Mike
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Post by Mike on Oct 24, 2020 9:13:10 GMT
Quoting from The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19, “There’s no magic wand we can use here,” Andersen says. “We have to face reality — never before have we reached herd immunity via natural infection with a novel virus, and SARS-CoV-2 is unfortunately no different.” I've heard the same said about novel virus vaccination and based on what little I've read it does seem like an effective c19 vaccine is not round the corner (Vaccine meaning the way most people seem to understand it - long lasting immunity)
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 24, 2020 9:19:56 GMT
They thought throwing him an MBE would shut him up, how wrong they were. I really doubt that anybody thought that making him an MBE (fully deserved imho) would make him shut up. He deserved it, and good for him for continuing his efforts. I'm pretty cynical, and pretty misanthropic, at the best of times, but I am not that cynical . Meanwhile, the amount of food we waste due to preference (28%) is enough to feed those hungry kids all year. www.wrap.org.uk/sites/files/wrap/Food_%20surplus_and_waste_in_the_UK_key_facts_Jan_2020.pdf
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 24, 2020 9:58:10 GMT
That's one of the reasons I like to shop daily. Very little food wastage. Of course I'm a single guy living in central London with a supermarket five minutes walk away. My approach wouldn't be as easy in other circumstances.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 24, 2020 10:01:16 GMT
Quoting from The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19, “There’s no magic wand we can use here,” Andersen says. “We have to face reality — never before have we reached herd immunity via natural infection with a novel virus, and SARS-CoV-2 is unfortunately no different.” I've heard the same said about novel virus vaccination and based on what little I've read it does seem like an effective c19 vaccine is not round the corner (Vaccine meaning the way most people seem to understand it - long lasting immunity) Indeed, it doesn't look like the first generation of vaccines will stop transmission, just reduce the severity of the disease. So we won't reach herd immunity through vaccination either, at least not next year. Maybe herd immunity will simply never happen. Vaccines and treatments will reduce the fatality rate to a lower level. But we'll have to permanently increase the capacity of the health service to cope with more people getting sick all the time. (Incidentally, the UK already has a fairly low number of hospital beds compared to other countries.)
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Oct 24, 2020 10:32:00 GMT
Week 42 (ending 18th Oct), data shows less household event than activity / work or education prior symptom onset. So 2 things you could take from this, or maybe just my mind, no one said they had had sex, or shared a spliff perhaps these 2 activities protect you. also this is interesting "The average age of those who have died from coronavirus in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic is 82.4 years old.Using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), researchers at the University of Oxford found that the median age of a Covid-19 fatality was slightly higher than the median age of those who died of other causes over the same period, which was 81.5."In 2009 2,605 people died in road traffic accidents in the UK. While this made
up only 0.5% of all deaths in the UK in that year, for those in the 15-19 age
group road accidents account for 25% of all deaths. What’s more, fatal
accidents on the roads are largely preventable.
The largest number of deaths in the UK result from conditions such as heart
disease (33% of all deaths), cancer (28% of all deaths) and respiratory
diseases (14% of all deaths). So if you extrapolated from figures if 25% of all deaths of 15-19 year olds are due to RTA then using the same factors being used for Covid we should ban them from using the roads.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 24, 2020 11:00:17 GMT
Well, let's appreciate some art presented by the UK GOV "Our Plan" "We don't know ..." "If things go well"
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Oct 24, 2020 13:11:15 GMT
Well, let's appreciate some art presented by the UK GOV "Our Plan" "We don't know ..." "If things go well"
In the full version online I love how when there was a scientist, doctor or nurse in the piccy they were always being given £60
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Post by dan1 on Oct 24, 2020 13:48:56 GMT
I've heard the same said about novel virus vaccination and based on what little I've read it does seem like an effective c19 vaccine is not round the corner (Vaccine meaning the way most people seem to understand it - long lasting immunity) Indeed, it doesn't look like the first generation of vaccines will stop transmission, just reduce the severity of the disease. So we won't reach herd immunity through vaccination either, at least not next year. Maybe herd immunity will simply never happen. Vaccines and treatments will reduce the fatality rate to a lower level. But we'll have to permanently increase the capacity of the health service to cope with more people getting sick all the time. (Incidentally, the UK already has a fairly low number of hospital beds compared to other countries.) I thought the other day that instead of funding Tory donors contact tracing (must be several billion and much more to come) perhaps we should give it to the NHS to expand as much as practicable over the short to medium term. Contact tracing really is money down the drain when people don't isolate (less than 20% IIRC), and that's regardless of how well the tracing system manages to contact people. How you expand NHS capacity in the short to medium term even with limitless funds must be near impossible mind you. Big incentives for nurses and doctors to train, and retain, and step-up overseas recruitment. I'm less concerned with buildings and equipment but if any country could mess it up by bringing in the private sector then it's surely us.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 24, 2020 16:18:34 GMT
I thought the other day that instead of funding Tory donors contact tracing (must be several billion and much more to come) perhaps we should give it to the NHS to expand as much as practicable over the short to medium term. Contact tracing really is money down the drain when people don't isolate (less than 20% IIRC), and that's regardless of how well the tracing system manages to contact people. I think the <20% was before self-isolating became required by law, along with the £500 support payment. Would be interesting to see if the new measures made any difference.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 24, 2020 16:48:46 GMT
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Oct 24, 2020 19:53:03 GMT
Spare a thought for Madrid.... Thought there was a ripple in the matrix... isn't that from March?
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Post by dan1 on Oct 24, 2020 20:06:44 GMT
Spare a thought for Madrid.... Thought there was a ripple in the matrix... isn't that from March? Not quite a Ben Bradley moment
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 25, 2020 8:17:08 GMT
Data from top 100 MSOA.
Highest level Restriciton is working, halving time in Liverpool is around 2 weeks. Tier 2 restriction also works, but halving time is 6-8 weeks.
University area in Nottingham shows halving is shorter than 2 weeks when students self isolate in accommodation.
🤔 the big question: when and how to lift those restrictions again without causing another spike?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 25, 2020 9:04:19 GMT
I presume those numbers are per 100k pop'n?
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 25, 2020 10:30:15 GMT
I presume those numbers are per 100k pop'n? I would guess they are absolute numbers, the rates per 100k population should be higher. Looking at the cases by area table by "Lower tier LA" the rate for e.g. Liverpool is 574.
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