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Post by batchoy on Mar 4, 2020 12:05:36 GMT
Is it just me in being disappointed, if not surprised, by the lack of transparency of our own government reporting of new incidences of infections? Specifically, we're provided details of new cases on a county by county level yet sparse little extra information is released, one assumes to prevent (what the state would describe as) unnecessary disruption. - The NHS are limited in the location information they can release in order to protect patient confidentiality.
- The only way of protecting yourself is personal hygiene
- Giving locations wouldn’t help anyway – you cant see the virus and there are people with the virus in many places so telling you locations is fairly pointless
- Knowing may lull you into complacency about people you don’t know and wont protect you.
In terms of the first one the ignorant vitrol that has appeared in comments on a local newspaper website where local schools have announced parents of a child have been dignosed as being infected is truely frightening so confidentiality needs to be paramount.
Even my daughter who is half East Asian and so has almond eyes has come in for threatening abuse walking down the street, but the stupid thing is that her friend who she was with is probably the greater risk since she went sking in Italy over half term.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 4, 2020 12:44:51 GMT
Even my daughter who is half East Asian and so has almond eyes has come in for threatening abuse walking down the street, but the stupid thing is that her friend who she was with is probably the greater risk since she went sking in Italy over half term. Behaviour like that (and this) disgusts me  .
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one21
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Post by one21 on Mar 4, 2020 13:13:58 GMT
Diamond Princess cohort update 634 cases of whom 328 were asymptomatic cases Deaths - 7 (of whom we know at least 5 were elderly: 70s/80s. Not all details of the others available when I looked). So I would extrapolate: - There are many asymptomatic, undiagnosed cases out there - This means the death rates are probably significantly lower than previous estimates - even in a high risk cohort (with many elderly people on a cruise) the rate is around 1% (unless there are some people yet to die - could be some still very unwell) - in a less skewed population the death rate will be less than 1% (as the earlier link I posted suggests) - like 'flu it is overwhelmingly the elderly and already ill that are at risk (plus healthcare workers it seems - good luck with the emergency plan of getting elderly retired doctors back into the health service) The Diamond Princess was always going to be an interesting and informative lab experiment. I also suspect those that we're stuck on it probably felt like they were in one :-(
Therefore, could we take medical results from the Diamond Princess (when they eventually become available) to be the ‘worst case model’ - As all passengers were tested and the majority were elderly and from a diverse ethnic origin.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 4, 2020 14:49:53 GMT
85 in UK and rising!! FAST
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Brainer
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Post by Brainer on Mar 4, 2020 14:59:49 GMT
Breaking news from the BBC:
17:36
BreakingCovid-19 fatality rate is 3.4% - WHO
The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) says about 3.4% of those confirmed to have been infected with the new coronavirus have died - which is much higher than the fatality rate for seasonal flu, at less than 1%.
Also:
Health experts believe the evidence from China suggests that Covid-19 is not generally transmitted by people who have no symptoms (flu can be), and that in general the virus does not transmit as efficiently as flu.
However the proportion of people who become severely ill or die from Covid-19 is higher than with flu. The mortality rate at the moment from Covid-19 is around 3.4%, whereas with flu it is under 1%. This may change once results from serological studies come in.
I think that is a good news/bad news storyline.
If 3.4% holds out that is higher than previous estimates, but I wonder if it is skewed by the Wuhan data where the majority of deaths have occurred. The lack of asymptomatic transmission is good news for containment measures.
Could potentially explain the Wuhan data, on top of health services being overwhelmed.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 4, 2020 15:25:08 GMT
If 3.4% holds out that is higher than previous estimates, but I wonder if it is skewed by the Wuhan data where the majority of deaths have occurred. The lack of asymptomatic transmission is good news for containment measures.
Could potentially explain the Wuhan data, on top of health services being overwhelmed.
As an aside, has anyone, ever, in the whole known universe of research papers, ever published anything which didn't conclude with the words "...more research is required" ? [=more grant funding please]
Clearly very valid in this case of course.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 4, 2020 15:33:15 GMT
85 in UK and rising!! FAST BBC states "The number of coronavirus cases in the UK has risen by 34 in a day, to a total of 85. Twenty-nine had recently travelled to affected countries or picked it up from people known to have travelled from abroad. But three more contracted the virus in the UK and no one knows where they got it from."
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 4, 2020 16:31:52 GMT
If you die from it then that’s 100% for you. That’s the only statistic that maters. The statistics are measured globally for some groups the infection rate is over 50% having a lower overall rate just gives a false hope you won’t get it.
