benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 22, 2020 11:24:30 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 22, 2020 12:20:31 GMT
Good news Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection from SARS-1 CoV-2 in humans during a fishery vessel outbreak with high attack ratewww.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1A study of an outbreak on a fishing vessel with 122 people onboard. Three had antibodies prior to departure and were not infected in the outbreak whereas 85% of those onboard were. A very small closed group but encouraging nonetheless.The only downside is that you'd expect a lower infection rate if there were widespread pre-existing immunity from, for example, the common cold Coronavirus. Yes the 122 is small BUT the probability of a sample of 3 random people not being infected on that boat is 0.33% or around 1 in 300. So I view this as indeed encouraging.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 22, 2020 15:42:45 GMT
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slippery
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Post by slippery on Aug 22, 2020 23:28:24 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000m0ggQuite interesting Radio 4 "The Inquiry" on vaccine. Especially about 5 minutes in, about vaccines not having to be effective for 100% people.
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 23, 2020 18:33:50 GMT
Good news Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection from SARS-1 CoV-2 in humans during a fishery vessel outbreak with high attack ratewww.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1A study of an outbreak on a fishing vessel with 122 people onboard. Three had antibodies prior to departure and were not infected in the outbreak whereas 85% of those onboard were. A very small closed group but encouraging nonetheless.The only downside is that you'd expect a lower infection rate if there were widespread pre-existing immunity from, for example, the common cold Coronavirus. Yes the 122 is small BUT the probability of a sample of 3 random people not being infected on that boat is 0.33% or around 1 in 300. So I view this as indeed encouraging. michaelc , whilst I'm sure your conclusion is sound, I believe the true probability is some 15% lower than the figure above. I'm surprised none of the mathematicians on here have picked up on this fascinating question, we being a pedantic bunch by & large... or perhaps that's just me! 😁 I'm no guru of combinatorics, so fully prepared to be shot down, but my working follows. (I suspect you've calculated 15% cubed to arrive at 0.3375% ?) 104 were infected (85%) and 18 were uninfected (15%). The probability of a random trio being uninfected is 18/122 * 17/121 * 16/120 = 0.28%Another way of arriving at this same figure is there are 295,240 possible ways of choosing a trio from the entire 122 on board (=122!/(119!*3!)) and there are 816 possible ways of selecting an uninfected trio from the group of 18 uninfected (=18!/(15!*3!). The probability of randomly selecting an uninfected trio from the ship is therefore 816/295,240 = 0.28%
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 24, 2020 15:38:07 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 27, 2020 13:47:43 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 29, 2020 19:19:38 GMT
Novak Djokovic - First comes out as an anti-vaxxer, and now has created a dangerous health situation by organising a tennis event at which various people contracted the virus. Then compounds his actions by choosing not to be tested immediately despite even his coach contracting it, before flying home because he "felt fine", and is now found to have contracted it too, as well as his wife. Yet, the man who has actively created a hazardous health situation whilst advocating against any potential vaccine for it, says he is acting "with a pure heart" What an utter idiot. Indeed. He'll make an interesting case study regarding long term effects of the virus. A 5% drop in lung function may not be picked up in a regular Joe but would be disastrous for a 30+ elite sports person. Future results will be the acid test. He has done it.
Novak Djokovic made history on Saturday, defeating Milos Raonic 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 to win the Western & Southern Open and complete his second Career Golden Masters
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 1, 2020 15:16:01 GMT
Apologies in advance, this will probably be poorly structured / not a clear question but.... help me understand something (probably directed at IFISAcava but would welcome anybody else's thoughts). The full UK lockdown started on the 23rd March. Five months ago and counting. Back at the beginning I'd go shopping every three or four days, picking up what was available. As the situation normalised I reverted to going daily, but observed social distancing where possible (ie queuing), but navigating supermarket aisles was... difficult. More recently, to observe the new rules / guidance, I've taken to wearing a mask when in a shop. Prior to the relaxation of the rules I didn't go out socialising once. Since the relaxation I have been out (though less than before) and have observed the rules (probably some blur around the edges when I've had one too many). I live in Lambeth, in London. In spite of all of the above I find it very hard to believe that I have had zero exposure to COVID-19. Just going to the supermarket daily probably sees me encounter more than a hundred people. The chances of me not encountering somebody who was asymptomatic prior to the lockdown must have been slim (especially given the number of people who now say they think they had it and that I met up with prior to lockdown). So a bunch of questions:- 1. Has any modelling been done on this? 2. What's the medical profession's view on required viral load necessary to cause an infection (presumably a range influenced by x, y and z)? 3. Does one virion entering my body mean I've been infected? 4. Related to 2 and 3. - can you be exposed and not be infected? 5. How much impact does personal hygiene / observing social distancing guidelines etc have on how infectious COVID-19 is? I guess some of my confusion arises around the definitions of exposure, infection, symptomatic, asymptomatic etc? Could I have stood in a queue for the supermarket 100 times and not encountered somebody who was infected? If they were infected (or n people were), would the fact that I was 2m away from them have eliminated the risk of infection (or reduced to a minimum)? The same when in a supermarket.... I just don't see how I could not have been exposed. Given that I don't see how I could not have been infected. Sorry, I did warn it was likely to ramble a bit .
