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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 28, 2020 11:20:38 GMT
The theory goes that humankind needs a pandemic or two to control population growth and cull the weak, thereby improving the resilience of the population that survive to the benefit of future generations. As unpalatable as that may seem I do wonder whether it applies equally to our capitalist economies where zombie companies persist on a neverending diet of cheap debt. Long term a pandemic may help us fight climate change and prevent our economies from falling into long periods of stagnant growth. Beat you to it...  p2pindependentforum.com/post/369863/thread
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 28, 2020 11:21:28 GMT
Just pondering that myself (although not considering selling). I suppose it boils down to asking myself which would least hurt. If I buy now and the market falls another 40%, or if I don't buy now and we're 25% up and rising by Autumn. Decisions, decisions..... I have a lump of cash to bid on a plot of land on Tuesday. If I don’t win the bid that money is going straight into VWRL. I don’t see it as losing money, I see it as a great opportunity to buy at even lower prices compared to 20 + years time. Sure, I wish I could have perfectly timed the market like mrclondon but I still don’t feel it’s genuinely possible. The time to panic sell was 1 week ago at the top of the market. He has only perfectly timed it if he rebuys at the right time! Last time I sold at the right time I didn't fully rebuy until it was too late and the market was way ahead of me again. Hence why I am buying now with some spare cash and not selling (10-20 year time frame). I am on a 5 year rebalancing plan towards S&S so a big dip rather suits me in any case.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 28, 2020 11:27:38 GMT
I'm really wavering... Cut losses and sell, or buy in? That Worldometer link from a page or two back gives me a fairly serious lean towards buying. Just pondering that myself (although not considering selling). I suppose it boils down to asking myself which would least hurt. If I buy now and the market falls another 40%, or if I don't buy now and we're 25% up and rising by Autumn. Decisions, decisions..... Is it all or nothing? Whilst the analyses say that lump sum investing is best, in any 12 month period, drip feeding does beat lump sums a third of the time. This could be one of those times. And you can sit back, avoid trying to time the market, and go and do something else instead.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Feb 28, 2020 11:43:13 GMT
Just pondering that myself (although not considering selling). I suppose it boils down to asking myself which would least hurt. If I buy now and the market falls another 40%, or if I don't buy now and we're 25% up and rising by Autumn. Decisions, decisions..... Is it all or nothing? Whilst the analyses say that lump sum investing is best, in any 12 month period, drip feeding does beat lump sums a third of the time. This could be one of those times. And you can sit back, avoid trying to time the market, and go and do something else instead. I should have clarified, I was thinking about if/when to start drip feeding in rather than a lump sum. Anyway, after reviewing my overall weightings I think I've no real need to be "greedy" at this stage. If it continues to drop I'll take some eventually, but I think I'm probably more comfortable roughly where I am at the moment, even if it shoots up again in the near term.
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Post by dan1 on Feb 28, 2020 11:43:41 GMT
The theory goes that humankind needs a pandemic or two to control population growth and cull the weak, thereby improving the resilience of the population that survive to the benefit of future generations. As unpalatable as that may seem I do wonder whether it applies equally to our capitalist economies where zombie companies persist on a neverending diet of cheap debt. Long term a pandemic may help us fight climate change and prevent our economies from falling into long periods of stagnant growth. Beat you to it... p2pindependentforum.com/post/369863/threadOoops... I'm finding it difficult to keep track because I just can't shake off this fever, dry cough and sore chest 
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 28, 2020 11:45:26 GMT
it's about how businesses can adapt to the new normal - to put it in corporate speak, how "agile" is that business <---- bugbear of mine, since when did the corporate world get to redefine the meaning of "agile". it a redefinition? "Able to move quickly and easily." "Able to think and understand quickly." www.lexico.com/en/definition/agileSeems to fit. That apart, it's been used to describe organisations and management since the 90s, at the very least... and that's ignoring the use of the word as the name of a specific software development metholodogy - itself dating to 2001.
