michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 28, 2021 16:07:35 GMT
Well as of today, I've decided to join the group of waverers. I will not be voting Tory at the next election if Johnson is their leader. I gave him huge credit for "getting the [brexit] job done" but there has been so much evidence of incompetence since then that the scales have tipped. from posts of a few months ago, I thought you had reached that point a while back. Welcome to the pack, even if it is only one of two. the combination of a) self serving interest (personal) b) total incompetence c) self serving interest for favoured acolytes and hangers on d) borderline corruption - was known from combination of past evidence and general character for the last x years. I made the decision to not vote conservative again - at least for the foreseeable - back in the leadership election, IF the Tory party blue rinse membership saw fit to make him party leader. They did, and I won't. Possibly/probably but I'm definitely there now. For the avoidance of doubt I agree with your a,b,c and d ! I would have assumed in your case there was a more import e/
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 28, 2021 17:21:26 GMT
Omicron: anyone else begin to get the feeling we are but the mere unwitting counters in a part of a divine game of snakes and ladders being played out between Zeus and Ares ? One of those b******s just rolled a 4 when they (and we) needed a 5. Lets be positive for a moment. As I understand it there is just slightly more chance of this being less pathogenic than Delta. So is one possible scenario that its actually about on par with the common cold symptoms-wise but its so transmissible it takes over the world thus requiring no more vaccines, no more lockdowns etc ? The concern is over the extent of the protein spike mutations, and therefore the real potential to demonstrate vaccine escape. It may in practise not undermine current vaccines by much, but presumably even if that is the case, it would put us significantly close to a further mutation which does. The comments of anecdotal evidence of cases of reinfection are also a little concerning. Yes of course it is possible that the disease outcomes for this are better, but no real reason to think either way right now (and I have seen todays reporting of the SA doctor suggesting less severe, but even they seemed to pretty much undermine any certainty on that at this stage).
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2021 17:28:54 GMT
A logical evolution for a virus, is one that is easily caught and does little damage to humans just allows the virus to propogate.
Ones that kill their hosts quickly seem like evolutionary dead-ends
Which is why the common cold is so great
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 28, 2021 17:35:57 GMT
Lets be positive for a moment. As I understand it there is just slightly more chance of this being less pathogenic than Delta. So is one possible scenario that its actually about on par with the common cold symptoms-wise but its so transmissible it takes over the world thus requiring no more vaccines, no more lockdowns etc ? The concern is over the extent of the protein spike mutations, and therefore the real potential to demonstrate vaccine escape. It may in practise not undermine current vaccines by much, but presumably even if that is the case, it would put us significantly close to a further mutation which does. The comments of anecdotal evidence of cases of reinfection are also a little concerning. Yes of course it is possible that the disease outcomes for this are better, but no real reason to think either way right now (and I have seen todays reporting of the SA doctor suggesting less severe, but even they seemed to pretty much undermine any certainty on that at this stage). My understanding is that there is a general agreement amongst the experts that the virus will gradually over time become less pathogenic so presumably its slightly more likely it will be less harmful. As for the spike protein stuff I haven't (and I assume you neither) has a scuby as to what any of this means. What I do know is that if there is potential to demonstrate increased vaccine escape (presumably that would be virtually total since its pretty high right now) why is the advice to get even more vaccine and sooner ?
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 28, 2021 17:37:32 GMT
A logical evolution for a virus, is one that is easily caught and does little damage to humans just allows the virus to propogate.
