agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 9, 2020 20:45:35 GMT
Dr. I.P. Freely - sounds like a line from the Simpsons
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 11, 2020 10:18:01 GMT
This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic is a very interesting article arguing that a key factor of this virus is its "overdispersion", and preventing super-spreading events is much more important than trying to find each individual case. Japan and South Korea have been more successful with less restrictions thanks to their "backward tracing" system, i.e. when somebody is positive find who infected them and work from there in order to find clusters. The UK gets a honourable mention for getting it wrong: Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds: burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation. The U.K.βs recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 11, 2020 11:10:16 GMT
This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic is a very interesting article arguing that a key factor of this virus is its "overdispersion", and preventing super-spreading events is much more important than trying to find each individual case. Japan and South Korea have been more successful with less restrictions thanks to their "backward tracing" system, i.e. when somebody is positive find who infected them and work from there in order to find clusters. The UK gets a honourable mention for getting it wrong: Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds: burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation. The U.K.βs recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.
I'm a fan of the long reads, the New Statesman has some good stuff too. I understood (can't recall where I read it) that the UK does indeed do backwards contact tracing and has done for some time. The point about the Rule of Six is that it doesn't do as much damage to businesses as closing pubs etc. It's all about the economy - ironic given high degree of correlation between reducing case numbers and increased prosperity. I try not to digest too much MSM but I do sense an obsession with hospitality. Maybe I'm wrong but I think even if they closed all hospitality from now then Rt would remain above 1. I'm not saying it won't help but it's not the answer. If they want to reduce infection rates (I'm not entirely convinced that they don't want a low level of infection to build "immunity") then they need to look at workplaces, unis, schools & colleges, and address the economic hit people have to take in order to self isolate. Yikes, sticking up for the govt and the likes of Mr Wetherspoon - I'm off for a cold shower.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 11, 2020 12:31:35 GMT
I understood (can't recall where I read it) that the UK does indeed do backwards contact tracing and has done for some time. I don't think it's currently in place yet; yesterday The Telegraph reported "Whitehall sources said preparations were underway to introduce so-called backward tracing, when current infection rates drop to lower levels": UK pins hopes on South Korea-style 'backward tracing' system
Edit: and "when current infection rates drop to lower levels" may well mean after the winter at this point.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 11, 2020 13:01:55 GMT
I understood (can't recall where I read it) that the UK does indeed do backwards contact tracing and has done for some time. I don't think it's currently in place yet; yesterday The Telegraph reported "Whitehall sources said preparations were underway to introduce so-called backward tracing, when current infection rates drop to lower levels": UK pins hopes on South Korea-style 'backward tracing' system
Edit: and "when current infection rates drop to lower levels" may well mean after the winter at this point. π€ We have no idea how many contact tracers are needed to do the tracing perfectly. 290 tracers to do 5 cases a week is a joke www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2471
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 11, 2020 14:31:46 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 11, 2020 16:08:08 GMT
So, my experience of Track and Trace to date:- 1. Lodger decided (and I agreed) that her symptoms warranted requesting a test on Thursday the 1st October (ie she'd developed a cough, but not "continuous" the day before). She's a bit of a sicknote, and always complaining about various aches, pains, ailments etc, so that decision was always likely to be subject to "extra noise". 2. Test arrived, I think, on Tuesday the 6th October - ie it took too long to arrive. 3. I put her completed "test pack" in the post that afternoon and that was the last time I left the house (I think the last time lodger left the house was maybe Monday the 28th September?). 4. Test result was provided, I think by email, on Friday the 9th October. 5. NHS Track and Trace made multiple attempts to contact her, none of which worked for one reason or another (eg the interview takes 30mins+ but she had just started cooking dinner or something). The multiple attempts is good. The fact that you cannot call them back is bad. 6. The interview finally took place this afternoon, the 11th October (ie they are working weekends). Within minutes I had received a text message from NHS Track and Trace asking to register on an NHS site and answer some basic questions. The speed of this follow up was excellent. The site also contained a lot of information if you were vulnerable, or unable to get support etc, which was also good. 7. I was told I had to self-isolate until the 14th October. Which is three days away, and five days after I started to isolate. To summarise:- Time to deliver test BAD Test turn around GOOD Multiple attempts to contact lodger GOOD Inability for her to contact Test and Trace BAD Fast follow up with me GOOD Helpful information provided GOOD The lag introduced by time to develop symptoms + time to decide they warrant testing + time to receive test is.... awkward, though I am not sure much can be done about it apart from improving the time to deliver tests. It devalues subsequent efforts unless people, like we did, take the decision to isolate from the date of test request, but even then..... Overall it worked simply. It just didn't work quickly. The two obvious points to improve here are test delivery times and being able to have the interview with Track and Trace at your convenience rather than theirs. Still, no symptoms to speak of to report (does a sort throat for an hour count?) on my side and I can leave the house on Wednesday . Neighbours have been great in terms of doing shopping, particular of the red liquid in a bottle sort! Think I deserve a pint come Wednesday night. EDIT: I suppose some of the value here is in following up with contacts of hers who aren't as "close" to her as I was. It's really only because we live in the same house that I was able to act / react as I did. Had I been, say, a friend of a friend who spent some time with her in a bar or a restaurant the whole process might actually add more value.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 11, 2020 16:42:01 GMT
