alanh
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Post by alanh on Apr 10, 2020 13:37:11 GMT
In view of the ongoing discussion regarding the access accounts I have created a withdrawal date tracker that calculates how long it will take to withdraw all funds based upon the current cash disbursement rate from AC. The start date used is March 20th which was the date of the first disbursement. We are currently averaging just under £25 per day payout. I will update this every week or so. It includes all payments to date.
Investment size (£) Time to exit Exit date
1,000 20 days 30 Apr 2020
5,000 181 days Oct 2020
10,000 383 days Apr 2021
25,000 2.7 years Dec 2022
50,000 5.5 years Sep 2025
100,000 11 years Apr 2031
250,000 28 years Oct 2047
500,000 55 years May 2075
1,000,000 110 years Jul 2130
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Post by gravitykillz on Apr 10, 2020 13:42:18 GMT
I have a £1k in access for over 3 weeks.
All they have repaid is £70
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Apr 10, 2020 13:42:53 GMT
thank God we won’t have to read about you getting your million back.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Apr 10, 2020 13:44:34 GMT
Because the queue is going to rely of capital payments, currently this data is pretty much pointless until forebarance is over. Not wrong, just misleading (from a confidence stand point) or stating the obvious even unfontunely.
By end of July if you are still updating it then, I think it will tell us much more accurate information.
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alender
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Post by alender on Apr 10, 2020 13:48:43 GMT
I have a £1k in access for over 3 weeks. All they have repaid is £70 If you were in the pool from when it opened after the lockdown you should have £493.47 to date provided of course you had at least this amount in the pool.
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Apr 10, 2020 13:56:00 GMT
Because the queue is going to rely of capital payments, currently this data is pretty much pointless until forebarance is over. Not wrong, just misleading (from a confidence stand point) or stating the obvious even unfontunely. By end of July if you are still updating it then, I think it will tell us much more accurate information. Its a calculation based on actual payout that investors are receiving from AC. The numbers may get better in the future if loan redemptions pay out or they may get worse if the loans default and additional money joins the exit queue. No-one knows, thats why I am tracking it. Hardly pointless really is it?
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Apr 10, 2020 14:22:43 GMT
Because the queue is going to rely of capital payments, currently this data is pretty much pointless until forebarance is over. Not wrong, just misleading (from a confidence stand point) or stating the obvious even unfontunely. By end of July if you are still updating it then, I think it will tell us much more accurate information. Its a calculation based on actual payout that investors are receiving from AC. The numbers may get better in the future if loan redemptions pay out or they may get worse if the loans default and additional money joins the exit queue. No-one knows, thats why I am tracking it. Hardly pointless really is it? Depends what you think the point is. If you think that the point is to give you or others a useful indicator of when you'll get your money out then, yes, it is completely pointless, as this limited data is pretty much incapable of meaningful extrapolation. OTOH, if the point is to make you feel better by giving you something to do at a time when you are feeling powerless, then, sure, go ahead. But, please, do accompany it with a meaningful health warning just in case any reader is misled into taking it seriously.
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alanh
Posts: 556
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Post by alanh on Apr 10, 2020 14:34:19 GMT
Its a calculation based on actual payout that investors are receiving from AC. The numbers may get better in the future if loan redemptions pay out or they may get worse if the loans default and additional money joins the exit queue. No-one knows, thats why I am tracking it. Hardly pointless really is it? Depends what you think the point is. If you think that the point is to give you or others a useful indicator of when you'll get your money out then, yes, it is completely pointless, as this limited data is pretty much incapable of meaningful extrapolation. OTOH, if the point is to make you feel better by giving you something to do at a time when you are feeling powerless, then, sure, go ahead. But, please, do accompany it with a meaningful health warning just in case any reader is misled into taking it seriously. Maybe we should just look at your crystal ball then? Whether you like it or not, those are the figures so far and that is how long it is going to take. As I said, I will update the numbers every week or so as we get new ACTUAL DATA - as opposed to your or anyone elses guess. The health warning is already there - the numbers may get better, the numbers may get worse. AC may go bust, in which case it wont matter at all.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Apr 10, 2020 15:00:00 GMT
Because the queue is going to rely of capital payments, currently this data is pretty much pointless until forebarance is over. Not wrong, just misleading (from a confidence stand point) or stating the obvious even unfontunely. By end of July if you are still updating it then, I think it will tell us much more accurate information.Its a calculation based on actual payout that investors are receiving from AC. The numbers may get better in the future if loan redemptions pay out or they may get worse if the loans default and additional money joins the exit queue. No-one knows, thats why I am tracking it. Hardly pointless really is it? Thats why I said once more data is available it will have a purpose.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 10, 2020 15:11:57 GMT
Its a calculation based on actual payout that investors are receiving from AC. The numbers may get better in the future if loan redemptions pay out or they may get worse if the loans default and additional money joins the exit queue. No-one knows, thats why I am tracking it. Hardly pointless really is it? Thats why I said once more data is available it will have a purpose. I'm not sure it will tbh. Appreciate the endeavour and all, but I have to agree with ceejay. The problem is that it is not 'how long it is goes to take', as you can't extrapolate from this data that way. It would work if the loans were similar to RS and being paid off steadily, but here we could quite conceivably have four weeks of receiving £1 a day, and then £150 each when a large development loan redeems/refinances. Up until the end of the 4 weeks, your numbers would show decades to return large sums of money. After the £150, it'd look better, and then start to go downhill again until the next big redemption, which might be the next day or 2 months hence. ..Which doesn't really tell us much, aside from that we just need to wait for large development loans to complete. If you wanted to do something then you could take each QAA holding in turn (largest first), interpret the updates, and put an estimated redemption date on it based upon any likely delays. Then profile that redemption amount on some sort of graph to give you a vague stab as to when large amounts of money are going to be returned (and a downward bit for future tranche requirements) Obviously that's a lot more work though, and still laden with uncertainty given the usual construction/selling delays being overlapped with COVID unpredictability. Whatever you choose to do, would certainly suggest removing the extrapolated bit suggesting that people have decades (or indeed, centuries!) for their money to come back. That really doesn't follow.
