mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 28, 2020 22:36:08 GMT
It would appear that Sweden's death rate compared to Norway, Finland & Denmark is a somewhat touchy subject for the Swedish health ministry. Here's an interesting chart from the FT:
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 29, 2020 0:27:35 GMT
The big difference between Sweden and the UK is that Sweden is a country of nice, sensible, responsible adults who will always put the socially sensible action ahead of their personal preferences - and they trust their nice, sensible, responsible politicians to do the right thing. (yes, we'll ignore SD - every country has its idiots)That's why drawing comparisons between Sweden and the UK in 2020 is a total and utter non-starter... You probably overestimate Swedes and underestimate the majority of UK adults (though not sadly UK politicians). But anyway the comparison is not especially between Sweden and the UK, it's whether strong suppression measures in the first phase (i.e. pretty much everywhere in Europe except Sweden) might make things worse, or at least make no overall difference, longer term.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 29, 2020 0:48:03 GMT
LOL I couldn't upload the graph. Zero sign of increased deaths in second wave in Sweden - as always with the caveat - yet. Giesecke (Tegnell's pedescesor) always said come back in a year and compare what has happened across Europe before concluding who had the "right" policy regarding lockdowns. Five months to go - it will be (as I alluded to) interesting. That's because Sweden are manipulating their death figures. They are currently resurrecting people at quite a rate, at least in excess of the new daily deaths announced. It would appear that Sweden's death rate compared to Norway, Finland & Denmark is a somewhat touchy subject for the Swedish health ministry. The health ministry have so far reported 38 deaths in October. However, if you track the deaths reported by the palliative care register you'll have seen that 118 people have died with Covid-19 but apparently not of Covid-19 (at least not all of them). Select the filter icon to the left then down to select Covid-19 and you'll see 4,613 have died with Covid-19 in palliative care. data.palliativregistret.se/utdata/report/enskilda.antal-dodsfallIt is arguable whether someone in palliative care (who by definition is dying) should be recorded as a COVID-19 death if they happen to catch it before dying (which statistically many will by chance alone). The argument isn't that Sweden is doing well - it is that nowhere in Europe will do well eventually, bar a few lucky regions (lucky by geography or lack of widespread seeding). There was a small window of opportunity to get on top of the virus, which some Asian countries managed perhaps due to previous experience with SARS1, ability to use more authoritarian methods, etc. But once established you are stuffed and can't stop the spread - temporary suppression is the best you can hope for, at great cost to health in other areas, and for a brief period. If you manage to slow it initially, it will simply come back, perhaps even stronger than if you hadn't suppressed it so much. It is futile to think you can stop it, by trying to do so you cause at least as much harm as good, and the main aim should be to stop your health service getting overwhelmed (flattening the curve by the non-pharmacological interventions we are now all familiar with - hands, face, space and isolate with symptoms/virus) and protect the vulnerable (eg care homes). Those are the arguments. As it turns out, there just might be a vaccine a bit quicker than initially expected, and unprecedented historically, so that the early suppression tactic might actually just "win" (i.e. lose less) overall, but that is still not certain.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 29, 2020 9:00:41 GMT
That's because Sweden are manipulating their death figures. They are currently resurrecting people at quite a rate, at least in excess of the new daily deaths announced. It would appear that Sweden's death rate compared to Norway, Finland & Denmark is a somewhat touchy subject for the Swedish health ministry. The health ministry have so far reported 38 deaths in October. However, if you track the deaths reported by the palliative care register you'll have seen that 118 people have died with Covid-19 but apparently not of Covid-19 (at least not all of them). Select the filter icon to the left then down to select Covid-19 and you'll see 4,613 have died with Covid-19 in palliative care. data.palliativregistret.se/utdata/report/enskilda.antal-dodsfallIt is arguable whether someone in palliative care (who by definition is dying) should be recorded as a COVID-19 death if they happen to catch it before dying (which statistically many will by chance alone). The argument isn't that Sweden is doing well - it is that nowhere in Europe will do well eventually, bar a few lucky regions (lucky by geography or lack of widespread seeding). There was a small window of opportunity to get on top of the virus, which some Asian countries managed perhaps due to previous experience with SARS1 etc. But once established you are stuffed and can't stop the spread - temporary suppression is the best you can hope for, at great cost to health in other areas, and for a brief period. If you manage to slow it initially, it will