registerme
Member of DD Central
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Post by registerme on Mar 15, 2020 10:54:35 GMT
I thought this was a good post from a doctor in Australia. " I’m an intensive care specialist in a small city.
Coronavirus isn’t just like the flu, but it’s only really very dangerous to the elderly or the already unwell. Quite a lot of people in their 80s will die, but most of the rest of us will probably be okay.
If you’re in your 70s and you get Coronavirus, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.
If you’re in your 60s and you have a heart attack, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.
If you’re in your 50s and need bowel cancer surgery, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.
If you’re in your 40s and have a bad car accident, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.
If you’re in your 30s and have terrible pre-eclampsia as a complication of pregnancy, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.
If you’re in your 20s and have a bad reaction to a party drug, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.
I have 7 beds equipped with life support machines. We have a plan to increase to about 25. Getting more isn’t a matter or more equipment or more money, that bit is easy. There are not enough skilled staff, even if we all work double shifts every day for six months (and we probably will).
If 50% of my city gets infected, that’s 75,000 people. If 5% of them need life support (which is the estimate), that’s 3750 people. For 25 beds.
And then I might not have a bed for you.
So it’s up to you to flatten the curve. Wash your hands. Stay home". |
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Mar 15, 2020 11:49:18 GMT
Wow - leaving your waitress 10% tip must feel like having teeth pulled!  Can’t say I see the connection. What you tip is related to the service you received and possibly related to service you may expect in the future. My buying habits are no different to do you pay £300 pound in one go for motor insurance or pay in 12 instalments? If the instalments are £30/each the answer for me is no way. If they’re £25 or so close to £25 that the credit is worth paying then I’d take the instalments. Jeez @deees!! I think bernythedolt was attempting something that's in short supply at the moment ie HUMOUR. You've clearly had a bypass. Christ, I'd hate to be banged up with you for FOUR MONTHS  
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 15, 2020 12:06:52 GMT
If the hysteria continues & escalates the way it is, this thread will be the only one on the P2P forum! The collapse of commerce as we know it is looking a real possibility, & we won't have any money to talk about! Airlines, travel, pubs, restaurants, sport, entertainment, retail, etc, etc, are all looking at financial collapse. We're walking toward a financial Armageddon!
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 15, 2020 12:10:01 GMT
Dara o' Briain on what should happen with the rest of the Premier League season:
"It surely wouldn’t be impossible to make all football clubs play out the fixtures on FIFA 20, with the players playing as themselves? A: it’s what they are all doing anyway, and B: We’d watch. Jesus, give us something to watch"
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 15, 2020 12:25:13 GMT
I dread to think what the Newspaper Sports pages will be filled with in weeks to come with no sport being played. Fear not, the snooker is carrying on! The Gibraltar Open is on today, I'm not sure whether it's being played behind closed doors or if this is just the usual crowd. edit: apparently they're playing without referees. Totally bizarre
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Post by dan1 on Mar 15, 2020 12:47:45 GMT
<snip> So it’s up to you to flatten the curve. Wash your hands. Stay home".Thanks for sharing. Yes, it's up to all of us to act responsibly. We should all be pro-active in response to the threat to our NHS and vulnerable (those with pre-existing medical conditions and the elderly). We should all be taking positive steps to ease the burden, for example: - eat healthier (cut down on those foods we know increase our risk of requiring medical intervention, even stuff like cooking that whole chicken for 10 minutes longer will help) - drink (even more) responsibly - defer that DIY tree surgery and don't use that extension ladder - reduce/stop high risk sports (I know there's a physical/mental health benefit but really they can be replaced with lower risk alternatives) - is there an alternative to cycling to work? (again health trade-offs but using you car/work from home then going for a jog after work must be better) I'm reminded at this time of all those people who queue too closely (you know, the impatient ones who invade our personal space). And confession time, I apologise for all those toes I've stepped on, swung rucksacks at, and bumped into in pursuit of my personal space.
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Post by dan1 on Mar 15, 2020 13:03:06 GMT
even stuff like cooking that whole chicken for 10 minutes longer will help For heavens sake !  Nobody needs to eat dry over-cooked poultry. Just get yourself a food thermometer and use it. Its not rocket science. ...or import chlorinated chicken ~~~ In Edit: see www.gov.uk/government/publications/campylobacter-infection-annual-data/campylobacter-data-2008-to-2017- that's 50,000 incidences - yes, not all required hospital treatment but they all required NHS resources if only for testing (pathology dept?). And that's just one example.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 15, 2020 13:13:39 GMT
Wow - leaving your waitress 10% tip must feel like having teeth pulled! Can’t say I see the connection. What you tip is related to the service you received and possibly related to service you may expect in the future. My buying habits are no different to do you pay £300 pound in one go for motor insurance or pay in 12 instalments? If the instalments are £30/each the answer for me is no way. If they’re £25 or so close to £25 that the credit is worth paying then I’d take the instalments. Some would view it as verging on the obsessive to worry about the lost 'opportunity cost' of the footprint taken up by a freezer in the garage, or the 'risk-reward-return' and 'near zero marginal storage cost' of one's food stockpile. Are you an accountant by any chance? But we are all different ...and long may it be so. 
