Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Feb 24, 2020 12:40:51 GMT
I can see ISIS recruiting poster now.
Before you needed to commit to being blown up.
Now we will put you in a room with a few sniffly folk and then send you to the west to visit pop concerts, football matches etc. enjoy yourselves in this life. Then have a nice accommodation looked after by kind nurses for a couple of weeks. Or come home to a Vicks Inhaler in your Shisha pipe.
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Post by southseacompany on Feb 24, 2020 13:04:26 GMT
Only a fool tries to time the market. Only a fool behaves irrationally and takes a binary view of risk. Selling the majority of your holdings because of the virus ? Seriously ? Brokers love these sort of people, more churn than an ice cream factory in their portfolio, bring on the commission $$$ ! Either a person is a serious long-term investor or they are not. I can't speak for others, but I have made the decision to sell primarily because the market is trading at an excessive valuation by long-term metrics (e.g. Shiller PE ratio), which is statistically predictive of below average returns over then next ten years. The virus simply served as a timing signal. I use a low cost broker and this is the first time I've been out of the market (on the long side) in 20 years, so if my broker loves me for it, I'd say they are pretty easily pleased. Investors differ in time horizon, risk tolerance, and many other things. Attempting to time the market is risky and difficult, certainly not suitable for most people, but I think labeling investors as "not serious" for trying is a silly attempt at gatekeeping.
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Feb 24, 2020 13:10:03 GMT
Italy now has 5 Coronavirus deaths according to the Telegraph. Meanwhile, South Korea has 833 cases/8 deaths ( link)
Let's hope people in the affected regions haven't been travelling.
michaelc To your earlier point, if people had been taking international flights from areas in Italy/S Korea (or elsewhere) before they were known hotspots, would seem to me to increase the chance of outbreaks in other countries. E.g. I doubt travellers to the UK from northern Italy have been seen as high risk until the last week or so. Cheers for addressing it cb but I think you answered a slightly different question. What I'm still trying to drum into my numbskull is why it isn't inevitable that most of the world will become infected ?
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Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
Posts: 2,011
Likes: 1,013
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Post by Godanubis on Feb 24, 2020 13:11:14 GMT
Nothing wrong with selling to lock in a profit. It gives you more funds to buy a bargain when short term shocks disappear.
That is of course if you are still around to trade 
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Feb 24, 2020 13:36:14 GMT
Talking of hand hygiene, I started thinking a bit more on the subject during my weekly supermarket run a few days ago.
Lets suppose the trolley handle is contaminated .... first stop fruit & veg ... mostly plastic wrapped, but the brocoli needed hands on. Does 2.5 min in the microwave kill coronavirus ? Can it persist on the skin of bananas or onions or carrots (to later transfer back to hands). Next stop Milk ... does a standard milk carton handle represent a 'smooth surface' ? Possibly not, but a wine bottle presumably does. Lost count of the number of times I touched my face. Through checkout touching wallet and loyaty card + credit card; over £30 so needed to key in PIN. Out to car, unlock with large plastic remote and lift boot lid. Return trolley and retrieve pound coin into pocket. From jacket pocket remove the invisible bottle of hand santiser and disinfect hands. Get in car ... oh ... I've just retrieved my smooth plastic remote/ignition key from my pocket .... oh ... last touched before I santised my hands. Drive home. Wash hands (for real this time, and normal given I'm about to unpack and handle food). Pick up bottle of wine ... oh .. last touched at the checkout by me and the till operator.
Whilst obviously good advice to keep hands as clean as possible at all times, in practical terms if you encounter heavy contamination its going to be close to impossible to avoid spreading it far and wide.
I was wondering about that too. If you knew your life might well depend on it you might be able to think about it constantly and thus not touch your face etc? Also does wearing surgical gloves only help in that you can then dispose of them or do they contain any anti-microbe/virus/bacteria properties ?
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scc
Member of DD Central
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Post by scc on Feb 24, 2020 14:09:12 GMT
I agree with both @wallstreet and others with differing views.
For me, the adjustments are coming in my P2P holdings (although they are a tiny % of my overall wealth). If there's a prolonged economic impact as a result of the virus, it's hard to imagine all of the existing P2P providers and borrowers coming through without any problems. S&S etc in my pension are being left untouched and I'll continue to drip feed my salary into it.
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registerme
Member of DD Central
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Post by registerme on Feb 24, 2020 15:12:44 GMT
I don't subscribe to the doom and gloom regarding COVID-19. Unless and until it mutates (to have a higher mortality rate) I doubt very much that it will end up being worse than your average seasonal flue. People will get ill, sadly a small proportion may not recover, but the world will continue to turn. But yes, there will be a negative impact on the economy, if only because of a) fear and b) disruption to supply chains / business as usual. And yes, there's plenty of other reasons for thinking that markets are toppy.
