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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2014 20:18:55 GMT
Well firstly you need to know it definitely isn't peer to peer. You're lending to firms who then use your money to lend to third parties.
Secondly, the elephant's already in the room: in a nutshell it equals debt.
Thirdly, it's a way for people driven from savings accounts but too fearful (or not rich enough, at £10 per trade) to run into the stock market where they're supposed to run, to speculate in high risk ventures another way. Keep running little sheeple, we gave you the signal with our centrally planned interest rates and price inflation targets!
So there you have it: peer to peer finance is debt, paid for with money you should be saving in a high interest bank account, made available to private companies who get all the profits and none of the risk thanks to you being shepherded in their direction.
YAY right? We're all so original and radical, ahead of the curve baby!
Can you feel the Soviet hand on your shoulder yet?
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Post by oldnick on Oct 20, 2014 21:59:36 GMT
Do you have a better solution? - plenty of detail and no paranoia please.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2014 22:09:56 GMT
Well with sound money (including but not limited to for example a gold standard) p2p would be a real improvement on retail banking, although with truly sound money there'd be no fractional reserve banking so retail bank accounts wouldn't pay interest but would rather be offered as fixed rate bonds with no risk (unless the bank fails). Right now though, p2p's not safer than bonds or stocks: it's about the same, and for the same reasons: debt mostly, funny-money also, and inflationary monetary policy and so on. All the usual stuff. What is any good? No clue. Without turning into a total libertarian cliché, probably something involving: - Some exposure (15%+-) to tangible assets (precious metals, artworks, ammunition if you have a license for it, single malts, etc.)
- Internationalisation: buy foreign stocks that are priced below book value, preferably in a country that either isn't printing money, or else has already crashed (eg. Italy) and where the stock market has a low cyclically adjusted overall price to earnings ratio; also resource stocks, so long as they meet the old-style value investing criteria
- Farmland somewhere where it won't be taxed into oblivion or confiscated
- Some long-term food supplies: not overkill, maybe 3 months, lasting at least five years into the future (raisins, tinned fish, etc.)
- Physical cash kept somewhere safe, in case of deflation (temporary or not)
- Invest in skills, stop consuming, clear any outstanding debts for yourself and your family; maybe take a second job while you can
- Learn how to defend yourself
lol I did warn you it might turn into a cliché What do you think though? I don't know any better than anyone else. You're a mod so you must be taking all this seriously on some level, which suggests you've given it serious thought. I'd value your insights too, and thanks for being so welcoming. It makes a nice change. Normally people get very protective of poor fragile old Dave Cameron and his chums.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,335
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Post by ilmoro on Oct 20, 2014 22:37:19 GMT
In most instances, you are not lending money to the P2P firms, it is segregated and presumably doesnt count in their accounts, they are just a channel to get your money to people or businesses. Thats why its peer to peer!
Yes, its debt, but debt makes the world go round. (Cash is debt - 'I promise to pay the bearer...')
Surely money in 'high' interest bank accounts is lent out by banks in the form of loans, mortgages and maybe high risk ventures, and therefore is equally ultimately debt. Unlike P2P you are lending your money to the bank, so the bank will absorb any losses and if they cant its is guarenteed (up to a certain amount) to be repaid by the government and in return for this lower risk of losing your money you get a minimal return in the meantime. If a P2P company goes bust, your loans still stand as they are not to the company and will be repaid as normal just with a different intermediary. Not really speculation, its based on a calculated assessment that the borrower will be able to repay based on their assets, earnings, track record etc.
The sheeple are the millions who stick their money in the same old bank because thats what they have always done and thats what the government encourages them to do!
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Post by oldnick on Oct 20, 2014 23:14:14 GMT
Well you've clearly not been reading my posts if you think I take life very seriously. However I will first deal with any plans you may have to survive some apocalyptic future by stocking up on sardines. There is no certainty that food for five years, or even fifty years, would be sufficient to tide you over till better times come around. You should buy sufficient working horses to form a viable breeding stock, learn to plough with them, and find some defendable land. Oh and have enough children to take over from you when your back gives out. Alternatively, just join the Amish community - how do you look with a beard? This all assumes that those not so far seeing as you don't descend on you like a swarm of locusts and eat your horses - and, possibly, you into the bargain. As you can guess, I don't buy into the Hollywood versions of 'the future', as it's unlikely you'll look that handsome at the end of a days ploughing and you certainly won't have the energy for all those tangled relationships. As for dealing with the real world; with age comes an acceptance of the imperfect. A fair society (communism with a small c) has been tried but humans are incapable of following the rules. Democracy seems to work best the further from the equator one lives. Dictatorships like it hot. We may imagine our society and financial system are irredeemably broken, but consider the millions who would happily swap places with you given the chance. You will have noticed I haven't gone into a detailed financial strategy yet, nor will I. You can make your own mistakes; there's nothing to learn from me on that score. All I will advise is that if you drive a car, let somebody go in front of you - it might be me! (and don't be cross if I don't acknowledge your kindness; I'm clinging on to the steering wheel with both hands as likely as not).
