|
|
Post by brightspark on Sept 4, 2020 11:37:14 GMT
Sadly the introduction of the SM rather than adding liquidity; was just admission that the AAs were anything but ! Utter tosh. The Access Accounts were exactly as advertised. That they are in their current state was always highlighted as a risk. Like it or not, for better or worse, and under exceptional circumstances, AC have responded in a way that they felt benefited the majority of lenders whilst balancing the needs of protecting the platform. From my perspective AC haven't acted faultlessly. But my interpretation of what was a 'fault' will vary to those actions with other lenders may regard as faults. Rarely has the phrase 'you can't please all the people all the time' been so fitting. I'm not sure I would call it complete tosh. I have only £500 in the "Easy Access" account and at the current rate of repayment of about £1 per week it is going to take 10 years. As the capital amount decreases so the repayment amount presumably will decrease pro rata so 10 years is perhaps a conservative estimate. I fully accept the Access Accounts came hedged with cautions. Nevertheless i do take a jaundiced view. In my view withdrawals should have been stopped until "normal market conditions" resumed. Trickle amount repayments just provide a daily reminder of being dragged into participation in unchosen loans that were avoided via the MLA. I determined to avoid such a situation having been bitten once in loan 227 via BBA1 - that is why I only have £500 entrapped rather than £5000 or £50,000. It is also why I have disinvested in AC over the previous 6 months. Who is to say that AC will not rewrite the script again some time in the future trapping more of my hard earned savings in some ill-judged lending. I could sell off my £500 at discount and in future I may well do so if I decide to go the whole hog and close down my AC operation. So no not complete tosh.
|
|
iRobot
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,680
Likes: 2,477
|
Post by iRobot on Sept 4, 2020 11:37:21 GMT
That does not rule out short term volatility in discount rates due to liquidity not actual value. There was a great comment on here yesterday along the lines of 'liquidity being super-model thin' but I can't find it now. (Thought it dead-money but might it have been yourself?)
|
|
marky
Posts: 21
Likes: 60
|
Post by marky on Sept 4, 2020 11:40:54 GMT
Regardless of the current understandable unhappiness towards the Access Accounts,ie liquidity, reduction in rates, fees, is it true to say that investors in the AA's have never lost £1 of their capital invested, outside of voluntary discounting to sell ? With FCA requirements for AC to reduce rates to bolster the Provision Fund, if required, and with Stuartassetzcapital posting that they have no plans to do so and that increasing interest rates is the probable next direction for interest rates, does selling at a 10% loss to your capital now make sense if you do not have to ? A future actual 10% loss to the value of the AA funds equate to a loss of £22million in value of the funds from £0 today excluding the PF. I see any discounts to invest @ 9-10% as a buying opportunity that once AA lending restarts, interest rates increase, investment flow improves, in the medium term I predict near-to-par/par will return. That does not rule out short term volatility in discount rates due to liquidity not actual value. HOORAH! Finally a voice of reason! The only people to lose money, so far, on AAs have been those who bought (probably at par) and sold at a discount! Yes - the future might be a new normal. Yes - there might be some untradable loans. Yes - there might be some capital losses. But with a provision fund in place - with interest rates hopefully rising in the future, with the lenders fee removed etc - is it really wise to sell at a 10% discount now? I'm certainly not advocating that everyone becomes a buyer .... But I would have thought the most prudent way forward is to sit tight rather than take a 10% haircut! That's what I'm doing and only time will tell if I'm foolish or wise Marky
|
|
|
|
Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 4, 2020 12:06:29 GMT
Regardless of the current understandable unhappiness towards the Access Accounts,ie liquidity, reduction in rates, fees, is it true to say that investors in the AA's have never lost £1 of their capital invested, outside of voluntary discounting to sell ? With FCA requirements for AC to reduce rates to bolster the Provision Fund, if required, and with Stuartassetzcapital posting that they have no plans to do so and that increasing interest rates is the probable next direction for interest rates, does selling at a 10% loss to your capital now make sense if you do not have to ? A future actual 10% loss to the value of the AA funds equate to a loss of £22million in value of the funds from £0 today excluding the PF. I see any discounts to invest @ 9-10% as a buying opportunity that once AA lending restarts, interest rates increase, investment flow improves, in the medium term I predict near-to-par/par will return. That does not rule out short term volatility in discount rates due to liquidity