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bg
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Post by bg on Apr 10, 2020 15:38:50 GMT
Thats why I said once more data is available it will have a purpose. I'm not sure it will tbh. Appreciate the endeavour and all, but I have to agree with ceejay. The problem is that it is not 'how long it is goes to take', as you can't extrapolate from this data that way. It would work if the loans were similar to RS and being paid off steadily, but here we could quite conceivably have four weeks of receiving £1 a day, and then £150 each when a large development loan redeems/refinances. Up until the end of the 4 weeks, your numbers would show decades to return large sums of money. After the £150, it'd look better, and then start to go downhill again until the next big redemption, which might be the next day or 2 months hence. ..Which doesn't really tell us much, aside from that we just need to wait for large development loans to complete. If you wanted to do something then you could take each QAA holding in turn (largest first), interpret the updates, and put an estimated redemption date on it based upon any likely delays. Then profile that redemption amount on some sort of graph to give you a vague stab as to when large amounts of money are going to be returned (and a downward bit for future tranche requirements) Obviously that's a lot more work though, and still laden with uncertainty given the usual construction/selling delays being overlapped with COVID unpredictability. Whatever you choose to do, would certainly suggest removing the extrapolated bit suggesting that people have decades (or indeed, centuries!) for their money to come back. That really doesn't follow. Absolutely right. This analysis is misleading at best. As has been well flagged, including by AC themselves, they are withholding the majority of cash inflows at the moment to build up a buffer for future drawdowns of existing loans. These drawdowns are ALREADY committed to. Every lender in these accounts have an interest in these loans succeeding and breaking the contract/agreement will not see them succeed, but instead lead to significant losses. Since the freeze of the accounts the net amount of cash in the Access accounts has increased by around £8m. It is ludicrous to extrapolate this forward and assume that they will still be withholding cash at this rate over a 100 years in the future. These developments will not be ongoing into the next century. Most of them have a term of 18m months and while this is now likely to slip a bit, to assume that is slips by over 100 years is unreasonable to say the least. They have already stated that this cash will not be used to originate new loans, my guess is that they will be looking to maintain the cash buffer roughly around where it is now so future so any big redemption's will likely see a larger payout to lenders.
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Post by gravitykillz on Apr 10, 2020 15:52:29 GMT
Maybe assetz should create a 120 day limited edition(provision backed)account at 8%. I would happily invest at that rate. As I think would others.
This would provide a certain level of liquidity for those wishing to withdraw.
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dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
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Post by dave4 on Apr 10, 2020 17:08:47 GMT
Maybe assetz should create a 120 day limited edition(provision backed)account at 8%. I would happily invest at that rate. As I think would others. This would provide a certain level of liquidity for those wishing to withdraw. 8.75%
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Post by jasonnewman on Apr 10, 2020 17:15:04 GMT
The last few days the balances in the access account have gone up from £75m to £76m but they are not releasing the cash stuartassetzcapitalchrisCan one of you tell us why you are not releasing the cash? |
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 10, 2020 17:16:46 GMT
Maybe assetz should create a 120 day limited edition(provision backed)account at 8%. I would happily invest at that rate. As I think would others. This would provide a certain level of liquidity for those wishing to withdraw. 8.75% A quick calculation on the loan book (Defaulted loans excluded) suggests loans are at an average of 7.5%.
i.e. Total (loan size * interest rate) across all loans, divide by total of all loan sizes.
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