IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 3, 2020 8:10:09 GMT
Just to provide a bit of perspective, as of right now ~0.0012% of the world's population are infected. Does it worry me? Yes. Do I expect the numbers to go higher? Yes. Do I expect it to become endemic? Probably, over time. Perhaps quite quickly. If it does at least we can dispense with the whole face mask rigmarole. Do I expect vulnerable groups to suffer disproportionately? Yes. Do I expect health care systems (where they exist) to be stressed, perhaps badly? Yes. Do we need to take sensible precautions to limit spread and manage patient care and maximise outcomes? Yes. Do you need to take sensible precautions to limit spread? Yes. It's only polite, after all. Do I expect to catch it? Probably. Is it the harbinger of the end of the world? No. Am I going to panic? No. I think that there is a significant risk we will have induced excessive health anxiety, contamination phobia, OCD behaviours etc in a significant proportion of the global population permanently, with marked psychological consequences. Face masks will likely be a permanent fixture. I think a small investment in a global healthcare fund is in order.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 3, 2020 8:50:44 GMT
Given that the Italian health care systems is probably in far better shape than say Wuhan’s, and likewise the US.... Interesting assumption / statement, what's the reasoning behind it? Purely on the basis of lower numbers and hence likely to be less overwhelmed.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 3, 2020 9:21:22 GMT
Strange that the number of tests carried out in the U.S. has vanished from the CDC website. Perhaps their server has been infected with a virus ?
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Post by dan1 on Mar 3, 2020 9:31:45 GMT
Strange that the number of tests carried out in the U.S. has vanished from the CDC website. Perhaps CDC ran out of funds to maintain it? No US President would be stupid enough to slash the CDC budget, surely?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 3, 2020 9:32:05 GMT
COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less than 1%' "...the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively." www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089 |
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Post by Please turn me over on Mar 3, 2020 9:36:17 GMT
./shakes head in disgust  Less muzzled now.
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Mar 3, 2020 9:46:34 GMT
COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less than 1%' "...the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively." www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089 Indeed. The number of cases is essentially unknown as this can only be discovered by testing every single person, multiple times. I have no doubt that the current ~88,000 cases is significantly less than the true number, especially in China. It's obviously still a concern, but this is not the society breaking apocalypse that it was originally feared to be. I point to the lack of mass funeral pyres as supporting evidence. That being said, I still expect it to significantly impact supply chains (due to fear-induced heavy handed behaviour) and health services (limited capacity to deal with anything above the norm). Full disclosure: I say this as a (relatively) young person with no pre-existing conditions.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Mar 3, 2020 10:51:10 GMT
A couple of things that have caused my eyebrows to rise today. Italy: 52 deaths, >2000 cases. But... 149 of those infected are now recovered. So if you go by the logic that fatality rates can only be looked at in terms of deaths compared with recovered, or at least “countback”, not by simply number of current confirmed infected, you’d end up with a much more scary number. Then there are 5 deaths in Washington State, with 14 confirmed cases in the county. Given that the Italian health care systems is probably in far better shape than say Wuhan’s, and likewise the US, it would seem to demonstrate that right now there are lies, downright lies, and statistics (not the fault of statistics I should say). Or rather, that its nigh on impossible to draw conclusions based on current numbers being reported and more dust needs to settle. Interest "Testing" Olympic league table outside China: First place: S Korea - 109,591 Second place: Italy - 23,345 Third place: UK - 13,525 Country with interesting stats: US 472, Tests per Million People: 1 
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 3, 2020 13:06:13 GMT
Has anyone come across any info about what this all might mean in the future short term (5years)?
My concern here is that viruses have no "repair" mechanism; which is one reason why we get a new outbreaks of flu every-so-often. I wonder how likely is it that we'll see new outbreaks of covid19 in the years to come? Being apparently a variant of SARS could a new future outbreak version have the mortality rate of SARS, rather than ~1% or whatever we end up with for covid-19?
The different flu's types (subtypes) such as H1N1 (Swine flu) or H5N1 (Bird flu) have resulted because viruses are always open to change and can't repair themselves as DNA is able to. So there's a constant stream of new mutations. i suppose it's all guestimates for quite awhile til more work is done. (There's well over 200 different subtypes of flu)
The forum has, over 5,000 "Users" and perhaps 5times that who just view, I can't help but think about those who might stop posting/viewing due to all this.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 3, 2020 13:08:53 GMT
SELF ISOLATION >>>>>>What does it entail 
If you have symptoms or have been to infected area do you and by default all your family self Isolate ??
