adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 25, 2020 10:37:40 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 25, 2020 10:47:48 GMT
Data from top 100 MSOA. Highest level Restriciton is working, halving time in Liverpool is around 2 weeks. Tier 2 restriction also works, but halving time is 6-8 weeks. University area in Nottingham shows halving is shorter than 2 weeks when students self isolate in accommodation.π€ the big question: when and how to lift those restrictions again without causing another spike? Same thing happened in Exeter.
When students were running amok there were more than 300 cases a week in the MSOA that contained the University. Now they have been forced to isolate the rate is less than 150. Next door in Exeter city centre the rate has gone down from over 100 a week to less than 50. Just goes to show what you can achieve by just following the rules.
Am I the only one with 'Covid fatigue' fatigue
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Post by dan1 on Oct 25, 2020 10:50:31 GMT
There was an article in The Times yesterday on the realities of the triage system in operation during the first wave... I've not read it but the principles will no doubt be in operation soon, if not already. I raise this because of the slide below given at one of the recent press conferences (see here). I hope the significant fall in ICU admissions among the 85+ age group is not due to increasing the bar on who can enter ICU. Just to be clear, I understand the need for triage. I also understand that ICU can do more harm than good to someone approaching the end of their life, ICU is not always in the patients interest. What I'm questioning is the reversal of the gradient in the presence of increasing admissions of age groups 45-85.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 25, 2020 11:15:46 GMT
<snipped tweet> Data from top 100 MSOA. Highest level Restriciton is working, halving time in Liverpool is around 2 weeks. Tier 2 restriction also works, but halving time is 6-8 weeks. University area in Nottingham shows halving is shorter than 2 weeks when students self isolate in accommodation. π€ the big question: when and how to lift those restrictions again without causing another spike? I'd urge a degree of caution when interpreting case numbers because of the strains on the testing system. I'm not sure how many people are being tested but given the stuff I looked at a few weeks back I'd guess it's not much more than 100k. With that level of testing we're unlikely to reach the number of cases in France (almost identical population) yesterday of 45k because it'd imply an astronomical positivity rate of 45%. There are some really good folks publishing charts and data on twitter, for example... Travelling Tabby ( link - website) Richard ππ ( link) Colin Angus ( link) Dr Joe Pajak CSci NHS Foundation Trust Governor ( link) The following chart is a really good overview of the current situation within the UK at the moment (IMO of course)....
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Oct 25, 2020 11:55:24 GMT
Same reason as all the others that are at the top of the list - students?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 26, 2020 14:09:50 GMT
A Covid test that can provide a result in 12 minutes will be made available at high street pharmacy Boots.
The nasal swab test, which will cost Β£120, will be available in selected stores in the UK to people who are not showing symptoms.
Maybe they should make this type of test compulsory for anyone getting on a plane to go on holiday. Also, could be very popular for people in high risk areas who are not showing symptoms but want peace of mind.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 26, 2020 19:09:47 GMT
Not as expensive as it might have been. Payments to be made going forward but no backdating of the 20 odd years dodged so far. It's remarkable how little people seem to care about the cronyism/corruption/breaking of rules going on. It's almost like the "culture war" and Brexit divisions were deliberately sewn in order to allow lot of things to go under the radar in the name of supporting your side. Politics seem (deliberately) broken. Jo Maugham is Director of the Good Law Project
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 26, 2020 19:26:17 GMT
I think it's even simpler than that.
Our expectations of this bunch are so low that we simply aren't surprised by it.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 26, 2020 19:27:54 GMT
On a lighter note, for those with as juvenile a sense of humour as mine, there's a 1-hour South Park " Pandemic Special", which seems to be available to stream for free from the official website.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 26, 2020 20:19:09 GMT
This was actually in The Telegraph a couple of weeks ago: Covid procurement falls victim to whiff of cronyismIn another case being challenged by the Good Law Project, a political research company called Public First was directly awarded five contracts for polling and focus group activity on Covid-related matters.
This has raised eyebrows among rival pollsters not just because of the cost, but because Public First is run by the husband and wife team of James Frayne, one-time head of communications for Michael Gove and a close associate of Dominic Cummings, and Rachel Wolf, who co-wrote the last Conservative Party manifesto.
Astonishingly, the Government has chosen to defend the case not on the grounds that the contracts were perfectly lawful, but that the Good Law Project doesnβt have a sufficient economic interest in the matter to have any standing.
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 27, 2020 19:38:36 GMT
I see headlines doing the rounds of Switzerland running out of intensive care in 11 days. I think you are making an approximation. If its Switzerland, surely it will be in 10 days 17 hours 36 minutes and 24 seconds, precisely.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 28, 2020 15:48:10 GMT
Awful sounding reports from the news (Polish - use translate) and social media about the state of hospitals in Poland currently. It's an uncomfortable sort of thought to have, but are Poland and Czechia now suffering disproportionately more in this wave by virtue of having locked down earlier and avoided many deaths in the first wave? Genuine question.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 28, 2020 16:15:05 GMT
Awful sounding reports from the news (Polish - use translate) and social media about the state of hospitals in Poland currently. It's an uncomfortable sort of thought to have, but are Poland and Czechia now suffering disproportionately more in this wave by virtue of having locked down earlier and avoided many deaths in the first wave? Genuine question. There is precedent from previous pandemics on this (lower first wave equals higher second wave), and something I was always worried about. Also, we shouldn't be so stuck on countries: regions also important (though generally more intermingling and seeding within than between countries I agree). Eg Will London have a lesser second wave for having a worse first wave? Having said all that, Belgium seems to have been hit badly both times (and also locked down earlier than most places)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 28, 2020 16:33:28 GMT
Awful sounding reports from the news (Polish - use translate) and social media about the state of hospitals in Poland currently. It's an uncomfortable sort of thought to have, but are Poland and Czechia now suffering disproportionately more in this wave by virtue of having locked down earlier and avoided many deaths in the first wave? Genuine question. There is precedent from previous pandemics on this (lower first wave equals higher second wave), and something I was always worried about. Also, we shouldn't be so stuck on countries: regions also important (though generally more intermingling and seeding within than between countries I agree). Eg Will London have a lesser second wave for having a worse first wave? Having said all that, Belgium seems to have been hit badly both times (and also locked down earlier than most places) Is everybody counting on the same basis? They weren't to start with - and Belgium's figures were thought to be very high because they were using a much more aggressive definition. 'course, since the UK still can't organise a celebratory drink in a brewery when it comes to testing...
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 28, 2020 17:25:42 GMT
'course, since the UK still can't organise a celebratory drink in a brewery when it comes to testing... But it seems it can in a social club . It's becoming increasingly obvious that different people / interest groups / companies / institutions / parts of the country / politicians / parties / sub-groups thereof are pulling in different directions. At what point does somebody go "ok, we've lost control of this, and we don't have the support of the country, there's nothing we can do"?
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