corto
Member of DD Central
one-syllabistic
Posts: 851
Likes: 356
|
Post by corto on Feb 4, 2020 16:22:27 GMT
With a 5% rise in 2 days for emerging markets, does this suggest that markets believe it's under control? (that's a genuine question btw) The rise of cases has slowed down which is a good sign; instead of exponentially increasing it looks more like the number of total cases is flattening It's also not spreading uncontrolled (at least for the moment)
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,692
Likes: 3,018
|
Post by IFISAcava on Feb 4, 2020 16:24:59 GMT
Now seen that MRC has mentioned this but what the hell: UK tells all Brits to leave China (wherever you are)
Did this happen during SARS ? I'm not sure it did.
Does anyone else have that niggling suspicion that the world reaction at Govt. level is telling us it might just be tiddly widdly bit worse than it appears on the surface ?
Back to my coughing.
I suspect it is more to do with governments fearing criticism/blame if they aren't seen to be doing something. In terms of health, it is a nasty virus, a bit worse than influenza but not as bad as SARS (and nowhere near Ebola) and it tends to be the already sick/frail/elderly that die. Deaths are still in the hundreds. In terms of economics, the world reaction is the main ill effect. In terms of counter productivity, one only has to look at the boy who died because his father was in quarantine, think of lots of other ways people will suffer (eg anxiety disorders and OCD are going to affect a lot of people for a long time), imagine all the adverse effects of enforced quarantine, and think of how economic hardships secondary to the world reaction will also harm people. The more governments do, the more people panic because - like you are suggesting - they suspect that means there is more to it. I refer you to my earlier posts on influenza, measles, malaria etc deaths - if we really cared about deaths we'd be tackling those. Sensible precautions are needed; what we seem to be getting is anything but. EDIT: for context, China has quarantined 30 million people. Once can only imagine the ill effects that will have.
|
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 5, 2020 10:57:32 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 5, 2020 11:08:55 GMT
With a 5% rise in 2 days for emerging markets, does this suggest that markets believe it's under control? (that's a genuine question btw) As per mrclondon's comment.... China accounts for "only" 37% of VFEM... although if you're from PRC you'd probably claim 50% 
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2020 12:36:50 GMT
This forum perfectly illustrates the dilemma facing those tasked with pandemic prevention. If they fail, they'll be accused of incompetence and complacency. If they succeed, they'll be accused of over-reacting and scaremongering. Outbreak, what outbreak?  |
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,690 
Likes: 2,977
Member is Online
|
Post by michaelc on Feb 5, 2020 14:44:28 GMT
With a 5% rise in 2 days for emerging markets, does this suggest that markets believe it's under control? (that's a genuine question btw) As per mrclondon 's comment.... China accounts for "only" 37% of VFEM... although if you're from PRC you'd probably claim 50% Not so this fellow I "wisely" invested in pretty well at the last peak. www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/j/jupiter-china-class-i-accumulation/charts
|
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 5, 2020 14:49:28 GMT
As per mrclondon 's comment.... China accounts for "only" 37% of VFEM... although if you're from PRC you'd probably claim 50% Not so this fellow I "wisely" invested in pretty well at the last peak. www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/j/jupiter-china-class-i-accumulation/charts It's down, what, something like 12% from the peak? TBH I'd expect much worse looking at the news over the past month or so. I'm sure you'll do well enough over the long term because, let's face it, if China tanks then we're all in trouble!
|
|
Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,377
Likes: 2,780
|
Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 5, 2020 14:53:02 GMT
Now seen that MRC has mentioned this but what the hell: UK tells all Brits to leave China (wherever you are)
Did this happen during SARS ? I'm not sure it did.
Does anyone else have that niggling suspicion that the world reaction at Govt. level is telling us it might just be tiddly widdly bit worse than it appears on the surface ?
Back to my coughing.
A lot of it does seem like over reaction if it is just a flu like illness that most fit people will recover from in a week or two. Sometimes in the UK it seems like everyone you know, has the flu, is just getting the flu or is just getting over the flu.
|
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Feb 5, 2020 15:06:43 GMT
Now seen that MRC has mentioned this but what the hell: UK tells all Brits to leave China (wherever you are)
Did this happen during SARS ? I'm not sure it did.
