benaj
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Post by benaj on Mar 17, 2020 15:09:02 GMT
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to use mobile phone technology to track those with coronavirus. Once target locked on a drone can be brought in....zap! After my experience this morning I think I'd be reasonably supportive of such efforts:- Queue 1 - in the bank, a fella in front of me in the queue spent five minutes with his finger up his nose, then used the same hand to pass over cash to the cashier. Queue 2 - woman immediately behind me in the queue in Tescos on the phone to somebody for ten minutes talking about how her flatmate had displayed all COVID-19 symptoms and been told by her doctor to self-isolate. It was difficult because they shared a kitchen and bathroom etc. Yet she thought it was a good idea to spend time in a packed supermarket. I just.... Yes, we are living in a "free" country now. Not all people turn on the TV, nor read the news, or even listen to what other people said.
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Post by moonraker on Mar 17, 2020 15:25:47 GMT
After two attempts, I got onto the Waitrose website, logged on and got a long list of purchases I've made on weekly visits. (Shall have to edit that) I worked my way through it, bypassed a couple of pages suggesting things that I might like or have forgotten, and reached the booking-a-delivery page. I ploughed on and, and finally got a spare slot on April 21.
I'm not blaming Waitrose (and I think they may improve things, so I'll be keeping an eye on the bookings page) - obviously there's been a torrent of new business. I think that the Government restrictions aim for the ideal, but there will be an inevitable shortfall in implementing them. At this early stage, I'm not sure how completely I want to go in slavishly adopting them - especially give the nonchalance, cynicism and stupidity of others.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 17, 2020 15:39:27 GMT
Going to Tescos tomorrow a.m. to 'panic buy' firelighters and a bit of milk. Also removing a shed load of dosh from my current account in order to start a 'run'.  . The Mobile Lbrary is due too ... my heart is beating with anticipation. |
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 17, 2020 16:53:34 GMT
After my experience this morning I think I'd be reasonably supportive of such efforts:- Queue 1 - in the bank, a fella in front of me in the queue spent five minutes with his finger up his nose, then used the same hand to pass over cash to the cashier. Queue 2 - woman immediately behind me in the queue in Tescos on the phone to somebody for ten minutes talking about how her flatmate had displayed all COVID-19 symptoms and been told by her doctor to self-isolate. It was difficult because they shared a kitchen and bathroom etc. Yet she thought it was a good idea to spend time in a packed supermarket. I just.... Yes, really bad behaviour and also worrying when you're out and about. We are close to self isolating now largely because we can. However, I am starting to very slowly shift my position towards a herd-immunity response. Unless it turns out to be V shaped over a short period, the damage done by stopping everyone and everything may be greater than the thing itself. No evidence supplied - even with evidence you couldn't get enough of the subjective sort and be sure what kind of response is the most appropriate. How do you compare X hundred thousand deaths VS utter breakdown of society including riots, looting, burglaries etc? As an aside I worked in IT security for a long time and I recall many colleagues were keen to advise senior managers of the huge risks if even more money wasn't spent on doing xyz to increase security. That often meant a slow down in productivity and general annoyance among the workforce. There was a balance to be struck but because it was so easy to scare such managers about what _could_ happen, they tended to err on the cautious. The security team felt good though - they were needed more than ever. I do sense there might be a little bit of that going on now. I don't understand the huge number of deaths being predicted in the UK, Hubei where it all started has a population about the same as the UK with 3000 deaths and virtually no new cases. Are we expecting a huge rebound of cases there?
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 17, 2020 16:57:30 GMT
Going to Tescos tomorrow a.m. to 'panic buy' firelighters and a bit of milk. Also removing a shed load of dosh from my current account in order to start a 'run'. . The Mobile Lbrary is due too ... my heart is beating with anticipation. I believe there are Remainers trying to offload supplies they stockpiled prior to Brexit. They believed there would be a nationwide famine once we Brexited! It didn't happen then & it won't happen now!
