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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 6, 2020 15:50:46 GMT
Where did you get Brighton from ? That isn't currently showing in the BBC report. Guardian live blog - scroll down to 13:23 entry
wouldn't have had you down as a natural Guardian reader  Well spotted.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 6, 2020 15:57:43 GMT
Guardian live blog - scroll down to 13:23 entry wouldn't have had you down as a natural Guardian reader Well spotted. I don't understand why transferring the patient to the hospital in the Capital 😰
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corto
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Post by corto on Feb 6, 2020 17:00:06 GMT
The guardian also says that the person was not infected in China, but in a different Asian country.
Given there are only small numbers reported for any, that may well mean it's in the wild somewhere
(that was also suggested by the death case in the Philippines)
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Post by batchoy on Feb 6, 2020 17:52:58 GMT
I don't understand why transferring the patient to the hospital in the Capital 😰 They are being transferred to the Capital because it has two of very few specialist infectious disease units where the patient can be properly isloated. I beleive there is no such centre in Brighton and the units at Royal Free Hospital, and at Guy's and St Thomas' Trust are the closest.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Feb 6, 2020 19:46:20 GMT
I'm participating in an international pricing research project regarding a hypothetical coronavirus vaccine. Someone, somewhere wants to know how much people will cough up for it, how that's split by age/wealth/health demographics, and how likelihood of adoption and price threshold varies with perception of acquisition, death rate etc and how frequent & severe side effects of the vaccination might be. Lots of complex issues to unpick there, but in a nutshell there are as many parties who benefit from a negative spin as benefit from a positive one. I would place the British and Chinese governments on an even footing with regard to transparency and am no doubt a little biased due to being caught up with SARS whilst I was working in Beijing, but frankly the world is a bit nuts at the moment so I think it's sensible to be prepared for a couple of weeks of self-sufficiency in case it all kicks off. Which I don't think will happen, but if it does I won't be panicking.
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 6, 2020 20:37:09 GMT
but frankly the world is a bit nuts at the moment so I think it's sensible to be prepared for a couple of weeks of self-sufficiency in case it all kicks off. Which I don't think will happen, but if it does I won't be panicking. I think that may be good advice, not so much in case it "all kicks off" as I think in Europe we are a very long way from mass panic, but in case someone we have been in contact with becomes infected and we are told to self-isolate for 14 days. Those cases (like today's new one in the UK) involving business travel are perhaps a wake up call for those for whom international travel is a routine part of life, and those that work and socialise with them.
For many people online grocery shopping will solve much of the problem, but those dependent on refill prescriptions etc or out of the range of supermarket delivery services may need to think ahead about how they would approach a 2 week quarantine.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 6, 2020 21:02:25 GMT
The guardian also says that the person was not infected in China, but in a different Asian country. Given there are only small numbers reported for any, that may well mean it's in the wild somewhere (that was also suggested by the death case in the Philippines) BBC reports the person caught it in Singapore and is being treated at St Thomas's Hospital in London
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corto
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Post by corto on Feb 6, 2020 21:38:46 GMT
The guardian also says that the person was not infected in China, but in a different Asian country. Given there are only small numbers reported for any, that may well mean it's in the wild somewhere (that was also suggested by the death case in the Philippines) BBC reports the person caught it in Singapore and is being treated at St Thomas's Hospital in London
Which seems to suggests it is now spreading through secondary hubs. There were reports about progress with antibodies; a bit more time for the pharmacists would have been good. Given an incubation time of about a week numbers may be rising outside China soon.
