinvesting loans that do repay, and 100% if you don't. I see you're already considering withdrawing all but your accumulated profit to date, so the penny is clearly starting to drop that your past FS flipping strategy is a busted flush. You dont seem to grasp the point tha arbitrary 6 month period has no meaning I take 24 months as reayment term. Fipping only makes the base rate more achievable. Flipping continues as long as there are loans for sale either by my using paybacks or sales or by injection of funds to allow me to maintain my position, I withdraw to use in my day to day living I have no wish to be part owner of FS by injecting more funds. When I do it in Welendus it just slows the whole market.
I am quite happy making the returns promised Tax free which means profit from flipping covers any lossses.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 13:00:54 GMT
The object there is when I gamble is not to win it is not to loose ( lose!)so you never chase a loss. I have never lost their either. I agree investment is about minimising losses rather than maximising gains without due care but sadly at least some, if not a lot, of FS investor are going to take a massive hit. Even Warren Buffet makes bad mistakes e.g. Tesco but he is only worth about $90 billion so he is clearly rubbish compared to this chap! The phrase when in a hole ... comes to mind I had Tesco shares and was compensated for my loss. " are going to take a massive hit " with that kind of insight you must be maing a fortune on stock market. The phrase "Take a massive hit" is ambiguous as the assets usually have value. The (investor) investors collectively may lose a lot but with prudent investment the overall affect on an individual should be minimal.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 8, 2019 13:05:33 GMT
OK, so cutting through the waffle, 60% of your current loan holdings are now too old to be traded and you're locked in until FS manage to renew / repay / recover them. Welcome to the world of FS zombie loans!! I wonder if you'll still be as sanguine about FS in 6 months' time, when that figure will have risen to 80%+ even if you carry on reinvesting loans that do repay, and 100% if you don't. I see you're already considering withdrawing all but your accumulated profit to date, so the penny is clearly starting to drop that your past FS flipping strategy is a busted flush. You dont seem to grasp the point tha arbitrary 6 monh period has no meaning I take 24 months as reayment term. Fipping only makes the base rate more achievable. Flipping continues as long as there are loans for sale either by my using paybacks or sales or by injection of funds to allow me to maintain my position, I withdraw to use in my day to day living I have no wish to be part owner of FS by injecting more funds. I am quite happ making the returns promised Tax free which means profit from flipping covers any lossses.
On the contrary, I understand entirely, although your arbitrary 24 months is much faster than FS have managed to date on pretty much every loan that's gone off the rails. The period that's critical to your strategy is actually 5 months: once an FS loan-part passes 5 months, you're stuck with it for the duration, which may be many years (if anything much comes back at all)
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 13:07:41 GMT
Currently ie. today I sold 25 parts probably 60% of my current investments in FS are less than 30 days they are however still relatively well within my 24 month allowance and were all bought at 18 to>23% so take about a year before the increase % is affected by the possible interest on interest bought deficits .. This is only slightly higher than previous years and reflects the changing markets.. As I mentioned the other factors of FS ie. No income tax and unlimited CGT write off makes the whole platform unique. If I require funds to buy current loans I merely add more funds at that time as required to be at the top of most of SM loans that are atypical. That means I supply sufficient money based on SM and PM availability to keep things ticking over the amount invested in each loan varies with cash flow but is maintained at constant % in each varying depending on wither the loan is a candidate for holding or flipping. The individual amount held to maturity is about 10% of that used for flipping so exposure to the riskiest part of holding a loan is minimised. Usually parts held are bought just before the become unavailable and are not part of the selling investment they are 100% sold previously and may not be bought again unless the margins are beneficial. With the current SM slow down and lack of new loans I have sufficient from sales to maintain poll positions. By quirk of fate it allows me to maintain maximum single investment per loan as selling easier as new investors wishing to dutifully Diversify require loans for their portfolio and I offer a discount. So win all round. I have no requirement to withdraw funds. I do however like to have my funds increase which they do a little at a time over a long period using the 8th wonder of the world compounding interest this soon becomes a substantial sum. I am nearing 100% ROI on the original sum I allocated. When that happens I may withdraw or transfer out all but my original amount so I am only using the “Free money” I used to do similar at the casinos. I would play till I made enough for a nice meal then stop. The object there is when I gamble is not to win it is not to loose so you never chase a loss. I have never lost their either. Again it took research luckily casinos provide statistics on roulette that I played and observation of live wheels made the gambling slightly less risky. I never risked more than I could afford to loose and at that time no more than £100 A good card counter has >51% chance of winning that’s why casinos ban them. I’m lucky enough to enjoy FS without the worry of requiring great liquidity. Overall no loss would be a satisfactory outcome with current interest paid that possibility s remote. I worked hard to get the money I have and one of the pleasures in life