Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Feb 25, 2020 22:49:48 GMT
The Muslim HAJJ is due in July this year where thousands of people from all over the world will congregated in Mecca. All intermingling at close quarters then disseminating back across the globe. This is the greatest mingling of people on the planet and because of the religious significance is unlikely to be cancelled. Easter in Rome is also a huge meeting of people from all over the world. The Hindu new year is also soon. It looks like the potential to wipe out a large proportion of the major religions followers. Notrodamus predicted the apocalypse would begin in the east ? The seven seals are opening The Four Horsemen of the apocalypse are coming War, Pestilence, Famine and eventually death all are prevalent in the modern world. Looks like I’m going to be busy. I better get the scales serviced and pluck a few feathers.  |
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star dust
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Post by star dust on Feb 26, 2020 13:54:42 GMT
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Feb 26, 2020 14:54:51 GMT
Well as the trading trend over the past two days showed it was highly illiogical And in my view that's only the very beginning of the market adjustment for the economic impact. Two words. Panic Selling (mostly by retail peeps). Those of us who have "been there, done that, got the postcard" have been net buyers (i.e. yes, I've sold some names, but I've bought more new names than I've sold). The people who are really panicking are no doubt those retail "investors" who've fallen hook line and sinker for passive index ETFs. Diworsification.  Interesting but surely you'd have to agree that mrclondon has probably done rather well by predicting this at the start of the thread and "panic selling" his portfolio. Second point is when lots of people panic sell, doesn't panic breed panic meaning further drops in the market?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 26, 2020 15:25:32 GMT
I see that the 6 nations Rugby boffins are currently trying to work out if it's a good idea to have thousands of rugby fans travelling to / from Italy over the next couple of weeks. reports "Ireland v Italy Six Nations match postponed"
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Post by wiseclerk on Feb 26, 2020 15:31:44 GMT
Well as the trading trend over the past two days showed it was highly illiogical And in my view that's only the very beginning of the market adjustment for the economic impact. The people who are really panicking are no doubt those retail "investors" who've fallen hook line and sinker for passive index ETFs. Diworsification. Well, I am an retail investor and I sold my whole ETF portfolio on January 29th and 30th. (and that is after a buy and hold strategy of continously building that portfolio over many years)
I felt it was a very rational decision as the potential for downside was much bigger and I was happy to forego any upside development, if selling allowed me to sit on the sidelines for about a month and just see how this develops. I am still happy with this decision. I think the economic impact will become much more evident over the next few weeks.
I am aware that market timing does not work but I felt I was not trying to time the market. If the virus would have been fully contained and the market had risen 5% I'd have happily bought back the same ETFs at a 5% higher price.
With the way things are currently developing I'd start buying back if the market (indexes) drops about 20-25% below current level.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 26, 2020 16:10:14 GMT
According to this source, 14% of recovered patients from a Chinese hospital may still carry the virus, adding complexity to efforts to control the outbreak. This virus is going to be very difficult to contain.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 26, 2020 16:12:03 GMT
I see that the 6 nations Rugby boffins are currently trying to work out if it's a good idea to have thousands of rugby fans travelling to / from Italy over the next couple of weeks. reports "Ireland v Italy Six Nations match postponed" Whereas the good people at EUFA are happy for thousands of Jueventus supporters (travelling from Turin, which is about 100 miles from the epicenter of the Italian outbreak) to travel to France for tonights Champions league game.
To quote Mr Angry, they must need a check up from the neck up.
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Post by southseacompany on Feb 26, 2020 16:20:06 GMT
can't speak for others, but I have made the decision to sell primarily because the market is trading at an excessive valuation by long-term metrics (e.g. Shiller PE ratio) Poor old PE ratio. Over abused by many who fall for the ancient statistical nonsense. You did see that I spoke of the Shiller PE (i.e. CAPE) ratio rather than the general ttm PE ratio, right? In my experience most people do not use it at all, let alone over abuse it. In any case, valuations appearing elevated vs. historical levels is not an artifact of corporate debt levels: the market is also expensive on an EV/EBITDA basis. Likewise, it is not an artifact of profitability: valuations are also high when measured by the EV/S ratio. I should also add that unless you are in a passive index-tracker ETF, there is more to investing life than watching what the index does (hint: an index is made of constituents).  Even in the worst bear market, there are many stocks that produce good returns, but I don't think that is an argument for altogether ignoring general market trends. FWIW, I don't invest in ETFs.
