daveb
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Post by daveb on Dec 8, 2021 19:50:02 GMT
Downing Street Christmas Party: What We Know NowApart from the (now ex) Adviser Alegra's comment about no party, but cheese and wine at a 'business meeting'; and BJs "whatever happened all rules were strictly adhered to" (even if parties were themselves not allowed) in the article above I spotted the following gem: [Dominic Raab] described the reports as “unsubstantiated”. He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show: “The PM’s very clear no rules were broken. I wasn’t there by the way.” My bolding. Could be Straight out of a "Yes Mninister" script Now, where is that clip of the non-drinking drinks party with the Saudis again ? I believe she has offered her resignation, but not currently accepted.
The sight of her blubbing outside her house while saying how sorry she is realy does make you cringe. However, given we are about to be overun by Omicron I wonder whether a party 12 months ago is getting more column inches than it deserves.
Not if it puts people off listening to public health advice now it's not.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 8, 2021 19:59:56 GMT
I'm getting fed up with sources in the media who keep treating us like idiots by not taking into account what the proportion of the population is vaccinated. The kind of stats where they say 95% of cases at this hospital were from unvaccinated people.... Surely all we need is a very simple Venn diagram splitting the population into two non-intersecting cohorts (to use a fashionable term): Those vaccinated and those not. Then in each bubble draw another sub-bubble showing what percentage of that cohort went to hospital (or died depending on what you are showing. I would like to see an aniimation of that changing over time particularly if you made the bubble sizes proportionate to number of people they represent. Umm, that's exactly what those graphs show. Deaths per 100k people in each category. Let's take a still from just after the peak... So... From 100k unvacc'd, 16.62 died. From 100k J&J vacc'd, 2.17 died. From 100k Pfizer vacc'd, 1.39 died. From 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died. From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died. So death rate amongst J&J vacc'd people is ~3x Moderna vacc'd, but death rate amongst unvacc is ~8x J&J vacc'd. Death rate amongst unvacc'd is ~15x pop'n as a whole. At least, that's how I'm reading it... Interesting how easy it is to mistakenly place different interpretations. At first, I don't mind admitting that I struggled with "From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died", because it appears that from 100k of the whole population (the whole population being the vacc'd plus the unvacc'd), a total of 22.12 died. My initial reading was, for every 100k people, 22.12 died with/from Covid. The breakdown of those 22.12 was 16.62 were unvacc'd, while 2.17 others had a J&J, 1.39 had a Pfizer, 0.79 a Moderna and 1.15 were fully vacc'd. The snapshot appears to show 5.5 vaccinated people died to every 16.62 unvaccinated. In which case we couldn't say the unvacc'd death rate is ~15x the population as a whole. However, I think your interpretation is probably the correct one. It would begin to make more sense once we consider the vast majority have been vaccinated. Either way, it's very clear that the vaccinated are faring much better. But then the cruncher.... 1.15 per 100,000 seems far too low. Worldometers data shows 243 deaths in every 100,000 people for the US, and at no time does that video clip come anywhere close to that. Too busy right now to give this more time, but I'm probably just having a senior moment. Anyone have a better handle?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 8, 2021 20:25:09 GMT
But then the cruncher.... 1.15 per 100,000 seems far too low. Worldometers data shows 243 deaths in every 100,000 people for the US, and at no time does that video clip come anywhere close to that. Too busy right now to give this more time, but I'm probably just having a senior moment. Anyone have a better handle? I don't think I completely understand this (yet?), and I didn't like the use of the word "Full" either. It's... ambiguous / open to misunderstanding / misinterpretation. But other people questioned the creator about this on that reddit thread (and an associated one), and their reply was "It's the value for all fully vaccinated people (two doses)", and there's then some follow on discussion about whether people are considered fully vaccinated after their second dose, or considered fully vaccinated after some period of time after their second dose. And just to add some more grit to the wheels I think the J&J vaccine is single dose? Well, having just looked at the CDC page for it it says (and I'm paraphrasing) "A primary series of 1 dose followed by a booster at least 2 months later, which can be any of Moderna, Pfizer or J&J". What I am comfortable about is that as long as they used real "official" CDC data, and didn't introduce arbitrary categorisations of their own, it illustrates the value of vaccines. And that's the important point. The above aside, the fact that things like this can be produced, distributed / made available, and be open to scrutiny, is... fantastic. With my apologies to cat memes, it's why we have the internet. EDIT: It's also worth noting that the sub auto-posts this comment at the top of every thread:- "Remember that all visualisations on /r/DataIsBeautiful should be viewed with a healthy dose of scepticism. If you see a potential issue or oversight in the visualisation, please post a constructive comment below. Post approval does not signify that this visualisation has been verified or its sources checked".