is doing things you enjoy. I have more pleasure than displeasure with FS should that change I will withdraw gracefully and find a new distraction. I can understand others that may not be in a similar position as myself find themselves worrying about things that they have no control over and get frustrated. Again I have managed to lead a nearly entirely stress free life by being able accept this and not allow things to affect my outlook until there is actual tangible things that can be dealt with. I would rather be told told that my best friend was in a crash 3 days ago but is now fine than being told 3 day prior that the were in a crash and there is nothing I could do to help. This would just make me feel bad and would add unnecessary stress to me. Telling me earlier is of no benefit to anyone. Accept current positions in FS and only allow concrete data with outcomes you can affect make any difference and the whole experience should be positive. If you only feel negative get out and stay out. A punter that never loses that is sheer fantasy I agree. But i am not a punter I take a lot of information into concideration and make an informed choice that overall has a positive outcome.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on May 8, 2019 13:10:15 GMT
Disagree. The borrower does matter and very much so. Sure, it's unlikely any borrower is going to have a spotless credit check, but it's not always about the numbers. Knowing who the borrower is in all cases allows would-be investors to a) do their own sniff-test on the borrower's background b) know what other loans the borrower has on the same (or another, see below) platform and how they performed historically c) prevent over exposure to any single borrower, even when everything else checks out One of the several things I'd like FCA to mandate on all FS-like platforms is the clear identification of who the borrower is, and the unambiguous detailing of any current and previous loans. Borrower privacy? Sorry, imo, they forego that privilege when they ask lenders for a loan. If the quality of the asset is good Lucifer himself can be the borrower you know your money is secure. It is the nature of the property sector that asset values are open to interpretation over a wide range. Just watch homes under the hammer and valuations can vary by £100000 on a £400000 property. Also external factors can greatly change things from the start that have nothing to do with the borrower and that is why lending on any amount above the distressed sale values is fraught with risk. That is why even asset backed P2P lending is classed as high risk. You have to accept this and make your own judgment as to what loans you want to invest. With the obvious exceptions of a Garnet and fraudulent art loans and a few toy trains bling is a reasonable investment. That is why FS will stand by failing investments due to current market conditions and hold onto the assets themselves until better conditions prevail. That is why bling attracts a lower return reflecting the reduced risk Do you turn down a 30% LTV loan because the borrower previously did a few bad things ? The choice is yours but that assumes nobody ever reforms and all bad past deeds are their for all to see. I am sure we all have done things that were not typical that would adversely affect our current lives if the were known even though this n no way resembles the person you now are. That is why the actual asset should be the only unbiased thing that should be taken into consideration. Errors in valuations are an entirely different question not associated with the borrower as these are independent and if a problem then the appropriate actions should be taken. The identify of the borrower may be of use in assessing their net worth and likelihood of recovery were something to go wrong with the security held. That however is just an additional comfort as the asset should be sufficient to cover the loan. Valuation accuracy to one side (especially as valuation accuracy was not the thrust of my post), would you prefer the FCA mandate that, on all 'self-select' platforms, the borrower is explicitly identified, or not? If not, why not? (Even when, in some utopian universe, assets are perfectly valued, what disadvantages would borrower identification bring?)
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on May 8, 2019 13:22:48 GMT
compared to what I make in FS I am!
As I have said before I think there is going to be a major short-term meltdown in the p2p market as I worry there are bad loans all over the placed and these are constantly flipped from p2p company to p2p company but sooner or later the music will stop - I think Turkey and Africa are good places to invest so looking into that.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 13:27:02 GMT
You dont seem to grasp the point tha arbitrary 6 monh period has no meaning I take 24 months as reayment term. Fipping only makes the base rate more achievable. Flipping continues as long as there are loans for sale either by my using paybacks or sales or by injection of funds to allow me to maintain my position, I withdraw to use in my day to day living I have no wish to be part owner of FS by injecting more funds. I am quite happ making the returns promised Tax free which means profit from flipping covers any lossses.
On the contrary, I understand entirely, although your arbitrary 24 months is much faster than FS have managed to date on pretty much every loan that's gone off the rails. The period that's critical to your strategy is actually 5 months: once an FS loan-part passes 5 months, you're stuck with it for the duration, which may be many years (if anything much comes back at all) Correct but as I always buy the atypical loan parts with large margins from the next seller I mange to offload all I buy during the flipping stage. If available at 4.5-5 month time slot at a good >18% I will buy an amount that I am willing to hold if not sold for an immediate profit.
It is quite amazing the number of loan parts that meet that criteria as those liable for tax try to maximise their returns and eliminate any risk.