Anyway, what does bother me, and in some senses acts as a proviso to the above, is the reporting. The tail of "single cases" doesn't make any sense. As I look at the data Sri Lanka, Egypt, Iraw, Sweden, Finland, Lebanon, Belgium, Israel, Bahrain, Cambodia, Nepal and Afghanistan are all reporting one single case. Russia is reporting two. Many are reporting none at all.
I don't believe that for a second.
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Post by wildlife2 on Feb 24, 2020 15:46:46 GMT
Save money and make your own face mask I'll just go and look up all the ingredients ...
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scc
Member of DD Central
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Post by scc on Feb 24, 2020 15:57:06 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 16:56:52 GMT
I don't subscribe to the doom and gloom regarding COVID-19. Unless and until it mutates (to have a higher mortality rate) I doubt very much that it will end up being worse than your average seasonal flue. People will get ill, sadly a small proportion may not recover, but the world will continue to turn. But yes, there will be a negative impact on the economy, if only because of a) fear and b) disruption to supply chains / business as usual. And yes, there's plenty of other reasons for thinking that markets are toppy. Once again, stop focusing purely on the mortality rate, and look at the rate requiring significant medical intervention and/or ICU care. Then you might understand the concern in medical circles. I've just had another communication from the HK practice I used to be registered at, and they have re-iterated this point strongly. As has my direct family member who was involved in the SARS crisis directly as a medic in one of the quarantined hospitals. This virus has a genuine risk of stretching medical facilities to breaking point if it becomes anywhere close to as widespread as seasonal flu. Think the yearly 'NHS winter crisis' caused by 'mere' flu... then multiply by an order of magnitude.
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djay
Member of DD Central
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Post by djay on Feb 24, 2020 17:20:16 GMT
I don't subscribe to the doom and gloom regarding COVID-19. Unless and until it mutates (to have a higher mortality rate) I doubt very much that it will end up being worse than your average seasonal flue. People will get ill, sadly a small proportion may not recover, but the world will continue to turn. But yes, there will be a negative impact on the economy, if only because of a) fear and b) disruption to supply chains / business as usual. And yes, there's plenty of other reasons for thinking that markets are toppy. Once again, stop focusing purely on the mortality rate, and look at the rate requiring significant medical intervention and/or ICU care. Then you might understand the concern in medical circles. I've just had another communication from the HK practice I used to be registered at, and they have re-iterated this point strongly. As has my direct family member who was involved in the SARS crisis directly as a medic in one of the quarantined hospitals. This virus has a genuine risk of stretching medical facilities to breaking point if it becomes anywhere close to as widespread as seasonal flu. Think the yearly 'NHS winter crisis' caused by 'mere' flu... then multiply by an order of magnitude. Absolutely right, the real risk as I mentioned before is that it becomes endemic. The consequences will be enormous.
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Post by wildlife2 on Feb 24, 2020 17:28:31 GMT
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registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
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Post by registerme on Feb 24, 2020 18:15:58 GMT
I don't subscribe to the doom and gloom regarding COVID-19. Unless and until it mutates (to have a higher mortality rate) I doubt very much that it will end up being worse than your average seasonal flue. People will get ill, sadly a small proportion may not recover, but the world will continue to turn. But yes, there will be a negative impact on the economy, if only because of a) fear and b) disruption to supply chains / business as usual. And yes, there's plenty of other reasons for thinking that markets are toppy. Once again, stop focusing purely on the mortality rate, and look at the rate requiring significant medical intervention and/or ICU care. Then you might understand the concern in medical circles. I've just had another communication from the HK practice I used to be registered at, and they have re-iterated this point strongly. As has my direct family member who was involved in the SARS crisis directly as a medic in one of the quarantined hospitals. This virus has a genuine risk of stretching medical facilities to breaking point if it becomes anywhere close to as widespread as seasonal flu. Think the yearly 'NHS winter crisis' caused by 'mere' flu... then multiply by an order of magnitude. Well, in that case I guess it's a bloody good thing that we've got that extra £350 million a week for the NHS then. We have, errr, haven't we?  More seriously, I understand the concern. And I understand the messages you're receiving from your HK practice. Equally my doctor friends are... not panicking. If we take your example of it becoming as widespread as seasonal flu isolation and quarantine would be moot. And if it's as widepsread as seasonal flu, given a similarish mortality, why would medical facilities be stretched to breaking point more than they are with seasonal flu (though I grant you if it doubles up with seasonal flu....)? So I end up concluding that your ".... order of magnitude" is overly pessimistic. Still, it wouldn't be the first time I've got something wrong, and I appreciate the opinions and perspectives people have provided in this thread even where I disagree with them .
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james100
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Post by james100 on Feb 24, 2020 18:21:01 GMT
humans are absolutely nuts aren't they. the pangolins or whatever started this must be laughing their asses off 
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Feb 24, 2020 18:27:11 GMT
Well, in that case I guess it's a bloody good thing that we've got that extra £350 million a week for the NHS then. We have, errr, haven't we? According to the BBC its around 173 million per week (£63 billion over seven years). That's still a lot of money and for what purpose? www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51594002
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