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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 3, 2020 23:16:12 GMT
The WHO official states,"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died". He carefully avoids ascribing a fatality rate. Anyone tempted to quote "WHO's latest fatality rate of 3.4%" should note the subtle difference: 3.4% is a plain acknowledgement of the fact that 3,168 deaths over 92,871 reported cases represent 3.4%. While it's honest of WHO to implicitly acknowledge their previous 1 - 2% was too conservative, the figure of 3.4% is still meaningless as CFR (case fatality rate) unless the other 96.6% (we're now talking 89,703 people) all go on to recover - which they clearly won't. So WHO haven't estimated a CFR here, they've just painted the most positive picture they can conjure without blatantly lying. Why does this matter? Well, if you expect the masses to adopt the preventative measures you advocate, you'd better be honest with them. The theory of Risk Homeostasis suggests that if people believe their risk is only 1%, they will not bother to wash their hands or sneeze into a handkerchief, whereas if they believe it's 50% risk to themselves they will comply to the letter. So don't underplay the risk! Today's announcement has uncomfortable parallels with SARS, where WHO reported 4% during the epidemic... only to find it was 9.6% at the end. It must be a difficult path to tread, giving out the truth while trying not to worry and panic people. But people also need a strong message that containment and good hygiene really are necessary.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 3, 2020 23:51:14 GMT
More deaths in Italy today (27) than the rest of world combined (24).  Amazingly only 2 deaths in China. |
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 4, 2020 0:23:22 GMT
More deaths in Italy today (27) than the rest of world combined (24). Amazingly only 2 deaths in China. Just a few hundred K to go then ?
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 4, 2020 0:45:31 GMT
More deaths in Italy today (27) than the rest of world combined (24). Amazingly only 2 deaths in China. Just a few hundred K to go then ? I appreciate the numbers aren't high (thankfully), but I find it remarkable that one small country could possibly outstrip the entire combined RoW at this stage of the game. I doubt any data modelling/virus modelling would have predicted that.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 4, 2020 8:04:42 GMT
The WHO official states,"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died". He carefully avoids ascribing a fatality rate. Anyone tempted to quote "WHO's latest fatality rate of 3.4%" should note the subtle difference: 3.4% is a plain acknowledgement of the fact that 3,168 deaths over 92,871 reported cases represent 3.4%. .... Yes, the BBC were somewhat lax in converting that statement to "fatality rate =3.4%"
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 4, 2020 9:27:05 GMT
I may be out on a limb here but maybe we should factor in the ultrahigh number of media workers paddling frantically to justify their existence and to get their 15 minutes in the spotlight.
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Post by dan1 on Mar 4, 2020 9:52:13 GMT
Is it just me in being disappointed, if not surprised, by the lack of transparency of our own government reporting of new incidences of infections? Specifically, we're provided details of new cases on a county by county level yet sparse little extra information is released, one assumes to prevent (what the state would describe as) unnecessary disruption. They're attempting to contain outbreaks by contact tracing yet this is only a partial solution because it fails to account for all the interactions where tracing can not be done, for example, travel on public transport, shopping visits and numerous other incidences.
What I hope is happening is that those in responsible for containment have built a mapping timeline of the movements of those infected built from mobile phone records and the like (employer tracking data too). It should allow them publicise cases to the local community to inform them they may have come into contact with a confirmed case and to seek medical advise if they experience symptoms. I guess what concerns me most about this spread is that most people may put symptoms down to seasonal flu or the common cold until it gets to the stage where they require medical intervention by which time they've infected many others.
We often criticise the likes of China for their control of information but it would appear to me we're on quite a weak footing ourselves. If anything, it's more of a concern in the "West" because rumours via social media proliferate more widely than I would have thought the authorities allow it in China.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 4, 2020 10:02:02 GMT
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Post by Please turn me over on Mar 4, 2020 10:05:53 GMT
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 4, 2020 10:07:47 GMT
Might be a good time to revisit BBC4's Contagion TV programme (here), investing how a pandemic might spread in the UK starting from Haslemere (ironic eh?). |
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Post by spareapennyor2 on Mar 4, 2020 10:14:21 GMT
Free game on Android play store
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 4, 2020 10:26:15 GMT
More deaths in Italy today (27) than the rest of world combined (24). Amazingly only 2 deaths in China. now reporting "China has confirmed 119 new cases of the virus and 38 more deaths. The majority were in the province of Hubei"
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Post by dan1 on Mar 4, 2020 10:29:14 GMT
It's very difficult (probably possible but not practically) to trace inanimate objects unless by design such as cash. However, if you work in retail and a known infected person visited your outlet wouldn't you like to know? I raise this because I don't think the tracing goes to this level of detail, I believe it relies on more manual techniques.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 4, 2020 10:41:30 GMT
Why limit the worry to cash? Take your card out, press it to the card reader, next person arrives at the self-checkout (or whatever), repeat.....
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Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 4, 2020 11:05:12 GMT
Why limit the worry to cash? Take your card out, press it to the card reader, next person arrives at the self-checkout (or whatever), repeat..... Put card in pocket and push the trolly that is covered in snot from previous user ?. Isopropyl alcohol <£20 for five litre quick squirt and wipe will always help. Tissue manufacturing might be good investment 
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