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Post by dan1 on Feb 28, 2020 12:02:48 GMT
it's about how businesses can adapt to the new normal - to put it in corporate speak, how "agile" is that business <---- bugbear of mine, since when did the corporate world get to redefine the meaning of "agile". it a redefinition? "Able to move quickly and easily." "Able to think and understand quickly." www.lexico.com/en/definition/agileSeems to fit. That apart, it's been used to describe organisations and management since the 90s, at the very least... and that's ignoring the use of the word as the name of a specific software development metholodogy - itself dating to 2001. I would argue that what business will need to demonstrate is adaptability far more than agility in the event of a global pandemic. Yes, dealing with the outbreak will benefit from an agile response from Govts, NGOs and the like (they need to implement lock-downs, develop vaccines, etc faster) but ultimately businesses must adapt to their new environment. It's largely semantics though and not really relevant here.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 28, 2020 12:07:10 GMT
Is it a redefinition? "Able to move quickly and easily." "Able to think and understand quickly." www.lexico.com/en/definition/agileSeems to fit. That apart, it's been used to describe organisations and management since the 90s, at the very least... and that's ignoring the use of the word as the name of a specific software development metholodogy - itself dating to 2001. I would argue that what business will need to demonstrate is adaptability far more than agility in the event of a global pandemic. Adaptability's no use if it's too slow to make a difference. You can turn a supertanker round from full speed. But it isn't going to happen in time to avoid that rapidly-approaching shore.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 28, 2020 12:45:27 GMT
Well, I'm pleased to be able to say that my local Sainsburys has got plenty of hand wash / soap etc for sale. I guess us Clapham snowflakes aren't panicking yet  . |
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 28, 2020 12:46:45 GMT
Well, I'm pleased to be able to say that my local Sainsburys has got plenty of hand wash / soap etc for sale. I guess us Clapham snowflakes aren't panicking yet . Sarf Londoners are hard
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Feb 28, 2020 14:43:48 GMT
Anyone buying the dip as of yet? I'm after some more VWRL. Despite the big falls this week though, we're still only 9% off the top and where we were back in late October 2019. I might regret this, but will wait some more before starting to buy more I think. It fell by a similar % in late 2018 for practically no reason whatsoever, so seems a bit early to be buying for this situation. (totally aware that this is me market timing as much as those deciding when to sell. At least I'm still happy with staying put at current allocations if rqd!) I've cashed out 60% of my index trackers for the time being. The current trend indicates to me that panic/worry will continue to rise in the short term.
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easynow
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Popcorn anyone?
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Post by easynow on Feb 28, 2020 15:22:44 GMT
First case reported in Nigeria. Source: FT |
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 28, 2020 16:18:05 GMT
First case reported in Nigeria. Source: FT reports "The first case of the coronavirus in sub-Saharan Africa has been confirmed in Nigeria. The patient is an Italian citizen who works in Nigeria and flew into the commercial city of Lagos from Milan on 25 February."
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one21
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Post by one21 on Feb 28, 2020 16:27:22 GMT
Ah now we know! Apparently the reason germs spread more in the winter is because the air is drier! You wouldn’t think so with all this rain! “Thanks to the laws of thermodynamics, cold air can carry less water vapour before it reaches the “dew point” and falls as rain. So while the weather outside may seem wetter, the air itself is drier as it loses the moisture. And a steady stream of research over the past few years has shown that these dry conditions seem to offer the perfect environment for the flu virus to flourish.” “That’s counter-intuitive – we normally think that the damp makes us ill, rather than protects us from disease. But to understand why, you need to grasp the peculiar dynamics of our coughs and sneezes. Any time we splutter with a cold, we expel a mist of particles from our nose and mouths. In moist air, these particles may remain relatively large, and drop to the floor. But in dry air, they break up into smaller pieces – eventually becoming so small that they can stay aloft for hours or days. (It’s a bit like the mist you get when you turn a hose pipe to its finest spray.) The result is that in winter, you are breathing a cocktail of dead cells, mucus and viruses from anyone and everyone who has visited the room recently.” Read on here :- www.bbc.com/future/article/20151016-the-real-reason-germs-spread-in-the-winterAlthough I'm still not sure why it is spreading in warmer climates! Edit - Although I suppose it could be from physical contact of surfaces rather than airbourne sources. |
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Post by wiseclerk on Feb 28, 2020 16:57:45 GMT
I'd rather follow these arguments
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