rrrupert
Member of DD Central
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Post by rrrupert on Aug 14, 2020 15:07:16 GMT
nothing so far since wednesday in my QAA
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Post by korky on Aug 14, 2020 15:25:00 GMT
Will all access holdings that are set to withdraw get a payment? Including those that are at a discount?
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jimth
New Member
Posts: 4
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Post by jimth on Aug 14, 2020 15:56:25 GMT
Will all access holdings that are set to withdraw get a payment? Including those that are at a discount? I asked on live chat and was told that the regular redemption payments would carry on. The majority of my funds are in the 30day AA, so not sure about discounted withdrawals from QAA.
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ceejay
Posts: 975
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Post by ceejay on Aug 14, 2020 15:57:05 GMT
Will all access holdings that are set to withdraw get a payment? Including those that are at a discount? It's been confirmed that distributions go to everyone that has a withdrawal set, regardless of discounts. What's not clear is how much of these repayments will be distributed or when.
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Post by davee39 on Aug 14, 2020 20:18:39 GMT
The last distribution was made before the new market went live.
If something went horribly wrong with the trading system, and trades had to be reversed, it would be much easier if no cash payouts had been made.
Based on the high level of cash in the accounts, and the lack of payouts, I assume the payouts have been switched off (or perhaps they have forgotten to switch them on).
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
Posts: 746
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Post by dead-money on Aug 14, 2020 22:51:26 GMT
The last distribution was made before the new market went live. If something went horribly wrong with the trading system, and trades had to be reversed, it would be much easier if no cash payouts had been made. Based on the high level of cash in the accounts, and the lack of payouts, I assume the payouts have been switched off (or perhaps they have forgotten to switch them on). Maybe they've are aiming to top-up Access Account cash to 10% and declare 'normal market conditions' have returned? Who knows... chris stuartassetzcapital
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Post by Harland Kearney on Aug 15, 2020 0:18:09 GMT
The last distribution was made before the new market went live. If something went horribly wrong with the trading system, and trades had to be reversed, it would be much easier if no cash payouts had been made. Based on the high level of cash in the accounts, and the lack of payouts, I assume the payouts have been switched off (or perhaps they have forgotten to switch them on). Maybe they've are aiming to top-up Access Account cash to 10% and declare 'normal market conditions' have returned? Who knows... chris stuartassetzcapital I'm sure people who sold at double digits discount would be thriller. Just wait for the threads haha. Extremely unlikely they will return AA's to normal anytime soon, too tierd to list all the possible reasons why, speculating ofc. How AA's will return to normal I'm not sure. Possibly once selling rates reach >2% negative levels it may start to look a bit more likely. (Since trading will have to be high for discounts to get that low, in simple trading theory anyway)
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ceejay
Posts: 975
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Post by ceejay on Aug 15, 2020 7:28:13 GMT
The last distribution was made before the new market went live. If something went horribly wrong with the trading system, and trades had to be reversed, it would be much easier if no cash payouts had been made.
Based on the high level of cash in the accounts, and the lack of payouts, I assume the payouts have been switched off (or perhaps they have forgotten to switch them on). ... surely that would only work if they had also turned off cash withdrawals for those who sold out .... and in the absence of deafening screams here, I'm pretty sure they haven't done that ...
