IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 26, 2020 20:05:38 GMT
That would be a 1% mortality then - all the armchair experts are telling me it's more like 10% or higher. Those numbers would indeed put a stress on the health service. Erm nope, it is the numbers in critical condition and requiring intensive medical intervention that are close to 10% in some places (like HK and Singapore). And yeah... that could put a bit of 'stress' on the health service (just a tiny bit of an understatement). If you feel brave, compare these kind of numbers to the critical care capacity of the UK medical system... The understatement was deliberate! The point is that sensible containment is very likely to - erm - contain the spread. Hysterical panic is still more of a threat (financially speaking) at the moment. That may change if containment doesn't work. But, despite my usual stance as a pessimist, I am way way more optimistic than mrclondon who is either a modern-day nostradamus or is catastrophising on a scale not seen since the Greeks invented the word!
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 26, 2020 20:05:47 GMT
If we are close to the end of society as we know it, why are people still complaining about LY, COL & FS?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2020 20:15:00 GMT
The understatement was deliberate! The point is that sensible containment is very likely to - erm - contain the spread. Hysterical panic is still more of a threat (financially speaking) at the moment. That may change if containment doesn't work. But, despite my usual stance as a pessimist, I am way way more optimistic than mrclondon who is either a modern nostradamus or is catastrophising on a scale not seen since the Greeks invented to word! Well I think mrclondon and myself are in agreement in believing that containment has *already* failed. The only question now for me is whether the rate of spread can be slowed enough to give time for vaccines and/or effective treatments to be studied and produced in sufficient quantity. As for not indulging in 'hysterical panic', well... my motto is 'don't panic, but if you really must panic, panic early'. Or if you like, 'prepare for the worst, hope for the best'. This motto helped me traverse the minefield that is P2P investing, anyway 
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 26, 2020 20:24:54 GMT
According to The Sun there's a government document titled Covid-19 Reasonable Worst Case Scenario that suggests 80% of the population might catch Coronavirus resulting in 500,000 dead. Not good obviously, but wouldn't stop society functioning (and it's only a possible scenario). That would be a 1% mortality then - all the armchair experts are telling me it's more like 10% or higher. Those numbers would indeed put a stress on the health service. Having said that, even the Black Death didn't affect 80% (although in a chilling parallel it did enter Europe via Italy...) Rate from closed cases (death/recovery) now at 8% (down from 19% a few weeks back), link
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 26, 2020 20:27:44 GMT
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 26, 2020 20:38:20 GMT
The understatement was deliberate! The point is that sensible containment is very likely to - erm - contain the spread. Hysterical panic is still more of a threat (financially speaking) at the moment. That may change if containment doesn't work. But, despite my usual stance as a pessimist, I am way way more optimistic than mrclondon who is either a modern nostradamus or is catastrophising on a scale not seen since the Greeks invented to word! As for not indulging in 'hysterical panic', well... my motto is 'don't panic, but if you really must panic, panic early'. Or if you like, 'prepare for the worst, hope for the best'. This motto helped me traverse the minefield that is P2P investing, anyway Irrespective of differing views on where this is heading, I think IFISAcava 's comment on 'hysterical panic', and yours on 'panic early' are both worth noting. I'm sure many of us have seen pictures of Milan's supermarkets stripped virtually bare this weekend, following similiar scenes in Singapore & HK. A perfect example of hysterical panic. I spotted a few more gaps in the stock at my local supermarket this week than normal - some instant and filter coffee lines empty, some UHT milk lines empty, no tinned chick peas at all. Evidence of early panic ?
