IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 9, 2020 7:51:38 GMT
My worst hangovers are usually on a Saturday. Recording COVID-19 deaths is fraught with problems, and there are both under- and over-estimates. Even the oft-used "excess deaths" is problematic as changing from a National Health Service to a COVID Health Service has killed many people with non-COVID conditions. I have a friend whose elderly relative was on their last legs with terminal cancer, and who was recorded as a COVID-19 death. The family fought to have this taken off the record as to them it was nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with the cancer they had helped their loved one through for some years.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 9, 2020 8:14:04 GMT
My worst hangovers are usually on a Saturday. Recording COVID-19 deaths is fraught with problems, and there are both under- and over-estimates. Even the oft-used "excess deaths" is problematic as changing from a National Health Service to a COVID Health Service has killed many people with non-COVID conditions. I have a friend whose elderly relative was on their last legs with terminal cancer, and who was recorded as a COVID-19 death. The family fought to have this taken off the record as to them it was nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with the cancer they had helped their loved one through for some years. Wouldn't the excess deaths methodology still cater for that example, though? Isn't it the point that it measures all deaths to look at overall change?
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Aug 9, 2020 8:19:58 GMT
My worst hangovers are usually on a Saturday. Recording COVID-19 deaths is fraught with problems, and there are both under- and over-estimates. Even the oft-used "excess deaths" is problematic as changing from a National Health Service to a COVID Health Service has killed many people with non-COVID conditions. I have a friend whose elderly relative was on their last legs with terminal cancer, and who was recorded as a COVID-19 death. The family fought to have this taken off the record as to them it was nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with the cancer they had helped their loved one through for some years. Wouldn't the excess deaths methodology still cater for that example, though? Isn't it the point that it measures all deaths to look at overall change? Precisely. So in time the true impact can be hopefully assessed not distorted by over recording (see Belgium). We can then assess a myriad of factors including lockdown effacy and consequences (see Sweden or NZ) etc.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 9, 2020 8:20:55 GMT
Having now taken up residence in Poland I can report that COVID conditions are, to all intents are purposes, the opposite of Spain.
Even though mask-wearing is mandated in shops/transport, only 75% or so of people do. I have heard several choirs having a good old lung clearout around. Church services continue. Social distancing just does not exist, at all, beyond a few restaurant tables being moved slightly further apart. The supermarket queue is exactly the same as pre-COVID.
To be fair, I think the very low level of virus to date has bred this level of complacency. However, as with Ukraine and Romania, cases have ticked up in the last 10 days or so, to over 800 a day now.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 9, 2020 8:35:54 GMT
My worst hangovers are usually on a Saturday. Recording COVID-19 deaths is fraught with problems, and there are both under- and over-estimates. Even the oft-used "excess deaths" is problematic as changing from a National Health Service to a COVID Health Service has killed many people with non-COVID conditions. I have a friend whose elderly relative was on their last legs with terminal cancer, and who was recorded as a COVID-19 death. The family fought to have this taken off the record as to them it was nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with the cancer they had helped their loved one through for some years. Wouldn't the excess deaths methodology still cater for that example, though? Isn't it the point that it measures all deaths to look at overall change? That example yes. But not the other friend's brother who didn't attend hospital with chest pain for fear of catching corona (a decision reinforced by doctors), and who then dropped down dead the next day from a heart attack. A non-COVID excess death (probably - he may of course have died even had he gone to hospital, had an ECG, and been admitted for an angiogram and stent, but at 50 he'd have been expected to survive).
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 9, 2020 8:45:23 GMT
Having now taken up residence in Poland I can report that COVID conditions are, to all intents are purposes, the opposite of Spain. Even though mask-wearing is mandated in shops/transport, only 75% or so of people do. I have heard several choirs having a good old lung clearout around. Church services continue. Social distancing just does not exist, at all, beyond a few restaurant tables being moved slightly further apart. The supermarket queue is exactly the same as pre-COVID. To be fair, I think the very low level of virus to date has bred this level of complacency. However, as with Ukraine and Romania, cases have ticked up in the last 10 days or so, to over 800 a day now. Regions (note - not countries, I don't know why we are obsessed with what happens by country as if the virus can recognise political geography!) that had lower initial infections are more susceptible to a larger second wave now. Basic epidemiology (and what happened in previous pandemics).
