Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 24, 2020 18:35:38 GMT
Italy now has 5 Coronavirus deaths according to the Telegraph. Meanwhile, South Korea has 833 cases/8 deaths ( link)
Let's hope people in the affected regions haven't been travelling.
michaelc To your earlier point, if people had been taking international flights from areas in Italy/S Korea (or elsewhere) before they were known hotspots, would seem to me to increase the chance of outbreaks in other countries. E.g. I doubt travellers to the UK from northern Italy have been seen as high risk until the last week or so. Cheers for addressing it cb but I think you answered a slightly different question. What I'm still trying to drum into my numbskull is why it isn't inevitable that most of the world will become infected ? Because of the 11 million in wuhan only a tiny percentage have caught it (70,000?) and it's been wild around there since December or January. Or most of the cases are so mild as to be not really noticed.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 24, 2020 18:47:07 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 24, 2020 18:52:45 GMT
Well, in that case I guess it's a bloody good thing that we've got that extra £350 million a week for the NHS then. We have, errr, haven't we?  According to the BBC its around 173 million per week (£63 billion over seven years). That's still a lot of money and for what purpose? www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51594002Assuming your figures are correct that'd pay for an "anti-virus" mask for everybody in the country in a month, with fifteen million odd masks left over. And that's at current price gouge rates. So that's not very practical, helpful or targeted. But they bloody well better make sure our health professionals are well protected, and look after the vulnerable as well as possible.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 19:02:25 GMT
More seriously, I understand the concern. And I understand the messages you're receiving from your HK practice. Equally my doctor friends are... not panicking. If we take your example of it becoming as widespread as seasonal flu isolation and quarantine would be moot. And if it's as widepsread as seasonal flu, given a similarish mortality, why would medical facilities be stretched to breaking point more than they are with seasonal flu (though I grant you if it doubles up with seasonal flu....)? So I end up concluding that your ".... order of magnitude" is overly pessimistic. Mortality rates and critical/ICU percentages are already an 'order of magnitude' worse than seasonal flu. So if coronavirus becomes as widespread as seasonal flu, it is extremely plausible that the impact on medical facilities will be an 'order of magnitude' worse, by definition. HK/Singapore are seeing critical rates of 5%+. Globally (ex-China) more like 2-3%. Do some simple maths - UK population size, infection/transmission rate similar to flu, critical admission rates even close to these reported levels... then compare to the number of critical beds available in the UK. Go on. I dare you.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 24, 2020 19:08:02 GMT
Assuming your figures are correct that'd pay for an "anti-virus" mask for everybody in the country in a month, with fifteen million odd masks left over. And that's at current price gouge rates. So that's not very practical, helpful or targeted. But they bloody well better make sure our health professionals are well protected, and look after the vulnerable as well as possible. No chance of the government providing masks for all us plebs. They can't even supply those with a genuine professional need right now... www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51493492
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 24, 2020 19:15:13 GMT
More seriously, I understand the concern. And I understand the messages you're receiving from your HK practice. Equally my doctor friends are... not panicking. If we take your example of it becoming as widespread as seasonal flu isolation and quarantine would be moot. And if it's as widepsread as seasonal flu, given a similarish mortality, why would medical facilities be stretched to breaking point more than they are with seasonal flu (though I grant you if it doubles up with seasonal flu....)? So I end up concluding that your ".... order of magnitude" is overly pessimistic. Mortality rates and critical/ICU percentages are already 'orders of magnitude' worse than seasonal flu. So if coronavirus becomes as widespread as seasonal flu, it is extremely plausible that the impact on medical facilities will be 'orders of magnitude' worse, by definition. HK/Singapore are seeing critical rates of 5%+. Globally (ex-China) more like 2-3%. Do some simple maths - UK population size, infection/transmission rate similar to flu, critical admission rates even close to these reported levels... then compare to the number of critical beds available in the UK. Go on. I dare you. Yes, the UK would be screwed inside a fortnight. But I take some solace (rightly or wrongly) from the indication that active cases are overall on the decline globally, despite the outbreaks in new countries... www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#active-cases
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 24, 2020 19:40:21 GMT
humans are absolutely nuts aren't they. the pangolins or whatever started this must be laughing their asses off  Except it was possibly the bats - and they are shrieking their heads-off, its just that we can't hear them.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 24, 2020 19:41:22 GMT