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ceejay
Posts: 975
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Post by ceejay on Aug 15, 2020 7:49:12 GMT
Maybe they've are aiming to top-up Access Account cash to 10% and declare 'normal market conditions' have returned? Who knows... chris stuartassetzcapital I'm sure people who sold at double digits discount would be thriller. Just wait for the threads haha. Extremely unlikely they will return AA's to normal anytime soon, too tierd to list all the possible reasons why, speculating ofc. How AA's will return to normal I'm not sure. Possibly once selling rates reach >2% negative levels it may start to look a bit more likely. (Since trading will have to be high for discounts to get that low, in simple trading theory anyway) This is a really good question, and I am also struggling to see an answer. How, if ever, do the AAs ever return to the status quo ante? Now that we have all been comprehensively reminded of what will happen when "normal market conditions" don't apply, who would invest new money at par into a product with no clear exit option? (ie, if the SM were withdrawn)[besides, imagine the stampede for the exit if AC were to announce the withdrawal of the SM!] And if the SM is retained, great, we can all be confident that we have the ability to exit in the future, albeit at the expense of a small discount, so may well decide to leave some or all of our current investment in place... but all "new" investment will simply be replacing exiting investors at a discount, so there's no new money coming in. Meanwhile money is exiting via redemptions, and so the AAs just gradually run down. Open question as to how messy the last bit gets when we are down to just the bad loans - perhaps just write them off and distribute the PF as cash. New money will only come in if the market rate for sales reaches par. Is this what AC are hoping for? It could take a while, and we might very well hit the bottom of the barrel of loans before we get to that point. My conclusion is that we are in a slowly managed decline in the size of these accounts: maybe they will be replaced by some new product, or maybe the MLA will be the only retail product available. If this is what is happening then I'm fine with that - an orderly run down is ok. Though if that is AC's plan I can see why they wouldn't want to admit it!
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
Posts: 746
Likes: 654
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Post by dead-money on Aug 15, 2020 7:52:29 GMT
Maybe they've are aiming to top-up Access Account cash to 10% and declare 'normal market conditions' have returned? Who knows... chris stuartassetzcapital I'm sure people who sold at double digits discount would be thriller. Just wait for the threads haha. Extremely unlikely they will return AA's to normal anytime soon, too tierd to list all the possible reasons why, speculating ofc. How AA's will return to normal I'm not sure. Possibly once selling rates reach >2% negative levels it may start to look a bit more likely. (Since trading will have to be high for discounts to get that low, in simple trading theory anyway) Worth noting that the definition of 'Normal market conditions' is that lenders can exit from the access accounts in the course of normal business, nothing said about this being at par. The secondary market has given a fair price to sellers and there's no indication that anyone wishing to exit can't, provided they accept the market price.
I now view the access account holdings as comparable to corporate bonds, they may have a nominal value but the current price and thus return is set by the market.
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Normal market conditions
“Normal market conditions” means economic conditions are reasonably stable, our lenders are making withdrawals from the ‘Access Accounts’ (Quick Access, 30 Day Access & 90 Day Access Accounts) in the normal course of business and other lenders are willing and able to buy their loan units through those accounts and others that we offer.
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Aug 15, 2020 7:57:29 GMT
The last distribution was made before the new market went live. If something went horribly wrong with the trading system, and trades had to be reversed, it would be much easier if no cash payouts had been made.
Based on the high level of cash in the accounts, and the lack of payouts, I assume the payouts have been switched off (or perhaps they have forgotten to switch them on). ... surely that would only work if they had also turned off cash withdrawals for those who sold out .... and in the absence of deafening screams here, I'm pretty sure they haven't done that ... The other factor is that cash distributions will affect the 'natural' trend of the discount rate and I think they will want to see where that settles, for a few days. Also a cash injection can be used to push down the discount rate if lender cash dries up. It will be interesting to see how the discount rate is affected by interest payments at the end of the month - which they must pay on the due date.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Aug 15, 2020 12:19:09 GMT
I'm sure people who sold at double digits discount would be thriller. Just wait for the threads haha. Extremely unlikely they will return AA's to normal anytime soon, too tierd to list all the possible reasons why, speculating ofc. How AA's will return to normal I'm not sure. Possibly once selling rates reach >2% negative levels it may start to look a bit more likely. (Since trading will have to be high for discounts to get that low, in simple trading theory anyway) Worth noting that the definition of 'Normal market conditions' is that lenders can exit from the access accounts in the course of normal business, nothing said about this being at par. The secondary market has given a fair price to sellers and there's no indication that anyone wishing to exit can't, provided they accept the market price.