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Mar 15, 2020 13:48:03 GMT
If the hysteria continues & escalates the way it is, this thread will be the only one on the P2P forum! The collapse of commerce as we know it is looking a real possibility, & we won't have any money to talk about! Airlines, travel, pubs, restaurants, sport, entertainment, retail, etc, etc, are all looking at financial collapse. We're walking toward a financial Armageddon! Is there anything else? This thread on the person2person forum is where I get my news from now.
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Post by wiseclerk on Mar 15, 2020 14:00:35 GMT
Confused... Advice from the chief scientific advisor: Achieve herd community to protect the vulnerable, youtu.be/2XRc389TvG8and yet 1% of the 60% population got infected might not make it???
"Don’t panic, but do prepare. If your government won’t help you, do it yourself." - quote from
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Mar 15, 2020 14:06:18 GMT
If the hysteria continues & escalates the way it is, this thread will be the only one on the P2P forum! The collapse of commerce as we know it is looking a real possibility, & we won't have any money to talk about! Airlines, travel, pubs, restaurants, sport, entertainment, retail, etc, etc, are all looking at financial collapse. We're walking toward a financial Armageddon! Is there anything else? This thread on the person2person forum is where I get my news from now. Shouldn't that be person<-2m->person ? 
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cb25
Posts: 3,528
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Post by cb25 on Mar 15, 2020 14:09:43 GMT
Confused... Advice from the chief scientific advisor: Achieve herd community to protect the vulnerable, youtu.be/2XRc389TvG8and yet 1% of the 60% population got infected might not make it???
"Don’t panic, but do prepare. If your government won’t help you, do it yourself." - quote from
From that article, the author William Hanage (researcher/teacher of evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health) says
"Is everyone in a high-risk group supposed to withdraw themselves from society for six months until they can emerge once the (so far entirely imaginary) second wave has been averted? About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know."
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Interesting, as it appears Matt Hancock is suggesting that very approach might be suggested in a few weeks - asking those aged 70+ to isolate for months. I can see why - reduces the risk of them getting Covid19 during that time and reduces the pressure on the NHS until the summer when 'normal' winter flu isn't around and the NHS will hopefully have more ventilators (use of which doesn't seem risk-free). However, when all the older citizens come out of their 'hibernation', they may still get the virus and the NHS may still not be able to save them all.
Will the lock-down also apply to those who have somebody aged 70+ in the house?
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EDIT: Those who think the UK is destined to follow Italy's path won't be cheered by "Coronavirus victims in Italy will be denied access to intensive care if they are aged 80 or more or in poor health should pressure on beds increase, a document prepared by a crisis management unit in Turin propose.", reports the Telegraph
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benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
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Post by benaj on Mar 15, 2020 14:18:38 GMT
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 15, 2020 17:02:07 GMT
Some would view it as verging on the obsessive to worry about the lost 'opportunity cost' of the footprint taken up by a freezer in the garage, or the 'risk-reward-return' and 'near zero marginal storage cost' of one's food stockpile. Are you an accountant by any chance? But we are all different ...and long may it be so. You quoted me so I’ll respond even though it’s probably time for me to give posting a rest. Firstly, I made the post to bring in all the factors at play and highlight the need for sane analysis. And it isn’t by any means what preoccupies me or bothers me in any way. And I’m certainly not an accountant, apologies to any accountants. Before turning to the analytical points I did also highlight the environmental costs of everyone aiming to double or triple their fridge-freezer capacity. Is that really where we want to take the world in the next few days? Anyone can see one upside in any action knee-jerk or otherwise. But anyone who can’t do a basic appraisal of the returns of a decision shouldn’t be in P2P and preferably quickly in their head without spreadsheets or calculators. Peace of mind can be made to be the answer to everything but anyone who wants peace of mind shouldn’t be in P2P. Many of the daily life decisions we’ll each need to make in life in the next few days will be about weighing up risk realistically and rationally and in the fullness of all the trade offs and then taking appropriate actions. My bad for assuming posters in this P2P forum were interested in analysis and thinking about how to make risk-reward decisions. Sorry to take up everyone’s time. You’re all probably busy ordering fridge-freezers online. I’d hurry up and get one before they run out! I suppose if I have to say something about myself I’m on average a bit more interested in approaches to problem solving, optimisation, trade off analysis, heuristics, thought processes etc than the next guy. I do hope you'll continue posting. Your contributions are invariably interesting, thought-provoking and well presented. If anything I've said has prompted that thinking, I apologise unreservedly. You clearly examine and analyse in much greater detail what others regard as their fairly trivial decisions in life - e.g. almost nobody would ever consider their 'hurdle rate return' when stocking up their food supplies, as you have. I've had to go away and look up what that even means, so I'm genuinely grateful to you for the chance of a little more education. I can only return to what I said above: we are all different ... and long may it be so.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 15, 2020 17:59:40 GMT
Visited Morrisons this morning. Most things are still available (far better choice than Tesco on the other side of town).
I did wonder why in a period of unprecedented demand they are still offering BOGOF. The accountants must be pulling their hair out.
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