adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 9, 2021 9:37:43 GMT
So of 100k unvacc'd, 16.6 died that week. Of 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died that week. Of 100k "full", 1.15 died. (You may very well be right that "full" is indeed all vacc'd, rather than the entire pop'n.) 16.6/100k is ~15x 1.15/100k. Those death rates look too high. 16.6/100k unvaccinated/week doesn't seem right to me Theres about 130M people in the US unvaccinated now, more at the time we're discussing. That would give 21,000 deaths a week just for unvaccinated, or 3,000/day. I don't think the US death rate has been that high for almost a year Rolling month, then? The source is given as the CDC. There are questions in the comments about the timescales the figures are over, unanswered.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 9, 2021 10:39:38 GMT
Interesting how easy it is to mistakenly place different interpretations. At first, I don't mind admitting that I struggled with "From 100k across the whole population, 1.15 died", because it appears that from 100k of the whole population (the whole population being the vacc'd plus the unvacc'd), a total of 22.12 died. My initial reading was, for every 100k people, 22.12 died with/from Covid. The breakdown of those 22.12 was 16.62 were unvacc'd, while 2.17 others had a J&J, 1.39 had a Pfizer, 0.79 a Moderna and 1.15 were fully vacc'd. The snapshot appears to show 5.5 vaccinated people died to every 16.62 unvaccinated. In which case we couldn't say the unvacc'd death rate is ~15x the population as a whole. However, I think your interpretation is probably the correct one. It would begin to make more sense once we consider the vast majority have been vaccinated. Either way, it's very clear that the vaccinated are faring much better. But then the cruncher.... 1.15 per 100,000 seems far too low. Worldometers data shows 243 deaths in every 100,000 people for the US, and at no time does that video clip come anywhere close to that. Too busy right now to give this more time, but I'm probably just having a senior moment. Anyone have a better handle? You seem to be confusing snapshot deaths, that many per week, with cumulative, that many to date. And there's no detail on how many 100ks there are of each group. 100k total may be 67% Moderna, 10% unvacc'd - so 100k unvacc'd would require a total of 1m, while 100k Moderna would require a total of 150k. So, no, you can't add up the per-100k figures. You can only compare the 100k figures. So of 100k unvacc'd, 16.6 died that week. Of 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died that week. Of 100k "full", 1.15 died. (You may very well be right that "full" is indeed all vacc'd, rather than the entire pop'n.) 16.6/100k is ~15x 1.15/100k. That makes more sense than my initial interpretation, except I think you need to substitute "day" in place of "week" above. If you step through the video (as I should have done!), you see the snapshot figures changing daily. It's only the x-axis labelling that's weekly, then fortnightly.
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 9, 2021 11:05:36 GMT
I think you may be right or nearly right in both cases. I will likely comply with whatever I'm asked but I'm becoming increasingly sceptical that periodic, stringent public health measures are the answer. Given Wales has a Mandatory masks in Shops Policy, today I was in a local supermarket, 50% of staff not wearing masks, and over 50% of customers maskless, of that group I'd say 1/3 were wearing "Im exempt from wearing a mask"lanyards with or without a dangly bit. Unfortunately these can cheaply be purchased at the 2 major online marketplaces. Co-op and Iceland have said they won't force staff to enforce it well what a differnce a few days make. I made the observation last week Tues or Wed (that was when Masks in shops in England became compulsory again) that my local tesco's was very poor. Only a few days later, it seemed the message had got home and people caught up, with probably nearer 95% mask wearing start of this week. Lets hope that "the Rave at 10" hasn't had a negative effect on that.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 9, 2021 11:15:22 GMT
So of 100k unvacc'd, 16.6 died that week. Of 100k Moderna vacc'd, 0.79 died that week. Of 100k "full", 1.15 died. (You may very well be right that "full" is indeed all vacc'd, rather than the entire pop'n.) 16.6/100k is ~15x 1.15/100k. Those death rates look too high. 16.6/100k unvaccinated/week doesn't seem right to me Theres about 130M people in the US unvaccinated now, more at the time we're discussing. That would give 21,000 deaths a week just for unvaccinated, or 3,000/day. I don't think the US death rate has been that high for almost a year I think it's even worse.... The 16.6 snapshot figure changes daily, if you step slowly through the video, so there has to be a cumulative component in there somewhere. Perhaps a rolling period as adrianc suggests.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 10, 2021 7:20:02 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 10, 2021 9:46:48 GMT
So... I was due to have my booster jab this morning. But I've had a bit of a sniffle and a mild cough for a couple of days, so I did another lateral flow test this morning. And it was positive  . Two weeks before Christmas. With a broken washing machine, that was due to be replaced next Wednesday. |
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 10, 2021 10:05:53 GMT
A friend of ours tested +ve nearly three weeks ago. 60, very fit, no underlying.
