adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 20, 2021 17:45:01 GMT
the 99 are idiots and are holding our great leader hostage...
I'll get my coat.
Nah, that lot are in full-on "Lynch Johnson" mode. Did you see the screenshots from the What's App group, where they kicked Dorries out because she dared support him over Frost's resignation? Steve Baker is full-fat ERG (former chair), and ringleader of the Covid rebels.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 20, 2021 18:16:21 GMT
Update from UKHSA
% of SGTF cases in London 87.4%, it was 44% 7 days ago.
Number of confirmed Omicron deaths: 14
Number of confirmed Omicron and SGTF hospitalisation: 129
At this rate, it's likely to have 100% SGTF Cases in London before Xmas.
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 20, 2021 18:49:22 GMT
Update from UKHSA % of SGTF cases in London 87.4%, it was 44% 7 days ago. Number of confirmed Omicron deaths: 14 Number of confirmed Omicron and SGTF hospitalisation: 129 At this rate, it's likely to have 100% SGTF Cases in London before Xmas. so here is fingers crossed that a) infection with 'O' gives a good degree of immunity from 'D' (which it must be doing, I can't see how variant A can be completely 'crowded out' by Variant B unless contracting it gives protection against the other [or removes any host for A, but lets not go there) and b) is significantly less virulent. At this point, I am pretty much of the view that we will all now 'catch' COVID at some point, probably in the not too distant future. Its difficult to see how something that is this infectious is not going to get to all of us (unless ultimately we have a golden bullet vaccine, but that seems unlikely, esp. given history with Coronoviruses).
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Dec 20, 2021 19:08:01 GMT
Assuming there is a scientific, quantitative measure of infectiousness I would like to see O, D, original, flue, and a few other well known viruses compared in a chart.
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corto
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one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Dec 20, 2021 21:37:31 GMT
The members of the SAGE emergency groups are the leading experts in government and in Science in the respective fields of emergency. For the latter what makes them scientific leaders is that their research and opinions are usually considered solid and widely accepted amongst the relevant experts. I am mostly with you on this: its not like SAGE is one person, it is a group of people who in effect one expects are challenging each other and in effect performing peer review of each others input. Nonetheless, they have wrapped up in the whole COVID thing for a long time now (no s*** sherlock I hear you say), which means one has to acknowledge the potential/risk for 'group think' to have developed. I don't know how much churn/injection of fresh faces there have been into SAGE over the last close to 2 years. It would be good if there has been (i recall that some members of SAGE or its sub-committees resigned when certain members of the govt couldn't find their way to following the same rules that they had placed on others). The list of members is quite extensive and includes many of the best and highly decorated researchers the UK has available. www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-sage-register-of-participants-interests/sage-covid-19-register-of-participants-interestsThe "group think" is therefore the opinion that UK Science has about the Covid issues. UK Science is also known to be quite innovative. Many of these researchers will have teams working on new ideas. These people are also embedded in the global network of Science and the UK's general opinion is not much different from that of Scientists in other countries.
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corto
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Post by corto on Dec 20, 2021 22:02:12 GMT
Update from UKHSA % of SGTF cases in London 87.4%, it was 44% 7 days ago. Number of confirmed Omicron deaths: 14 Number of confirmed Omicron and SGTF hospitalisation: 129 At this rate, it's likely to have 100% SGTF Cases in London before Xmas. so here is fingers crossed that a) infection with 'O' gives a good degree of immunity from 'D' (which it must be doing, I can't see how variant A can be completely 'crowded out' by Variant B unless contracting it gives protection against the other [or removes any host for A, but lets not go there) and b) is significantly less virulent. At this point, I am pretty much of the view that we will all now 'catch' COVID at some point, probably in the not too distant future. Its difficult to see how something that is this infectious is not going to get to all of us (unless ultimately we have a golden bullet vaccine, but that seems unlikely, esp. given history with Coronoviruses). It may still be possible to break the growth of, both, delta and omicron, as for example the German numbers may suggest (https://www.spiegel.de/ figure a little down the page); we will see what happens in the Netherlands with their lockdown. That does not mean I expect an efficient control of the growth in this country as the UK has already decided to delay. It is also very likely that there will be more variants. Nobody knows, if that process can be broken or even controlled better than done over the last 2 years. So, yes, I also think we will all get this or another variant at some point. The gov is in a dilemma to choose between damaging public health and damaging businesses and finances. The right wingers prefer the first. NHS is at breaking point.