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Post by batchoy on Oct 21, 2014 7:49:34 GMT
Surely money in 'high' interest bank accounts is lent out by banks in the form of loans, mortgages and maybe high risk ventures, and therefore is equally ultimately debt. It actually starts earlier than that, any money you deposit with the bank ceases to be your money the moment you deposit it, you just have legal claim to it but it is to all intents and purposes a loan to the bank and therefore debt.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 11:21:41 GMT
In most instances, you are not lending money to the P2P firms, it is segregated and presumably doesnt count in their accounts, they are just a channel to get your money to people or businesses. Thats why its peer to peer! Yes, its debt, but debt makes the world go round. (Cash is debt - 'I promise to pay the bearer...') The sheeple are the millions who stick their money in the same old bank because thats what they have always done and thats what the government encourages them to do! Why do you think you're not lending money to the platform? You don't undertake bank transfers to the borrowers, you make the transfer to the platform. The platform then arranges for you to decide which companies receive funds. If you prefer psychologically to imagine that your money's kept in a separate compartment and then specifically lent to the borrowers you choose, that's not a problem as it makes no difference, but the opposite also makes no difference. In the end, the time you'll lose your money will be when the platform goes under because they can no longer pay their bills from interest received by them. Debt makes the world go round in the short term but in the long term it stops the world going round. The world can only go round when there's money to make that happen. Debt gives you more money today but it's predicated on the assumption that you'll either bring in more (somehow) in the future to pay it back with interest, or (more likely) you'll slow your consumption in the future. If you mean that debt is the sustainable path to prosperity, do you live that way in your personal finances? If so, how long have you been doing that? As to what the government encourages them to do, I'd say the evidence is for the opposite: the Bank Of England sets the rate of interest so it's down to them that you can no longer get a 4%+ fixed rate bond from your bank. I still have one with Scottish Widows that ends in 2017, paying 4%. That was in a way the best financial asset I ever bought, though of course it comes with a certain amount of risk: the Lloyds group is pretty shaky and I'm just gambling on two things: 1. They won't go bust before July 2017; 2. Dave Cameron would come good on his word and bail me out to the tune of £85k. Those are both high risk bets. The treasury and the BoE together then pursue a target for price inflation as measured by their various indices of the goods that people use. Currently the interest rate is at half a percent until at least next August and the price inflation target is 2%. That doesn't sound like encouragement to take out an ISA at 1.4% to me: it sounds like pretty firm nudging not to do that.
