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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2019 19:02:33 GMT
There are two issues here, one is strategy and the other is share price. While TC claim they have a strategy they do not have a unique clear strategy. Hence they need certain tactical advantages to enhance that strategy. I see no tactical advantages, their currency is in free fall their suppliers take euros and their customers spend sterling which Brexit is destroying. They are shot as a business. Their debt is out of control and they can't afford it despite low rates.
SP will only recover if some fool thinks it is cheaper to buy this sorry mess now rather than wait for admin .
Recommend you read Porter.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 21, 2019 21:57:12 GMT
There are two issues here, one is strategy and the other is share price. While TC claim they have a strategy they do not have a unique clear strategy. Hence they need certain tactical advantages to enhance that strategy. I see no tactical advantages, their currency is in free fall their suppliers take euros and their customers spend sterling which Brexit is destroying. They are shot as a business. Their debt is out of control and they can't afford it despite low rates. SP will only recover if some fool thinks it is cheaper to buy this sorry mess now rather than wait for admin . Recommend you read Porter. Aberdeen fund is probably a fool then as they've just bought 11 millions pound shares for 6% stake on the company last friday: www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/TCG/14082160.htmlYes they are crumbling under debt and the environment is very poor. Brexit is hammering the whole travel industry and more. It is causing bankrupcy as well (flybe, british steel ..) They will have enough cash to get by the summer as this is when they make money. And the next quarter report may increase share price as it will show profit... I agree it's a bit a gamble and they may fold if they don't sell the airline. But if they do at good price (> £1 billion), the stock will worth 3-5X more. Who is Porter?
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Post by samford71 on May 21, 2019 22:15:21 GMT
Thomas Cook corporate bonds are trading with very material default risk. Their Euro-denominated 6.25% Jun-2022 bond ended the day at a price of 39.9 and a yield of 43.60%. It's really not a good sign when the yield is greater than the price!
The business has a poorly chosen capital structure, with their only two bond issues too close in maturity (2022 and 2023) and totalling Euro1.15bn. The rollover risk is high. That said, if the Company could get a large rights issue away or sell some part of the business to repay this debt, it could see the bonds massively rerated. It might be a bloodbath for the ordinary shareholders though.
On the positive side, expect Wisealpha to have two new bonds to offer on their platform any day now ...
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 21, 2019 22:47:25 GMT
Woah there horsey...
Look cwah old friend, I admire your determined display of boldness that would make even Theresa May proud... cwah voted Thomas Cook and so Thomas Cook is what cwah shall deliver and there shall not be a second Thomas Cook referendum
However, perhpas I could I discreetly invite you to take a little longer than 30 seconds when reading the particular document to which you refer ?
There were at least three items in there that caught my attention as, shall we say, not entirely fitting your summary description ?
The main one being that they previously held 7.32% so have actually reduced their holding to 6%?
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 21, 2019 23:14:29 GMT
Woah there horsey...
Look cwah old friend, I admire your determined display of boldness that would make even Theresa May proud... cwah voted Thomas Cook and so Thomas Cook is what cwah shall deliver and there shall not be a second Thomas Cook referendum
However, perhpas I could I discreetly invite you to take a little longer than 30 seconds when reading the particular document to which you refer ?
There were at least three items in there that caught my attention as, shall we say, not entirely fitting your summary description ?
Ok, the 3 changes on the 17th of april are Standard Life Aberdeen plc Decrease from 7.32% to 5.98% Standard Life Investments (Holdings) Limited Decrease from 5.89% to 4.95% Standard Life Investments Limited Decrease from 5.69% to 4.78% So a total decrease from these 3 institutions from 18.9% to 15.71%. So a 17% decrease of their total holdings?
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2019 7:09:17 GMT
Michael Porter is the classic author on business strategy, Harvard professor.
Other authors exist.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 22, 2019 8:18:56 GMT
I've put a stop loss at £11.6p. So £1000 loss is the maximum I'd loose here.... hopefully not! Especially because it may bounce up just after
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Post by gravitykillz on May 22, 2019 8:48:08 GMT
Thomas cook currently trading at 12.5p.
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Post by gravitykillz on May 22, 2019 8:50:36 GMT
Metro bank has been rocketing over the last few days. Oh yea of little faith. I will sell my small holding at £8 and buy Vodafone!