simply come back, perhaps even stronger than if you hadn't suppressed it so much. It is futile to think you can stop it, by trying to do so you cause at least as much harm as good, and the main aim should be to stop your health service getting overwhelmed (flattening the curve by the non-pharmacological interventions we are now all familiar with - hands, face, space) and protect the vulnerable (eg care homes). Those are the arguments. As it turns out, there just might be a vaccine a bit quicker than initially expected, and unprecedented historically, so that the early suppression tactic might actually just "win" (i.e. lose less) overall, but that is still not certain. I was merely challenging the notion that Sweden is interesting and with zero sign of increased deaths. Sweden, like much of Europe, is not interesting but deathly familiar. The story of this pandemic is how ruthlessly predictable it has been. On the interesting front, I was watching a Rocket Lab launch yesterday evening from North Island, NZ (I urge you to watch it here ). The casual shot of a packed control room with the absence of social distancing, masks, sanitiser, screens etc was a refreshing reminder of how well they've done. The fact they appear so unassuming and are not continually rubbing our metaphorical noses in it just makes me even sicker Let's celebrate success not failure.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 29, 2020 9:27:29 GMT
New Zealand are one of the geographically lucky ones, who were dealt a good hand and played it well. But just as Sweden may not be a model for the rest of Europe, nor is New Zealand. They also have to remain in isolation from the rest of the world for a couple of years - which is fairly practicable when you are so far away from everywhere else, but does have its own set of consequences.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 29, 2020 9:31:32 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 29, 2020 10:03:18 GMT
As it turns out, there just might be a vaccine a bit quicker than initially expected, and unprecedented historically, so that the early suppression tactic might actually just " win" (i.e. lose less) overall, but that is still not certain. I watched this clip earlier, it is clear China has done 'enough' to prevent the second wave. No masks, no social distancing, almost on a different planet. China hasn't made any relaxation regarding travel restriction. www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/china
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Oct 29, 2020 10:07:49 GMT
New Zealand are one of the geographically lucky ones, who were dealt a good hand and played it well. But just as Sweden may not be a model for the rest of Europe, nor is New Zealand. They also have to remain in isolation from the rest of the world for a couple of years - which is fairly practicable when you are so far away from everywhere else, but does have its own set of consequences. They are still getting cases and the trend seems to be up again (from the worldometers), although at a very low level, hopefully they can keep it under control until a vaccine arrives.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 29, 2020 11:12:45 GMT
New Zealand are one of the geographically lucky ones, who were dealt a good hand and played it well. But just as Sweden may not be a model for the rest of Europe, nor is New Zealand. They also have to remain in isolation from the rest of the world for a couple of years - which is fairly practicable when you are so far away from everywhere else, but does have its own set of consequences. They are still getting cases and the trend seems to be up again (from the worldometers), although at a very low level, hopefully they can keep it under control until a vaccine arrives. Those are cases detected in quarantine facilities, i.e. imported and not community transmission. Hence no need for social distancing, masks and all that stuff.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Oct 29, 2020 11:35:53 GMT
I watched this clip earlier, it is clear China has done 'enough' to prevent the second wave. No masks, no social distancing, almost on a different planet. China hasn't made any relaxation regarding travel restriction. www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/chinaChina is an interesting case. Have they "done a New Zealand"? Which would suggest they need to be isolated until there is an effective vaccine (or people get bored of corona)? Or are they still more restricted than we are lead to believe? Or something else (climate, genetics, etc.) is at play - there was a lot of talk about BAMES being more susceptible in the UK and genetic factors (regularly linked to ethnicity) often appear to impact disease prevalence.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 29, 2020 11:42:18 GMT
China is an interesting case. Have they "done a New Zealand"? Which would suggest they need to be isolated until there is an effective vaccine (or people get bored of corona)? Or are they still more restricted than we are lead to believe? Or something else (climate, genetics, etc.) is at play - there was a lot of talk about BAMES being more susceptible in the UK and genetic factors (regularly linked to ethnicity) often appear to impact disease prevalence. I suspect that the sense of self entitlement is far less in China, and also the penalty for breaking the rules is far higher.