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Post by batchoy on Oct 21, 2014 11:33:17 GMT
In most instances, you are not lending money to the P2P firms, it is segregated and presumably doesnt count in their accounts, they are just a channel to get your money to people or businesses. Thats why its peer to peer! Yes, its debt, but debt makes the world go round. (Cash is debt - 'I promise to pay the bearer...') The sheeple are the millions who stick their money in the same old bank because thats what they have always done and thats what the government encourages them to do! Why do you think you're not lending money to the platform? You don't undertake bank transfers to the borrowers, you make the transfer to the platform. The platform then arranges for you to decide which companies receive funds. If you prefer psychologically to imagine that your money's kept in a separate compartment and then specifically lent to the borrowers you choose, that's not a problem as it makes no difference, but the opposite also makes no difference. In the end, the time you'll lose your money will be when the platform goes under because they can no longer pay their bills from interest received by them. Its dependent on the platform, with Bondora you have and have access to individual loan contracts with the borrower for every loan part, Bondora are just the management platform.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 11:37:19 GMT
Surely money in 'high' interest bank accounts is lent out by banks in the form of loans, mortgages and maybe high risk ventures, and therefore is equally ultimately debt. It actually starts earlier than that, any money you deposit with the bank ceases to be your money the moment you deposit it, you just have legal claim to it but it is to all intents and purposes a loan to the bank and therefore debt. Absolutely right. Unsecured debt at that. The only promise you have is from the taxpayer, up to £85k. After that, laws are in place already for "bail ins" (your cash deposit becomes shares in the company, valued at some fraction of your previous balance - in the case of Cyprus 17% (ie. -83%) I believe). There's nothing wrong with that in principle: it's just not what people in this country are used to and not what they necessarily think they're signing up for. The bigger problem with bank lending is that it's all fractional reserve funny-money. If you give them £1000, they can lend out £66000 (I think that's the target reserve figure, 3% - most banks are 'aiming for that' so it's most likely worse, maybe up to £90000). Even that isn't the full story though: in practice the actual debt is created at will, on the understanding that as it's paid back, those currency units are destroyed. In practice they often aren't. If you're inclined to think that sounds a lot like counterfeiting, I can only agree. What we need is sound money: a currency backed by tangible assets that cannot be produced at will by governments. The obvious choices have always been gold and silver for this, since the supply grows at a finite rate and cannot be effectively manufactured. A legally binding fiat cryptocurrency could work as well under conditions of government monopoly so long as no Richard Nixon comes along. For free market money, gold and silver are more or less unparalleled. The more you think about it, the more worrying our banking system becomes. The monetary stimulus programmes, shrouded in technical language, always amount to the same thing: the central bank creates units of currency then buys assets (often Treasury Bonds!!!) from banks. It's the Left's version of "trickle down", and like all forms of trickle down, nothing ever trickles down. Quite the contrary: the first receiver of the new inflation spends the currency units at their present value, but as those units percolate through the system in further trade, the currency supply recalculates to account for the goods and services in existence. That sounds arcane but it's not really. If the whole country has ten units of goods and services (I'm only using such aggregates as shorthand: of course goods and services aren't interchangeable and of equal fixed intrinsic value) and a hundred units of currency, then on the average people will pay ten units of currency for a unit of goods. Expand the money supply to 200 units of currency and that average price becomes 20, but the first person who gets the extra 10 units of currency can still buy at the old price. This is why banksters and government contractors and basically anyone else politically connected enough to be chosen for QE becomes so fabulously wealthy and at the same time why everyone else feels the purchasing power of their wages fall over time. (This is still simplistic and doesn't account for the velocity of money, but that's just further evidence for the same conclusion: as consumer debt stifles people's ability to consume, the velocity of money is reduced and the inflation remains primarily active in its earliest stages. This makes the banksters insanely wealthy but doesn't increase price 'inflation' in the short term. On the contrary it's entirely possible there'll be a price 'deflation'. (Excuse the scare quotes: the true meaning of inflation and deflation is changes to the money supply, rather than to prices. The scare quotes indicate everyday modern usage as basically the price level.) If that happens, governments and other huge debtors have a big problem because the value of their debt increases in terms of the purchasing power of the currency. They want the opposite: to inflate away their debts and default by stealth.) It's all very unpleasant and immoral. Generally speaking, societies that debase their money and live by a corrupt morality always end in catastrophic collapse and societal disaster.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 11:43:21 GMT
1. There is no certainty that food for five years, or even fifty years, would be sufficient to tide you over till better times come around. This all assumes that those not so far seeing as you don't descend on you like a swarm of locusts 2. As for dealing with the real world; with age comes an acceptance of the imperfect. A fair society (communism with a small c) has been tried but humans are incapable of following the rules. 3. Democracy seems to work best the further from the equator one lives. Dictatorships like it hot. We may imagine our society and financial system are irredeemably broken, but consider the millions who would happily swap places with you given the chance. 4.You will have noticed I haven't gone into a detailed financial strategy yet, nor will I. You can make your own mistakes; there's nothing to learn from me on that score. @1. Agreed 100% @2. There's nothing fair about theft, blindness and the worship of power @3. Agreed, there are worse things than to be robbed blind by Cameron's socialists. Then again there are worse things than being murdered, or even raped-then-murdered, or even tortured-raped-then-murdered. There are things worse than being tortured for decades, raped by hordes of barbarians, set on fire and made to sing songs from "Frozen" while they stream it live on the internet. If "it could be worse" is your moral standard, anything can get through. Please note that I haven't advocated non-payment of taxes, non-compliance with retarded regulations or violent revolution. We have no choice but to suffer. We do have a choice of whether to conclude that therefore it's moral. "Might makes right" is fine for the world of Transformers and the X-Men but that's not my dominant culture. @4. Very wise. For the record, I don't store any valuables at my house. I wouldn't trust the round here as far as I could kick them, which isn't very far: they're fat and violent.