They're lucky, they've got an outbuilding they use for B&B. He got shoved straight out into there.
First day, he was fine.
Then he went down hill - breathing difficulties, sweats, etc. That, fortunately, didn't last long - a day or two.
Since then, he's basically been feeling very, VERY weak and feeble.
He started to feel better a few days ago, so came back into the house. Still no energy, no stamina, worn out in very short order.
The other night, he went VERY rapidly downhill about 4am - heart racing, couldn't breathe, etc.
Ambulance was called. They took an hour to arrive (which isn't bad for round here - the last one I heard about, an 80yo who fell outside, was three...), spent 40 mins examining him, and came to the conclusion he was physically fine - it was "just" a major-league anxiety attack... He's been having vivid, bad dreams since the infection, and the suspicion is that he partially woke, and simply couldn't tell what was reality and what wasn't.
Apparently, this is a known thing arising from the virus...
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 10, 2021 10:16:47 GMT
Well, a friend of mine recently infected with the virus.
The toddler has a runny nose.
The mother of the child who is “fully vaccinated” with AZ has yet received a booster jab, suffers very mild Symptoms. Tested PCR negative first time and then PC positive second time. Had been teated LFT positive twice.
The father who is not vaccinated, suffers typical covid symptoms and coughs a lot. However, he refuses to get a swab.
May be there are many out there spreading the virus and don’t want to get tested at all.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 10, 2021 10:27:28 GMT
So... I was due to have my booster jab this morning. But I've had a bit of a sniffle and a mild cough for a couple of days, so I did another lateral flow test this morning. And it was positive . Two weeks before Christmas. With a broken washing machine, that was due to be replaced next Wednesday. Bummer. That's unfortunate on the day of your booster due, but even more unfortunate because isn't this your second bout of Covid? Rotten luck. Karma being what it is, I would go online and buy a quick lottery ticket  . Stay well.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 10, 2021 10:31:14 GMT
Nope. First time I've actually tested for it and been positive. There was a time late in 2020 when my lodger had it, but I didn't bother with a test seeing as at the time the rules said you had to isolate regardless.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Dec 10, 2021 10:44:09 GMT
Nope. First time I've actually tested for it and been positive. There was a time late in 2020 when my lodger had it, but I didn't bother with a test seeing as at the time the rules said you had to isolate regardless. I think I would have taken a second test (maybe you have) and if that was negative go for best of three. I understand false positives are possible. However being more practical (and assuming you are not contributing to bonus premium bond winnings in a years time). I would imagine with a bit of planning the washing machine replacement could still take place. Informing the deliverers/installers of the situation and making plans for 'safe passage' must be quite common these days. That the 'real thing' will probably be better than a booster is a plus. Good luck anyway and hopefully nothing beyond mild symptoms.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 10, 2021 11:06:50 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 10, 2021 11:56:40 GMT
The father who is not vaccinated, suffers typical covid symptoms and coughs a lot. However, he refuses to get a swab.  .
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 10, 2021 12:53:45 GMT
A friend of ours tested +ve nearly three weeks ago. 60, very fit, no underlying. They're lucky, they've got an outbuilding they use for B&B. He got shoved straight out into there. First day, he was fine. Then he went down hill - breathing difficulties, sweats, etc. That, fortunately, didn't last long - a day or two. Since then, he's basically been feeling very, VERY weak and feeble. He started to feel better a few days ago, so came back into the house. Still no energy, no stamina, worn out in very short order. The other night, he went VERY rapidly downhill about 4am - heart racing, couldn't breathe, etc. Ambulance was called. They took an hour to arrive (which isn't bad for round here - the last one I heard about, an 80yo who fell outside, was three...), spent 40 mins examining him, and came to the conclusion he was physically fine - it was "just" a major-league anxiety attack... He's been having vivid, bad dreams since the infection, and the suspicion is that he partially woke, and simply couldn't tell what was reality and what wasn't. Apparently, this is a known thing arising from the virus... I'm sure that has cheered up registerme no end.... RM doesn't need lessons from me and knows that the vast, vast majority who get it fair well. That's not to play it down as a tiny percentage of 65 million people and more in the world is still a large number but to you individually, its likely to be a tiny percentage who suffer that badly. If you're really worried which you probably aren't, get a cheap pulse oximeter and follow Google for how and when to use it. I recall reading it can alert you 12 hours before any move downwards. Edit: If you have a PCR do you get told if its omicron or not ?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 10, 2021 13:36:16 GMT
I'm sure that has cheered up registerme no end.... That made me laugh . And yeah, I have a pulse oximter. Re PCR tests and Omicron, I don't know. I recall watching or reading something that suggested that current PCR tests could "pre-filter" (?) for Omicron, but that for absolute verification further testing needed to be done. Something along the lines of "if it has this it's not Omicron, if it has that it could be"? Anyway, PCR tests are on order...
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. Stay well. 
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