If you want to see what the attitude of the average Brit is have a look at the travel forums since the Canary islands were removed from the isolation list. They're full of people from tier 3 areas (where it is recomended you don't travel outside your area) who can't wait to get away for a few weeks.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 29, 2020 11:49:16 GMT
I watched this clip earlier, it is clear China has done 'enough' to prevent the second wave. No masks, no social distancing, almost on a different planet. China hasn't made any relaxation regarding travel restriction. www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/chinaChina is an interesting case. Have they "done a New Zealand"? Which would suggest they need to be isolated until there is an effective vaccine (or people get bored of corona)? Or are they still more restricted than we are lead to believe? Or something else (climate, genetics, etc.) is at play - there was a lot of talk about BAMES being more susceptible in the UK and genetic factors (regularly linked to ethnicity) often appear to impact disease prevalence. As with the discussion last night re: the central European region (e.g. PL/CZ), in my view the evidence points towards it being the simplest explanation. Countries that locked down at the first sniff of trouble and then closed borders were able to practically eliminate it. In China's case they perhaps didn't lock down super early, but also not massively late, and when they did it then boy did they do it properly i.e. in draconian fashion. South Korea is another example. They clearly aren't immune in any way what with the church superspreader event, yet they knew what they were tackling and dealt with it in what we would see as an extreme but effective way. New Zealand 'simply' locked down hard and fast, and never exceeded 150 cases a day because of it. I see it as perhaps analagous to putting out a small fire in a wastepaper basket vs trying to tackle it later when whole rooms are on fire. That's not to dismiss genetics, average age of population, health, climate etc entirely of course. Those obviously are factors. It just looks to me like not letting it get out of control is by far the main thing. PL/CZ are perfect examples - locking down hard and fast in March = very few deaths. This time around = different story. It wasn't the sauerkraut after all. Shame, I rather like it.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Oct 29, 2020 11:57:37 GMT
That's not to dismiss genetics, average age of population, health, climate etc entirely of course. Those obviously are factors. It just looks to me like not letting it get out of control is by far the main thing. PL/CZ are perfect examples - locking down hard and fast in March = very few deaths. This time around = different story.I think I am minded to agree, in which case - China is now sitting on an unexploded mine hoping that it can be defused by a vaccine before anyone kicks it too hard...?
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Post by dan1 on Oct 29, 2020 12:10:56 GMT
That's not to dismiss genetics, average age of population, health, climate etc entirely of course. Those obviously are factors. It just looks to me like not letting it get out of control is by far the main thing. PL/CZ are perfect examples - locking down hard and fast in March = very few deaths. This time around = different story.I think I am minded to agree, in which case - China is now sitting on an unexploded mine hoping that it can be defused by a vaccine before anyone kicks it too hard...? I prefer an analogy with Sweden in WWII. Neutral and surrounded by human inflicted death and destruction beyond the borders. Occasional incursions (think imported cases).
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 29, 2020 12:11:52 GMT
I think I am minded to agree, in which case - China is now sitting on an unexploded mine hoping that it can be defused by a vaccine before anyone kicks it too hard...? Isn't everybody? I'm far from being a supporter of the Chinese regime, but IMHO they are far more likely to avoid large scale disorder / social disruption than pretty much any other country, including the UK.
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