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corto
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Post by corto on Feb 7, 2020 0:29:18 GMT
Given an incubation time of about a week numbers may be rising outside China soon. On Monday I read an interesting green paper by a data scientist. They were not an expert in virology, but rather presented some food for thought based upon the WHO daily numbers up to the point of publication. The long and short of it is that the projection is numbers growing until the end of Feb and then plateau and falling off. The degree of the projection's accuracy will largely rest on Sunday's numbers as this will be an indicator on how things are going with containment. Unable to post more on the topic as it was a closed distribution paper. Of course I took the document with the required pinch of salt given the author's lack of expertise in the topic of virology, however I thought it was an interesting perspective. End of Feb seems a very optimistic forecast. These guys see their peaks in April/May/June thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 7, 2020 5:51:34 GMT
Given an incubation time of about a week numbers may be rising outside China soon. On Monday I read an interesting green paper by a data scientist. They were not an expert in virology, but rather presented some food for thought based upon the WHO daily numbers up to the point of publication. The long and short of it is that the projection is numbers growing until the end of Feb and then plateau and falling off. The degree of the projection's accuracy will largely rest on Sunday's numbers as this will be an indicator on how things are going with containment. Unable to post more on the topic as it was a closed distribution paper. Of course I took the document with the required pinch of salt given the author's lack of expertise in the topic of virology, however I thought it was an interesting perspective. One of the Whistler blower in China who died yesterday after being infected with the Coronavirus, he did warned other doctors in China in late December 19. Looking the graphs from SARS in 2003, at least 3 months to reach plateau. Although this new virus is spreading faster than SARs, with the global effort, and latest intervention from all parties, we may see the plateau before Easter this year.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 7, 2020 6:19:24 GMT
John Hopkins University provide a handy (almost) real-time Coronavirus map hereUnlike the Olympics, which people usually follow for 14 days, this Coronaviralympics may be longer. At the moment, China in first place for most medals, Japan in 2nd place for confirmed cases. Would Tokyo 2020 Olympics be cancelled? 🤔
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 7, 2020 9:27:58 GMT
I'm participating in an international pricing research project regarding a hypothetical coronavirus vaccine. Someone, somewhere wants to know how much people will cough up for it ...ba-doom-tish... I'm on the "Meh" side of this. It's the flu. It's just a new strain, like the new strains every year - 5N1, Bird flu, SARS, <insert annual lurgy scare story here>. It's being compared to SARS, but AIUI it's a bit more infectious but a lot less fatal. We've got friends round the corner whose daughters both live and work in China. They came back for Xmas and NY, one of them with two small children... and they're now stuck here for the foreseeable. The kids' father is still in China. EVERYBODY in that house is getting to the point of booking them the first available flight back... There was a stroke of black humour genius, though, with the coach transfers from the evacuation flight to isolation... To use four Horseman coaches...
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 7, 2020 11:34:23 GMT
I'm on the "Meh" side of this. It's the flu. It's just a new strain, like the new strains every year - 5N1, Bird flu, SARS, <insert annual lurgy scare story here>. It's being compared to SARS, but AIUI it's a bit more infectious but a lot less fatal. I'm not convinced it is less fatal. SARS killed 9.6%. The 2% being bandied about for this new strain is stretching things IMHO, because that's the proportion of the cases currently reported. It's an odd measure to use while the number of cases is increasing exponentially. When those 2% first fell ill, there were perhaps only 2,000 infections. It's surely better to look at the binary outcome, survive vs. fatal. In SARS that ended up, as far as I can tell, 90.4% vs. 9.6%. So it's fair to quote 9.6% death rate. The John Hopkins page here tells us alongside the 638 coronavirus deaths there have been just 1678 who've recovered. That suggests the remaining 29,000-odd still currently infected can still go either way, and will presumably follow the same pattern. 638 deaths vs. 1678 recovered implies a death rate closer to 27% 😮. MERS was somewhere around that level. Edit: correcting spellchecker's 'coronary' to 'coronavirus'.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 7, 2020 12:58:08 GMT
I'm on the "Meh" side of this. It's the flu. It's just a new strain, like the new strains every year - 5N1, Bird flu, SARS, <insert annual lurgy scare story here>. It's being compared to SARS, but AIUI it's a bit more infectious but a lot less fatal. I'm not convinced it is less fatal. SARS killed 9.6%. The 2% being bandied about for this new strain is stretching things IMHO, because that's the proportion of the cases currently reported. It's an odd measure to use while the number of cases is increasing exponentially. When those 2% first fell ill, there were perhaps only 2,000 infections. It's surely better to look at the binary outcome, survive vs. fatal. In SARS that ended up, as far as I can tell, 90.4% vs. 9.6%. So it's fair to quote 9.6% death rate. The John Hopkins page here tells us alongside the 638 coronary deaths there have been just 1678 who've recovered. That suggests the remaining 29,000-odd still currently infected can still go either way, and will presumably follow the same pattern. 638 deaths vs. 1678 recovered implies a death rate closer to 27% 😮. MERS was somewhere around that level. I guess it depends how they define 'recovered', if they mean non-infectious and well enough to go home it is very different from over the worst but still recovering which might be 10 x more. Edit: It did worry me slightly that the Doctor that was one of the first to recognise a potential problem has just died from it, he was in his mid-thirties and I assume reasonably fit as a practising doctor.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 7, 2020 14:10:18 GMT
...... Edit: It did worry me slightly that the Doctor that was one of the first to recognise a potential problem has just died from it, he was in his mid-thirties and I assume reasonably fit as a practising doctor. What he said.
Yes, i was going to post something to same effect earlier today but work got in the way. Both particularly sad, but also I'd say potentially rather troubling. When did he actually catch it ? Is the incubation period really "up to 14 days" ? Did he really have (significant) underlying health conditions that made him vulnerable ? If he did, you have to suspect they were at the lower end of the spectrum of vulnerability.
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Well spotted.
