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Post by dan1 on Oct 22, 2020 19:43:36 GMT
I agree entirely. The greater the infection rate the less effective the contact tracing in breaking chains of infection. However, it is in part because of the shambles that is "NHS" Test & Trace that the number of infections is not under control. There's an inherent conflict here. Will the private companies make more money the longer this pandemic continues? Then ask youself what drives the local public health teams who consistently out perform their private equivalents. Success to them is measured in terms of quashing infection rates, as they've done for outbreaks long before CV. If this is the poster boy for free-market economics then I'm sorry but, no thank you.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 22, 2020 19:44:28 GMT
How else do you measure progress on the herd immunity path?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 22, 2020 19:58:42 GMT
How else do you measure progress on the herd immunity path? dan1, as I understand it, Pillar 4 is used for surveillance purposes for PHE & ONS. But pillar 3 is Antibody testing, designed to show if people have antibodies from having had COVID-19, notice number of Pillar 3 testing is almost constant @ 120000 daily, it's the only pillar hardly get changed. So who are these 120000 people? Including weekend
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 22, 2020 20:22:30 GMT
So who are these 120000 people? Including weekend Not the general public, as I found out when Track and Trace tracked me down to my... kitchen. They're for NHS / frontline staff.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 22, 2020 20:30:40 GMT
How else do you measure progress on the herd immunity path? dan1 , as I understand it, Pillar 4 is used for surveillance purposes for PHE & ONS. But pillar 3 is Antibody testing, designed to show if people have antibodies from having had COVID-19, notice number of Pillar 3 testing is almost constant @ 120000 daily, it's the only pillar hardly get changed. So who are these 120000 people? Including weekend According to your link there is some antibody testing under Pillar 4. I guess these are for research into at-home sample collection as distinct from blood taken by a nurse? Anyway, I assume Pillar 3 is antibody testing in hospitals - testing of NHS staff IIRC. Does knowledge of what staff have antibodies help them to manage risks, staff absence, etc? Anyway (anyway), rolling out antibody testing nationwide will require lab capacity (albeit different to antigen/PCR testing), trained personnel, and testing kits. There must also be a danger in that if a significant proportion of the population know they have antibodies (11% of the English population are believed to have been infected) will they change their behaviour and will that have an adverse effect on others who are still susceptible?
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 22, 2020 21:36:29 GMT
Looking at this Sero-prevalence surveillance Year: 2020 Week: 40 [pdf] the percentage of people with antibodies is actually decreasing in some areas. Declines in prevalence can be partially explained by demographic differences in the donor population as lockdown measures are relaxed. Examples include a reduction in attendance of regular donors in August and that donors aged 70 years and above were not allowed to donate during lockdown, but this exclusion was lifted from week 26. Waning immunity may also be a contributing factor to the lower prevalence.Seems like these tests are not the "game changer" they were supposed to be.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 23, 2020 11:39:59 GMT
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 23, 2020 12:38:57 GMT
Looking at this Sero-prevalence surveillance Year: 2020 Week: 40 [pdf] the percentage of people with antibodies is actually decreasing in some areas. Declines in prevalence can be partially explained by demographic differences in the donor population as lockdown measures are relaxed. Examples include a reduction in attendance of regular donors in August and that donors aged 70 years and above were not allowed to donate during lockdown, but this exclusion was lifted from week 26. Waning immunity may also be a contributing factor to the lower prevalence. This study "undertook prospective serosurveillance in a large cohort of healthy adults from the start of the epidemic in England" finding that "In seropositive individuals, nucleoprotein and spike protein IgG antibodies declined with time after infection and 50% are predicted to fall below the positive test threshold after 6 months." It should be noted that antibodies are just one factor in immunity, B and T cells also play a role and T cells are typically long lasting. However exactly how much protection they give with this virus is not yet clear. So many things we still don't know.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 23, 2020 14:27:51 GMT
Info from the BBC website regarding developments in Prague
Czech Health Minister Roman Prymula has refused calls from the country's prime minister to resign, after being pictured by a tabloid newspaper coming out of a restaurant late at night - despite all such establishments being closed.
The affair has thrown the country deep into political crisis, and public confidence in government restrictions has been left in tatters.
Looks like Boris isn't the only leader who isn't currently flavour of the month
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 23, 2020 15:13:10 GMT
Info from the BBC website regarding developments in Prague
Czech Health Minister Roman Prymula has refused calls from the country's prime minister to resign, after being pictured by a tabloid newspaper coming out of a restaurant late at night - despite all such establishments being closed.
The affair has thrown the country deep into political crisis, and public confidence in government restrictions has been left in tatters.
Looks like Boris isn't the only leader who isn't currently flavour of the month
And another example of the "rules don't apply to us" culture, courtesy of the BBC web site:
England's match against the Barbarians at Twickenham on Sunday has been called off after 12 Barbarians players were stood down for breaking Covid rules. The players left their hotel bubble - contrary to team protocols - to have dinner at a London restaurant. During its investigation, the Rugby Football Union said it discovered another breach where players left the hotel without permission.
Among the 12 were former England captain Chris Robshaw. Only redeeming feature is that there don't appear to have been any Icelandic floozies involved
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Oct 23, 2020 15:38:09 GMT
Icelandic floozies......??
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 23, 2020 15:39:37 GMT
Icelandic floozies......?? Some young England football players on a recent away game on a smallish island in the middle of the North Atlantic. And their companions du noir. EDIT: Thinking about it that might actually apply to the UK too
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Oct 23, 2020 15:47:01 GMT
Oh women. I thought it was a form of Mcflurry.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Oct 23, 2020 15:53:32 GMT
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 23, 2020 17:24:28 GMT
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