not actual value. HOORAH! Finally a voice of reason! The only people to lose money, so far, on AAs have been those who bought (probably at par) and sold at a discount! Yes - the future might be a new normal. Yes - there might be some untradable loans. Yes - there might be some capital losses. But with a provision fund in place - with interest rates hopefully rising in the future, with the lenders fee removed etc - is it really wise to sell at a 10% discount now? I'm certainly not advocating that everyone becomes a buyer .... But I would have thought the most prudent way forward is to sit tight rather than take a 10% haircut! That's what I'm doing and only time will tell if I'm foolish or wise Marky Worth selling or not all depends on individual circumstances. As an example, I sold about 60% of my holdings at 7.3% because I needed to reduce my overall exposure to below 10% in P2P. I'd rather make the clean-cut, that get dragged into more mess. It was nothing more than a margin call, with clear sell signals factored in from the interest payment run. (the 90daa attitude also showed the type of company we are dealing with, honestly appaling) If I said 25-50% invested in AC AA's I'd be **** bricks. The level of "oppsies" found on this board is appalling I'll be honest, both from AC themselves and individuals investors overexposing themselves to unbelievable levels. Oh, how my attitude has changed over the past 6 months, starting to feel like Jason haha. Each to his own risk, being in the game for 5 years now, AA's will sooner or later have to dance to the music, you don't' wanna be caught out holding the big bag of "oppsies" when it stops! P2P more than any other industry has forced me to trust and fully concentrate trust/risk management into such a small sector. Unlike when investing in funds or ETFs your spread risk generally keeps you afloat even during crashes/events. You know that in the long term you have an extremely good chance of coming out on top. For P2P, the story has always run differently when amagardon comes. I'm debating that if discount rates did drop to 7% again, I'd probs retire my entire holding. This market is paper thin. As some people "waiting" might find out, you need to be quick if discounts come down and not hesitate. It also means these rates we are seeing today are not high at all, if that music stops unexpectingly the real fun begins...
|
|
dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
Posts: 746
Likes: 654
|
Post by dead-money on Sept 4, 2020 12:36:53 GMT
That does not rule out short term volatility in discount rates due to liquidity not actual value. There was a great comment on here yesterday along the lines of 'liquidity being super-model thin' but I can't find it now. (Thought it dead-money but might it have been yourself?) iRobot Sorry, I deleted that post because the content was erroneous. (Like others I mistook a capital repayment for an unexpected sell).
But yes, if you test the market with £100, £1,000 and £10,000 buy & sells you get a feel for how little depth there is at any given discount point.
|
|
Mikeme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 428 
Likes: 331
|
Post by Mikeme on Sept 4, 2020 12:54:27 GMT
As always I say I guess! The majority by numbers and maybe by value of investors in the AA's are like me not professional investors. They are looking for something better than a reducing value on savings due to interest rates being lower than interest rates. They like me don't have the knowledge to manage their own investments.
We were all happy in normal market conditions, we got a reasonable rate of interest and professionals parked money waiting for better prospects. Then came the end of normal market conditions.
on the 11th March I wrote
Today we are seeing the start of not normal market conditions. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the boardroom of AC. It is in no ones interest to have a run on AC I hope that they are considering :-
A restriction on withdrawals. I would do that today!
A restriction on selling loan parts.
Looking at ways to help borrowers in what will be difficult times.
Making sure unscrupulous borrowers can't take advantage of the current happenings.
My feeling is that if action is taken now our short term pain will be worth the long term gain.Before someone else says it I know I managed to get out the majority in AA's just in time however I still say that first in first out would have been wrong and still agree the way that AC did was better that. 'my toilet roll analogy still stands'. Left to the big boys the smaller needy investor would have got little or nothing.
Only AC know the numbers but I guess the number of investors trying to sell is small and discounts are being driven by buyers who can hold on forever.
Just like governments around the world thought that they were prepared, then when covid came were found to be wanting AC had to react and work in the best interest of all, that is investors big and small and borrowers whose businesses were effectively closed down.
Against the forecasts of some they are still here have a new secondary market from scratch and are starting to lend again. Perfect? No.