I now view the access account holdings as comparable to corporate bonds, they may have a nominal value but the current price and thus return is set by the market.
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Normal market conditions
“Normal market conditions” means economic conditions are reasonably stable, our lenders are making withdrawals from the ‘Access Accounts’ (Quick Access, 30 Day Access & 90 Day Access Accounts) in the normal course of business and other lenders are willing and able to buy their loan units through those accounts and others that we offer.
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Of course, but ideally most investors are going to sell at PAR on this board. I will never invest another penny into such a product with a SM as it isn't the orginal reason I invested. I will remain invested as it isn't currently hurting my goals and interest is being paid. I'm also confident in AC ability to continue repayments at PAR from loan holdings. Will probs cashout once I get the 1% bonus, by that time (next March) it be clear if the SM is here to stay or not. I think many investors will share that concern on this board, not that we don't feel the SM is needed, I do in these times. But it isn't something I'd want to actively use once the crisis "goes away". If I wanted to flip like that, I'd use the MLA where rates of interest better justify the risk. Plus you dont' buy cra*p It is unrealistic for me to believe this AA will return to PAR. How can it, not with good loans being repaid, confidence hurt. I'm betting for a 2-3% discount after I get my 1% bonus. That more or less cover exiting alongside the interest paid. Overall though, I'm confident about AC ability to keep head above water and continue its venture forward.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Aug 15, 2020 19:15:18 GMT
Worth noting that the definition of 'Normal market conditions' is that lenders can exit from the access accounts in the course of normal business, nothing said about this being at par. The secondary market has given a fair price to sellers and there's no indication that anyone wishing to exit can't, provided they accept the market price.
I now view the access account holdings as comparable to corporate bonds, they may have a nominal value but the current price and thus return is set by the market.
>>
Normal market conditions
“Normal market conditions” means economic conditions are reasonably stable, our lenders are making withdrawals from the ‘Access Accounts’ (Quick Access, 30 Day Access & 90 Day Access Accounts) in the normal course of business and other lenders are willing and able to buy their loan units through those accounts and others that we offer.
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Of course, but ideally most investors are going to sell at PAR on this board. I will never invest another penny into such a product with a SM as it isn't the orginal reason I invested. I will remain invested as it isn't currently hurting my goals and interest is being paid. I'm also confident in AC ability to continue repayments at PAR from loan holdings. Will probs cashout once I get the 1% bonus, by that time (next March) it be clear if the SM is here to stay or not. I think many investors will share that concern on this board, not that we don't feel the SM is needed, I do in these times. But it isn't something I'd want to actively use once the crisis "goes away". If I wanted to flip like that, I'd use the MLA where rates of interest better justify the risk. Plus you dont' buy cra*p It is unrealistic for me to believe this AA will return to PAR. How can it, not with good loans being repaid, confidence hurt. I'm betting for a 2-3% discount after I get my 1% bonus. That more or less cover exiting alongside the interest paid. Overall though, I'm confident about AC ability to keep head above water and continue its venture forward.
My maths is poor but not as bad as my understanding of economics, so please correct me here.
Looking at the PF's for the three AA's leads me to think that some time in the next three months those in them (me included) will start to see more loans where we're locked in as the PF can't ring fence them any more. Leading to greater pressure to sell, I'm guessing bigger discounts at this point. But this fact might well pass by many Users not on this forum. After this, perhaps a year or three(?) when the PF's pick up and get above zero coverage, I'd have thought the AA's could come back to life. If it all take just one year I can't see why AC won't put new loans into the AA, if the covid recession lasts longer or there's more issues, I can easily see AC coming up with a new account name for a similar product along with winding up the AA's.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Aug 15, 2020 23:18:04 GMT
Of course, but ideally most investors are going to sell at PAR on this board. I will never invest another penny into such a product with a SM as it isn't the orginal reason I invested. I will remain invested as it isn't currently hurting my goals and interest is being paid. I'm also confident in AC ability to continue repayments at PAR from loan holdings. Will probs cashout once I get the 1% bonus, by that time (next March) it be clear if the SM is here to stay or not. I think many investors will share that concern on this board, not that we don't feel the SM is needed, I do in these times. But it isn't something I'd want to actively use once the crisis "goes away". If I wanted to flip like that, I'd use the MLA where rates of interest better justify the risk. Plus you dont' buy cra*p It is unrealistic for me to believe this AA will return to PAR. How can it, not with good loans being repaid, confidence hurt. I'm betting for a 2-3% discount after I get my 1% bonus. That more or less cover exiting alongside the interest paid. Overall though, I'm confident about AC ability to keep head above water and continue its venture forward.