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 17, 2020 17:04:04 GMT
Yes, really bad behaviour and also worrying when you're out and about. We are close to self isolating now largely because we can. However, I am starting to very slowly shift my position towards a herd-immunity response. Unless it turns out to be V shaped over a short period, the damage done by stopping everyone and everything may be greater than the thing itself. No evidence supplied - even with evidence you couldn't get enough of the subjective sort and be sure what kind of response is the most appropriate. How do you compare X hundred thousand deaths VS utter breakdown of society including riots, looting, burglaries etc? As an aside I worked in IT security for a long time and I recall many colleagues were keen to advise senior managers of the huge risks if even more money wasn't spent on doing xyz to increase security. That often meant a slow down in productivity and general annoyance among the workforce. There was a balance to be struck but because it was so easy to scare such managers about what _could_ happen, they tended to err on the cautious. The security team felt good though - they were needed more than ever. I do sense there might be a little bit of that going on now. I don't understand the huge number of deaths being predicted in the UK, Hubei where it all started has a population about the same as the UK with 3000 deaths and virtually no new cases. Are we expecting a huge rebound of cases there? 56 deaths since the virus started in the UK is a minuscule number & a mere fraction of the 70m population. Some of those who contracted it without underlying health issues appear to have made a relatively quick recovery. Several footballers within days & Tom Hanks within a week. I believe China is urging everyone outside of Hubei back to work.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Mar 17, 2020 17:11:33 GMT
Anyone watching the news conference live? According to Sir Vallance, UK may have up to 55,000 cases of coronavirus already, He said keeping the number of deaths from coronavirus below 20,000 would be a good outcome " Whatever it takes ..." |
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 17, 2020 17:24:43 GMT
I don't understand the huge number of deaths being predicted in the UK, Hubei where it all started has a population about the same as the UK with 3000 deaths and virtually no new cases. Are we expecting a huge rebound of cases there? Academic estimates for actual deaths in China vary from 10x to 100x reported. The lockdown in Hubei was and remains absolutely draconian. But setting aside these aspects which can be disputed, I think the real conundrum behind your question is how can "normal" activity resume before a vaccine is widely available in an era of being a major part of the global economy. Hubei is a major centre for the international automotive industry, and ordinarily would expect significant travel to & from Germany, South Korea, US and Japan. The other longstanding Hubei industry is pharma api (mainly off patent) and would ordinarily expect significant travel to & from India and to a lesser extent US. The latest from Beijing is throughout China all international arrivals will have to self-quarantine for 14 days. Which kills business travel. Yes, some can be replaced by video conferencing, but much can't. China has adopted a surpress at all costs strategy which made sense at the beginning (once they got serious) but once it spread across the world total supression just isn't going to work. So .... whilst the draconian lockdown in Hubei appears to have succeeded (irrespective of number of actual deaths, the consensus is they have levelled off), China is at risk of being re-seeded from outside once the lockdown is relaxed, with a huge increase in cases .... or they cut themselves off from the rest of world for the next 18 months to stop the import of new cases.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 17, 2020 17:54:32 GMT
BBC reporting "Chancellor unveils £330bn lifeline for economy"
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 17, 2020 18:07:53 GMT
I don't understand the huge number of deaths being predicted in the UK, Hubei where it all started has a population about the same as the UK with 3000 deaths and virtually no new cases. Are we expecting a huge rebound of cases there? .....China is at risk of being re-seeded from outside once the lockdown is relaxed, with a huge increase in cases .... or they cut themselves off from the rest of world for the next 18 months to stop the import of new cases. But its not just re-seeding from the outside - internally it has probably been suppressed but not extinguished. If the internal lockdown is relaxed then the embers could re-ignite.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 17, 2020 18:14:56 GMT
.....China is at risk of being re-seeded from outside once the lockdown is relaxed, with a huge increase in cases .... or they cut themselves off from the rest of world for the next 18 months to stop the import of new cases. But its not just re-seeding from the outside - internally it has probably been suppressed but not extinguished. If the internal lockdown is relaxed then the embers could re-ignite. will
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 17, 2020 18:25:24 GMT
If this all turns out to be a damp squib....... I get the feeling that there's a lot of loans milking it at the moment. Cash Flow .Staff off for 2 weeks.
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 17, 2020 18:35:17 GMT
However, I am starting to very slowly shift my position towards a herd-immunity response. Unless it turns out to be V shaped over a short period, the damage done by stopping everyone and everything may be greater than the thing itself. No evidence supplied - even with evidence you couldn't get enough of the subjective sort and be sure what kind of response is the most appropriate. How do you compare X hundred thousand deaths VS utter breakdown of society including riots, looting, burglaries etc? Upto this point my brain has coped quite well with analysing events and building a risk model. Nothing that has occured couldn't reasonably have been expected by studying events in China late Jan/early Feb, though I underestimated timescales and probabilities badly, as well as Trump's capacity for refusing to listen to experts. But where we are today just leaves my brain churning like car tyres in slush. That underestimating timescales is key, a vaccine (if it is possible which is by no means certain) was always going to take c. 18 months but the world has now backed itself into a lockdown corner until herd immunity is achieved (by mass exposure over years to allow health services to cope, or a vaccine also in a timescale of years).
The Guardian reporting on this evening's news conference (my bold) "Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, says Imperial College have been working with the government all along. He says the suppression techniques need to be done in such a way that they can be released at some point. But he says no one in the world yet knows how to do this."
A breakdown in society is what concerns me most at this point, a repeat of the August 2011 riots is not an outlandish prospect. Nothing the chancellor can do in the background is going to solve the problem of a bored and frustrated population required to stay at home, particularly as the weather heats up the big cities. What ever angle I attempt to look at this from (health, investment, societal) I reach the conclusion that things are likely to get much worse before they get better.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 17, 2020 20:19:02 GMT
There will be a growing cohort who have had and recovered from the virus will they be allowed to re-start normal society will they be given a certificate or a mark to show they're ok to be out and about? OR can they infect others?
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Post by Please turn me over on Mar 17, 2020 20:35:09 GMT
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. The Mobile Lbrary is due too ... my heart is beating with anticipation.
