agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,943
Likes: 4,382
|
Post by agent69 on Oct 21, 2020 20:30:46 GMT
No, I live in one of the white patches where data is supressed (Suppressed rates: MSOA level rates are suppressed where there have been fewer than 3 cases in a seven-day period. This is to protect the privacy of individuals and prevent disclosure.) in the South West
which looks a bit different from the North map (and Andy Burnham wonders why the north is being treated differently).
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Oct 21, 2020 21:02:38 GMT
No, I live in one of the white patches where data is supressed (Suppressed rates: MSOA level rates are suppressed where there have been fewer than 3 cases in a seven-day period. This is to protect the privacy of individuals and prevent disclosure.) in the South West
<image snipped> which looks a bit different from the North map (and Andy Burnham wonders why the north is being treated differently). <image snipped> The guidance says: agent69 - would you prefer it if it said: you must not travel outside the very high alert area...I don't know if I agree or not. I just can't shake the memory of the very first "lockdown" in Northern Italy when many fled South. But then again, areas currently Very High will likely be that way (and most likely with increasing restrictions) until Easter if not beyond.
|
|
slippery
Member of DD Central
Posts: 83
Likes: 61
|
Post by slippery on Oct 21, 2020 22:51:37 GMT
Half-term is almost upon us, which begs the question of where to go for that well earned autumn break? - abroad seems like too much of a risk given last minute quarantine requirements - Wales, Scotland, NI, the North and London are out That leaves the South West, South East and East. What could go wrong? Isle of Man is a bargain - pay for one McDonald's then you get 6 weeks full board, no single room supplement (reduced to 3 weeks for good behaviour). www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-54605434(Maybe just me but think that headline should read "Coronavirus: Man jailed for going to McDonald's while NOT self-isolating")
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,605
Likes: 5,020
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 22, 2020 7:30:52 GMT
agent69 - where are those maps from?
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Oct 22, 2020 8:10:50 GMT
I don't know if I agree or not. I just can't shake the memory of the very first "lockdown" in Northern Italy when many fled South. But then again, areas currently Very High will likely be that way (and most likely with increasing restrictions) until Easter if not beyond. I know you know this, but let's not lose sight of the fact that a "very high alert / Tier 3 / ultra-dangerous" (whatevs) set of restrictions is still vastly, vastly, less restrictive than the lockdowns in the Spring. Unfortunately, it seems an irritating trend on social media (not meaning you) to conflate adhering to measures such as not going to the gym or having a house party as being a "lockdown". I don't blame people really, what with all of the Tier 3 restrictions being daubed in bright shades of red and the media hamming it up. Lockdown, to me, means something along the lines of being permitted to only leave your house for purchasing food and briefly for exercise (although even exercise wasn't permitted in Spain). Aside from my (admittedly, pointless) irritation at shifting vocabulary, there is a serious point here too. As the Govt's scientific advisors have pointed out, these "very high alert" restrictions are probably not enough. So you potentially have a lot of people wandering about feeling like they're somehow protected by what in actuality are quite a tame set of measures. Also, if things get really really nasty, they're then going to have to invent rather silly 'ulta ultra high tiers'.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,605
Likes: 5,020
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 22, 2020 8:32:31 GMT
"Lockdown" is a sliding scale.
We are still under lockdown, even in tier 1, to a certain extent. There are things we cannot legally do. This has been the case since March, constantly, and will be for many months to come.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Oct 22, 2020 9:00:35 GMT
Also, if things get really really nasty, they're then going to have to invent rather silly 'ulta ultra high tiers'.
This government's approach is "Guided by Science. Led by Politics".
There is little doubt the scientists are highly-likely to be correct in their calls for much stricter national measures.
Other European countries such as the Netherlands are already heeding their scientists advice.
The trouble in the UK, as always, is the politics:
- The Cummings-led Downing Street is no doubt worried about the "optics" of another lockdown (or lockdown-esque) scenario. - The Cabinet is only there because of their unwavering commitment to Brexit, they are otherwise individuals promoted well above their pay grade.
- Downing Street meanwhile has to be seen in parliament to be listening to the voice of their regional back benchers ... hence the dither, delay and the games such as we saw with Manchester.
So what the UK ends up with is a mess of reactive, knee-jerk measures, some of which make sense, some of which don't. Rather than a well thought out national plan.
Talk about being unable to organise a piss-up in a brewery.