I think there is a medium to high risk of 'hysterical panic' in our supermarkets over the next few weeks, and it might be wise to if not to actually 'panic early' at least ensure that you aren't caught by surprise when you turn up at the supermarket to find empty shelves.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 26, 2020 20:42:40 GMT
I've been doing that, slowly but surely, for every purported Brexit date  . |
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 26, 2020 20:44:46 GMT
As for not indulging in 'hysterical panic', well... my motto is 'don't panic, but if you really must panic, panic early'. Or if you like, 'prepare for the worst, hope for the best'. This motto helped me traverse the minefield that is P2P investing, anyway Irrespective of differing views on the where this is heading, I think IFISAcava 's comment on 'hysterical panic', and yours on 'panic early' are both worth noting. I'm sure many of us have seen pictures of Milan's supermarkets stripped virtually bare this weekend, following similiar scenes in Singapore & HK. A perfect example of hysterical panic. I spotted a few more gaps in the stock at my local supermarket this week than normal - some instant and filter coffee lines empty, some UHT milk lines empty, no tinned chick peas at all. Evidence of early panic ?
I think there is a medium to high risk of 'hysterical panic' in our supermarkets over the next few weeks, and it might be wise to if not to actually 'panic early' at least ensure that you aren't caught by surprise when you turn up at the supermarket to find empty shelves.
Let those panic. UK is "well prepared" right? There were people stockpiling earlier. www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/12/britons-have-spent-4bn-stockpiling-goods-in-case-of-no-deal-brexitwww.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/25/brexit-stockpiling-by-uk-retailers-and-wholesalers-reaching-2008-levels-says-cbi
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 26, 2020 20:46:05 GMT
According to The Sun there's a government document titled Covid-19 Reasonable Worst Case Scenario that suggests 80% of the population might catch Coronavirus resulting in 500,000 dead. Not good obviously, but wouldn't stop society functioning (and it's only a possible scenario). Worst case seems pretty unlikely. In Wuhan there are about 80,000/11,000,000 have caught it (sufficiently to be significantly ill) with 3000 dead. We have a population of 78 million giving approximately (assuming about 7 x the population of Wuhan) 7 x 3000 = 21,000 possible deaths, all things being equal.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 26, 2020 21:01:29 GMT
I've been doing that, slowly but surely, for every purported Brexit date . I m stuck with a load of £20 notes hoarded for that reason that are soon to become obsolete! Spending them on whatever I can - and realising how strange it feels not to pay for everything by card
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 26, 2020 21:32:42 GMT
As for not indulging in 'hysterical panic', well... my motto is 'don't panic, but if you really must panic, panic early'. Or if you like, 'prepare for the worst, hope for the best'. This motto helped me traverse the minefield that is P2P investing, anyway Irrespective of differing views on where this is heading, I think IFISAcava 's comment on 'hysterical panic', and yours on 'panic early' are both worth noting. I'm sure many of us have seen pictures of Milan's supermarkets stripped virtually bare this weekend, following similiar scenes in Singapore & HK. A perfect example of hysterical panic. I spotted a few more gaps in the stock at my local supermarket this week than normal - some instant and filter coffee lines empty, some UHT milk lines empty, no tinned chick peas at all. Evidence of early panic ?
I think there is a medium to high risk of 'hysterical panic' in our supermarkets over the next few weeks, and it might be wise to if not to actually 'panic early' at least ensure that you aren't caught by surprise when you turn up at the supermarket to find empty shelves.
Quite brilliant that the first thing people stock up on is coffee
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2020 22:06:44 GMT
Quite brilliant that the first thing people stock up on is coffee Anyone who has suffered from caffeine withdrawal will understand
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jj
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Jolly Jammy
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Post by jj on Feb 26, 2020 22:15:37 GMT
Forget crypto currencies cigarettes, coffee & cornbeef could be the currency of tomorrow.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 26, 2020 22:19:20 GMT
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 26, 2020 22:30:12 GMT
Forget crypto currencies cigarettes, coffee & cornbeef could be the currency of tomorrow. And, apparently according to mrclondon’s earlier post, tinned chickpeas. I think I find the idea that I may soon start to receive tins of chickpeas in lieu of promissory notes from Mr Bailey troubling in so many respects. On the other hand, given the nature of Covid-19 and those who are considered to be at ‘high risk’ of shall we say “unwanted life threatening side effects” of being an unwitting human incubation vessel, the value of cigarettes as a barter currency is unlikely to hold up.
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