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 26, 2020 16:21:27 GMT
It will surprise no one that I'm in complete agreement with both wiseclerk and southseacompany . Since I sold out on 10th Feb I think the chance of a market crash has increased substantially. I completely accept that many people will view where the world is today and conclude that the risk of bank collapses is minimal, but I tend to concur with the various academics warning that there is a significant risk of bank collapses over the next 12 months (which I feel will be the trigger for a market crash).
The economic fallout from the virus will be huge. There has been only a minimal uptick in the underlying data regarding China's economy ( charts note the refresh warning) which is now approaching 4 weeks of lost output after the planned end of the spring holiday. On top of that there is now starting to be lost output across the world due in part to lack of Chinese raw materials, and in part due to the spread of coronavirus across the world. The travel industry worldwide is facing a crisis, and I expect a good number of airlines will go bust this year.
In terms of this weeks correction, I've spoken to a technical trader (algo trading) this morning. I struggle to place a lot of credence on this mumbo-jumbo as I prefer to work with hard data like company earnings. But, FWIW, the view is that now FTSE 100 has broken below the Aug 2019 low of c. 7100, the next support level will be the Nov 2016 and Dec 2018 lows of 6700. If it goes below that (quite likely given that is only 4% below current value), there will be minimal support from algo traders until the Feb 2016 low of c. 5700 (19% below current value).
There has been a lot of discussion in the US media about Trump (and others in his administration) spinning the narrative in an attempt to support the market. Undoubtably true, but misses the point in my view .... there is a massive degree of correlation between the stock markets in each country. You've only got to have real time (or the equivalent futures if the market is closed) charts open on say FTSE 100 / DJIA / Nikkei to see them change direction at pretty much the same time and pretty much at the same rate. What Trump says or doesn't say is largely irrelevant as the world is a bigger place than the Oval Office.
One final observation, which is stating the obvious, but worth remembering. For those who have sold equity holdings, esp in an ISA or SIPP, the cash will be stuck in your providers client account, and subject to FSCS coverage limits (£85k per bank). HL manage their client account across several banks ( www.hl.co.uk/about-us/cash ) to provide close to £250k of coverage. I have today moved my cash above this value into several money market funds (which hold bonds in banks and various near cash assets) which target capital protection as the main aim. (I have no intention of re-entering the equity market any time soon).
EDIT - just a reminder that I sold out of equity mainly as a means of ensuring I would be able to support myself in the event of a total collapse of all asset values. This is not some clever investment strategy.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 26, 2020 16:22:00 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Feb 26, 2020 16:30:57 GMT
Anyone know of a reasonably reliable site that shows the number of new cases and running total day by day in the various countries?
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 26, 2020 16:35:14 GMT
Anyone know of a reasonably reliable site that shows the number of new cases and running total day by day in the various countries?
Is pretty good as it has towards the bottom a timestamped list as each new entry is added to the main table. Occaisonally lags by a couple of hours particularly during weekends.
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Feb 26, 2020 16:37:13 GMT
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Post by wiseclerk on Feb 26, 2020 16:38:12 GMT
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Post by southseacompany on Feb 26, 2020 16:38:44 GMT
Well as the trading trend over the past two days showed it was highly illiogical Those of us who have "been there, done that, got the postcard" have been net buyers (i.e. yes, I've sold some names, but I've bought more new names than I've sold). Having been a net buyer in the last two days implies that you have invested some previously undeployed cash. Why would you change your asset allocation in response to market movements when your avowed belief is that market timing is "a fool's game"? It sounds like you engage in market timing just like the rest of us "fools", the only difference is that you do it to a lesser degree.
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