agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 13, 2020 20:58:01 GMT
There's a couple of things I am struggling to understand with the current plan:
- There have been 2 previous H1N1 pandemics, which both died out and didn't return. Why do the experts think the current virus is going to return year after year?
- We don't have imunity to flu like viruses. Why do the experts think that if 60% of people become infected it will produce some form of national imunity.
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Post by gravitykillz on Mar 13, 2020 21:09:40 GMT
There's a couple of things I am struggling to understand with the current plan:
- There have been 2 previous H1N1 pandemics, which both died out and didn't return. Why do the experts think the current virus is going to return year after year?
- We don't have imunity to flu like viruses. Why do the experts think that if 60% of people become infected it will produce some form of national imunity.
It is a dumb argument I agree. I think in their desperation they are saying things which donr make sense. If 60% of the population get infected at (uk population 60 million) at least a million will die on average?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Mar 13, 2020 21:27:47 GMT
www.ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/age-uk/documents/reports-and-publications/later_life_uk_factsheet.pdfAccroding to Age UK, there are 11,9 Millions people aged over 65+, I wonder what advice the UK government would give for this group before getting the herd immunity. I am not too sure how Social distancing work for this group. Some of them can't even place an order online. Using the data from Worldometers, say 60% of the 12 million aged 65 got infected, my estimates of the death toll of the people aged 65+ by Covid-19 is over 650k, is the number the government expecting every year? Checking the ONS, it seems about right? 600k people died in the UK in 2018. Is this the reason just tell the public let life carry on as normal without any reassurance?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 13, 2020 21:29:47 GMT
There's a couple of things I am struggling to understand with the current plan:
- There have been 2 previous H1N1 pandemics, which both died out and didn't return. Why do the experts think the current virus is going to return year after year?
- We don't have imunity to flu like viruses. Why do the experts think that if 60% of people become infected it will produce some form of national imunity.
1. Because the previous H1N1 pandemics were caused by different viruses which exhibited different characteristics. Characteristics which led them to "die out". Neither of them became endemic, which COVID-19 looks likely (as in a slam dunk) to become. So there will always, globally, be a residual population carrying COVID-19, and they will infect others. Much as with your common or garden flu. 2. Immunity, across a population, isn't a binary thing. Some will be more susceptible, others will be less so. As such "we" do have (some) immunity to flu like viruses. COVID-19 will, likely, infect pretty much everybody over time. It will kill a few, it will make a few more very sick, it will make a lot more a little sick, and the rest will hardly notice. The faster we can get to "60% of the population having been infected but basically not suffering at all", the faster we can concentrate the resources available to us on those who end up very sick, which is where we want to focus our effort. Triage is brutal, but it works. Don't touch the people who will die. Don't touch the people who will live. Focus on the people who will benefit from some kind of intervention.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 13, 2020 21:41:53 GMT
There's a couple of things I am struggling to understand with the current plan:
- There have been 2 previous H1N1 pandemics, which both died out and didn't return. Why do the experts think the current virus is going to return year after year?
- We don't have imunity to flu like viruses. Why do the experts think that if 60% of people become infected it will produce some form of national imunity.
It is a dumb argument I agree. I think in their desperation they are saying things which donr make sense. If 60% of the population get infected at (uk population 60 million) at least a million will die on average?I thought the plan was that people in high risk groups self isolate, thereby avoiding the virus. The 60% will be predominantly 'fit' people where the death rate will be far lower than the current quoted average.
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Post by aidanw on Mar 13, 2020 21:42:21 GMT
There's a couple of things I am struggling to understand with the current plan:
- There have been 2 previous H1N1 pandemics, which both died out and didn't return. Why do the experts think the current virus is going to return year after year?
- We don't have imunity to flu like viruses. Why do the experts think that if 60% of people become infected it will produce some form of national imunity.
