registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 26, 2020 22:59:39 GMT
I'm tempted to put a poll up - which is the greater threat to the world, Trump or COVID-19?
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Post by martin44 on Feb 26, 2020 23:05:08 GMT
I'm tempted to put a poll up - which is the greater threat to the world, Trump or COVID-19? Wondered how long it would take.. Oh well.. if you have to. 
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Post by martin44 on Feb 26, 2020 23:07:01 GMT
Flu kills many many thousands every year unfortunately. Thought you were referring to the squirts. Thats worse. 
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dovap
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Post by dovap on Feb 26, 2020 23:46:38 GMT
these widespread reports of outbreaks of tinned chickpea shortages are very troubling -
be carnage if it spreads into a hummus double whammy !!
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one21
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Post by one21 on Feb 27, 2020 0:03:33 GMT
Isn't the general consensus that once the winter is over it should start to fade away? So now we hear it is spreading rapidly in the sweltering Middle East - oh dear!
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one21
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Post by one21 on Feb 27, 2020 0:16:12 GMT
I'm tempted to put a poll up - which is the greater threat to the world, Trump or COVID-19? Isn't Trump a germaphobe there's a gag in there somewhere. Couldn't he detonate a germaphobic reaction possibly!
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 27, 2020 2:35:42 GMT
According to The Sun there's a government document titled Covid-19 Reasonable Worst Case Scenario that suggests 80% of the population might catch Coronavirus resulting in 500,000 dead. Not good obviously, but wouldn't stop society functioning (and it's only a possible scenario). Those numbers would indeed put a stress on the health service. Having said that, even the Black Death didn't affect 80% (although in a chilling parallel it did enter Europe via Italy...) So, on the one hand we have the conjecture of a totally fanciful, "what-if" scenario drawn up by a government of questionable competence, postulating a fictional catastrophe of completely unprecedented proportion, hypothesising a 1% mortality. In other words, pure speculation. On the other hand, we have the hard facts of an actual ongoing scenario to draw upon, which exhibits a far higher mortality rate. Some might feel it irrational to place one's faith in the former over the latter. Even more so when so many parallels are being drawn with the closest equivalent, the SARS coronavirus, which history has recorded as having caused 9.6% mortality.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 27, 2020 2:59:49 GMT
To see that happen you'd have to envisage an event orders of magnitude worse than the Great Depression, not to mention the deaths of hundreds of millions across the developed world, the total collapse of the global economy, and the cessation of all government function. Everywhere. Were that to be the case a) worries about the value or positioning of our portfolios would be irrelevant and b) if you think the risk is material (even if tail) your best investment would be a generator, diesel, firearms and ammunition, and some remote defensible fortress property. To which my response would be "sod it, I'll do what I can for my neighbours". Can tell you're a mere amateur at this...  . 30-odd years ago I worked with an oddball who was utterly convinced of the doomsday scenario just around the corner. He told us he'd invested in a high quality crossbow, ready for the day. He did all the training in it, regular practice, the lot. Upon questioning why a crossbow and not a pistol for example, he said the bolt can be retrieved from the corpse(!) and reused, whereas ammunition will run out. He had it all worked out and was perfectly sanguine about his survival prospects!
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 27, 2020 7:40:39 GMT
If I read it correctly, Korean psychiatric hospital on lock down. 100 (not so sure why that is a perfect round number) confirmed cases, 7 deaths. I have no idea what one shoujld read into that. Probably absolutely nothing right now as its just one scenario.
Still, a bit later I'm off for my consultant appointment at the local specialist Chest/Respitory clinic -with the backdrop of the daily news to fill me with the joys of spring sorry winter. I wish spring /summer would arrive early.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Feb 27, 2020 8:29:02 GMT
If I read it correctly, Korean psychiatric hospital on lock down. 100 (not so sure why that is a perfect round number) confirmed cases, 7 deaths. I have no idea what one shoujld read into that. Probably absolutely nothing right now as its just one scenario.
Still, a bit later I'm off for my consultant appointment at the local specialist Chest/Respitory clinic -with the backdrop of the daily news to fill me with the joys of spring sorry winter. I wish spring /summer would arrive early.
Spring Summer....no chance! It's snowing here in the Chiltern's! I've been told that viruses don't like cold! Good luck at the clinic!
