Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 11, 2020 20:41:54 GMT
Most MPs are not so old as to be in the worst risk group, the house of lords however could be at serious risk.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 11, 2020 20:46:44 GMT
Yeah, when the dust settles on all this it will be interesting to understand why Italy was (/seemed to be) such an outlier. I wonder if Coronavirus was in Italy for some time (weeks?) before they realised it was there, making them very slow to react.
I suspect that is true and then the high number of older people in Italy, particularly since they tend to live with their family meant that older people were hugely at risk and a significant number have died.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 11, 2020 21:13:30 GMT
So how do you account for the fall off in cases in places like China, Hong Kong and Singapore?
If I'm looking for a bolt hole to flee to in order to avoid getting the virus one of the above 3 looks favourite,
They have done a fantastic job of slowing it down with draconian action. But they haven't stopped it. The rest of the world hasn't really used the time wisely. It will be stopped when 60%+ are infected or immunised. The cummulative number of cases over the last few days in these 3 countries is insignificnt (I believe in Wuhan they are dismantling one of the temporary hospitals that was built)
It will be to the eternal shame of the west if it is proven that China handled the outbreak better than we did.
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Post by aidanw on Mar 11, 2020 21:25:40 GMT
They have done a fantastic job of slowing it down with draconian action. But they haven't stopped it. The rest of the world hasn't really used the time wisely. It will be stopped when 60%+ are infected or immunised. The cummulative number of cases over the last few days in these 3 countries is insignificnt (I believe in Wuhan they are dismantling one of the temporary hospitals that was built)
It will be to the eternal shame of the west if it is proven that China handled the outbreak better than we did.
That's what Italy said two weeks ago. Exponential growth means any infections are significant. There is no doubt that China can handle this better though.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Mar 11, 2020 21:37:07 GMT
They have done a fantastic job of slowing it down with draconian action. But they haven't stopped it. The rest of the world hasn't really used the time wisely. It will be stopped when 60%+ are infected or immunised. The cummulative number of cases over the last few days in these 3 countries is insignificnt (I believe in Wuhan they are dismantling one of the temporary hospitals that was built)
It will be to the eternal shame of the west if it is proven that China handled the outbreak better than we did.
Would it be shameful if it was say Switzerland or Japan? Why is it that cold war feelings run and run? In parallel, we also seem to get the occasional view that health systems, technology or other matters are implicitly so much better here than in say China. In my view, the real beef with China is their undemocratic system (based on meritocracy within their single party - a bit like corporate structures in my view) they have some way to go, but they are heading in the right direction. In some other areas (manufacturing, construction) they are far more advanced than we are.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 11, 2020 21:38:20 GMT
They have done a fantastic job of slowing it down with draconian action. But they haven't stopped it. The rest of the world hasn't really used the time wisely. It will be stopped when 60%+ are infected or immunised. The cummulative number of cases over the last few days in these 3 countries is insignificnt (I believe in Wuhan they are dismantling one of the temporary hospitals that was built)
It will be to the eternal shame of the west if it is proven that China handled the outbreak better than we did.
I see China as a very top down society. Almost the opposite of the West. i don't think we could handle this epidemic as they have.
I'll never forget when visiting a new town there of 100,000 homes but only with 10,000 people living in it. The state got the maths wrong, and it may never be fully used.
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corto
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one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Mar 11, 2020 22:01:32 GMT
Yeah, when the dust settles on all this it will be interesting to understand why Italy was (/seemed to be) such an outlier. I wonder if Coronavirus was in Italy for some time (weeks?) before they realised it was there, making them very slow to react.
There was a story in the news, last week, I think, saying that the GPs and hospitals in Northern Italy initially turned 'patient 1' away because he did not have had contact with an infected person. He did infect a number of people including health care personnel during hos several visits to the docs. Somebody posted a figure from an article in the Financial Times today. If you align the end-points of the graphs per country on a single day you probably get a good idea when the virus arrived in the respective country ( about 6 days earlier, actually, given that that is the average symptom free time after infection). It looks like it kicked off in Italy just 4 or 5 days after South Korea. At that time everybody was still looking over to Asia.
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corto
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Post by corto on Mar 11, 2020 22:05:36 GMT
The journal Nature made their SARS.. and CoVid.. publications freely available. There is also a wider News feed to sign up for. Much is very specific research, but some items are quite useful. www.nature.com/ |
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 11, 2020 22:42:15 GMT
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 12, 2020 1:06:33 GMT
Just to add or emphasise that in essence we are expected to get the virus, or perhaps 70% of us are. you could say the plan has failed if that doesn't happen during this year before winter. This is my view of the plan. There's no point stopping the virus in it's tracks and then it gets out of control in the winter next year as is likely. So how do you account for the fall off in cases in places like China, Hong Kong and Singapore? If I'm looking for a bolt hole to flee to in order to avoid getting the virus one of the above 3 looks favourite,
They have done a fantastic job of slowing it down with draconian action. But they haven't stopped it. The rest of the world hasn't really used the time wisely. It will be stopped when 60%+ are infected or immunised. Agreed. Which in essense means that the best strategy now is not the Chinese or Italian draconian lockdowns which are needed when healthcare provision is completely swamped, but measures that create just enough of a slow down in cases to ensure healthcare provision can just about cope to push 'herd immunity' through the population as quickly as possible. (Which is what I think BJ was hinting at in an media interview a few days ago). Which begins to make sense of the lack of measures at sports events / cinemas / theatres etc as yet. The consequences here are grim for a distinct percentage of the elderly and those with major health issues .... which again explains why these people will likely soon be told to stay at home. And a sizable chunk of everyone else will be ill to a greater or lesser extent. The issue for China / HK / Singapore / Macau and even South Korea is that by savagely containing the spread (in relation to their total population) they are in danger of having regular waves of fresh outbreaks. Even if warmer weather does slow the spread of the virus, I suspect that its high contagiousness means it will only have a minor impact in the overall spread as opposed to flu which more or less ceases as the weather warms up.
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 12, 2020 1:21:16 GMT
US banning all travel from Europe with exception of UK.
Markets (far east + futures of the rest) reacting badly to live TV address by Trump.
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Post by gravitykillz on Mar 12, 2020 3:04:42 GMT
Tom Hanks has got corona as well. Markets are in going to take a tumble in morning!
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 12, 2020 8:54:32 GMT
Chinese exports have revolutionised the global economy but going forward something has to be done about the export of viruses. China has to address the issue of these medieval 'wet' markets where everything with a heartbeat is slaughtered & eaten. Hygiene, contamination & contagion are serious risks to global health.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 12, 2020 11:23:56 GMT
Chinese exports have revolutionised the global economy but going forward something has to be done about the export or viruses. China has to address the issue of these medieval 'wet' markets where everything with a heartbeat is slaughtered & eaten. Hygiene, contamination & contagion are serious risks to global health. Funny, I was just about to post along similar lines. With these nasty diseases regularly emanating from this one country, and once this outbreak is over, I wonder if the world at large will finally wake up? How many countries will ban tourists from that country until it can improve its health practices?
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copacetic
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Post by copacetic on Mar 12, 2020 11:32:20 GMT
Tom Hanks has got corona as well. Markets are in going to take a tumble in morning!
14 days in isolation ... someone should send him a football to keep him company.
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