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrianc on Oct 21, 2014 18:18:24 GMT
...though of course it comes with a certain amount of risk: the Lloyds group is pretty shaky and I'm just gambling on two things: 1. They won't go bust before July 2017; 2. Dave Cameron would come good on his word and bail me out to the tune of £85k. Those are both high risk bets. Just for reference, would you be so kind as to explain what you see as a low risk investment, then?
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james
Posts: 2,205
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Post by james on Oct 21, 2014 20:05:23 GMT
Sterling, you appear to be gambling that Sterling won't suffer massive devaluation that will make your £85,000 worthless. Surely you should have your money outside the UK now so that you won't be caught up in the inevitable capital controls if that starts to happen?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 20:29:37 GMT
Sterling, you appear to be gambling that Sterling won't suffer massive devaluation that will make your £85,000 worthless. Surely you should have your money outside the UK now so that you won't be caught up in the inevitable capital controls if that starts to happen? I know, it's nerve-racking. It's a five-year bond. I have no choice. I think it's 50/50 whether there'll even be a Scottish Widows in 2017 lol You're dead right. What seemed for a while like a very lucky piece of timing has turned into a high risk gamble. Makes the old axiom "learn from your mistakes" a bit hairy frankly. adrianc: "Just for reference, would you be so kind as to explain what you see as a low risk investment, then?" The above bullet-point list. Basically anything where your asset isn't simultaneously someone else's liability, so that you're not relying on their continued success in order to prosper. If you buy a Rembrandt then you're not taking a gamble on some third party doing well. (No I don't have fine art works or anything else of value in my house before anyone thinks to come a'hunting.) If you can't stretch to a Rembrandt then a handful of junk silver will do, or some diabetic cereal bars, pairs of shoes, bottles of Scotch etc. Basically if you bought a single malt once a month instead of dining out, you might be glad some day.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 20:41:29 GMT
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Post by oldnick on Oct 21, 2014 22:02:36 GMT
1. There is no certainty that food for five years, or even fifty years, would be sufficient to tide you over till better times come around. This all assumes that those not so far seeing as you don't descend on you like a swarm of locusts 2. As for dealing with the real world; with age comes an acceptance of the imperfect. A fair society (communism with a small c) has been tried but humans are incapable of following the rules. 3. Democracy seems to work best the further from the equator one lives. Dictatorships like it hot. We may imagine our society and financial system are irredeemably broken, but consider the millions who would happily swap places with you given the chance. 4.You will have noticed I haven't gone into a detailed financial strategy yet, nor will I. You can make your own mistakes; there's nothing to learn from me on that score. @1. Agreed 100% @2. There's nothing fair about theft, blindness and the worship of power @3. Agreed, there are worse things than to be robbed blind by Cameron's socialists. Then again there are worse things than being murdered, or even raped-then-murdered, or even tortured-raped-then-murdered. There are things worse than being tortured for decades, raped by hordes of barbarians, set on fire and made to sing songs from "Frozen" while they stream it live on the internet. If "it could be worse" is your moral standard, anything can get through. Please note that I haven't advocated non-payment of taxes, non-compliance with retarded regulations or violent revolution. We have no choice but to suffer. We do have a choice of whether to conclude that therefore it's moral. "Might makes right" is fine for the world of Transformers and the X-Men but that's not my dominant culture. @4. Very wise. For the record, I don't store any valuables at my house. I wouldn't trust the round here as far as I could kick them, which isn't very far: they're fat and violent. @2 Do you mean that you think the theory of communism has these negative traits, or that the way it has been practised is at fault? @3 I find it difficult to see through all the hyperbole to your actual viewpoint. @4 You must have a very compelling reason for living amongst people that you hold in such low regard. Or perhaps you regard yourself so highly that I would be considered by your standards? It's not really a very constructive point to be making even if you do believe it and doesn't advance the conversation at all. I'm picking up a vibe of anger and resentment from your posts on this forum and wonder why. I suspect you exist in the top ten or even one percent of this nations personal wealth brackets and, assuming you have your health and a long life ahead of you, have much to be grateful for. You exist in an imperfect system yes, but you could perhaps seek to extract more happiness from that situation than you now appear to do. Just a suggestion, not trying to shut you down or anything.
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