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 8, 2021 21:49:12 GMT
Umm, that's exactly what those graphs show. Deaths per 100k people in each category. Let's take a still from just after the peak... So... From 100k unvacc'd, 16.62 died. From 100k J&J vacc'd, 2.17 died. From 100k Pfizer vacc'd, 1.39 died. From 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died. From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died. So death rate amongst J&J vacc'd people is ~3x Moderna vacc'd, but death rate amongst unvacc is ~8x J&J vacc'd. Death rate amongst unvacc'd is ~15x pop'n as a whole. At least, that's how I'm reading it... Interesting how easy it is to mistakenly place different interpretations. At first, I don't mind admitting that I struggled with "From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died", because it appears that from 100k of the whole population (the whole population being the vacc'd plus the unvacc'd), a total of 22.12 died. My initial reading was, for every 100k people, 22.12 died with/from Covid. The breakdown of those 22.12 was 16.62 were unvacc'd, while 2.17 others had a J&J, 1.39 had a Pfizer, 0.79 a Moderna and 1.15 were fully vacc'd. The snapshot appears to show 5.5 vaccinated people died to every 16.62 unvaccinated. In which case we couldn't say the unvacc'd death rate is ~15x the population as a whole. However, I think your interpretation is probably the correct one. It would begin to make more sense once we consider the vast majority have been vaccinated. Either way, it's very clear that the vaccinated are faring much better. But then the cruncher.... 1.15 per 100,000 seems far too low. Worldometers data shows 243 deaths in every 100,000 people for the US, and at no time does that video clip come anywhere close to that. Too busy right now to give this more time, but I'm probably just having a senior moment. Anyone have a better handle? Not wishing to state the obvious and then be seen to be silly, but are not the figures on Worldometer cumulative, and the numbers on the link simply by month snapshots (hence why they can come down not just keep increasing) ? Bearing in mind that at the baseline everyone was unvaccinated then the cumulative effects of those death rates could quite easily come up to the Worldometer numbers. No, I have not done the math (s) Maybe some integration will lead from one to the other ?
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registerme
Member of DD Central
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Post by registerme on Dec 8, 2021 22:01:54 GMT
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 8, 2021 22:06:57 GMT
Interesting how easy it is to mistakenly place different interpretations. At first, I don't mind admitting that I struggled with "From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died", because it appears that from 100k of the whole population (the whole population being the vacc'd plus the unvacc'd), a total of 22.12 died. My initial reading was, for every 100k people, 22.12 died with/from Covid. The breakdown of those 22.12 was 16.62 were unvacc'd, while 2.17 others had a J&J, 1.39 had a Pfizer, 0.79 a Moderna and 1.15 were fully vacc'd. The snapshot appears to show 5.5 vaccinated people died to every 16.62 unvaccinated. In which case we couldn't say the unvacc'd death rate is ~15x the population as a whole. However, I think your interpretation is probably the correct one. It would begin to make more sense once we consider the vast majority have been vaccinated. Either way, it's very clear that the vaccinated are faring much better. But then the cruncher.... 1.15 per 100,000 seems far too low. Worldometers data shows 243 deaths in every 100,000 people for the US, and at no time does that video clip come anywhere close to that. Too busy right now to give this more time, but I'm probably just having a senior moment. Anyone have a better handle? Not wishing to state the obvious and then be seen to be silly, but are not the figures on Worldometer cumulative, and the numbers on the link simply by month snapshots (hence why they can come down not just keep increasing) ? Bearing in mind that at the baseline everyone was unvaccinated then the cumulative effects of those death rates could quite easily come up to the Worldometer numbers. No, I have not done the math (s) Maybe some integration will lead from one to the other ? Thanks, this might be the explanation, but I've just done the same as registerme and read the comments/subreddits - there's far more misunderstanding there about this graph than there is understanding, and even the Reddit OP doesn't seem to have a full grasp or be answering most of the questions raised. So it's probably not worth spending too long on. The upshot seems to be simply "vaccinated beats unvaccinated" and that's about all can be derived with any certainty. Interesting diversion though.