Largely agree. It's no excuse, but it's far from smooth sailing elsewhere though. Madrid was/is in full rebellion to further measures for example. But yes, unfortunately this situation demands an executive team with a very high level of dedication to the public good, attention to detail, empathy, and above all competence. Having a set of sycophantic incompetent ideologues is pretty disastrous. I don't just mean that in an anti-Tory way either, there was much more competence under May's cabinet, and moreso under Cameron's. Oh well, we reap what we sow, and I'm far from sure Corbyn and crew would have been any better. Sigh, Oh dear. Time for a cup of tea.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Oct 22, 2020 9:02:13 GMT
"Lockdown" is a sliding scale. We are still under lockdown, even in tier 1, to a certain extent. There are things we cannot legally do. This has been the case since March, constantly, and will be for many months to come. You're usually right about these sorts of things and probably have a barrage of detailed articles tucked up your sleeve, so I'll pick my battles elsewhere
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,943
Likes: 4,382
|
Post by agent69 on Oct 22, 2020 9:02:14 GMT
agent69 - where are those maps from?
you have to zoom in a bit before the white areas become visible
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Oct 22, 2020 9:20:54 GMT
Interesting (but unfortunate) to observe that Poland and Czech republic are not avoiding a second wave, though they both largely avoided the first. Poland never even reached 50 deaths a day in the Spring, and today recorded 168.
It seem to me that the reason why is that they locked down very swiftly in both countries. As I recall, they locked down at practically the same time as Spain, despite Spain being much further ahead in the curve.
That appears to have bought them some time, allowing a very lax restrictions Summer (from personal experience). Unfortunately the virus has caught up again and I suspect PL is headed for something approaching a full lockdown.
Also more fuel to the fire to show that there really were so many more lives lost by those countries that delayed locking down in the first wave.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Oct 22, 2020 9:26:45 GMT
I don't know if I agree or not. I just can't shake the memory of the very first "lockdown" in Northern Italy when many fled South. But then again, areas currently Very High will likely be that way (and most likely with increasing restrictions) until Easter if not beyond. I know you know this, but let's not lose sight of the fact that a "very high alert / Tier 3 / ultra-dangerous" (whatevs) set of restrictions is still vastly, vastly, less restrictive than the lockdowns in the Spring. Unfortunately, it seems an irritating trend on social media (not meaning you) to conflate adhering to measures such as not going to the gym or having a house party as being a "lockdown". I don't blame people really, what with all of the Tier 3 restrictions being daubed in bright shades of red and the media hamming it up. Lockdown, to me, means something along the lines of being permitted to only leave your house for purchasing food and briefly for exercise (although even exercise wasn't permitted in Spain). Aside from my (admittedly, pointless) irritation at shifting vocabulary, there is a serious point here too. As the Govt's scientific advisors have pointed out, these "very high alert" restrictions are probably not enough. So you potentially have a lot of people wandering about feeling like they're somehow protected by what in actuality are quite a tame set of measures. Also, if things get really really nasty, they're then going to have to invent rather silly 'ulta ultra high tiers'. Absolutely, it's why I try and put "lockdown" in quotes! The original "lockdown" still allowed people to out multiple times a day everyday - supermarket, pharmacy, exercise, for caring responsibilities, to work. I was a little more suspect, shall we say, because I was trying to eeek out of agent69 whether they would restrict movement between tiers - they're generally supportive of the govt so I'm genuinely not sure and therefore curious. ~~~ It's futile trying to work out the govts next move (doesn't stop me speculating) but I am fascinated by what the strategy is. Obviously, we know it was originally turd community (go about your business as usual etc) until the reality hit of overflowing hospitals and people dying in their tens of thousands. We came out of "lockdown" later than expected (why?), followed by rapid opening up over the summer culminating in the go back to work message. Sending schools, unis and workplaces back in autumn can only therefore have been in an attempt to drive infections in the young. We also know they've given audiences with Tegnell*, Gupta and Heneghan. I guess the govt only care about indicators (infections, hospitalisations etc) in the 60+ age group but they're playing a very dangerous game with peoples lives. It's the Swedish approach, not full on turd community but it comes as a by product (will the Swedes be able to manage their infection rate through the autumn/winter, only time will tell). All the evidence points this way which is why I've always assumed I'm going to get it at some point (I refer to it as state sponsored infection!) I fail to believe they're constantly fire fighting and reacting on an ad hoc basis - they can't be that incompetent, surely? *Tegnell's mentor, Giesecke, in his role at WHO co-authored an interesting article in The Lancet.... www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32117-6/fulltextIt references more successful nations such as South Korea, Japan, etc and recommends masks as ways to limit the spread. Does it mark a change in his thinking and what, if any, influence will it have on Tegnell? An interesting aside.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,943
Likes: 4,382
|
Post by agent69 on Oct 22, 2020 9:36:13 GMT
agent69 - would you prefer it if it said: you must not travel outside the very high alert area...I don't know if I agree or not. I just can't shake the memory of the very first "lockdown" in Northern Italy when many fled South. But then again, areas currently Very High will likely be that way (and most likely with increasing restrictions) until Easter if not beyond. If you look at countries around the world they appear to have 3 different ways of handling the virus:
- stamp on it hard to try to eradicate it
- employ targeted action to reduce the effect of the virus to manageable levels until a vacine is available
- ignore it and pretend it doesn't exist.
