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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 28, 2020 17:27:55 GMT
Awful sounding reports from the news (Polish - use translate) and social media about the state of hospitals in Poland currently. It's an uncomfortable sort of thought to have, but are Poland and Czechia now suffering disproportionately more in this wave by virtue of having locked down earlier and avoided many deaths in the first wave? Genuine question. From complete left field... Some months ago, I posted here about two fairly discrete groups of death rates I'd noticed across Europe, and postulated whether there might even be two different strains at work. The UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Spain were hit badly, but further east didn't seem to be suffering so badly. Pure speculation and most probably garbage, but it could explain why some countries are being worse hit now. Those countries now have the strain we had first? I stress again, pure speculation on my part (before a certain poster calls 'bull excrement' 😁). Whatever the reason, depressing isn't it?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Oct 28, 2020 18:02:52 GMT
Awful sounding reports from the news (Polish - use translate) and social media about the state of hospitals in Poland currently. It's an uncomfortable sort of thought to have, but are Poland and Czechia now suffering disproportionately more in this wave by virtue of having locked down earlier and avoided many deaths in the first wave? Genuine question. From complete left field... Some months ago, I posted here about two fairly discrete groups of death rates I'd noticed across Europe, and postulated whether there might even be two different strains at work. The UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Spain were hit badly, but further east didn't seem to be suffering so badly. Pure speculation and most probably garbage, but it could explain why some countries are being worse hit now. Those countries now have the strain we had first? I stress again, pure speculation on my part (before a certain poster calls 'bull excrement' 😁). Whatever the reason, depressing isn't it? There is a website somewhere (I had it at one point but don't think I bookmarked) that showed the different strains how they had mutated and where they had spread to, way above my pay grade, but fascinating stuff. Think I found it: nextstrain.org/ncov/globalEnjoy!
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 28, 2020 18:22:19 GMT
There is precedent from previous pandemics on this (lower first wave equals higher second wave), and something I was always worried about. Also, we shouldn't be so stuck on countries: regions also important (though generally more intermingling and seeding within than between countries I agree). Eg Will London have a lesser second wave for having a worse first wave? Having said all that, Belgium seems to have been hit badly both times (and also locked down earlier than most places) Is everybody counting on the same basis? They weren't to start with - and Belgium's figures were thought to be very high because they were using a much more aggressive definition. 'course, since the UK still can't organise a celebratory drink in a brewery when it comes to testing... Almost certainly not. And countries change counting methods frequently making even comparisons over time problematic.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 28, 2020 18:54:52 GMT
At what point does somebody go "ok, we've lost control of this, and we don't have the support of the country, there's nothing we can do"? About a week after hell freezes over.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 28, 2020 18:55:59 GMT
Awful sounding reports from the news (Polish - use translate) and social media about the state of hospitals in Poland currently. It's an uncomfortable sort of thought to have, but are Poland and Czechia now suffering disproportionately more in this wave by virtue of having locked down earlier and avoided many deaths in the first wave? Genuine question. From complete left field... Some months ago, I posted here about two fairly discrete groups of death rates I'd noticed across Europe, and postulated whether there might even be two different strains at work. The UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Spain were hit badly, but further east didn't seem to be suffering so badly. Pure speculation and most probably garbage, but it could explain why some countries are being worse hit now. Those countries now have the strain we had first? I stress again, pure speculation on my part (before a certain poster calls 'bull excrement' 😁). Whatever the reason, depressing isn't it? I think the primary reason is less to do with the strain and simply that they closed down particularly early. They went into full lockdown at the same time as Spain despite being way behind in the curve. To put it into context, Spain went into lockdown on 14th March, at which point they were reporting circa 7,500 cases a day. Poland started locking down on 12th March when they were literally reporting handfuls of cases and I believe before even a single person had died. They went into a very strict lockdown on 25th March with <5 deaths a day at the time. IMV it was a very swift and responsive action to do so, right ahead of the curve at a time when the virus still seemed relatively distant and almost non-existent. Their daily deaths peaked at just 40 in April, and even that was an outlier. Unfortunately, a byproduct of that is they have many more vulnerable people around to suffer from it this time around. Given the curve they face and the reports from the hospitals, I fear for what Poland is going to see in the next few weeks. It seems their healthcare system is already at breaking point. IFISAcava take your point re: being overly country specific. I'm less personally interested in Czechia (just as I have family in PL), but i think their second wave is proportionately even bigger than Poland's.So as you say, regional. edit: have attached a custom graph from the worldindata website (this website seems to work really well for interrogating data btw).