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Sept 1, 2020 15:42:22 GMT
Apologies in advance, this will probably be poorly structured / not a clear question but.... help me understand something (probably directed at IFISAcava but would welcome anybody else's thoughts). The full UK lockdown started on the 23rd March. Five months ago and counting. Back at the beginning I'd go shopping every three or four days, picking up what was available. As the situation normalised I reverted to going daily, but observed social distancing where possible (ie queuing), but navigating supermarket aisles was... difficult. More recently, to observe the new rules / guidance, I've taken to wearing a mask when in a shop. Prior to the relaxation of the rules I didn't go out socialising once. Since the relaxation I have been out (though less than before) and have observed the rules (probably some blur around the edges when I've had one too many). I live in Lambeth, in London. In spite of all of the above I find it very hard to believe that I have had zero exposure to COVID-19. Just going to the supermarket daily probably sees me encounter more than a hundred people. The chances of me not encountering somebody who was asymptomatic prior to the lockdown must have been slim (especially given the number of people who now say they think they had it and that I met up with prior to lockdown). So a bunch of questions:- 1. Has any modelling been done on this? 2. What's the medical profession's view on required viral load necessary to cause an infection (presumably a range influenced by x, y and z)? 3. Does one virion entering my body mean I've been infected? 4. Related to 2 and 3. - can you be exposed and not be infected? 5. How much impact does personal hygiene / observing social distancing guidelines etc have on how infectious COVID-19 is? I guess some of my confusion arises around the definitions of exposure, infection, symptomatic, asymptomatic etc? Could I have stood in a queue for the supermarket 100 times and not encountered somebody who was infected? If they were infected (or n people were), would the fact that I was 2m away from them have eliminated the risk of infection (or reduced to a minimum)? The same when in a supermarket.... I just don't see how I could not have been exposed. Given that I don't see how I could not have been infected. Sorry, I did warn it was likely to ramble a bit . I suppose it depends on how good the information is about the likelihood of catching Covid. I remember at one point it was 15 minutes closer than 2m to someone infected and I assume not wearing a mask. In a local area you are probably more likely mixing with many of the same people rather than totally different people each time you go out. Has your local area given any statistics on the infection rate? Where we are it's about 6% infection rate of those tested, if that were a true measure (which it won't be, multiply by whatever factor you think,) 6 in 100 of the people you see may be infected, how close were you to those random individuals and for how long? And are you washing your hands or sanitising after handling anything large numbers of people may have touched, supermarket shelves, door handles, railings etc. If you are taking all the suggested precautions I certainly don't think it's inevitable you will have been infected, although you've very likely walked past someone who was. My random view.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Sept 1, 2020 16:54:23 GMT
If it was that easy to get infected you would catch a cold every time you went shopping.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Sept 1, 2020 17:15:51 GMT
I've had some one round for a cuppo tea ( Steve the Carpenter) who has had Covid but isolated for 2 weeks . He worked around the place for a bit.This was two months ago. Not been ill at all . So maybe 2 weeks does the trick . Just a bit of anectdotal evidence. I was pretty poorly early January with The Cough and often wonder if this was Covid. I live in the middle of nowhere.
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Nomad
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Post by Nomad on Sept 1, 2020 17:31:49 GMT
Apologies in advance, this will probably be poorly structured / not a clear question but.... help me understand something (probably directed at IFISAcava but would welcome anybody else's thoughts). The full UK lockdown started on the 23rd March. Five months ago and counting. Back at the beginning I'd go shopping every three or four days, picking up what was available. As the situation normalised I reverted to going daily, but observed social distancing where possible (ie queuing), but navigating supermarket aisles was... difficult. More recently, to observe the new rules / guidance, I've taken to wearing a mask when in a shop. Prior to the relaxation of the rules I didn't go out socialising once. Since the relaxation I have been out (though less than before) and have observed the rules (probably some blur around the edges when I've had one too many). I live in Lambeth, in London. In spite of all of the above I find it very hard to believe that I have had zero exposure to COVID-19. Just going to the supermarket daily probably sees me encounter more than a hundred people. The chances of me not encountering somebody who was asymptomatic prior to the lockdown must have been slim (especially given the number of people who now say they think they had it and that I met up with prior to lockdown). So a bunch of questions:- 1. Has any modelling been done on this? 2. What's the medical profession's view on required viral load necessary to cause an infection (presumably a range influenced by x, y and z)? 3. Does one virion entering my body mean I've been infected? 4. Related to 2 and 3. - can you be exposed and not be infected? 5. How much impact does personal hygiene / observing social distancing guidelines etc have on how infectious COVID-19 is? I guess some of my confusion arises around the definitions of exposure, infection, symptomatic, asymptomatic etc? Could I have stood in a queue for the supermarket 100 times and not encountered somebody who was infected? If they were infected (or n people were), would the fact that I was 2m away from them have eliminated the risk of infection (or reduced to a minimum)? The same when in a supermarket.... I just don't see how I could not have been exposed. Given that I don't see how I could not have been infected. Sorry, I did warn it was likely to ramble a bit . Why on earth go to the supermarket daily, especially if you're worried about the risks? Once a week works for me.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Sept 1, 2020 17:40:31 GMT
Click and Collect works for me, now it's easier to get slots anyway.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 1, 2020 17:52:30 GMT
If it was that easy to get infected you would catch a cold every time you went shopping. Which may not be so far off the truth as far as colds go. There aren't an infinite variety of colds in circulation at any one point in time, so when you do catch one most people gain some immunity....
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