|
Post by bracknellboy on Aug 2, 2020 19:11:24 GMT
Spanish flu variant (H1N1) still in circulation as seasonal flu (and still killing people). But not killing 50m a year, and having mutated / died out without the need for vacination or fancy drugs (just wait 2 years and it will sort itself out?) en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_fluThis entry is interesting background reading. It actually says what I had previously understood, but am not sure of. Namely that the specific circumstances of the world at that time massively contributed to both infection rates and virulence.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 3, 2020 20:44:19 GMT
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 4, 2020 12:52:23 GMT
Really interesting twitter thread by an Italian statistician on the results of a nationwide Italian seroprevalence study of 64,000 people:
2.5% had IgG antibodies, implied infection fatality rate 1.7% (let's hope those antibodies fade fast/never properly develop to be detected and the true IFR is much less). Asymptomatic rate was 27%.
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Aug 4, 2020 16:01:19 GMT
Really interesting twitter thread by an Italian statistician on the results of a nationwide Italian seroprevalence study of 64,000 people: 2.5% had IgG antibodies, implied infection fatality rate 1.7% ( let's hope those antibodies fade fast/never properly develop to be detected and the true IFR is much less). Asymptomatic rate was 27%. Lets hope that isn't the case...otherwise the implications for a vaccine are likely pretty bleak. I'd trade a higher IFR for prospect of an effective vaccine.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 4, 2020 16:33:26 GMT
Really interesting twitter thread by an Italian statistician on the results of a nationwide Italian seroprevalence study of 64,000 people: 2.5% had IgG antibodies, implied infection fatality rate 1.7% ( let's hope those antibodies fade fast/never properly develop to be detected and the true IFR is much less). Asymptomatic rate was 27%. Lets hope that isn't the case...otherwise the implications for a vaccine are likely pretty bleak. I'd trade a higher IFR for prospect of an effective vaccine. You may be right and only time will tell. T cells come to mind both in terms of long term immunity and perhaps some existing immunity from common cold coronaviruses. I'm not too sure that I like relying on hope at this current juncture! My views are probably influenced by the expectation that I'll catch it before I get the chance to be vaccinated (if, of course, take nothing for granted). Btw I was fascinated to learn that there are as many 70+ year olds in Italy as 0-18 year olds.
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Aug 8, 2020 9:13:04 GMT
Mail Online reports "Lockdown 'killed two people for every three that died of coronavirus': 16,000 people in the UK died in five weeks as hospitals shut down to deal with COVID while 25,000 died from the virus". Similar story in The Telegraph
Taken from "DHSC/ONS/GAD/HO: Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity, 15 July 2020" Gov.uk report ( PDF)
From the Telegraph: "The estimates show that 16,000 people had died through missed medical care by May 1, while coronavirus killed 25,000 in the same period. The figures include 6,000 people who did not attend A&E at the height of lockdown ... Likewise, 10,000 people are thought to have died in care homes due to early discharge from hospital and not being able to access critical care."
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,496
Likes: 923
|
Post by aju on Aug 8, 2020 10:59:15 GMT
This recent BBC documentary is worrying. "Twin brothers Chris and Xand van Tulleken, both doctors, share their personal and professional experiences of Covid-19." Its quite interesting in that the bigger problem might be moving forward for those that were fortunate not to die. I'm not sure if I am more scared than I was yesterday afternoon before watching it.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Aug 8, 2020 11:30:19 GMT
Mail Online reports "Lockdown 'killed two people for every three that died of coronavirus': 16,000 people in the UK died in five weeks as hospitals shut down to deal with COVID while 25,000 died from the virus". Similar story in The Telegraph
Taken from "DHSC/ONS/GAD/HO: Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity, 15 July 2020" Gov.uk report ( PDF)
From the Telegraph: "The estimates show that 16,000 people had died through missed medical care by May 1, while coronavirus killed 25,000 in the same period. The figures include 6,000 people who did not attend A&E at the height of lockdown ... Likewise, 10,000 people are thought to have died in care homes due to early discharge from hospital and not being able to access critical care."
I suspect that underestimates deaths from lockdown (eg the increased suicide rate, which is the largest cause of death in under 50s in the West)
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Aug 8, 2020 12:23:00 GMT
Case Fatality Rate in Spain now 0.15%.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 8, 2020 12:55:36 GMT
Case Fatality Rate in Spain now 0.15%. Saw this ^ r00lish67 and thought of your post.... Added deaths/cases for 19/06/2020: 173/1346 Cases trendline staying stubbornly level Admittedly I don't follow this as closely as others, but it really does seem a very long tail unfortunately. Spain should have been a good comparison, however unfortunately they've decided just to effectively lie about theirs. I'm not even quite sure why. (if you were to believe the Spanish Govt's statistics, they had an average death count of approx 200 per day in the weeks prior to May 26th. Since then, the date they changed how they counted things, not one single death from COVID-19 ) The rapid fall in CFR seems to coincide quite nicely.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Aug 8, 2020 14:19:01 GMT
yep, all CFRs vitally dependent on quality/reliability of underlying data.
|
|
starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 298
Likes: 216
|
Post by starfished on Aug 8, 2020 14:30:30 GMT
Which is why excess deaths analysis (from all death causes) is such a powerful tool.
Not sure if posted before but the recent ONS data on this was pretty fascinating. For instance when you compared say Germany and the UK or looked at Rome given the wider impact on Italy.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Aug 8, 2020 14:53:57 GMT
Which is why excess deaths analysis (from all death causes) is such a powerful tool. Not sure if posted before but the recent ONS data on this was pretty fascinating. For instance when you compared say Germany and the UK or looked at Rome given the wider impact on Italy. but doesn't tell you how many deaths are directly caused by the virus and how many are caused by attempts to mitigate the virus (or fear of the virus)
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 8, 2020 16:36:42 GMT
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Aug 9, 2020 7:45:06 GMT
I think it is also relevant that CFR and IFR will vary hugely by age. If one looks at a global IFR - arguably the "correct" one - the population is young and the IFR is relatively low. Looking at Europe/US, where populations are older, the IFR will be significantly higher.
It is interesting to me that as the observed fatality of the virus reduces, people/the media seem to be changing their focus/anxiety onto "long covid", where the actual impact of coronavirus on the overall ill-health and disability burden is even less significant compared the the effects of other infectious agents and non-infectious health conditions. Much wheel re-inventing is going on.
|
|