Does anyone else have that niggling suspicion that the world reaction at Govt. level is telling us it might just be tiddly widdly bit worse than it appears on the surface ?
Back to my coughing.
A lot of it does seem like over reaction if it is just a flu like illness that most fit people will recover from in a week or two. Sometimes in the UK it seems like everyone you know, has the flu, is just getting the flu or is just getting over the flu. Most of them have colds. Only the men have flu.
|
|
|
|
Post by mrclondon on Feb 5, 2020 15:15:12 GMT
This forum perfectly illustrates the dilemma facing those tasked with pandemic prevention. If they fail, they'll be accused of incompetence and complacency. If they succeed, they'll be accused of over-reacting and scaremongering. Outbreak, what outbreak? Indeed it is a very fine line everyone involved in the crisis faces, both in terms of actions implemented and the degree of openess about what is known, especially when the two generate conflicts. There are lots of media reports of UK expats in China bewildered by yesterday's FO advice to get out when not accompanied by any detailed risk analysis.
It seems to be fact that China did not respond positively at the beginning and has therefore contributed to the spread of the virus. Whether the numbers reported daily by China over the last couple of weeks are ok within the error bounds of known time lag and resource constraints or are deliberately being downplayed is a matter for speculation. But, irrespective, the figures for each province in China mount steadily (the exceptions are the remote sparacely populated western provinces).
Setting aside concerns over data quality, what/where the ground zero of the outbreak is, and general communist policical ideology, it is hard not to be impressed by aspects of the Chinese response to the crisis. The 10-day timespan to build a huge modular hospital is just jaw dropping (providing the whole is as good as the PR photos released show). There have been various media reports of whole cities being sprayed with disinfectant, and whilst I'm not sure how effective that is in practise, as an engineer this video posted on twitter of a truck towing a "cannon" spraying disinfectant caught my eye. I guess its similiar technology to snow cannon.
Another bit of news that caught my eye is a major manufacturing trade show (plastics, reference) scheduled for late April in Shanghai has been cancelled. There is already a clear acceptance that this isn't going to be largely over in just a matter of weeks
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2020 15:28:15 GMT
Indeed it is a very fine line everyone involved in the crisis faces, both in terms of actions implemented and the degree of openess about what is known, especially when the two generate conflicts. Not just what is known, but what is not known and cannot possibly be known at this stage. Things like mutation rates now that it has jumped to humans, long-term prognosis for survivors etc... One of my favourite misused stats is the death rate. This gets thrown around like some kind of binary outcome - death or live happily ever after, which is far from the case. These SARS/MERS type viruses can cause horrible long-term complications - permanently impaired lung function, damage to other organs etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2020 15:38:56 GMT
And one other vital thing to remember when quoting death rate for illnesses like SARS - the infected population was so small, that most patients were given top-notch medical care - a significant number only survived because of access to intensive care wards.
If the virus had spread more easily, medical care facilities would have been overwhelmed, and the death rate would have been significantly higher.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,597
Likes: 1,736
|
Post by benaj on Feb 5, 2020 18:15:08 GMT
And one other vital thing to remember when quoting death rate for illnesses like SARS - the infected population was so small, that most patients were given top-notch medical care - a significant number only survived because of access to intensive care wards. If the virus had spread more easily, medical care facilities would have been overwhelmed, and the death rate would have been significantly higher. Hong Kong and Canada suffered badly during the SARS outbreak, death rate over 17%. No one would have imagined Canada had 251 cases compared to other western countries
|
|
|
|
Post by mrclondon on Feb 5, 2020 23:50:36 GMT
An astoundingly blunt opinion piece in the Telegraph this evening.
the final sentence "Close China-watchers - and some very sharp scientists - suspect that this latest flurry of optimism is just a lull before the thunderstorm."
|
|
Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
Posts: 2,011
Likes: 1,013
|
Post by Godanubis on Feb 6, 2020 1:05:59 GMT
At current infection rate over 1 million will be infected by end of the month  |
|