Ones that kill their hosts quickly seem like evolutionary dead-ends
Which is why the common cold is so great
there is a bit of sense that C19 falls a bit between the stalls already though. Fatality rates are not so high as to deprive it of hosts while still being highly transmissable. Also unlike flu, certainly the original and I think current strains are at their most infectious - or at least are still highly infectious - while the host is still exhibiting few or no major symptoms. So that would imply there is no great evolutionary pressure favouring a significantly less virulent strain to emerge and dominate ? (just my thoughts) [which does not mean it won't do so]
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 28, 2021 17:54:58 GMT
The concern is over the extent of the protein spike mutations, and therefore the real potential to demonstrate vaccine escape. It may in practise not undermine current vaccines by much, but presumably even if that is the case, it would put us significantly close to a further mutation which does. The comments of anecdotal evidence of cases of reinfection are also a little concerning. Yes of course it is possible that the disease outcomes for this are better, but no real reason to think either way right now (and I have seen todays reporting of the SA doctor suggesting less severe, but even they seemed to pretty much undermine any certainty on that at this stage). My understanding is that there is a general agreement amongst the experts that the virus will gradually over time become less pathogenic so presumably its slightly more likely it will be less harmful. As for the spike protein stuff I haven't (and I assume you neither) has a scuby as to what any of this means. What I do know is that if there is potential to demonstrate increased vaccine escape (presumably that would be virtually total since its pretty high right now) why is the advice to get even more vaccine and sooner ? Re. boosters: because at the moment no-one is suggesting that it is likely to completely 'escape', (i.e. the effects of vaccination are less effective not utterly ineffective). So exactly the same rationale applies to boosters etc.: the higher the level of anti bodies in your system the greater chance you have of fighting it off with less serious health outcomes. Re. spike protein: it is the spike protein of the virus that binds to cells, enabling the the virus to penetrate cells (specifically the virus's RNA), and hence to replicate within the host. It is the spike protein that vaccines target, by priming your immune system to produce anti bodies which are specific to and can bind onto the spike protein. So the greater the mutation there compared with the virus you original produced a vaccine for, the greater the likeliehood that the antibodies produced are not effective or far less effective against that particular form of the virus.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Nov 28, 2021 20:42:01 GMT
My understanding is that there is a general agreement amongst the experts that the virus will gradually over time become less pathogenic so presumably its slightly more likely it will be less harmful. As for the spike protein stuff I haven't (and I assume you neither) has a scuby as to what any of this means. What I do know is that if there is potential to demonstrate increased vaccine escape (presumably that would be virtually total since its pretty high right now) why is the advice to get even more vaccine and sooner ? Re. boosters: because at the moment no-one is suggesting that it is likely to completely 'escape', (i.e. the effects of vaccination are less effective not utterly ineffective). So exactly the same rationale applies to boosters etc.: the higher the level of anti bodies in your system the greater chance you have of fighting it off with less serious health outcomes. Re. spike protein: it is the spike protein of the virus that binds to cells, enabling the the virus to penetrate cells (specifically the virus's RNA), and hence to replicate within the host. It is the spike protein that vaccines target, by priming your immune system to produce anti bodies which are specific to and can bind onto the spike protein. So the greater the mutation there compared with the virus you original produced a vaccine for, the greater the likeliehood that the antibodies produced are not effective or far less effective against that particular form of the virus. I think the main thing is there are a lot of changes in this variant and nobody really knows yet what that might mean. It may be a pussy cat or it might be really nasty. Hopefully the former and it seems current vaccines may still be fairly effective, but get your booster..
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 28, 2021 21:27:01 GMT
My understanding is that there is a general agreement amongst the experts that the virus will gradually over time become less pathogenic so presumably its slightly more likely it will be less harmful. As for the spike protein stuff I haven't (and I assume you neither) has a scuby as to what any of this means. What I do know is that if there is potential to demonstrate increased vaccine escape (presumably that would be virtually total since its pretty high right now) why is the advice to get even more vaccine and sooner ? Re. boosters: because at the moment no-one is suggesting that it is likely to completely 'escape', (i.e. the effects of vaccination are less effective not utterly ineffective). So exactly the same rationale applies to boosters etc.: the higher the level of anti bodies in your system the greater chance you have of fighting it off with less serious health outcomes. Re. spike protein: it is the spike protein