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Post by dan1 on Oct 28, 2020 19:18:54 GMT
Awful sounding reports from the news (Polish - use translate) and social media about the state of hospitals in Poland currently. It's an uncomfortable sort of thought to have, but are Poland and Czechia now suffering disproportionately more in this wave by virtue of having locked down earlier and avoided many deaths in the first wave? Genuine question. From complete left field... Some months ago, I posted here about two fairly discrete groups of death rates I'd noticed across Europe, and postulated whether there might even be two different strains at work. The UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Spain were hit badly, but further east didn't seem to be suffering so badly. Pure speculation and most probably garbage, but it could explain why some countries are being worse hit now. Those countries now have the strain we had first? I stress again, pure speculation on my part (before a certain poster calls 'bull excrement' 😁). Whatever the reason, depressing isn't it? The D614G mutation comes to mind. Forgotten what I read previously but wasn't it meant to be more infectious but no more harmful? I believe it now dominates the vast majority of infections worldwide (again, dragging that out from my memory). www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6Try spending a little time on Nextstrain.... nextstrain.org/ncov/europeEdit: or try tweeting twitter.com/nextstrain or one of the developers twitter.com/firefoxx66
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 28, 2020 19:52:34 GMT
I'm probably behind the curve with this* as I've only just really found it, but this World in data site really is excellent for data geeks. A nice simple clear graph, but fully customisable with lots of filter fields for all sorts of data, ability to switch between log/linear and all sorts For instance, easy to generate this view of daily new cases per million people across selected countries on a log scale, which illustrates really well why Italy, Belgium and even Germany are worried at present because of the steepness of their respective curves *bad taste joke there - enjoy.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 28, 2020 19:59:16 GMT
...look at the steepness of the UK's at the start of this month...
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 28, 2020 21:27:17 GMT
Sweden is interesting
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Post by dan1 on Oct 28, 2020 21:42:16 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 28, 2020 21:54:07 GMT
It is. I love the place, but I've got in-laws there. I couldn't hack the length of the winters, though. (Or was there something in particular you had in mind?)
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 28, 2020 22:06:43 GMT
But it seems it can in a social club . It's becoming increasingly obvious that different people / interest groups / companies / institutions / parts of the country / politicians / parties / sub-groups thereof are pulling in different directions.At what point does somebody go "ok, we've lost control of this, and we don't have the support of the country, there's nothing we can do"? My highlighted point is something I really think you've hit the spot with. Its split the country like B.....t did but I'm not saying they are correlated - I'd guess they are not. Just another big political chasm which is clearly what the country needs right now... As an aside, your BBC link contained this: There are thousands of members clubs across England, including Conservative clubs, working men's clubs and sports clubs.You'd think our "neutral" broadcaster would at least put them in alphabetical order....
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 28, 2020 22:07:58 GMT
It is. I love the place, but I've got in-laws there. I couldn't hack the length of the winters, though. (Or was there something in particular you had in mind?) LOL I couldn't upload the graph. Zero sign of increased deaths in second wave in Sweden - as always with the caveat - yet. Giesecke (Tegnell's pedescesor) always said come back in a year and compare what has happened across Europe before concluding who had the "right" policy regarding lockdowns. Five months to go - it will be (as I alluded to) interesting.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 28, 2020 22:20:54 GMT
The big difference between Sweden and the UK is that Sweden is a country of nice, sensible, responsible adults who will always put the socially sensible action ahead of their personal preferences - and they trust their nice, sensible, responsible politicians to do the right thing. (yes, we'll ignore SD - every country has its idiots)
That's why drawing comparisons between Sweden and the UK in 2020 is a total and utter non-starter...
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Post by dan1 on Oct 28, 2020 22:28:08 GMT
It is. I love the place, but I've got in-laws there. I couldn't hack the length of the winters, though. (Or was there something in particular you had in mind?) LOL I couldn't upload the graph. Zero sign of increased deaths in second wave in Sweden - as always with the caveat - yet. Giesecke (Tegnell's pedescesor) always said come back in a year and compare what has happened across Europe before concluding who had the "right" policy regarding lockdowns. Five months to go - it will be (as I alluded to) interesting. That's because Sweden are manipulating their death figures. They are currently resurrecting people at quite a rate, at least in excess of the new daily deaths announced. It would appear that Sweden's death rate compared to Norway, Finland & Denmark is a somewhat touchy subject for the Swedish health ministry. The health ministry have so far reported 38 deaths in October. However, if you track the deaths reported by the palliative care register you'll have seen that 118 people have died with Covid-19 but apparently not of Covid-19 (at least not all of them). Select the filter icon to the left then down to select Covid-19 and you'll see 4,613 have died with Covid-19 in palliative care. data.palliativregistret.se/utdata/report/enskilda.antal-dodsfall
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