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 9, 2020 8:56:42 GMT
Having now taken up residence in Poland I can report that COVID conditions are, to all intents are purposes, the opposite of Spain. Even though mask-wearing is mandated in shops/transport, only 75% or so of people do. I have heard several choirs having a good old lung clearout around. Church services continue. Social distancing just does not exist, at all, beyond a few restaurant tables being moved slightly further apart. The supermarket queue is exactly the same as pre-COVID. To be fair, I think the very low level of virus to date has bred this level of complacency. However, as with Ukraine and Romania, cases have ticked up in the last 10 days or so, to over 800 a day now. Regions (note - not countries, I don't know why we are obsessed with what happens by country as if the virus can recognise political geography!) that had lower initial infections are more susceptible to a larger second wave now. Basic epidemiology (and what happened in previous pandemics). Sure, but wouldn't politicians decisions based around political borders have a potentially strong influence too ? e.g. if Poland declared a lockdown earlier than Germany and closed their borders, wouldn't we see a differing viral profile across political borders despite being geographically proximate? Likewise, if, say, Germany set huge fines for non-mask wearing whilst the Czech republic didn't, then we'd probably see greater use of masks in Germany and perhaps less spread within that part of the geographic region than the other?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 9, 2020 9:04:16 GMT
Regions (note - not countries, I don't know why we are obsessed with what happens by country as if the virus can recognise political geography!) that had lower initial infections are more susceptible to a larger second wave now. Basic epidemiology (and what happened in previous pandemics). Sure, but wouldn't politicians decisions based around political borders have a potentially strong influence too ? e.g. if Poland declared a lockdown earlier than Germany and closed their borders, wouldn't we see a differing viral profile across political borders despite being geographically proximate? Likewise, if, say, Germany set huge fines for non-mask wearing whilst the Czech republic didn't, then we'd probably see greater use of masks in Germany and perhaps less spread within that part of the geographic region than the other? Up to a point yes - eg New Zealand especially, with geographical isolation and strict quarantine. But I think other factors very important - eg urban areas hit much more than rural regardless of political decisions around lockdown, and local/regional outbreaks are now the pattern rather than uniform spread by country.
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Post by dan1 on Aug 9, 2020 9:30:02 GMT
The tweet from Prof Francois Balloux is lingering in my consciousness He's an expert in the field, from Wikipedia: He's got a responsibility when he tweets. I feel a far greater depth of feeling when an expert in their field misinforms than when politicians do what they do - we had a choice at the ballot box. At face value the chart in his tweet hs merit. You'd expect the CFR to fall dramatically over time due to a number of factors: increase in testing, improved treatment, infections increasingly through the young and healthy population as distinct from the elderly/pre-existing medical conditions. However, alarm bells were raised initially because it included data as recent as 6 Aug - I don't understand how you can quote a CFR, even averaged over 14 days, when you don't yet know the number of deaths (it takes time to die of Covid). Regardless, I looked at the numerator on OWID and it's clear as day the reporting has changed and is backed up by a note "Apr 25: methodology changed". If I can do a few minutes of elementary research why can't this chap? I'm sorry, but I've catagorised this chap along with John "Jet Blue" Ioannidis
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 9, 2020 10:13:16 GMT
Having now taken up residence in Poland I can report that COVID conditions are, to all intents are purposes, the opposite of Spain. Even though mask-wearing is mandated in shops/transport, only 75% or so of people do. I have heard several choirs having a good old lung clearout around. Church services continue. Social distancing just does not exist, at all, beyond a few restaurant tables being moved slightly further apart. The supermarket queue is exactly the same as pre-COVID. To be fair, I think the very low level of virus to date has bred this level of complacency. However, as with Ukraine and Romania, cases have ticked up in the last 10 days or so, to over 800 a day now. I'm in Ukraine and that does sound familiar. Main difference is people are wearing them in shops. Once I forgot to take mine to my small corner shop and they shouted at me "...biz mask....something or other..." and I had to go and get one. However as with your report in Poland, social distancing is minimal and the cases are slowly moving up but nothing like exponentially so touch wood no second wave.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 9, 2020 10:43:56 GMT
.....but nothing like exponentially so touch wood no second wave. I hope they're careful with their exponents :/.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Aug 9, 2020 17:17:34 GMT
Daily cases at 1062 today ( link), first time above 1,000 since 26 June and highest number since 21 June, hopefully only due to increased testing.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 9, 2020 17:40:17 GMT
Daily cases at 1062 today ( link), first time above 1,000 since 26 June and highest number since 21 June, hopefully only due to increased testing. There was an article on the current virus rate on the BBC website recently. Experts were saying that the increase in the number of people with the virus had levelled out, compared to the rising rate over the last 4 weeks.
Hopefully they are correct.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 10, 2020 10:26:03 GMT
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Aug 10, 2020 10:29:32 GMT
Things must be good if 'man falls off bike' is front page news.
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