of the virus that binds to cells, enabling the the virus to penetrate cells (specifically the virus's RNA), and hence to replicate within the host. It is the spike protein that vaccines target, by priming your immune system to produce anti bodies which are specific to and can bind onto the spike protein. So the greater the mutation there compared with the virus you original produced a vaccine for, the greater the likeliehood that the antibodies produced are not effective or far less effective against that particular form of the virus.Yes, that is about as much as we all have got from reading about it in the press. As a "mathematician" I realise that without exception, every single theorem, proof or other fragment of maths involving "scary" looking symbols can be reduced and explained ultimately as very simple to understand axioms. A bit like a car can be explained in terms of nuts and bolts. Regarding "spike protein" what does it actually mean? Can virus, anti-bodies, cells, spike protein, RNA or any of these things be viewed in a microscope or via any other means? How is the text in bold shown to be true? I'm not saying you are wrong in fact you are probably right but in the same way you could teach a bright 10 year old some very advanced post-doctoral maths if you wanted to (not the breadth but highly targeted areas) why can't you teach a reasonably intelligent adult such as ourselves the very basics of this stuff (biochemistry is the field?). And yet, all we get in the press are pretty photos of scary looking monsters without explanation and how antibodies might be "looking" for a certain pattern of spike protein.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 28, 2021 22:11:26 GMT
Re. boosters: because at the moment no-one is suggesting that it is likely to completely 'escape', (i.e. the effects of vaccination are less effective not utterly ineffective). So exactly the same rationale applies to boosters etc.: the higher the level of anti bodies in your system the greater chance you have of fighting it off with less serious health outcomes. Re. spike protein: it is the spike protein of the virus that binds to cells, enabling the the virus to penetrate cells (specifically the virus's RNA), and hence to replicate within the host. It is the spike protein that vaccines target, by priming your immune system to produce anti bodies which are specific to and can bind onto the spike protein. So the greater the mutation there compared with the virus you original produced a vaccine for, the greater the likeliehood that the antibodies produced are not effective or far less effective against that particular form of the virus.Yes, that is about as much as we all have got from reading about it in the press. As a "mathematician" I realise that without exception, every single theorem, proof or other fragment of maths involving "scary" looking symbols can be reduced and explained ultimately as very simple to understand axioms. A bit like a car can be explained in terms of nuts and bolts. Regarding "spike protein" what does it actually mean? Can virus, anti-bodies, cells, spike protein, RNA or any of these things be viewed in a microscope or via any other means? How is the text in bold shown to be true? I'm not saying you are wrong in fact you are probably right but in the same way you could teach a bright 10 year old some very advanced post-doctoral maths if you wanted to (not the breadth but highly targeted areas) why can't you teach a reasonably intelligent adult such as ourselves the very basics of this stuff (biochemistry is the field?). And yet, all we get in the press are pretty photos of scary looking monsters without explanation and how antibodies might be "looking" for a certain pattern of spike protein. I am a bit staggered by this, and suspect this is not a serious post Really Just taking even one of those points, electron microsopy allows us to see down to the atomic level. And in the case of Sars-Cov-2, given the incentive to do so, we have built a full picture of the surface at the atomic level. [other techniques allow us to go further but that is not relevant to this discussion'. Oh, and cells, being at an altogether much larger scale, are visible under a microscope. So much so that they were first observed in 1665. Not that at that time Robert Hooke - he also of Hooke's Law, and very much the sort of 'polymath' that those times seemed to support - understood what he was then looking at. I really struggle to think that you are serious in asking that question. Sorry but really failing to understand what point you are making. Maybe I have missed your point.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 28, 2021 22:41:08 GMT
Absolutely 100% serious. My biology studies ceased at 14 and chemistry at 16. Maybe that explains why I'm such a thickie in this area.
I presume you're not talking about optical microscopes where there is a direct connection between sample/eye/brain but nevertheless it is interesting for me to learn and/or be reminded after so many years that these things can be "seen".
To me, viewing this stuff (cells etc), would seem to be the basis then of all the science that is being discussed. After all, without "viewing" the items listed in your last post at cell level it would seem very hard to make any progress scientifically. To know what is happening and to know whether an intervention is helping or not.
It is fascinating to me that the media and indeed scientists when addressing laymen make such basic assumptions such as we all know the kind of stuff you brought up in your last post. If a "highly educated" thickie like me wasn't aware of the facts you mentioned I wonder what other folk think about it all?
