mrk
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Post by mrk on Jan 16, 2021 11:58:06 GMT
How close to the top of the other “vaccination” table is GBR on a per capita basis? That’d be the “naturally” acquired antigen triggered immune response aka catching SARS-Cov-2 as opposed to synthetic acquired antigen triggered immune response aka vaccination rollout. With circa 3.3m positive tested cases I’d estimate up to between 6.6m and 10m have had a naturally acquired antigen triggered immune response to date taking into account cases that were never tested. That compares with 3.2m to 13th Jan that have had a first dose vaccination. The MRC BSU (see here) estimate an attack rate of 19% (18% to 20% at 95% CI) for England. Assuming that's valid across UK we get to something like 12.7m infections.... FWIW Those who had the virus will still be offered a vaccine anyway.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 16, 2021 12:54:17 GMT
The MRC BSU (see here) estimate an attack rate of 19% (18% to 20% at 95% CI) for England. Assuming that's valid across UK we get to something like 12.7m infections.... FWIW Those who had the virus will still be offered a vaccine anyway. True, but many of us who have had it will use our natural immunity and give others priority for the vaccine, perhaps taking up a vaccine dose in 6 months (or later if research suggests longer lasing immunity). Anecdotally, I have heard reactions to the vaccine are a bit worse if you have had recent COVID anyway.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 16, 2021 13:29:38 GMT
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Post by stevepn on Jan 16, 2021 15:31:49 GMT
I'll leave you all to form a view on which section of society was responsible.
It's known as socialising and enjoying yourselves, something far too many of use haven't done in a long time.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 16, 2021 15:44:39 GMT
I'll leave you all to form a view on which section of society was responsible. It's known as socialising and enjoying yourselves, something far too many of use haven't done in a long time. For reasons that are blindingly obvious to all but selfish, entitled idiots.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 16, 2021 16:06:46 GMT
It's known as socialising and enjoying yourselves, something far too many of use haven't done in a long time. For reasons that are blindingly obvious to all but selfish, entitled idiots. If the disease only affected students and the young, how much would you be willing to change your life and for how long?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 16, 2021 16:33:09 GMT
For reasons that are blindingly obvious to all but selfish, entitled idiots. If the disease only affected students and the young, how much would you be willing to change your life and for how long? If you're meaning it "only affects the old", then that's simply wrong. There is no single demographic group that it affects. Young, old, white, BAME, male, female, ill, well. Some worse than others, sure. But it affects EVERYBODY. And it isn't a binary outcome of "die or be fine", either. Long covid is going to be affecting a LOT of people for a long while to come.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jan 16, 2021 16:53:11 GMT
For reasons that are blindingly obvious to all but selfish, entitled idiots. If the disease only affected students and the young, how much would you be willing to change your life and for how long? Just like young people have older people who are important in their life, older people have younger people in their lives that they would want to protect. As long as it takes should be everyone's answer. And as Adrianc said Covid isn't picky, you could be young and fit and still die from it.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Jan 16, 2021 17:02:13 GMT
Please man up . Considering the depredations of ill health and disease even in our lifetme there has been a disproprtionate overreaction to this virus. Most of us will get over it pretty swiftly. I spent most of my 6th year off school with childhood health problems . Not unusual in the 50's . The previous generation's survival rates were much worse. This fuss is because people cannot accept that they will have to nurse the vulnerable at home and help them die. We abdicated that responsbility with the advent of care homes.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 16, 2021 17:11:07 GMT
If the disease only affected students and the young, how much would you be willing to change your life and for how long? Just like young people have older people who are important in their life, older people have younger people in their lives that they would want to protect. As long as it takes should be everyone's answer. And as Adrianc said Covid isn't picky, you could be young and fit and still die from it."Could", yes. But relative to the older population, much much less likely. And therefore the relative risk it carries to you relative to other life risks is substantially less the younger you are.
The following article looks interesting, though I've only skim read it, and as it was published end of Sept and uses a date set up to mid June, is of course a touch out of date.
Some eye catching statements/numbers in there. For example; "the risks of catching and dying from the virus vary 10 000 fold depending on age...".
there is in effect an exponential increase in risk relative to age.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 16, 2021 17:19:05 GMT
I'll leave you all to form a view on which section of society was responsible.
It’s quite predictable snow will attract a crowd. However, the current rules are not easy to enforce. It’s not easy to hear people not staying at home for fun and kids suffer tremendously at home during lockdown. IIRC, before the rules changed, 📖 Organised outdoor sport for disabled people & under 18 is allowed to continue in Tier 4 restriction. The current lockdown rules: Organised outdoor sport for disabled people is allowed to continue. Children under 5, and up to 2 carers for a person with a disability who needs continuous care, are not counted towards the gatherings limits for exercising outside. www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home#exercising
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 16, 2021 17:28:30 GMT
Please man up . Considering the depredations of ill health and disease even in our lifetme there has been a disproprtionate overreaction to this virus. Most of us will get over it pretty swiftly. I spent most of my 6th year off school with childhood health problems . Not unusual in the 50's . The previous generation's survival rates were much worse. This fuss is because people cannot accept that they will have to nurse the vulnerable at home and help them die. We abdicated that responsbility with the advent of care homes. "Man up"? "Disproportionate"? www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/november2020November 2020 - +15% deaths over 5yr average. Covid #1 cause of death for the month with 18.1% of all deaths registered in England, 21.6% in Wales - 84% higher than #2 cause (Alz/dementia) And that's November. December figures are due on Monday. Look at that April spike. Covid alone killed nearly as many people as ALL causes in an average year. Imagine what this month's figures are going to look like when they're released in February, with 2.5x as many daily deaths as November... Tomorrow is likely to tip the UK over 90,000 Covid deaths, if not then definitely Monday (88,600 currently, 1,300 today). Total annual deaths from ALL causes are usually around 600k. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/Then there's the knock-on to everything else. A friend was diagnosed with cancer ten days ago - she's just been told the operation that was scheduled for ten days time is almost certain to be postponed, due to the sheer number of Covid patients. She's sole carer for her late-nineties mother who has severe dementia - social services finally found a bed for her in the 20th care home tried.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Jan 16, 2021 17:46:33 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 16, 2021 17:52:41 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 16, 2021 18:23:56 GMT
I'll leave you all to form a view on which section of society was responsible.
It’s quite predictable snow will attract a crowd. However, the current rules are not easy to enforce. It’s not easy to hear people not staying at home for fun and kids suffer tremendously at home during lockdown. IIRC, before the rules changed, 📖 Organised outdoor sport for disabled people & under 18 is allowed to continue in Tier 4 restriction. The current lockdown rules: Organised outdoor sport for disabled people is allowed to continue. Children under 5, and up to 2 carers for a person with a disability who needs continuous care, are not counted towards the gatherings limits for exercising outside. www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home#exercisingUnfortunately there are 2 minor drawbacks with this:
- I can't find anywhere that classifies snowball fights as a form of sport, and
- I've seen the video of the offending get together. Organised it wasn't (it was a free for all)
On a wider note your comments exemplify the problem with getting the virus under control: there are far too many people who's only interest in life is finding ways around the regulations.
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