CNBC compares US seasonal flu mortality rate of 0.095% vs Coronavirus rate of 2%, making the latter 20 times more deadly.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 24, 2020 19:43:23 GMT
Assuming your figures are correct that'd pay for an "anti-virus" mask for everybody in the country in a month, with fifteen million odd masks left over. And that's at current price gouge rates. So that's not very practical, helpful or targeted. But they bloody well better make sure our health professionals are well protected, and look after the vulnerable as well as possible. except most of the world's supply of surgical masks come from China. So they're in rather short supply. And even if there were plenty to be exported.....would you want to take one made in China
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 24, 2020 20:03:45 GMT
CNBC compares US seasonal flu mortality rate of 0.095% vs Coronavirus rate of 2%, making the latter 20 times more deadly. Finding comparable figures is quite difficult (I've just spent half an hour digging and read a lot about "excess respiratory mortality" but nothing that says, simply, average mortality rate for influenza is....", so thanks for that. What we don't have a good handle on at the moment is how many cases of COVID-19 infection never get reported, and without that it's hard to estimate the actual mortality rate. @eurasian69 if the mortality rate of COVID-19 actually turns out to be 2% across the entire infected population then yes, I accept that it could be very nasty. I also accept the likely impact on health care systems globally.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Feb 24, 2020 20:07:49 GMT
Once again, stop focusing purely on the mortality rate, and look at the rate requiring significant medical intervention and/or ICU care. Then you might understand the concern in medical circles. I've just had another communication from the HK practice I used to be registered at, and they have re-iterated this point strongly. As has my direct family member who was involved in the SARS crisis directly as a medic in one of the quarantined hospitals. This virus has a genuine risk of stretching medical facilities to breaking point if it becomes anywhere close to as widespread as seasonal flu. Think the yearly 'NHS winter crisis' caused by 'mere' flu... then multiply by an order of magnitude. Well, in that case I guess it's a bloody good thing that we've got that extra £350 million a week for the NHS then. We have, errr, haven't we? More seriously, I understand the concern. And I understand the messages you're receiving from your HK practice. Equally my doctor friends are... not panicking. If we take your example of it becoming as widespread as seasonal flu isolation and quarantine would be moot. And if it's as widepsread as seasonal flu, given a similarish mortality, why would medical facilities be stretched to breaking point more than they are with seasonal flu (though I grant you if it doubles up with seasonal flu....)? So I end up concluding that your ".... order of magnitude" is overly pessimistic. Still, it wouldn't be the first time I've got something wrong, and I appreciate the opinions and perspectives people have provided in this thread even where I disagree with them  .
I'm no expert, I think part of the issue might be that this is a novel virus so no or lower population with pre-immunity, that is, lots of people, hopefully not everyone getting it at roughly the same time swamping hospitals/ICU's. Summer is coming that might delay it til next year(?) when a vaccine should be available.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 24, 2020 20:09:22 GMT
And also rubbish data.
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Post by dan1 on Feb 24, 2020 20:11:35 GMT
I know it's stating the obvious but as it doesn't appear to have been stated yet I'll do it..... when healthcare systems become saturated the mortality rate itself will increase dramatically (exponentially at first?). If it's 2% now then what would it be when all those with pre-existing medical conditions, inc respiratory illnesses, can't get admitted to HDU or ICU?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 20:14:50 GMT
I'm no expert, I think part of the issue might be that this is a novel virus so no or lower population with pre-immunity, that is, lots of people, hopefully not everyone getting at roughly the same time swamping hospitals/ICU's. This. As far as we know, we have minimal herd immunity, no effective vaccinations, and little data about effective treatments. That is why slowing the initial spread is so damned vital. - to prevent an initial tidal wave of cases all manifesting in a short space of time, which our medical facilities simply could not handle - to give scientists/medics time to study this thing, create and produce sufficient countermeasures
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 20:15:55 GMT
I know it's stating the obvious but as it doesn't appear to have been stated yet I'll do it..... when healthcare systems become saturated the mortality rate itself will increase dramatically (exponentially at first?). If it's 2% now then what would it be when all those with pre-existing medical conditions, inc respiratory illnesses, can't get admitted to HDU or ICU? And this (I actually stated this too earlier in the thread). A consequence of overwhelmed medical facilities is that mortality rates for *everything* will go up. Not just coronavirus and related complications.
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