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 27, 2020 8:45:33 GMT
That would be a 1% mortality then - all the armchair experts are telling me it's more like 10% or higher.Those numbers would indeed put a stress on the health service. Having said that, even the Black Death didn't affect 80% (although in a chilling parallel it did enter Europe via Italy...) So, on the one hand we have the conjecture of a totally fanciful, "what-if" scenario drawn up by a government of questionable competence, postulating a fictional catastrophe of completely unprecedented proportion, hypothesising a 1% mortality. In other words, pure speculation. On the other hand, we have the hard facts of an actual ongoing scenario to draw upon, which exhibits a far higher mortality rate. Some might feel it irrational to place one's faith in the former over the latter. Even more so when so many parallels are being drawn with the closest equivalent, the SARS coronavirus, which history has recorded as having caused 9.6% mortality. FWIW I think it extremely likely that there are a lot of mild cases undiagnosed, and that the "true" mortality rate is not the current 9% or so calculated on diagnosed cases (deaths/(recovered+deaths)). It also remains the case that it is overwhelmingly the old and already ill that are in danger. The people panicking the most (the younger and well) are those who aren't at risk from much other than the panic and all its logistical and financial manifestations, and perhaps an overwhelmed health service if they get ill from something else in the interim. I suppose pointing out that the highest mortality in the under 50's in the West is from suicide and accidents is an unwelcome intrusion here?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 27, 2020 9:06:27 GMT
FWIW I think it extremely likely that there are a lot of mild cases undiagnosed, and that the "true" mortality rate is not the current 9% or so calculated on diagnosed cases (deaths/(recovered+deaths)). It also remains the case that it is overwhelmingly the old and already ill that are in danger. The people panicking the most (the younger and well) are those who aren't at risk from much other than the panic and all its logistical and financial manifestations, and perhaps an overwhelmed health service if they get ill from something else in the interim. I suppose pointing out that the highest mortality in the under 50's in the West is from suicide and accidents is an unwelcome intrusion here? I think it is important to keep things in perspective, and I belive the profits of doom are not helping a calm and rational approach to the situation.
- In 2018 25,000 people were seriously injured in car accidents in UK, with nearly 2,000 killed. Do people stop driving their cars?
- Last year 800 people died falling down the stairs. Is there a sudden rush to live in a bungalow?
I'm still off to Tenerife next week (my hotel is about 2 miles from the one in lockdown) and if I feel ill on my return I will self isolate. However I am a bit concerned if I will be allowed to continue as an active member of the forum, as I have heard that viruses can be passed on by computers.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2020 9:55:51 GMT
It also remains the case that it is overwhelmingly the old and already ill that are in danger. The people panicking the most (the younger and well) are those who aren't at risk from much other than the panic and all its logistical and financial manifestations, and perhaps an overwhelmed health service if they get ill from something else in the interim. Ok, now this is starting to sound slightly psychopathic. I mean, god forbid that us 'younger and well' people might have elderly relatives, or sick spouses or friends that are in 'at-risk' categories and that we are rather fond of and would prefer did not die. Or even worse, die after being infected by us personally because we were complacent.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 27, 2020 10:08:29 GMT
FWIW I think it extremely likely that there are a lot of mild cases undiagnosed, and that the "true" mortality rate is not the current 9% or so calculated on diagnosed cases (deaths/(recovered+deaths)). It also remains the case that it is overwhelmingly the old and already ill that are in danger. The people panicking the most (the younger and well) are those who aren't at risk from much other than the panic and all its logistical and financial manifestations, and perhaps an overwhelmed health service if they get ill from something else in the interim. I suppose pointing out that the highest mortality in the under 50's in the West is from suicide and accidents is an unwelcome intrusion here? I think it is important to keep things in perspective, and I belive the profits of doom are not helping a calm and rational approach to the situation.
- In 2018 25,000 people were seriously injured in car accidents in UK, with nearly 2,000 killed. Do people stop driving their cars?
- Last year 800 people died falling down the stairs. Is there a sudden rush to live in a bungalow?
I'm still off to Tenerife next week (my hotel is about 2 miles from the one in lockdown) and if I feel ill on my return I will self isolate. However I am a bit concerned if I will be allowed to continue as an active member of the forum, as I have heard that viruses can be passed on by computers.Talking of which Malwarebytes are warning of Coronovirus scams, including emails etc with links to sites giving health information or for donations, which if you click on them give you (or rather your computer) a virus or other malware.
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registerme
Member of DD Central
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Post by registerme on Feb 27, 2020 10:33:41 GMT
I'm tempted to put a poll up - which is the greater threat to the world, Trump or COVID-19? Wondered how long it would take.. Oh well.. if you have to. Actually you're right, it's just Trump Trump Trump all the way. Look, I can even blame COVID-19 on him. In 2017 he signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. That resulted in ~$500m of funding to the CDC not being reinstated. www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/cuts-to-prevention-and-public-health-fund-puts-cdc-programs-at-risk-30298"By choosing not to renew the supplemental package, the CDC will reduce or stop work in 39 of 49 foreign countries focused on preventing infectious-disease epidemics and other health threats. Slashing those programs, along with financial support for PPHF, which provides infrastructure and support for some of those programs, hampers the CDC’s broader capacity to respond to and contain disease outbreaks. And, he notes, the cuts limit research innovation. The National Institutes of Health, he says, plays a valuable role in basic research to combat disease, but translation work is done by the CDC, so programs related to such research could be affected.
Such cuts will have serious consequences, Frieden says. “We’re more likely to have to fight dangerous organisms here in the U.S.” And the CDC will have less money than in the past to fight them". www.the-scientist.com/the-nutshell/cdc-to-drastically-cut-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreaks-30332"In an email to staffers reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the CDC says that it will continue global health security activities in 10 countries: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Jordan, and Guatemala. It will scale back efforts in China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda, and Congo—some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious diseases".
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