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Post by gravitykillz on May 22, 2019 8:53:31 GMT
Thomas cook reminds me of flybe. That was a business that lost investors almost all the value of their equity. Travel sector is only for the bravest!
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 22, 2019 9:04:57 GMT
So a total decrease from these 3 institutions from 18.9% to 15.71%. So a 17% decrease of their total holdings?
Something along those lines yes.
@ifisacava and you were correct in spotting the decrease on the second attempt.
See (7) "Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached" and (11) "Additional information".
But the other half of the story is (3) "Details of person subject to the notification obligation" and (9) "Information in relation to the person subject to the notification obligation", i.e. it is not Aberdeen buying/selling in this sort of disclosure, but them acting in a role on behalf of something else.
A bit like when you see similar filings by large firms of stockbrokers for their nominee account. Its not the stockbroker taking or selling a posiiton, its the clients and the nominee is just acting as messenger.
In relation to Aberdeen, because I don't think they have a stockbroking arm, their actions probably do relate to their own funds. But I would caution that: (a) a company like Aberdeen has tens or hundreds of funds, and what you are seeing in group disclosures can often only be the net effect of the buying/selling going on within the funds themselves. (b) I would discourage "reading-into" things like this, but if you were, then strictly speaking, you would need to go read the published mandates of the funds concerned, because for all you know, they might only be buying/selling because they need to keep within the published mandate (a more simplistic example of this would be a FTSE 100 fund ... if company X operates a FTSE100 fund and company Y falls out of the FTSE, then by its mandate, company X would be obliged to sell company Y shares ... this may result in a regulatory notification if they hold sufficient shares, but it would be wholly incorrect to say "oh look X sold a big chunk of Y shares" ... well yes they did, but it was not an investment decision, it was a mandate decision ... i.e. they had no choice under the rules they set for the fund concerned).
So its a tricky one, but in a nutshell, don't loose track of the details !
Thank you. Very informative. Will look into all these points later.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 22, 2019 9:13:10 GMT
Metro bank has been rocketing over the last few days. Oh yea of little faith. I will sell my small holding at £8 and buy Vodafone! I actually just bought today a small amount of Metrobank because of the big raise trend. Although it's not a stock I'd keep long term due to its low profit (PE ratio: 24 even with stock price decreased 4 fold), start getting bitten from competitive mortgage market (Q1 2019 profit half Q1 2018 profit) and may be eaten long term by pure player (Starling, Revolut, etc) who be able to be much cheaper and have less overhead. Would probably sell around £800-850p as well And I'll try Freetrade instead of Interactive Investor as it's much cheaper for stock they already have. They do have Vodafone!
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 23, 2019 17:48:32 GMT
Damn my Stop loss triggered at £11.5p. Then a couple of hours after, news about potential purchase of the nordic airlines came up and it's back to £12.5p. Lost £1000. I shouldn't have put a Stop loss
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 23, 2019 18:09:06 GMT
Damn my Stop loss triggered at £11.5p. Then a couple of hours after, news about potential purchase of the nordic airlines came up and it's back to £12.5p. Lost £1000. I shouldn't have put a Stop loss Think of it as having saved £4000
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on May 23, 2019 18:09:11 GMT
Damn my Stop loss triggered at £11.5p. Then a couple of hours after, news about potential purchase of the nordic airlines came up and it's back to £12.5p. Lost £1000. I shouldn't have put a Stop loss [Easy to be wise after the event, I know, but I did consider posting the following when you posted about the £1k stop-loss, and then decided against it. As you've since mentioned other 'speculative' trades, I've changed my mind again.]
What you might want to consider for special situation trades or 'special sits' (or how about 'speshits'? Though not too much emphasis on the second syllable. ) is only 'bet' the amount of money you'd be wholly OK with losing and have no stop loss, but maybe place a sell order for 50% of the holding if the price doubles. Then ignore the stock for a period of time or until confirmation is received the sell order triggered or you read significant news (eg aircraft sale, funders pull out, whatever) and re-evaluate the numbers or whatever makes the situation 'special'. That way: 1) No quandaries on where (or whether) to place a stop loss 2) No regrets when you get stopped out and the price subsequently moves in your favour (whipsawing) 3) No danger of being 'gapped down' such that the loss greatly exceeds you anticipated 'maximum loss' -- very easily done on stocks in the not-many-pennies bracket.
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