agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 10, 2020 10:39:52 GMT
Things must be good if 'man falls off bike' is front page news. But it was Mr Smarmy bastard himself.
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 10, 2020 10:43:37 GMT
The tweet from Prof Francois Balloux is lingering in my consciousness He's an expert in the field, from Wikipedia: He's got a responsibility when he tweets. I feel a far greater depth of feeling when an expert in their field misinforms than when politicians do what they do - we had a choice at the ballot box. At face value the chart in his tweet hs merit. You'd expect the CFR to fall dramatically over time due to a number of factors: increase in testing, improved treatment, infections increasingly through the young and healthy population as distinct from the elderly/pre-existing medical conditions. However, alarm bells were raised initially because it included data as recent as 6 Aug - I don't understand how you can quote a CFR, even averaged over 14 days, when you don't yet know the number of deaths (it takes time to die of Covid). Regardless, I looked at the numerator on OWID and it's clear as day the reporting has changed and is backed up by a note "Apr 25: methodology changed". If I can do a few minutes of elementary research why can't this chap? I'm sorry, but I've catagorised this chap along with John "Jet Blue" Ioannidis Somebody further up this thread wasn't happy with HIS iffy science way back in April...π p2pindependentforum.com/post/379827/threadUS now at 165k deaths π
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 10, 2020 11:21:36 GMT
If there was ever a front page to reinforce my view of the Daily Express that's it. EDIT: Not sure why it didn't quote the image but that was what I was referring to.
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Post by Ton βββ on Aug 10, 2020 12:32:33 GMT
If there was ever a front page to reinforce my view of the Daily Express that's it. EDIT: Not sure why it didn't quote the image but that was what I was referring to.
The paper has standards too
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 10, 2020 15:45:20 GMT
Not sure that we are anywhere near understanding all Covid-19 effects let alone beating the thing, if that's the right term even, surely it will only go away when its good and ready!... The thing that bothers me is the fascination with daily deaths, what about all those people who did not die but are now having other issues and covid complications. Seems to me that this is going to baffle a good few experts for quite a while before its resolved. (Not sure i'd be placing that much credence on the the Daily Express either!).
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Post by dan1 on Aug 10, 2020 19:47:56 GMT
I've seen some headlines on the uptake rate if/when a vaccine is rolled out to the population. I've not looked into the details but they appear to be reporting the results of a study by KCL... www.kcl.ac.uk/news/whos-most-likely-to-refuse-a-covid-19-vaccineAnyway, I thought it may be decent poll question. The poll author can't edit a poll once posted hence this post to road test the Q and possible answers. Q. If a vaccine for Coronavirus becomes available, would you get the vaccine? A's (one of...) - Yes, as soon as it is offered - Yes, but only some time after it becomes available - Probably - Undecided - Probably not - No, definately not ~~~ As an aside, it's worth reflecting that herd immunity can be achieved by a combination of prior infection and vaccine. That begs the question of what the correlation is between exposure to infection and uptake of the vaccine. Perhaps it's wishful thinking but those who won't get vaccinated may also be those unwilling to abide by mask wearing or social distancing and are therefore more likely to have been infected. Besides, if we can vaccinate 50% (of the world one assumes!) then perhaps that'll be enough?
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Aug 10, 2020 20:34:04 GMT
Anyway, I thought it may be decent poll question. The poll author can't edit a poll once posted hence this post to road test the Q and possible answers. Q. If a vaccine for Coronavirus becomes available, would you get the vaccine? A's (one of...) - Yes, as soon as it is offered - Yes, but only some time after it becomes available - Probably - Undecided - Probably not - No, definately not Is the third answer (Probably) needed? I think between them the 2nd and 4th answers cater for those in or around the 'probably' group. Presumably the second is allowing time for negative influences to affect a straight 'yes' answer; and the 4th / 5th cover things from the opposite direction. (And you should definately definitely use a spell checker before committing the poll )
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 10, 2020 20:48:30 GMT
I've seen some headlines on the uptake rate if/when a vaccine is rolled out to the population. I've not looked into the details but they appear to be reporting the results of a study by KCL... www.kcl.ac.uk/news/whos-most-likely-to-refuse-a-covid-19-vaccineAnyway, I thought it may be decent poll question. The poll author can't edit a poll once posted hence this post to road test the Q and possible answers. Q. If a vaccine for Coronavirus becomes available, would you get the vaccine? A's (one of...) - Yes, as soon as it is offered - Yes, but only some time after it becomes available - Probably - Undecided - Probably not - No, definately not ~~~ As an aside, it's worth reflecting that herd immunity can be achieved by a combination of prior infection and vaccine. That begs the question of what the correlation is between exposure to infection and uptake of the vaccine. Perhaps it's wishful thinking but those who won't get vaccinated may also be those unwilling to abide by mask wearing or social distancing and are therefore more likely to have been infected. Besides, if we can vaccinate 50% (of the world one assumes!) then perhaps that'll be enough? Maybe option one needs splitting:
- Yes, as soon as it is available on the NHS
- Yes, would be happy to pay to be vacinated privately if that option was available
Personally, I don't care if others don't want it. That will just be a shorter queue for me.