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 8, 2021 22:25:19 GMT
Not wishing to state the obvious and then be seen to be silly, but are not the figures on Worldometer cumulative, and the numbers on the link simply by month snapshots (hence why they can come down not just keep increasing) ? Bearing in mind that at the baseline everyone was unvaccinated then the cumulative effects of those death rates could quite easily come up to the Worldometer numbers. No, I have not done the math (s) Maybe some integration will lead from one to the other ? I think you've probably nailed it, except the numbers seem to be daily snapshots rather than by month.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 8, 2021 22:44:04 GMT
The probable source for simpler people like me. Click on Vaccine Product and tick the Deaths box.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Dec 8, 2021 22:58:04 GMT
I see a new lockdown coming, and I see a lot of the public refusing to comply I think you may be right or nearly right in both cases. I will likely comply with whatever I'm asked but I'm becoming increasingly sceptical that periodic, stringent public health measures are the answer. Given Wales has a Mandatory masks in Shops Policy, today I was in a local supermarket, 50% of staff not wearing masks, and over 50% of customers maskless, of that group I'd say 1/3 were wearing "Im exempt from wearing a mask"lanyards with or without a dangly bit. Unfortunately these can cheaply be purchased at the 2 major online marketplaces. Co-op and Iceland have said they won't force staff to enforce it
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 9, 2021 0:05:16 GMT
Downing Street Christmas Party: What We Know NowApart from the (now ex) Adviser Alegra's comment about no party, but cheese and wine at a 'business meeting'; and BJs "whatever happened all rules were strictly adhered to" (even if parties were themselves not allowed) in the article above I spotted the following gem: [Dominic Raab] described the reports as “unsubstantiated”. He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show: “The PM’s very clear no rules were broken. I wasn’t there by the way.” My bolding. Could be Straight out of a "Yes Mninister" script Now, where is that clip of the non-drinking drinks party with the Saudis again ? She's taken the fall, but there were several smirking voices on that video, each trying to outdo the other with their "what should we say" and "are we sure cheese & wine would be an acceptable lie?". Pathetic. Most were probably at the party "business meeting" and I hope the truth catches up with them all. The rest of us, the decent people, obeyed their rules and some couldn't be with their loved ones as they lay dying that week. What a disgrace.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 9, 2021 0:24:55 GMT
I think you may be right or nearly right in both cases. I will likely comply with whatever I'm asked but I'm becoming increasingly sceptical that periodic, stringent public health measures are the answer. Given Wales has a Mandatory masks in Shops Policy, today I was in a local supermarket, 50% of staff not wearing masks, and over 50% of customers maskless, of that group I'd say 1/3 were wearing "Im exempt from wearing a mask"lanyards with or without a dangly bit. Unfortunately these can cheaply be purchased at the 2 major online marketplaces. Co-op and Iceland have said they won't force staff to enforce it 'Deprived' area? Lidl/Aldi? Must be quite regional or supermarket-specific, because I was dragged into in a Wales M&S yesterday, and staff & customer mask adherence was probably 90%. One or two of the coffin-dodgers forgot to put them back on after their cafe visit, bless, but we'll forgive them.