Just my opinion
|
|
marky
Posts: 21
Likes: 60
|
Post by marky on Sept 4, 2020 13:16:18 GMT
As always I say I guess! The majority by numbers and maybe by value of investors in the AA's are like me not professional investors. They are looking for something better than a reducing value on savings due to interest rates being lower than interest rates. They like me don't have the knowledge to manage their own investments. We were all happy in normal market conditions, we got a reasonable rate of interest and professionals parked money waiting for better prospects. Then came the end of normal market conditions. on the 11th March I wrote Today we are seeing the start of not normal market conditions. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the boardroom of AC. It is in no ones interest to have a run on AC I hope that they are considering :-
A restriction on withdrawals. I would do that today!
A restriction on selling loan parts.
Looking at ways to help borrowers in what will be difficult times.
Making sure unscrupulous borrowers can't take advantage of the current happenings.
My feeling is that if action is taken now our short term pain will be worth the long term gain.Before someone else says it I know I managed to get out the majority in AA's just in time however I still say that first in first out would have been wrong and still agree the way that AC did was better that. 'my toilet roll analogy still stands'. Left to the big boys the smaller needy investor would have got little or nothing. Only AC know the numbers but I guess the number of investors trying to sell is small and discounts are being driven by buyers who can hold on forever. Just like governments around the world thought that they were prepared, then when covid came were found to be wanting AC had to react and work in the best interest of all, that is investors big and small and borrowers whose businesses were effectively closed down. Against the forecasts of some they are still here have a new secondary market from scratch and are starting to lend again. Perfect? No. Just my opinion If there is no depth at any discount level - then that has to be good news because that implies that most people are content to continue to hold then - rather than bale with a large haircut. Is that the way to read no depth in the SM?
|
|
|
|
Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 4, 2020 13:28:18 GMT
As always I say I guess! The majority by numbers and maybe by value of investors in the AA's are like me not professional investors. They are looking for something better than a reducing value on savings due to interest rates being lower than interest rates. They like me don't have the knowledge to manage their own investments. We were all happy in normal market conditions, we got a reasonable rate of interest and professionals parked money waiting for better prospects. Then came the end of normal market conditions. on the 11th March I wrote Today we are seeing the start of not normal market conditions. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the boardroom of AC. It is in no ones interest to have a run on AC I hope that they are considering :-
A restriction on withdrawals. I would do that today!
A restriction on selling loan parts.
Looking at ways to help borrowers in what will be difficult times.
Making sure unscrupulous borrowers can't take advantage of the current happenings.
My feeling is that if action is taken now our short term pain will be worth the long term gain.Before someone else says it I know I managed to get out the majority in AA's just in time however I still say that first in first out would have been wrong and still agree the way that AC did was better that. 'my toilet roll analogy still stands'. Left to the big boys the smaller needy investor would have got little or nothing. Only AC know the numbers but I guess the number of investors trying to sell is small and discounts are being driven by buyers who can hold on forever. Just like governments around the world thought that they were prepared, then when covid came were found to be wanting AC had to react and work in the best interest of all, that is investors big and small and borrowers whose businesses were effectively closed down. Against the forecasts of some they are still here have a new secondary market from scratch and are starting to lend again. Perfect? No. Just my opinion If there is no depth at any discount level - then that has to be good news because that implies that most people are content to continue to hold then - rather than bale with a large haircut. Is that the way to read no depth in the SM? Sort of, its double edged sword. The lack of depth means that the amount of buyers is quite low otherwise the floor would cave in quickly back to PAR. Make what you want of not enough buyers to bring discounts below double digits... If we can't break such thin ice at this level, I dont' wanna see what happens when AC make another inevitable email of bad news/unexpected.
|
|
ian
Posts: 342
Likes: 226
|
Post by ian on Sept 4, 2020 13:32:13 GMT
The whole secondary market is a sham. Nobody in their right mind should hang on to investments given they can immediately buy back in at a discount.
For the life in me I can not comprehend how AC thought this would benefit investors.