So, my experience of Track and Trace to date:- 1. Lodger decided (and I agreed) that her symptoms warranted requesting a test on Thursday the 1st October (ie she'd developed a cough, but not "continuous" the day before). She's a bit of a sicknote, and always complaining about various aches, pains, ailments etc, so that decision was always likely to be subject to "extra noise". 2. Test arrived, I think, on Tuesday the 6th October - ie it took too long to arrive. 3. I put her completed "test pack" in the post that afternoon and that was the last time I left the house (I think the last time lodger left the house was maybe Monday the 28th September?). 4. Test result was provided, I think by email, on Friday the 9th October. 5. NHS Track and Trace made multiple attempts to contact her, none of which worked for one reason or another ( eg the interview takes 30mins+ but she had just started cooking dinner or something). The multiple attempts is good. The fact that you cannot call them back is bad. 6. The interview finally took place this afternoon, the 11th October (ie they are working weekends). Within minutes I had received a text message from NHS Track and Trace asking to register on an NHS site and answer some basic questions. The speed of this follow up was excellent. The site also contained a lot of information if you were vulnerable, or unable to get support etc, which was also good. 7. I was told I had to self-isolate until the 14th October. Which is three days away, and five days after I started to isolate. Brilliant:
- This is NHS track and trace and we would like to talk to you about your positive Covid-19 test
- Sorry but I'm just sorting out the ice cream and jelly for the kids birthday party. Can you call back later
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 11, 2020 16:50:53 GMT
1. Lodger decided (and I agreed) that her symptoms warranted requesting a test on Thursday the 1st October 4. Test result was provided, I think by email, on Friday the 9th October. 8 days from requesting a test to getting the results frankly makes the whole system almost pointless.
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 11, 2020 17:55:19 GMT
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 11, 2020 17:59:18 GMT
So, my experience of Track and Trace to date:- 1. Lodger decided (and I agreed) that her symptoms warranted requesting a test on Thursday the 1st October (ie she'd developed a cough, but not "continuous" the day before). She's a bit of a sicknote, and always complaining about various aches, pains, ailments etc, so that decision was always likely to be subject to "extra noise". 2. Test arrived, I think, on Tuesday the 6th October - ie it took too long to arrive. 3. I put her completed "test pack" in the post that afternoon and that was the last time I left the house (I think the last time lodger left the house was maybe Monday the 28th September?). 4. Test result was provided, I think by email, on Friday the 9th October. 5. NHS Track and Trace made multiple attempts to contact her, none of which worked for one reason or another (eg the interview takes 30mins+ but she had just started cooking dinner or something). The multiple attempts is good. The fact that you cannot call them back is bad. 6. The interview finally took place this afternoon, the 11th October (ie they are working weekends). Within minutes I had received a text message from NHS Track and Trace asking to register on an NHS site and answer some basic questions. The speed of this follow up was excellent. The site also contained a lot of information if you were vulnerable, or unable to get support etc, which was also good. 7. I was told I had to self-isolate until the 14th October. Which is three days away, and five days after I started to isolate. To summarise:- Time to deliver test BAD Test turn around GOOD Multiple attempts to contact lodger GOOD Inability for her to contact Test and Trace BAD Fast follow up with me GOOD Helpful information provided GOOD The lag introduced by time to develop symptoms + time to decide they warrant testing + time to receive test is.... awkward, though I am not sure much can be done about it apart from improving the time to deliver tests. It devalues subsequent efforts unless people, like we did, take the decision to isolate from the date of test request, but even then..... Overall it worked simply. It just didn't work quickly. The two obvious points to improve here are test delivery times and being able to have the interview with Track and Trace at your convenience rather than theirs. Still, no symptoms to speak of to report (does a sort throat for an hour count?) on my side and I can leave the house on Wednesday . Neighbours have been great in terms of doing shopping, particular of the red liquid in a bottle sort! Think I deserve a pint come Wednesday night. EDIT: I suppose some of the value here is in following up with contacts of hers who aren't as "close" to her as I was. It's really only because we live in the same house that I was able to act / react as I did. Had I been, say, a friend of a friend who spent some time with her in a bar or a restaurant the whole process might actually add more value. You haven't said, but do we conclude from this that your lodger's test result was +ve ? Stay well.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 11, 2020 18:26:05 GMT
1. Lodger decided (and I agreed) that her symptoms warranted requesting a test on Thursday the 1st October 4. Test result was provided, I think by email, on Friday the 9th October. 8 days from requesting a test to getting the results frankly makes the whole system almost pointless. The main delay was that the pack took 5 days to arrive (I assume part of the problem with the Roche warehouse delays).
Given that the test material goes both ways in the post it is obviously not going to be a rapid process.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 11, 2020 18:31:29 GMT
Really bad that you can't call them back.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 11, 2020 19:08:53 GMT
bracknellboy My lodger's results are in - positive. Which means I have to self-isolate until next weekend now (at least, I need to check a calendar). Ho hum. Still, better news is that I've displayed no symptoms at all which I guess means I've had it and been completely asymptomatic.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 11, 2020 19:09:05 GMT
Really bad that you can't call them back. Agreed.
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