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 20, 2021 22:37:41 GMT
Assuming there is a scientific, quantitative measure of infectiousness I would like to see O, D, original, flue, and a few other well known viruses compared in a chart. thius might be of some interest. Clearly the ink is still wet on the page, and approximate, but the ball park numbers given there are 4:2:1 for O,D, wild (original). A tantalizing clue to why omicron is spreading so quickly
I might be wrong, but I think flu is at a different party right now. Partly i suspect because there is a high level of broad spectrum population immunity due to prior exposure. oh, i found research papers that talk about r values of 1.2 for influensa. And others that say Omicron is about 3 to 4. That of course is a staggering and quite worryimg difference. But r values to mean anything in terms of relative infectiousness need to be normalised to a common environmental baseline, not just be a measure for the 'current' socio-environmental baseline.
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corto
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Post by corto on Dec 21, 2021 0:40:59 GMT
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 21, 2021 8:03:16 GMT
Assuming there is a scientific, quantitative measure of infectiousness I would like to see O, D, original, flue, and a few other well known viruses compared in a chart. thius might be of some interest. Clearly the ink is still wet on the page, and approximate, but the ball park numbers given there are 4:2:1 for O,D, wild (original). A tantalizing clue to why omicron is spreading so quickly
I might be wrong, but I think flu is at a different party right now. Partly i suspect because there is a high level of broad spectrum population immunity due to prior exposure. oh, i found research papers that talk about r values of 1.2 for influensa. And others that say Omicron is about 3 to 4. That of course is a staggering and quite worryimg difference. But r values to mean anything in terms of relative infectiousness need to be normalised to a common environmental baseline, not just be a measure for the 'current' socio-environmental baseline. But how many people actually report having flu, mostly it's mild (most years) so will be hugely under reported. As will Omicron if it is mild, although at least people may test for that if they are even slightly ill, which didn't apply to the original strain (limited testing available) so those figures may be very low as well. Too many unknown variables for me.
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 21, 2021 8:10:40 GMT
thius might be of some interest. Clearly the ink is still wet on the page, and approximate, but the ball park numbers given there are 4:2:1 for O,D, wild (original). A tantalizing clue to why omicron is spreading so quickly
I might be wrong, but I think flu is at a different party right now. Partly i suspect because there is a high level of broad spectrum population immunity due to prior exposure. oh, i found research papers that talk about r values of 1.2 for influensa. And others that say Omicron is about 3 to 4. That of course is a staggering and quite worryimg difference. But r values to mean anything in terms of relative infectiousness need to be normalised to a common environmental baseline, not just be a measure for the 'current' socio-environmental baseline. But how many people actually report having flu, mostly it's mild (most years) so will be hugely under reported. As will Omicron if it is mild, although at least people may test for that if they are even slightly ill, which didn't apply to the original strain (limited testing available) so those figures may be very low as well. Too many unknown variables for me. I think if your intent was to do proper research into the infection rate of flu, it wouldn't be particularly troublesome to design a study to do just that. I would think you wouldn't need to rely on the random behaviours of the general population self reporting. But I didn't read the papers I found other than cursorily so can't comment on actual methodolgy that may have been used.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 21, 2021 8:30:39 GMT
Freedom!
And just tested negative on an LFT.
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 21, 2021 9:51:48 GMT
Back on the subject of over paid professional footballers not getting vaccinated. From the Times: The tragedy that inspired Leeds United stars to get jabThat is behind a firewall unfortunately. Its a good article. I'll copy one small extract from it: "Leeds are too measured as a club to let rip but they could have rounded on the club that got a game postponed because one or more of their unvaccinated players was isolating. They hadn’t tested positive. They had just come into a contact with somebody who had, so they had ten days in the domestic slammer. Those individuals should feel ashamed. Football’s anti-vaxxers should think of their fans, who spent hard-earned money to attend that match, booking travel and some even accommodation, juggling shifts or negotiating with bosses for time off work. And then being let down by a selfish star."Quite. |
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Dec 21, 2021 10:00:39 GMT
Checked in at one of the vaccination centre this morning.
No queues. All boosted already or there’s no hurry?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2021 10:17:06 GMT
Back on the subject of over paid professional footballers not getting vaccinated. From the Times: The tragedy that inspired Leeds United stars to get jabThat is behind a firewall unfortunately. Its a good article. I'll copy one small extract from it: "Leeds are too measured as a club to let rip but they could have rounded on the club that got a game postponed because one or more of their unvaccinated players was isolating. They hadn’t tested positive. They had just come into a contact with somebody who had, so they had ten days in the domestic slammer. Those individuals should feel ashamed. Football’s anti-vaxxers should think of their fans, who spent hard-earned money to attend that match, booking travel and some even accommodation, juggling shifts or negotiating with bosses for time off work. And then being let down by a selfish star."Quite. Given that pro football players have something akin to the only legal slave contract it is amazing to think their owners have not sat on the necks (cue US images) and forced the vaccine in. Rant over.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 21, 2021 10:23:30 GMT
and I see shagger Foden (the one who left his wife and young son at home while getting jiggy with an Icelandic model) has been misbehaving again.
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