Loans older than 730 days that i have yet to complete are tiny, currently the only one i have Whitehaven 3rd tranche - Renewal that reaches its 2 year limit in a fortnight, Total invested at that point and only partially recovered is £536.36 and will be written off it amounts to few days profit add the lost interest and it amounts to less than a weeks profit over the 2 years.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 13:31:51 GMT
compared to what I make in FS I am! As I have said before I think there is going to be a major short-term meltdown in the p2p market as I worry there are bad loans all over the placed and these are constantly flipped from p2p company to p2p company but sooner or later the music will stop - I think Turkey and Africa are good places to invest so looking into that. Having lived in the middle East for several years and engaging with the locals my conclusion is that the political situation in Turkey (see yesterdays vote in Istanbul debarcle) is too unstable for investment other than flipping their nice currancy.
I do invest in P2P in africa with lendwithcare.org but that is a non-profit making exercise.
When the meltdown comes if it does I will switch and buy up all those substantially discounted properties. (Too Flip of course)
For every loss someone makes a profit. I will endevour to make that person me.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 8, 2019 13:41:51 GMT
On the contrary, I understand entirely, although your arbitrary 24 months is much faster than FS have managed to date on pretty much every loan that's gone off the rails. The period that's critical to your strategy is actually 5 months: once an FS loan-part passes 5 months, you're stuck with it for the duration, which may be many years (if anything much comes back at all) Correct but as I always buy the atypical loan parts with large margins from the next seller I mange to offload all I buy during the flipping stage. If available at 4.5-5 month time slot at a good >18% I will buy an amount that I am willing to hold if not sold for an immediate profit.
It is quite amazing the number of loan parts that meet that criteria as those liable for tax try to maximise their returns and eliminate any risk.
Loans older than 730 days that i have yet to complete are tiny, currently the only one i have Whitehaven 3rd tranche - Renewal that reaches its 2 year limit in a fortnight, Total invested at that point and only partially recovered is £536.36 and will be written off it amounts to few days profit add the lost interest and it amounts to less than a weeks profit over the 2 years.
I presume you realise that the “>18%” rate displayed on such 4.5-5 months loans is illusory, only correct if the loan actually repays on the due date (which FS loans almost never do). As soon as the loan goes late, you’re accruing interest at the same 12-13% as everyone else. I fear you’ll come to regret buying into such loans for the siren lure of an extra 1% discount (max). I certainly do: lending via a company, so unable to pull the FS tax-dodging lever, it briefly seemed an attractive option to boost returns. Big mistake.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 13:47:41 GMT
If the quality of the asset is good Lucifer himself can be the borrower you know your money is secure. It is the nature of the property sector that asset values are open to interpretation over a wide range. Just watch homes under the hammer and valuations can vary by £100000 on a £400000 property. Also external factors can greatly change things from the start that have nothing to do with the borrower and that is why lending on any amount above the distressed sale values is fraught with risk. That is why even asset backed P2P lending is classed as high risk. You have to accept this and make your own judgment as to what loans you want to invest. With the obvious exceptions of a Garnet and fraudulent art loans and a few toy trains bling is a reasonable investment. That is why FS will stand by failing investments due to current market conditions and hold onto the assets themselves until better conditions prevail. That is why bling attracts a lower return reflecting the reduced risk Do you turn down a 30% LTV loan because the borrower previously did a few bad things ? The choice is yours but that assumes nobody ever reforms and all bad past deeds are their for all to see. I am sure we all have done things that were not typical that would adversely affect our current lives if the were known even though this n no way resembles the person you now are. That is why the actual asset should be the only unbiased thing that should be taken into consideration. Errors in valuations are an entirely different question not associated with the borrower as these are independent and if a problem then the appropriate actions should be taken. The identify of the borrower may be of use in assessing their net worth and likelihood of recovery were something to go wrong with the security held. That however is just an additional comfort as the asset should be sufficient to cover the loan. For someone who recently didn't even realise several large overdue loans that he holds are linked by the same borrower and, more concerningly, apparently doesn't even appreciate why that might be important, you talk a mighty big game god'o'hubris. I never acclaim to act with hubris just use the tools available to give the best outcome. As for the loans by the same borrower you are correct but as I also said it is the asset that matters. Factors outwith the borrowers control would still affect the assets were they to be owned by different people. The amount invested and held in the loans would still fall within my limits and even taking as a single investment potential reduced return is still within accectable limits overall.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 13:57:41 GMT
Correct but as I always buy the atypical loan parts with large margins from the next seller I mange to offload all I buy during the flipping stage. If available at 4.5-5 month time slot at a good >18% I will buy an amount that I am willing to hold if not sold for an immediate profit.