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 11, 2020 6:29:49 GMT
I've seen some headlines on the uptake rate if/when a vaccine is rolled out to the population. I've not looked into the details but they appear to be reporting the results of a study by KCL... www.kcl.ac.uk/news/whos-most-likely-to-refuse-a-covid-19-vaccineAnyway, I thought it may be decent poll question. The poll author can't edit a poll once posted hence this post to road test the Q and possible answers. Q. If a vaccine for Coronavirus becomes available, would you get the vaccine? A's (one of...) - Yes, as soon as it is offered - Yes, but only some time after it becomes available - Probably - Undecided - Probably not - No, definately not ~~~ As an aside, it's worth reflecting that herd immunity can be achieved by a combination of prior infection and vaccine. That begs the question of what the correlation is between exposure to infection and uptake of the vaccine. Perhaps it's wishful thinking but those who won't get vaccinated may also be those unwilling to abide by mask wearing or social distancing and are therefore more likely to have been infected. Besides, if we can vaccinate 50% (of the world one assumes!) then perhaps that'll be enough? How about: I'll follow the scientific advise ? :-)
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Post by dan1 on Aug 11, 2020 10:03:05 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 11, 2020 13:24:07 GMT
Praise be! Sputnik 5 has arrived. We're all safe. www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/russia-approves-coronavirus-vaccine-despite-testing-safety-concerns-vladimir-putinMost and especially the press will be sceptical. I'm not. They've skipped the final large scale test. I suspect there are ethical arguments about testing different vaccines differently and yet it does seem to be a one size fits all approach that the west takes. e.g. If covid was killing 100x more than it currently is, presumably there'd be even more of an argument to release a less tested vaccine. Conversley a disease which isn't claiming many lives at all probably wouldn't justify mass vaccination at all. Hence a sliding scale of tests and Russia has decided to be first - no doubt in part due to the "prestige" value but not only that I suspect. All in all this is good news IMO.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 11, 2020 14:07:40 GMT
Stepping away from the detail for a moment, what's the mood of people here at the moment w.r.t COVID?
Obviously this is going to drastically differ based on age, health, tolerance for risk and perhaps even location, but I'd be interested to know.
Personally (speaking as a reasonably healthy male in his 30's) I was somewhat fearful/alarmed in March, distinctly wary until about June, and now....well...
Rightly or wrongly, I'm not now feeling particularly fearful or wary. That's probably partially a (I hope) rational assessment of the low risk in my case of contracting a severe case of it, and partially just a 'life must go on' attitude after so many months.
I hasten to add I still very much abide by all regulations where I am and do my utmost to keep distant from the elderly especially. But, I'm not washing my hands every 5 seconds and applying antiseptic to doorhandles anymore, and obviously this could all change dramatically in the Winter and/or if the virus mutates.
Am I being too carefree in the circumstances? I don't know, you tell me. (I'm in central Europe for whatever difference that makes)
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Aug 11, 2020 14:15:36 GMT
Praise be! Sputnik 5 has arrived. We're all safe. www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/russia-approves-coronavirus-vaccine-despite-testing-safety-concerns-vladimir-putinMost and especially the press will be sceptical. I'm not. They've skipped the final large scale test. I suspect there are ethical arguments about testing different vaccines differently and yet it does seem to be a one size fits all approach that the west takes. e.g. If covid was killing 100x more than it currently is, presumably there'd be even more of an argument to release a less tested vaccine. Conversley a disease which isn't claiming many lives at all probably wouldn't justify mass vaccination at all. Hence a sliding scale of tests and Russia has decided to be first - no doubt in part due to the "prestige" value but not only that I suspect. All in all this is good news IMO. I'm sure they have some form of vaccine, we have too, none of them have been fully tested yet although maybe the Russians have been doing trials on volunteers already and have got a bit ahead of the game, hopefully we will be doing that soon. But particularly, how do the Russians know it gives immunity for two years? How long any vaccine might last seems to be one of the really unknown quantities. Side effects from a poorly tested vaccine could also be a serious problem too.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Aug 11, 2020 14:21:06 GMT
Praise be! Sputnik 5 has arrived. We're all safe. www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/russia-approves-coronavirus-vaccine-despite-testing-safety-concerns-vladimir-putinMost and especially the press will be sceptical. I'm not. They've skipped the final large scale test. I suspect there are ethical arguments about testing different vaccines differently and yet it does seem to be a one size fits all approach that the west takes. e.g. If covid was killing 100x more than it currently is, presumably there'd be even more of an argument to release a less tested vaccine. Conversley a disease which isn't claiming many lives at all probably wouldn't justify mass vaccination at all. Hence a sliding scale of tests and Russia has decided to be first - no doubt in part due to the "prestige" value but not only that I suspect. All in all this is good news IMO. Are they Zek pj s? They look very new.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Aug 11, 2020 14:21:42 GMT
Stepping away from the detail for a moment, what's the mood of people here at the moment w.r.t COVID? Obviously this is going to drastically differ based on age, health, tolerance for risk and perhaps even location, but I'd be interested to know. Personally (speaking as a reasonably healthy male in his 30's) I was somewhat fearful/alarmed in March, distinctly wary until about June, and now....well... Rightly or wrongly, I'm not now feeling particularly fearful or wary. That's probably partially a (I hope) rational assessment of the low risk in my case of contracting a severe case of it, and partially just a 'life must go on' attitude after so many months. I hasten to add I still very much abide by all regulations where I am and do my utmost to keep distant from the elderly especially. But, I'm not washing my hands every 5 seconds and applying antiseptic to doorhandles anymore, and obviously this could all change dramatically in the Winter and/or if the virus mutates. Am I being too carefree in the circumstances? I don't know, you tell me. (I'm in central Europe for whatever difference that makes) I wouldn't say I'm carefree, but I do feel treatments are getting better, and the hospitals are not overflowing with Covid patients so I would definitely be less concerned about catching it now than two months ago. Still taking all precautions though.
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