In summary, I think we all would benefit from a science lesson refresher.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Nov 28, 2021 23:15:30 GMT
If they come from the Welsh Valleys or elsewhere in similarly ex industrial areas they have been so indoctrinated since birth to vote Labour, that they wouldn't think to vote any other way. Where have you been since the 2019 election? Living in Welsh Valleys, here in BG the Labour candidate increased his percentage of votes cast by 25%
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Nov 28, 2021 23:25:15 GMT
Not sure if this is right place but has anyone heard of issues with the moderna booster whereby approx 6 hours after taking it the blood pressure drops so low that one falls in and out of consciousness. This happened recently for friends sister in law and apparently they were anecdotally told this has a happened a few times with this vaccine. I have booked my booster for Dec 3rd - I had covid recently and had to wait 28 days before having the booster. In my case after the Positive test's i was offered an oximeter as part of a local trial and I felt ok for a while but after about a 7 days in with covid i started to deteriorate and my oximeter levels started to drop below values and I was shipped off to hospital to get tests and xray etc and was then put on oxygen for about 5 hours or so. I was told my lung xray showed signs of covid damage. Thankfully i was discharged and advised to take it easy - to be honest i could barely get out of bed to go to bathroom for about a week or so - and now almost 15 days or more later I am still coughing but it is subsiding. OK So my experience Booster Given Thursday afternoon Friday when i woke up the area around Injection site very painful, neck stiff and sore. elbows and knees very painful, making going up or down stairs to toilet an arduous task, headache all day , Several times during the day I nearly lost my balance. No interest in Food, not even a crispy bacon butty. My eyes are sore like hay fever. Generally I feel rough like I have flu. Fell asleep whilst reading in bed and woke up about 2am rather cold Today the knees and elbows not as bad but still painful and stiff neck etc still but less severe. Interestingly I put it in the Zoe App and its told me this afternoon to get a PCR test Knees and Elbows still painful ( Ibuprofen helping for me ) injection site still sore as are my eyes Had a very nice lunch out first time I'd eaten anything substantial for > 2 days, but 1 meal today is still low
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2021 10:05:38 GMT
What I do find strange is that given we have this wonder of the internet and we are undergoing a life changing attack from this virus that there can be people who so lack interest to find out about basic virology or it seems electron microscopes
You may find it interesting to watch my friend Marty talk through what a dead Covid virus looks like
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Nov 29, 2021 10:35:41 GMT
So Masks back in England for Public transport and Shops, but not Cinemas and theatres. meanwhile in Wales www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/cinema--co-refuses-welsh-22295306Apparently the WG forgot to put in any penalty for failure to comply with the rules on covid passes So the Local council tried to use Public health act, which the district judge effectively said was wrong ( the defendant didn't turn up either ) now we have the council changing the locks on a private building ( which at the very least is trespass or vandalism (maybe even criminal damage )) the business owner has had the locks changed again the WG issued a direction to close, but it was unsigned so technically invalid, but again there is still no penalty for failure to comply over the weekend we had the unedifying sight of 30-40 Police officers surrounding the building to keep "patrons" away, I compare that to the attitude of the Police to the XR protests in Cardiff and elsewhere in Wales where they facilitated the breaking of the law in blocking roads etc. to me this whole thing now in Wales feels more like how far can we push the public and business rather than what is best for the public. I really believe that we should have one set of rules for the UK ( different stricter rules in Wales have not lead to lower case rates than England , rather the opposite ) , I for one can say I will not abide by any more lockdowns, I've lost the best part of 2 years of my life to this now. I need to get on with the remaining years of my life.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 29, 2021 10:40:44 GMT
What I do find strange is that given we have this wonder of the internet and we are undergoing a life changing attack from this virus that there can be people who so lack interest to find out about basic virology or it seems electron microscopes You may find it interesting to watch my friend Marty talk through what a dead Covid virus looks like Yes, I wondered that too. But I then also wondered whether this wasn't an example of another part of the problem too. Poorly informed people doing their own research and in some cases, and for various reasons, heading off down conspiratorial (etc) rabbit holes. Anyway michaelc fair play for putting your hand up and saying "I don't understand". Here are some good primers:- Origins of lifeEvolutionVirusesArchaeaCell biologyBacteriaDNA RNA Virology ImmunologyCRISPRThere's quite a lot to consume there, but if you do work your way though it'll give you a good foundation from which to build on. I've tried to order the above list sensibly but at one level it's a bit like quantum mechanics. We certainly don't know or understand everything, but what we do know supports our theories at least in as much as we can build stuff that works because of it. The reason I went back to the "origins of life" etc is because viruses are perhaps the earliest form of complex life (there's an interesting discussion to be had about whether or not they're actually alive). So you kind of have to start at the beginning .
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