cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 7, 2020 14:24:08 GMT
...... Edit: It did worry me slightly that the Doctor that was one of the first to recognise a potential problem has just died from it, he was in his mid-thirties and I assume reasonably fit as a practising doctor. What he said.
Yes, i was going to post something to same effect earlier today but work got in the way. Both particularly sad, but also I'd say potentially rather troubling. When did he actually catch it ? Is the incubation period really "up to 14 days" ? Did he really have (significant) underlying health conditions that made him vulnerable ? If he did, you have to suspect they were at the lower end of the spectrum of vulnerability.
BBC1 lunchtime news suggested it may have been down to him having contact with multiple patients who were infected, thereby giving him a higher than normal initial dose of the virus.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 7, 2020 14:35:58 GMT
What he said.
Yes, i was going to post something to same effect earlier today but work got in the way. Both particularly sad, but also I'd say potentially rather troubling. When did he actually catch it ? Is the incubation period really "up to 14 days" ? Did he really have (significant) underlying health conditions that made him vulnerable ? If he did, you have to suspect they were at the lower end of the spectrum of vulnerability.
BBC1 lunchtime news suggested it may have been down to him having contact with multiple patients who were infected, thereby giving him a higher than normal initial dose of the virus. And apparently he may no longer be dead...
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 7, 2020 14:43:22 GMT
I understand he was an ophthalmologist. Presumably sitting daily at his machine at very close face-to-face contact level, mainly with the elderly. Poor chap didn't stand a chance of avoiding it really.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 7, 2020 15:29:52 GMT
BBC1 lunchtime news suggested it may have been down to him having contact with multiple patients who were infected, thereby giving him a higher than normal initial dose of the virus. And apparently he may no longer be dead... says he is: "China's National Supervisory Commission is to send a special team to Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province, to investigate the public uproar over the deceased doctor Li Wenliang, who was one of the first to raise an early alarm over the novel coronavirus"
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 7, 2020 15:32:29 GMT
Looking at the latest stats outside China: 325 Confirmed cases 2 deaths (0.6%) 31 recovered (9.5%), 5 Critical (1.5%) It too early to say whether outside China have better treatment or containment when comparing Chinese stats. China: 31210 Confirmed cases 636 deaths (2%) 1747 recovered (5.6%), 4821 Critical (15.4%) www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Honorable mention for recovery rate: Australia 33%, Thailand, 36% |
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 7, 2020 16:14:12 GMT
And apparently he may no longer be dead... says he is: "China's National Supervisory Commission is to send a special team to Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province, to investigate the public uproar over the deceased doctor Li Wenliang, who was one of the first to raise an early alarm over the novel coronavirus" Yes, the consensus seems to be that he is, was a bit confused for a while, announcement, denials and confirmations.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 7, 2020 23:14:58 GMT
Total deaths from SARS back in 2002/3 was 774. Sadly, deaths from this latest coronavirus will exceed that number tomorrow. To add some perspective though, benaj's link above states that normal seasonal flu is estimated to kill between 795 and 1781 people... every day. |
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 10, 2020 10:12:08 GMT
"Coronavirus: UK cases double as four more patients test positive for deadly virus" report in the Independent
Goes on to say "All new cases linked to single traveller from Singapore who spread the virus to multiple people in France en route to the UK"
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 10, 2020 10:41:15 GMT
"Coronavirus: UK cases double as four more patients test positive for deadly virus" report in the Independent
Goes on to say "All new cases linked to single traveller from Singapore who spread the virus to multiple people in France en route to the UK"
That will be that group of people in the skiing chalet in France then.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Feb 10, 2020 11:07:17 GMT
Heard yesterday an American demanding evacuation from the ship off Japan, as he's been told that "the virus is definitely circulating in the air on the ship" by the "US contagious diseases authority", and that he needs to get off the ship. And the Brit left behind in Wuhan because of raised temperature who says its because he was weight limited so was wearing 2 jackets ( because it's so cold in UK at this time of year ), I mean  Carry the second jacket, and surely China not that much hotter than UK And just on BBC news one of the people in isolation in the Wirral is threatening to leave. I'd bet both of these are the typical entitled people one encounters these days. |
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 10, 2020 12:03:04 GMT
I'm on the "Meh" side of this. It's the flu. It's just a new strain, like the new strains every year - 5N1, Bird flu, SARS, <insert annual lurgy scare story here>. It's being compared to SARS, but AIUI it's a bit more infectious but a lot less fatal. I'm not convinced it is less fatal. SARS killed 9.6%. The 2% being bandied about for this new strain is stretching things IMHO, because that's the proportion of the cases currently reported. It's an odd measure to use while the number of cases is increasing exponentially. When those 2% first fell ill, there were perhaps only 2,000 infections. It's surely better to look at the binary outcome, survive vs. fatal. In SARS that ended up, as far as I can tell, 90.4% vs. 9.6%. So it's fair to quote 9.6% death rate. The John Hopkins page here tells us alongside the 638 coronavirus deaths there have been just 1678 who've recovered. That suggests the remaining 29,000-odd still currently infected can still go either way, and will presumably follow the same pattern. 638 deaths vs. 1678 recovered implies a death rate closer to 27% 😮. MERS was somewhere around that level. Edit: correcting spellchecker's 'coronary' to 'coronavirus'. I knew 2% wasn't right, and for the reason I gave. That figure is "naive and misleading" and "flawed" according to this well written article, which offers a much better methodology which properly accounts for the time lag.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 10, 2020 12:20:42 GMT
I'm not convinced it is less fatal. SARS killed 9.6%. The 2% being bandied about for this new strain is stretching things IMHO, because that's the proportion of the cases currently reported. It's an odd measure to use while the number of cases is increasing exponentially. When those 2% first fell ill, there were perhaps only 2,000 infections. It's surely better to look at the binary outcome, survive vs. fatal. In SARS that ended up, as far as I can tell, 90.4% vs. 9.6%. So it's fair to quote 9.6% death rate. The John Hopkins page here tells us alongside the 638 coronavirus deaths there have been just 1678 who've recovered. That suggests the remaining 29,000-odd still currently infected can still go either way, and will presumably follow the same pattern. 638 deaths vs. 1678 recovered implies a death rate closer to 27% 😮. MERS was somewhere around that level. Edit: correcting spellchecker's 'coronary' to 'coronavirus'. I knew 2% wasn't right, and for the reason I gave. That figure is "naive and misleading" and "flawed" according to this well written article, which offers a much better methodology which properly accounts for the time lag. you also have to factor in that there will be a large number of unreported, mild cases. Rates will only ever be approximate. Having sad that, and with the caveat that not everything is known yet, the consensus is that it is significantly less likely to be fatal than SARS.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 10, 2020 13:13:38 GMT
IMO, another odd one is Philippine. So far 3 confirmed cases, 1 death, 2 recovered. Under-reported?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 10, 2020 15:35:02 GMT
BBC reports "Coronavirus: Brighton GP practice closes after staff member tests positive"
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 10, 2020 15:52:13 GMT
BBC reports "Coronavirus: Brighton GP practice closes after staff member tests positive" I believe the man who contracted the virus in Singapore visited a pub in Brighton, before feeling unwell and going to the Doctor's surgery in question.
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Carry the second jacket, and surely China not that much hotter than UK