26% of adult population have a dog. In china pet dogs have been found to have the virus in ther nose and throat where owner was positive.
All the dogs require walking how do you Isolate and walk the dog ?
Older people are more at risk. Will we see the streets late at night full of elderly going shopping to 24hr stores to avoid the crowds and will they meet hoards of dog walkers "self Isolating) by walking the dog on deserted streets.
If dogs are let out alone could they be spreading the virus with a sneeze,
It is a complicated business when thought out to last possible effects.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 3, 2020 13:23:47 GMT
Diamond Princess cohort update
634 cases of whom 328 were asymptomatic cases
Deaths - 7 (of whom we know at least 5 were elderly: 70s/80s. Not all details of the others available when I looked).
So I would extrapolate:
- There are many asymptomatic, undiagnosed cases out there
- This means the death rates are probably significantly lower than previous estimates
- even in a high risk cohort (with many elderly people on a cruise) the rate is around 1% (unless there are some people yet to die - could be some still very unwell)
- in a less skewed population the death rate will be less than 1% (as the earlier link I posted suggests)
- like 'flu it is overwhelmingly the elderly and already ill that are at risk (plus healthcare workers it seems - good luck with the emergency plan of getting elderly retired doctors back into the health service)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 3, 2020 13:48:18 GMT
Well, here's some advice based on personal experience today. Get your haircut before it becomes endemic across the UK (/world). But haircuts are already endemic ?? Speak for yourself. Last time I paid to have mine cut was 1996.
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jester
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Post by jester on Mar 3, 2020 13:49:25 GMT
But haircuts are already endemic ?? Speak for yourself. Last time I paid to have mine cut was 1996. You do have that look about you 🤔
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 3, 2020 14:33:53 GMT
Diamond Princess cohort update 634 cases of whom 328 were asymptomatic cases Deaths - 7 (of whom we know at least 5 were elderly: 70s/80s. Not all details of the others available when I looked). So I would extrapolate: - There are many asymptomatic, undiagnosed cases out there - This means the death rates are probably significantly lower than previous estimates - even in a high risk cohort (with many elderly people on a cruise) the rate is around 1% (unless there are some people yet to die - could be some still very unwell) - in a less skewed population the death rate will be less than 1% (as the earlier link I posted suggests) - like 'flu it is overwhelmingly the elderly and already ill that are at risk (plus healthcare workers it seems - good luck with the emergency plan of getting elderly retired doctors back into the health service) The Diamond Princess was always going to be an interesting and informative lab experiment. I also suspect those that we're stuck on it probably felt like they were in one :-(
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 3, 2020 14:50:51 GMT
Diamond Princess cohort update 634 cases of whom 328 were asymptomatic cases Deaths - 7 (of whom we know at least 5 were elderly: 70s/80s. Not all details of the others available when I looked). So I would extrapolate: - There are many asymptomatic, undiagnosed cases out there - This means the death rates are probably significantly lower than previous estimates - even in a high risk cohort (with many elderly people on a cruise) the rate is around 1% (unless there are some people yet to die - could be some still very unwell) - in a less skewed population the death rate will be less than 1% (as the earlier link I posted suggests) - like 'flu it is overwhelmingly the elderly and already ill that are at risk (plus healthcare workers it seems - good luck with the emergency plan of getting elderly retired doctors back into the health service) The problem here is one's definition of death rate. Using your looser definition, a 1% guess might well be correct, but we'll never know because the official bodies like WHO that record these things aren't interested in asymptomatic, undiagnosed cases. Their definition of death rate has always been based on deaths over known and recorded cases, once the virus has died out. COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less than 1%' "...the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively." www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089It's wrong for these authors to conflate a 1% guess based on a very loose definition with the SARS and MERS metric based on a very different definition. No scientist worth listening to would make such a basic error. For all anyone knows, there were probably thousands of SARS mild, asymptomatic, undiagnosed cases too. Are they being considered? No. It's a fundamental imperative of any researcher to compare like-for-like, if they expect to be taken seriously. The Diamond Princess is one case which supports a (minimum of) 1% rate, but it's pretty meaningless in isolation. I could equally choose USA which supports a 6% rate (6 deaths in 103 cases). Meanwhile, sticking with WHO's definition, Italy, Iran, Hong Kong, France, Japan, USA and China all individually exhibit a death rate far exceeding 1%... and that's if all their remaining known and recorded cases survive (unlikely). One oddity is South Korea whose fatality rate is well below these others. And certain countries like Germany and Spain have a cracking record so far - dozens of cases but no fatalities to date.
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