It is quite amazing the number of loan parts that meet that criteria as those liable for tax try to maximise their returns and eliminate any risk.
Loans older than 730 days that i have yet to complete are tiny, currently the only one i have Whitehaven 3rd tranche - Renewal that reaches its 2 year limit in a fortnight, Total invested at that point and only partially recovered is £536.36 and will be written off it amounts to few days profit add the lost interest and it amounts to less than a weeks profit over the 2 years.
I presume you realise that the “>18%” rate displayed on such 4.5-5 months loans is illusory, only correct if the loan actually repays on the due date (which FS loans almost never do). As soon as the loan goes late, you’re accruing interest at the same 12-13% as everyone else. I fear you’ll come to regret buying into such loans for the siren lure of an extra 1% discount (max). I certainly do: lending via a company, so unable to pull the FS tax-dodging lever, it briefly seemed an attractive option to boost returns. Big mistake. If you look at previous posts this is taken into concideration only after about a year is the rate reduced to the 12-15% base rate. Those returning after a couple of months late or ontime iron out the returns to 1-5% APR above base rate. again OVERALL the returns are equal or higher than a perfectly performing loan paying back on time. Dan1 has statistics showing payback times.
I have no problem people selling before the end and leaving this portion of the market to those willing to take on the risks.
The corporation tax can be avoided also, PM for details
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 13:59:23 GMT
I agree. But i am not a punter I take a lot of information into consideration and make an informed choice that overall has a positive outcome. I think you have missed out the word " HOPEFULLY " before a positive outcome. To date nobody has shown otherwise
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 8, 2019 14:10:46 GMT
I presume you realise that the “>18%” rate displayed on such 4.5-5 months loans is illusory, only correct if the loan actually repays on the due date (which FS loans almost never do). As soon as the loan goes late, you’re accruing interest at the same 12-13% as everyone else. I fear you’ll come to regret buying into such loans for the siren lure of an extra 1% discount (max). I certainly do: lending via a company, so unable to pull the FS tax-dodging lever, it briefly seemed an attractive option to boost returns. Big mistake. If you look at previous posts this is taken into concideration only after about a year is the rate reduced to the 12-15% base rate. Those returning after a couple of months late or ontime iron out the returns to 1-5% APR above base rate. again OVERALL the returns are equal or higher than a perfectly performing loan paying back on time. Dan1 has statistics showing payback times.
I have no problem people selling before the end and leaving this portion of the market to those willing to take on the risks.
The corporation tax can be avoided also, PM for details
As I said earlier, let’s see if you’re still singing the same tune in 6-12 months’ time 😂
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 8, 2019 14:11:00 GMT
If the quality of the asset is good Lucifer himself can be the borrower you know your money is secure. It is the nature of the property sector that asset values are open to interpretation over a wide range. Just watch homes under the hammer and valuations can vary by £100000 on a £400000 property. Also external factors can greatly change things from the start that have nothing to do with the borrower and that is why lending on any amount above the distressed sale values is fraught with risk. That is why even asset backed P2P lending is classed as high risk. You have to accept this and make your own judgment as to what loans you want to invest. With the obvious exceptions of a Garnet and fraudulent art loans and a few toy trains bling is a reasonable investment. That is why FS will stand by failing investments due to current market conditions and hold onto the assets themselves until better conditions prevail. That is why bling attracts a lower return reflecting the reduced risk Do you turn down a 30% LTV loan because the borrower previously did a few bad things ? The choice is yours but that assumes nobody ever reforms and all bad past deeds are their for all to see. I am sure we all have done things that were not typical that would adversely affect our current lives if the were known even though this n no way resembles the person you now are. That is why the actual asset should be the only unbiased thing that should be taken into consideration. Errors in valuations are an entirely different question not associated with the borrower as these are independent and if a problem then the appropriate actions should be taken. The identify of the borrower may be of use in assessing their net worth and likelihood of recovery were something to go wrong with the security held. That however is just an additional comfort as the asset should be sufficient to cover the loan. Valuation accuracy to one side (especially as valuation accuracy was not the thrust of my post), would you prefer the FCA mandate that, on all 'self-select' platforms, the borrower is explicitly identified, or not? If not, why not? (Even when, in some utopian universe, assets are perfectly valued, what disadvantages would borrower identification bring?) I'm all for getting as much information as possible so that emotion and personal bias can be removed from the decision making process.
In my younger ZX80 days I used to write computer card game simulations. It always surprised me at the amount of effort you needed to eliminate errors from the human players and the efficiency of the decision making in the computer sub routines that worked on logic rather than empirical data that pollutes the human decision making process.
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