michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,712 
Likes: 2,986
|
Post by michaelc on Mar 11, 2020 17:14:47 GMT
Italian numbers late today. Bracing for another big rise. Bloody hell. 12,462 cases total. Increase of 2313 with nearly 200 deaths in the last 24 hours. Really, really bad. 
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,626
Likes: 1,742
|
Post by benaj on Mar 11, 2020 17:31:20 GMT
Is the journalist under pressure not comparing stats with China?
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Mar 11, 2020 17:33:52 GMT
Interesting graphic, thanks  .
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,626
Likes: 1,742
|
Post by benaj on Mar 11, 2020 17:39:02 GMT
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Worldometers has added a new column, Total number of cases per million population. Here's the league table so far 1. Italy 206 cases / million 2. South Korea 151 cases / million 3. Bahrain 111 cases / million Huabei region 1148 cases / millionChina 56 cases / million UK 6.7 cases / million Macao less than 0.01 cases / million Sources from WHO
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Mar 11, 2020 17:48:13 GMT
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Worldometers has added a new column, Total number of cases per million population. Here's the league table so far 1. Italy 206 cases / million 2. South Korea 151 cases / million 3. Bahrain 111 cases / million Huabei region 1148 cases / million China 56 cases / million UK 6.7 cases / million Macao less than 0.01 cases / million Sources from WHO That table really illustrates something odd about the Italian stats - less than twice as many cases as S Korea (12,462 vs 7,755) but almost 14 times the deaths (827 vs 60), and S Korea has had cases longer (SK: 20 Jan, Italy 31 Jan)
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Mar 11, 2020 17:49:08 GMT
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Worldometers has added a new column, Total number of cases per million population. Here's the league table so far 1. Italy 206 cases / million 2. South Korea 151 cases / million 3. Bahrain 111 cases / million Huabei region 1148 cases / millionChina 56 cases / million UK 6.7 cases / million Macao less than 0.01 cases / million Sources from WHO Be interesting to see that alongside data about how much testing has been done.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Mar 11, 2020 17:50:24 GMT
That table really illustrates something odd about the Italian stats - less than twice as many cases as S Korea (12,462 vs 7,755) but almost 14 times the deaths (827 vs 60), and S Korea has had cases longer (SK: 20 Jan, Italy 31 Jan) Yeah, when the dust settles on all this it will be interesting to understand why Italy was (/seemed to be) such an outlier.
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Mar 11, 2020 18:04:00 GMT
That table really illustrates something odd about the Italian stats - less than twice as many cases as S Korea (12,462 vs 7,755) but almost 14 times the deaths (827 vs 60), and S Korea has had cases longer (SK: 20 Jan, Italy 31 Jan) Yeah, when the dust settles on all this it will be interesting to understand why Italy was (/seemed to be) such an outlier. I wonder if Coronavirus was in Italy for some time (weeks?) before they realised it was there, making them very slow to react.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Mar 11, 2020 18:09:47 GMT
It'll probably be a combination of different factors.
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,712
Likes: 2,986
|
Post by michaelc on Mar 11, 2020 18:35:28 GMT
Yeah, when the dust settles on all this it will be interesting to understand why Italy was (/seemed to be) such an outlier. I wonder if Coronavirus was in Italy for some time (weeks?) before they realised it was there, making them very slow to react.
Possibly and other factors too as others have suggested. I wonder if their health system is as good as in S. Korea? I wonder the same about ours though..... Also on a different issue, if they implement "lockdown" in the UK, what would be a valid reason to travel, who would check and what evidence would you need? Planning to emigrate in a few weeks - not sure if that would be deemed a valid reason !
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,051
Likes: 4,440
|
Post by agent69 on Mar 11, 2020 18:58:37 GMT
The virus is spreading around the world and it is impossible to stop it no matter how much testing, contact tracing or quarantining you do. The point of these actions is to work out where the hotspots are going to be and to slow the spread down so that the NHS isn't overwhelmed all at once; i.e. flatten the curve. I think the UK's position - which is evidence based and mathematically modelled - is the best way of dealing with this without draconian restrictions on day to day life for many months or knee jerk reactions which may intuitively seem like the right thing to do but could then make problems worse. Take for example closing football stadiums to spectators - more people would then watch the game down the local pub instead and would be at a similar infection risk than if they had gone to the stadium in the first place. You need to bar all outside social and commercial activity to effectively control this, Wuhan style and this simply isn't going to happen in a democracy. Plus of course you leave yourself wide open to a second wave of infections. Of course any mathematical model is only as good as its incorporated assumptions but we have already learned a lot about this virus thanks to China, South Korea, Italy and various cruise ships. The USA on the other hand have been way too complacent and have carried out hardly any tests considering a population 5x the size. When the army starts sterilising the streets of Manhattan in biohazard suits maybe they will wake up but it will be too late by then for them to do any preparation. So how do you account for the fall off in cases in places like China, Hong Kong and Singapore?
If I'm looking for a bolt hole to flee to in order to avoid getting the virus one of the above 3 looks favourite,
|
|
|
|
Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 11, 2020 19:00:44 GMT
Had a fever a few days ago and can confirm that they wouldn't check for the virus unless there is also a cough and suspected contact with a confirmed case or travel to a high risk area. Regarding checking everybody. It is not required (too expensive) under the assumption that the virus *will* spread and the main priority is to delay that. There are probably few in power or strategic positions that still believe it might not spread. A slower spread will buy time for developing treatments; that would be good enough for and justifiable by decision makers. It may also lead to less infected people if overall the duration of the epidemic would stay roughly the same. There will not be public money to do much more. They could prohibit gatherings above a certain size, I guess, as they do in other countries already. That decision has to be balanced against the likely panic (and more toilet role buying) it may cause. Bye the way: donations to food banks are down by some 15-25% in some cases. If you have a spare tenner: Supermarkets often have a box for goods at the exit. My bold above. I totally agree with what you're saying.
Just to add or emphasise that in essence we are expected to get the virus, or perhaps 70% of us are. you could say the plan has failed if that doesn't happen during this year before winter. This is my view of the plan. There's no point stopping the virus in it's tracks and then it gets out of control in the winter next year as is likely.
Also I've noticed that there's less in the food bank bin. There's certainly no toilet paper in them. People are thinking about themselves more than normal.
|
|
|
|
Post by aidanw on Mar 11, 2020 19:23:49 GMT
So how do you account for the fall off in cases in places like China, Hong Kong and Singapore?
If I'm looking for a bolt hole to flee to in order to avoid getting the virus one of the above 3 looks favourite,
They have done a fantastic job of slowing it down with draconian action. But they haven't stopped it. The rest of the world hasn't really used the time wisely. It will be stopped when 60%+ are infected or immunised.
|
|
star dust
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,998
Likes: 3,531
|
Post by star dust on Mar 11, 2020 19:25:06 GMT
That table really illustrates something odd about the Italian stats - less than twice as many cases as S Korea (12,462 vs 7,755) but almost 14 times the deaths (827 vs 60), and S Korea has had cases longer (SK: 20 Jan, Italy 31 Jan) Yeah, when the dust settles on all this it will be interesting to understand why Italy was (/seemed to be) such an outlier. Maybe not the full story but they were looking the wrong way - www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/from-confidence-to-quarantine-how-coronavirus-swept-italy
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Mar 11, 2020 19:37:08 GMT
|
|
.