If the horsemen pestilence and death are visiting you your time is up.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 4, 2020 17:27:16 GMT
Could potentially explain the Wuhan data, on top of health services being overwhelmed.
As an aside, has anyone, ever, in the whole known universe of research papers, ever published anything which didn't conclude with the words "...more research is required" ? [=more grant funding please]
Clearly very valid in this case of course.
In his scholarly paper on the balance of questions and answers in medical research, Professor Anthony David found only 3 research papers that had purported to find more answers than questions. He addresses your specific question too: "As a follow on, I carried out a similar literature search for the phrase “need more research.” This yielded 162 articles, only one of which—a thought provoking polemic on aromatherapy—suggested the need for less research."He concluded: "Overwhelmingly more medical publications conclude that there are more questions than answers. Those claiming the opposite turn out on closer scrutiny to have an excess of questions too...The frequent claim that we need more research is hard to sustain given the apparent outcome of this effort." www.bmj.com/content/323/7327/1462
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 4, 2020 17:55:58 GMT
Well, I have to applaud the people behind the new Bond (which I was looking forwards to for a change) both for the film's title, and their decision to delay the release to November.
"No Time To Die".
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 4, 2020 18:34:22 GMT
As an aside, has anyone, ever, in the whole known universe of research papers, ever published anything which didn't conclude with the words "...more research is required" ? [=more grant funding please]
Clearly very valid in this case of course.
In his scholarly paper on the balance of questions and answers in medical research, Professor Anthony David found only 3 research papers that had purported to find more answers than questions. He addresses your specific question too: "As a follow on, I carried out a similar literature search for the phrase “need more research.” This yielded 162 articles, only one of which—a thought provoking polemic on aromatherapy—suggested the need for less research."He concluded: "Overwhelmingly more medical publications conclude that there are more questions than answers. Those claiming the opposite turn out on closer scrutiny to have an excess of questions too...The frequent claim that we need more research is hard to sustain given the apparent outcome of this effort." www.bmj.com/content/323/7327/1462If only one could like a post more than once. trying not to laugh out loud while on a packed train (oops, packed train, shouldn't be here.....)
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 4, 2020 19:29:27 GMT
In his scholarly paper on the balance of questions and answers in medical research, Professor Anthony David found only 3 research papers that had purported to find more answers than questions. He addresses your specific question too: "As a follow on, I carried out a similar literature search for the phrase “need more research.” This yielded 162 articles, only one of which—a thought provoking polemic on aromatherapy—suggested the need for less research."He concluded: "Overwhelmingly more medical publications conclude that there are more questions than answers. Those claiming the opposite turn out on closer scrutiny to have an excess of questions too...The frequent claim that we need more research is hard to sustain given the apparent outcome of this effort." www.bmj.com/content/323/7327/1462If only one could like a post more than once. trying not to laugh out loud while on a packed train (oops, packed train, shouldn't be here.....)
If you're anxious about being on a packed train, whatever you do don't bite your finger nails
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 4, 2020 20:42:15 GMT
Well, I have to applaud the people behind the new Bond (which I was looking forwards to for a change) both for the film's title, and their decision to delay the release to November. "No Time To Die". I prefer the Klingon, today is a good day to die (in battle).
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 5, 2020 13:39:41 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 5, 2020 17:10:18 GMT
Wondered how long it would take.. Oh well.. if you have to.  Actually you're right, it's just Trump Trump Trump all the way. Look, I can even blame COVID-19 on him. In 2017 he signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. That resulted in ~$500m of funding to the CDC not being reinstated. www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/cuts-to-prevention-and-public-health-fund-puts-cdc-programs-at-risk-30298"By choosing not to renew the supplemental package, the CDC will reduce or stop work in 39 of 49 foreign countries focused on preventing infectious-disease epidemics and other health threats. Slashing those programs, along with financial support for PPHF, which provides infrastructure and support for some of those programs, hampers the CDC’s broader capacity to respond to and contain disease outbreaks. And, he notes, the cuts limit research innovation. The National Institutes of Health, he says, plays a valuable role in basic research to combat disease, but translation work is done by the CDC, so programs related to such research could be affected.
Such cuts will have serious consequences, Frieden says. “We’re more likely to have to fight dangerous organisms here in the U.S.” And the CDC will have less money than in the past to fight them". www.the-scientist.com/the-nutshell/cdc-to-drastically-cut-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreaks-30332"In an email to staffers reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the CDC says that it will continue global health security activities in 10 countries: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Jordan, and Guatemala. It will scale back efforts in China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda, and Congo—some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious diseases".As much as I loathe Trump the above may have been incorrect. Apparently he did try to defund the CDC etc, but this was rejected by Congress.
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