They made great play of investors gaming the market & know turned the whole platform into to a game which nobody quite understands the rules.
|
|
rscal
Posts: 985
Likes: 537
|
Post by rscal on Sept 4, 2020 13:39:05 GMT
The whole secondary market is a sham. Nobody in their right mind should hang on to investments given they can immediately buy back in at a discount. For the life in me I can not comprehend how AC thought this would benefit investors. They made great play of investors gaming the market & know turned the whole platform into to a game which nobody quite understands the rules. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!
|
|
ian
Posts: 342
Likes: 226
|
Post by ian on Sept 4, 2020 13:40:44 GMT
Regardless of the current understandable unhappiness towards the Access Accounts,ie liquidity, reduction in rates, fees, is it true to say that investors in the AA's have never lost £1 of their capital invested, outside of voluntary discounting to sell ? . Nor has anyone participating in the GBBAs or Lendy for that matter. The fact nothing has happen as yet gives little reassurance.
|
|
ian
Posts: 342
Likes: 226
|
Post by ian on Sept 4, 2020 13:51:45 GMT
Sadly the introduction of the SM rather than adding liquidity; was just admission that the AAs were anything but ! Utter tosh. The Access Accounts were exactly as advertised. That they are in their current state was always highlighted as a risk. Like it or not, for better or worse, and under exceptional circumstances, AC have responded in a way that they felt benefited the majority of lenders whilst balancing the needs of protecting the platform. From my perspective AC haven't acted faultlessly. But my interpretation of what was a 'fault' will vary to those actions with other lenders may regard as faults. Rarely has the phrase 'you can't please all the people all the time' been so fitting. A product - marketed as a Term Account that is now a traded instrument with a mixture or default debt/valid loans & cash!! Yes they’ve behaved faultlessly 😂😂 they deserve everything that’s coming their way.
|
|
iRobot
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,680
Likes: 2,477
|
Post by iRobot on Sept 4, 2020 14:23:38 GMT
Utter tosh. The Access Accounts were exactly as advertised. That they are in their current state was always highlighted as a risk. Like it or not, for better or worse, and under exceptional circumstances, AC have responded in a way that they felt benefited the majority of lenders whilst balancing the needs of protecting the platform. From my perspective AC haven't acted faultlessly. But my interpretation of what was a 'fault' will vary to those actions with other lenders may regard as faults. Rarely has the phrase 'you can't please all the people all the time' been so fitting. A product - marketed as a Term Account that is now a traded instrument with a mixture or default debt/valid loans & cash!! Yes they’ve behaved faultlessly 😂😂 they deserve everything that’s coming their way. You need to read things more carefully - it might save you from getting into situations you wish you hadn't.
|
|
|
|
Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 4, 2020 14:48:56 GMT
Sort of, its double edged sword. The lack of depth means that the amount of buyers is quite low otherwise the floor would cave in quickly back to PAR. Make what you want of not enough buyers to bring discounts below double digits... If we can't break such thin ice at this level, I dont' wanna see what happens when AC make another inevitable email of bad news/unexpected. With the amount of pessimism and forecasts of more inevitable bad AA news, it is a wonder why the discounts to sell are not larger than present, but when you consider that £215 million is invested in the Access Accounts and I would be surprised if the total amount invested by posters on this forum is possibly a mere 1-2% of that total, going by posts, it is not a surprise. A small number of buyers and sellers is distorting any true, realistic value in AA investments. Imagine if the inevitable bad news did not materialised and instead some positive AA news on rates, lending, fees etc. Apart from really annoying and upsetting some doom mongers, this 'could' attract buyers to mop up the small amount of SM sellers with rates falling accordingly in a 'short' period of time. The lack of data about the AA's is what is distorting is true value, and is reflecting either a inflated or deflated discount currently (Who knows what, thats the entire point) Along side the fact that: What is future of AA's FCA future of AA's
|
|
puddleduck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 537
Likes: 489
|
Post by puddleduck on Sept 4, 2020 14:56:46 GMT
With the amount of pessimism and forecasts of more inevitable bad AA news, it is a wonder why the discounts to sell are not larger than present, but when you consider that £215 million is invested in the Access Accounts and I would be surprised if the total amount invested by posters on this forum is possibly a mere 1-2% of that total, going by posts, it is not a surprise. A small number of buyers and sellers is distorting any true, realistic value in AA investments. Imagine if the inevitable bad news did not materialised and instead some positive AA news on rates, lending, fees etc. Apart from really annoying and upsetting some doom mongers, this 'could' attract buyers to mop up the small amount of SM sellers with rates falling accordingly in a 'short' period of time. The lack of data about the AA's is what is distorting is true value, and is reflecting either a inflated or deflated discount currently (Who knows what, thats the entire point) Along side the fact that: What is future of AA's FCA future of AA's Sentiment has turned against P2P, and in particular Access Accounts. I don't think lack of data is the problem here - it's a lack of confidence in P2P as whole.
|
|