It is a dumb argument I agree. I think in their desperation they are saying things which donr make sense. If 60% of the population get infected at (uk population 60 million) at least a million will die on average? Because it isn't flu. Why do you think the stock market is down 30%?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 13, 2020 21:45:38 GMT
There's a couple of things I am struggling to understand with the current plan:
- There have been 2 previous H1N1 pandemics, which both died out and didn't return. Why do the experts think the current virus is going to return year after year?
- We don't have imunity to flu like viruses. Why do the experts think that if 60% of people become infected it will produce some form of national imunity.
1. Because the previous H1N1 pandemics were caused by different viruses which exhibited different characteristics. Characteristics which led them to "die out". Neither of them became endemic, which COVID-19 looks likely (as in a slam dunk) to become. So there will always, globally, be a residual population carrying COVID-19, and they will infect others. Much as with your common or garden flu. 2. Immunity, across a population, isn't a binary thing. Some will be more susceptible, others will be less so. As such "we" do have (some) immunity to flu like viruses. COVID-19 will, likely, infect pretty much everybody over time. It will kill a few, it will make a few more very sick, it will make a lot more a little sick, and the rest will hardly notice. The faster we can get to "60% of the population having been infected but basically not suffering at all", the faster we can concentrate the resources available to us on those who end up very sick, which is where we want to focus our effort. Triage is brutal, but it works. Don't touch the people who will die. Don't touch the people who will live. Focus on the people who will benefit from some kind of intervention. Given that the 'experts' can't even say how long the virus will live on my front door knob, I would be amazed if any of them was able state with any certainty that this variant of H1N1 is here to stay
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 13, 2020 22:02:24 GMT
A note re "herd immunity" - at some point each and every one of us will die.
Essentially, for every 100* twenty year olds who are infected with COVID-19 and survive thereby accruing some level of immunity, an eighty year old will catch it and die (the rest will fall over and break a hip and die, or have a heart attack and die, or a stroke, or simply pass away peacefully in their sleep etc). Over time the population of "twenty year olds", who've accrued some level of immunity, will age and replace the population of "eighty year olds" who had no immunity, and who have, for want of a better expression, succumbed to old age.
Therefore, over time, the immunity of the herd increases.
* Numbers pulled out of my proverbial.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 13, 2020 22:42:13 GMT
Total overreaction.People know when its time to die. We have far too many old people suffering from age related illness. NHS is merciless when it comes to extending life and not helping alleviate end of life suffering. Here's hoping that this time they will come to terms with merciful release and stop p#ssing around. Both my parents suffered for WEEKS while professionals sat on their hands. You wouldnt put a dog through it.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 13, 2020 23:04:36 GMT
Confused... Advice from the chief scientific advisor: Achieve herd community to protect the vulnerable, youtu.be/2XRc389TvG8and yet 1% of the 60% population got infected might not make it??? I think the current logic is something like this. This Coronavirus is here and it’s staying. It can’t be eradicated like, say, smallpox. Most people are going to get it: this year, next year or in subsequent years. You can’t lockdown everyone forever. In an ideal world you’d want the 60% who will get it mildly to get on with catching it whilst retaining the focus on keeping the most vulnerable isolated as much as possible while the sense of urgency is high and effective. As more mild cases “self-life-virus-vaccinate” and recover, the vector for transmitting it to vulnerable elderly groups diminishes and everyone can relax a little about letting the vulnerable out and about. It’s not going to be possible to get 60% of mild cases infected and recovered in one season, but it’s still massively better to start on that path towards 60% been-there-had-it-survived-it-easily than try to hold the infection rate near a zero percent floor forever. A controlled, not too slow transmission through the mild cohort is considered the optimum strategy. Logical and makes sense, but only as good as the axiomatic premises that the model is based on. I’d rather put my faith in the CMO and CSO and their teams than some rent-a-quotes giving a contrary view to journos. ^[My bold] Having heard them both speak knowledgeably alongside the Prime Minister yesterday, I was very impressed. It was refreshing to hear the explanations from qualified scientists rather than politicians and journalists for a change. Prof. Chris Whitty comes across particularly well, clearly knows his stuff and is eager to impart it. I'm happy to follow whatever he advises.