I would prefer it if we were in the first group, but accept that the nature of our society would make that difficult. I would like to see mandatory travel bans, but there's not a lot of point if they're not enforced.
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Oct 22, 2020 10:07:23 GMT
This government's approach is "Guided by Science. Led by Politics".
There is little doubt the scientists are highly-likely to be correct in their calls for much stricter national measures.
Other European countries such as the Netherlands are already heeding their scientists advice.
The trouble in the UK, as always, is the politics:
- The Cummings-led Downing Street is no doubt worried about the "optics" of another lockdown (or lockdown-esque) scenario. - The Cabinet is only there because of their unwavering commitment to Brexit, they are otherwise individuals promoted well above their pay grade.
- Downing Street meanwhile has to be seen in parliament to be listening to the voice of their regional back benchers ... hence the dither, delay and the games such as we saw with Manchester.
So what the UK ends up with is a mess of reactive, knee-jerk measures, some of which make sense, some of which don't. Rather than a well thought out national plan.
Talk about being unable to organise a piss-up in a brewery.
Largely agree. It's no excuse, but it's far from smooth sailing elsewhere though. Madrid was/is in full rebellion to further measures for example. But yes, unfortunately this situation demands an executive team with a very high level of dedication to the public good, attention to detail, empathy, and above all competence. Having a set of sycophantic incompetent ideologues is pretty disastrous. I don't just mean that in an anti-Tory way either, there was much more competence under May's cabinet, and moreso under Cameron's. Oh well, we reap what we sow, and I'm far from sure Corbyn and crew would have been any better. Sigh, Oh dear. Time for a cup of tea. They'd have been too preoccupied with the gardening.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,605
Likes: 5,020
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 22, 2020 12:42:19 GMT
I don't just mean that in an anti-Tory way either, there was much more competence under May's cabinet, and moreso under Cameron's. Oh well, we reap what we sow, and I'm far from sure Corbyn and crew would have been any better. Sigh, Oh dear. Time for a cup of tea. Indeed. They actively welcomed dissenting views - May never saw eye-to-eye with Hammond. Cameron ran a coalition for most of his time in No10 and fought the kipper end of his party internally. BJ Piffle simply got rid of every single non-sycophant at the first possible opportunity. And you're right about Corbyn - Momentum ran a similar pogrom against almost all dissenting views.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,524
Likes: 6,316
|
Post by registerme on Oct 22, 2020 13:01:09 GMT
Thankfully Starmer isn't a Corbynite or a bonkers loony left a la Derek Hatton. This here "natural Tory" cannot wait to vote Labour at the next election.
There was a good post on Facebook today by Dr Rant (who many of my medic friends follow which lends "him" some legitimacy in my eyes):-
"Dear John Penrose MP (Conservative), Anti-Corruption Minister. Any chance you could investigate the close links between "NHS" Test and Trace and Serco?
I see that the head of Test and Trace, Dido Harding (Conservative peer) gave £12 billion to Serco to run their utterly shite attempt at testing and tracing. The CEO of Serco, Rupert Soames, is the brother of former Conservative MP Nicholas Soames, and is married to Conservative donor Camilla Dunne. The former Serco head of PR is the Health Minister, Edward Argar MP (Conservative). There was no bidding process for this £12 billion of public money.
Do you think that this head of Test and Trace should be investigated for corruption?
Or would you rather not seeing as you are married to her"?
|
|