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 9, 2021 7:25:23 GMT
Not wishing to state the obvious and then be seen to be silly, but are not the figures on Worldometer cumulative, and the numbers on the link simply by month snapshots (hence why they can come down not just keep increasing) ? Bearing in mind that at the baseline everyone was unvaccinated then the cumulative effects of those death rates could quite easily come up to the Worldometer numbers. No, I have not done the math (s) Maybe some integration will lead from one to the other ? I think you've probably nailed it, except the numbers seem to be daily snapshots rather than by month.
yes more likely as the x axis were not EOM dates either.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 9, 2021 8:20:40 GMT
Umm, that's exactly what those graphs show. Deaths per 100k people in each category. Let's take a still from just after the peak... So... From 100k unvacc'd, 16.62 died. From 100k J&J vacc'd, 2.17 died. From 100k Pfizer vacc'd, 1.39 died. From 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died. From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died. So death rate amongst J&J vacc'd people is ~3x Moderna vacc'd, but death rate amongst unvacc is ~8x J&J vacc'd. Death rate amongst unvacc'd is ~15x pop'n as a whole. At least, that's how I'm reading it... Interesting how easy it is to mistakenly place different interpretations. At first, I don't mind admitting that I struggled with "From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died", because it appears that from 100k of the whole population (the whole population being the vacc'd plus the unvacc'd), a total of 22.12 died. My initial reading was, for every 100k people, 22.12 died with/from Covid. The breakdown of those 22.12 was 16.62 were unvacc'd, while 2.17 others had a J&J, 1.39 had a Pfizer, 0.79 a Moderna and 1.15 were fully vacc'd. The snapshot appears to show 5.5 vaccinated people died to every 16.62 unvaccinated. In which case we couldn't say the unvacc'd death rate is ~15x the population as a whole. However, I think your interpretation is probably the correct one. It would begin to make more sense once we consider the vast majority have been vaccinated. Either way, it's very clear that the vaccinated are faring much better. But then the cruncher.... 1.15 per 100,000 seems far too low. Worldometers data shows 243 deaths in every 100,000 people for the US, and at no time does that video clip come anywhere close to that. Too busy right now to give this more time, but I'm probably just having a senior moment. Anyone have a better handle? You seem to be confusing snapshot deaths, that many per week, with cumulative, that many to date. And there's no detail on how many 100ks there are of each group. 100k total may be 67% Moderna, 10% unvacc'd - so 100k unvacc'd would require a total of 1m, while 100k Moderna would require a total of 150k. So, no, you can't add up the per-100k figures. You can only compare the 100k figures. So of 100k unvacc'd, 16.6 died that week. Of 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died that week. Of 100k "full", 1.15 died. (You may very well be right that "full" is indeed all vacc'd, rather than the entire pop'n.) 16.6/100k is ~15x 1.15/100k.
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrianc on Dec 9, 2021 8:22:29 GMT
Downing Street Christmas Party: What We Know NowApart from the (now ex) Adviser Alegra's comment about no party, but cheese and wine at a 'business meeting'; and BJs "whatever happened all rules were strictly adhered to" (even if parties were themselves not allowed) in the article above I spotted the following gem: [Dominic Raab] described the reports as “unsubstantiated”. He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show: “The PM’s very clear no rules were broken. I wasn’t there by the way.” My bolding. Could be Straight out of a "Yes Mninister" script Now, where is that clip of the non-drinking drinks party with the Saudis again ? She's taken the fall, but there were several smirking voices on that video, each trying to outdo the other with their "what should we say" and "are we sure cheese & wine would be an acceptable lie?". Pathetic. Most were probably at the party "business meeting" and I hope the truth catches up with them all. The rest of us, the decent people, obeyed their rules and some couldn't be with their loved ones as they lay dying that week. What a disgrace.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Dec 9, 2021 9:31:03 GMT
So of 100k unvacc'd, 16.6 died that week. Of 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died that week. Of 100k "full", 1.15 died. (You may very well be right that "full" is indeed all vacc'd, rather than the entire pop'n.) 16.6/100k is ~15x 1.15/100k. Those death rates look too high. 16.6/100k unvaccinated/week doesn't seem right to me Theres about 130M people in the US unvaccinated now, more at the time we're discussing. That would give 21,000 deaths a week just for unvaccinated, or 3,000/day. I don't think the US death rate has been that high for almost a year
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