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corto
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Post by corto on Mar 13, 2020 23:06:56 GMT
Total overreaction.People know when its time to die. We have far too many old people suffering from age related illness. NHS is merciless when it comes to extending life and not helping alleviate end of life suffering. Here's hoping that this time they will come to terms with merciful release and stop p#ssing around. Both my parents suffered for WEEKS while professionals sat on their hands. You wouldnt put a dog through it. Professionals have to help by law. You could have used a pillow.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 13, 2020 23:22:00 GMT
More breaking news:
Four of my spouse's relatives have - apparently - had positive test results.
Good job we only see them rarely.
Umm.
Whilst we obviously hope your rellies shrug it off and pull through, this leads to a difficult dilemma many of us oldies will shortly be facing... We moved house to be closer to our daughter and husband, but we will soon need to have the uncomfortable discussion involving asking them not to visit, for fear of them infecting us. Never thought I'd live to see that heartbreaking day. Thanks China.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 13, 2020 23:42:01 GMT
I think the current logic is something like this. This Coronavirus is here and it’s staying. It can’t be eradicated like, say, smallpox. Most people are going to get it: this year, next year or in subsequent years. You can’t lockdown everyone forever. In an ideal world you’d want the 60% who will get it mildly to get on with catching it whilst retaining the focus on keeping the most vulnerable isolated as much as possible while the sense of urgency is high and effective. As more mild cases “self-life-virus-vaccinate” and recover, the vector for transmitting it to vulnerable elderly groups diminishes and everyone can relax a little about letting the vulnerable out and about. It’s not going to be possible to get 60% of mild cases infected and recovered in one season, but it’s still massively better to start on that path towards 60% been-there-had-it-survived-it-easily than try to hold the infection rate near a zero percent floor forever. A controlled, not too slow transmission through the mild cohort is considered the optimum strategy. Logical and makes sense, but only as good as the axiomatic premises that the model is based on. I’d rather put my faith in the CMO and CSO and their teams than some rent-a-quotes giving a contrary view to journos. ^[My bold] Having heard them both speak knowledgeably alongside the Prime Minister yesterday, I was very impressed. It was refreshing to hear the explanations from qualified scientists rather than politicians and journalists for a change. Prof. Chris Whitty comes across particularly well, clearly knows his stuff and is eager to impart it. I'm happy to follow whatever he advises. Quite. And if I am going to get it - which I probably am, and indeed I may already have it - I want to have it now, while the health service is not overwhelmed and can still help me if I am one of the unlucky few per cent (probably less given my age and health) who need intensive care.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 13, 2020 23:45:00 GMT
It is a dumb argument I agree. I think in their desperation they are saying things which donr make sense. If 60% of the population get infected at (uk population 60 million) at least a million will die on average?I thought the plan was that people in high risk groups self isolate, thereby avoiding the virus. The 60% will be predominantly 'fit' people where the death rate will be far lower than the current quoted average. Exactly
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reinvestor
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Post by reinvestor on Mar 14, 2020 0:13:39 GMT
My 79 year old dad and 73 year old mum have been put in enforced isolation by me and my sister.
They have been given enough food to last them the next two weeks. Enough booze to last them three months and are allowed to walk across the fields at the back of their house as much as they want but have been told they must not talk to dog walkers and other randoms.
I called my mum at 5.30pm yesterday. We were on the phone for all of five minutes. She told me the same thing three times and had enjoyed watching Cheltenham and told me that my dad was asleep on the lounge floor having celebrated a £80 winner.
It would seem that today has been mostly the same and I’m sure tomorrow might also be going the same way.
They love each other and their home so I’m sure isolation will be fine for them.
They may need more booze dropping off before the food runs out!
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