r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Feb 28, 2020 17:30:16 GMT
In amongst the stock market rout, GBP is also taking a reasonable size pasting I notice, from GBPEUR 1.20 beaten down to 1.16 and GBPUSD 1.32 to 1.28 over the last few days. Nothing to do with the flu. Apparently due to B-word posturing. I was rather hoping (but not expecting) that all of that would just go away forever. I think I'd rather have a dose of COVID-19 injected under my toenail with a rusty needle than repeat the last 3 years of debate. |
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one21
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Post by one21 on Feb 28, 2020 17:39:52 GMT
I'd rather follow these arguments Hmm, even so their arguments still do not detract from scientific fact that warm humid air deters spread and cold dry air assist in the spread! Obviously, overcrowded enclosed spaces are going to be a major factor any time of year.
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Feb 28, 2020 18:14:49 GMT
I've cashed out 60% of my index trackers for the time being. The current trend indicates to me that panic/worry will continue to rise in the short term. here is a comparison of the "drops and pops" in the 2000 and 2007 market drops:  If the current drop is in a similar realm, it looks to have only started, and likely has a good way left to go.
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jj
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Jolly Jammy
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Post by jj on Feb 28, 2020 18:51:12 GMT
In these condtions it's better to know your ABC's if you catch my drift.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 28, 2020 20:43:11 GMT
Let's not all panic, although not one of the worst flu years 1 - 2 million died in the 1957/58 flu, my father was one who was quite ill but recovered, as I remember, we just looked after him at home, which should happen for most people this time around.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 28, 2020 23:28:34 GMT
 Worth it, just because.
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jester
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Post by jester on Feb 29, 2020 7:09:12 GMT
Anyone buying the dip as of yet? I've just had a nibble at 13% down from the peak. I invest monthly into global trackers but was keen to top up further (as I reduce P2P) so this seems like the opportunity. No doubt it'll drop further but I'll buy more if it does significantly. With 20+ yrs to retirement my only aim is to increase my holdings (at lower prices when possible)
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Feb 29, 2020 9:05:23 GMT
Anyone buying the dip as of yet? I've just had a nibble at 13% down from the peak. I invest monthly into global trackers but was keen to top up further (as I reduce P2P) so this seems like the opportunity. No doubt it'll drop further but I'll buy more if it does significantly. With 20+ yrs to retirement my only aim is to increase my holdings (at lower prices when possible) I bought on Friday as well. I’m much more comfortable buying at prices from here downwards than I was 1 week ago, but usually maintain as close to 100% equities as I can. If only I could get my hands on some of my Collateral money!
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Post by southseacompany on Feb 29, 2020 10:39:02 GMT
If anyone still thinks the pandemic is just causing a fall in market sentiment, you might want to take a look at the economic data coming from China to see how it is affecting the real economy.
Given the supply chain disruptions, big problems in manufactured goods were to be expected, like new car sales being down 90% in February so far, and manufacturing purchase managers' index falling to 35.7, a record low. But the real story is demand suppression, because the non-manufacturing PMI just fell to 28.9, by far the lowest reading ever. This index did not fall below 50 at any point during the Lehman crisis or since.
Sure, stocks are down from the beginning of the year by around 10%, but if things in the rest of the world get even a fraction as bad as in China, earnings will go down by more than that. Thus (on a short-term forward earnings basis) valuations are now higher than three months ago.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 29, 2020 12:06:22 GMT
If samford71 theory is correct, given that it's on the front cover of the Economist this week, we'll be at peak fear right about now. |
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 29, 2020 14:31:51 GMT
Tenerife might be a good holiday destination after all. The Times reporting "Free drinks lift spirits at the Tenerife hotel locked by coronavirus" - they've been upgraded (one hopes at no cost) to all-inclusive packages.
Out shopping this morning, no sign of anybody wearing a face mask or of any panic buying of food, which is good.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 29, 2020 14:49:27 GMT
One thing that bothers me, a lot, is the current US administration's handling of this. Putting the boot into Trump, whilst sometimes amusing, also gets tired pretty quickly. But right now the public face of the administration's response is... downright dangerous  . |
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Post by martin44 on Feb 29, 2020 20:26:45 GMT
COVID-29 or whatever its called has apparently now reached Dewsbury... its ok in dewsbury but............  |
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Post by martin44 on Feb 29, 2020 20:35:47 GMT
Wondered how long it would take.. Oh well.. if you have to.  Actually you're right, it's just Trump Trump Trump all the way. Look, I can even blame COVID-19 on him. In 2017 he signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. That resulted in ~$500m of funding to the CDC not being reinstated. www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/cuts-to-prevention-and-public-health-fund-puts-cdc-programs-at-risk-30298"By choosing not to renew the supplemental package, the CDC will reduce or stop work in 39 of 49 foreign countries focused on preventing infectious-disease epidemics and other health threats. Slashing those programs, along with financial support for PPHF, which provides infrastructure and support for some of those programs, hampers the CDC’s broader capacity to respond to and contain disease outbreaks. And, he notes, the cuts limit research innovation. The National Institutes of Health, he says, plays a valuable role in basic research to combat disease, but translation work is done by the CDC, so programs related to such research could be affected.
Such cuts will have serious consequences, Frieden says. “We’re more likely to have to fight dangerous organisms here in the U.S.” And the CDC will have less money than in the past to fight them". www.the-scientist.com/the-nutshell/cdc-to-drastically-cut-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreaks-30332"In an email to staffers reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the CDC says that it will continue global health security activities in 10 countries: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Jordan, and Guatemala. It will scale back efforts in China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda, and Congo—some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious diseases".Thanks for that. 
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 1, 2020 12:23:30 GMT
I note the number of Recovered cases globally (42626) has today surpassed the number of Active (currently infected) cases globally (42050), for the first time.
I take that as an indication that it's gradually dying out rather than increasing.
Maybe simplistic/naive, but it seems a step in the right direction.
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