My maths is poor but not as bad as my understanding of economics, so please correct me here.
Looking at the PF's for the three AA's leads me to think that some time in the next three months those in them (me included) will start to see more loans where we're locked in as the PF can't ring fence them any more. Leading to greater pressure to sell, I'm guessing bigger discounts at this point. But this fact might well pass by many Users not on this forum. After this, perhaps a year or three(?) when the PF's pick up and get above zero coverage, I'd have thought the AA's could come back to life. If it all take just one year I can't see why AC won't put new loans into the AA, if the covid recession lasts longer or there's more issues, I can easily see AC coming up with a new account name for a similar product along with winding up the AA's.
It is too early for me to second guess. But my personal circumstances dictate my actions above. Each individal should natrually assess the situaiton for their own context. Personally the discounts are very unlikely to go higher than what we saw this opening in the very short term. If I was going to sell I wasnt' going to do it alongside the fleeing ship in the first week where selling pressure was greatest. I think the only people who will find themselves forcing a discount is from a lost of confidence, no longer for a desire for liquidity. I don't see why any investors (although a few will, who will get sell easy for a larger loss) would sell at 7-9% discount this late in the market event. To me this seems very very high, even when analysing the health of the portfilio. It just seems like I'm shooting myself in the foot. Then again whatever helps one sleep. As for the PF, if the AA's became another glorfied GBBA, it would be the end for AC on the retail field. It would be akin to winding down for retail investors. Who the **** would invest in AC if that happened. I wouldn't.
What we need is some comm from AC on how they wish to apporach this issue, I think one thing that might be putting off new investment money is the big fat unknown of where AC plan to take the company in the retail sector. Its all well flipping the SM to make a few % but for any stick around investors that were flocking in before COVID, they dont' want this. They put their money in a tracker and continue life as normal, not play merry go round with the unknown ever changing circumstance of AC.
Desperate need for commuication of the grand strat here. Personally, this unknown if its left long enough would probs push me to accept a 5-7% discount out of fear.If confidence drops in AC then discount should follow suite, if it improves then out look may look better. However, what way it will swing is anyones guess. I'd be happy to sell out at 2-3%, the situation will likely change even before the end of 2020. For better or worse... Interesting times ahead.
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agent69
Member of DD Central
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Post by agent69 on Aug 16, 2020 9:02:25 GMT
I think the access accounts have always been an accident waiting to happen.
In normal times I was happy to invest in the QAA, as I believed that the fuse on the time bomb was long enough to allow me to exit before the bomb went off. Now we have abnormal conditions there is a significant cost associated with an immedate exit, which means that the accounts make no sense to me if you invest on a short term basis. I appreciate that some people are making money from flipping, but I have always thought that akin to pass the parcel (and if you play that game you need to be very aware of what you might be holding when the music stops).
The trouble with the AA's (as with all P2P) is the inordinate amount of time it takes to resolve defaulted loans. In an ideal scenario the rate of new defaults in the AA would be the same as the rate at which existing defaults are being resolved. That way you have a consistent level of defaults in the accounts. However, I suspect that in reality there are far more new defaults than resolved ones, which means that the toxicity of the pot grows over time.
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