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Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 4, 2020 15:05:38 GMT
The lack of data about the AA's is what is distorting is true value, and is reflecting either a inflated or deflated discount currently (Who knows what, thats the entire point) Along side the fact that: What is future of AA's FCA future of AA's Sentiment has turned against P2P, and in particular Access Accounts. I don't think lack of data is the problem here - it's a lack of confidence in P2P as whole. Yes, certainly. No doubt the lack of some transparency isn't helping that fact.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Sept 4, 2020 16:00:44 GMT
The lack of data about the AA's is what is distorting is true value, and is reflecting either a inflated or deflated discount currently (Who knows what, thats the entire point) Along side the fact that: What is future of AA's FCA future of AA's Sentiment has turned against P2P, and in particular Access Accounts. I don't think lack of data is the problem here - it's a lack of confidence in P2P as whole. Saying "THE problem" implies there is just one - but there are multiple problems. Just focusing on one misses the point, I think. The Stock Market hasn't exactly been booming for the last few months, either, and that has precisely nothing to do with P2P - but all the causes of that lack of confidence apply here too. On top of that, P2P has its own problems, for sure - prominent among them is that a lot of retail investors didn't really appreciate what they were buying. Whether that's due to mis-selling or mis-buying is irrelevant - the outcome is that there are a lot of participants in the market who aren't sure what to do. More specifically, access-type accounts are always going to struggle when there are bad market conditions and liquidity thins out. Then, and only then, do we come to the AC AAs ... and the relevance of the lack of data, which makes it very hard to put a proper value on the secondary market, which means that buyers are thin and prices unstable. Improved data from AC isn't going to make Covid or other macroeconomic issues go away, but it would allow buyers and sellers to be a lot more confident about where a fair price lies. At the moment we're mostly just guessing.
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puddleduck
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Post by puddleduck on Sept 4, 2020 16:17:41 GMT
Specifically, what do you want to see from 'improved data'? As I said further up, I really don't see data (or lackoff) being responsible for the issue we are in now. It's all very well talking in soundbites about 'improved data' but it's pretty nebulous.
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Post by bradley02 on Sept 4, 2020 16:30:58 GMT
Specifically, what do you want to see from 'improved data'? As I said further up, I really don't see data (or lackoff) being responsible for the issue we are in now. It's all very well talking in soundbites about 'improved data' but it's pretty nebulous. Useful data would be the provision of figures on how much is queued for withdrawal, value of discounted units for sale at each % rate and par
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puddleduck
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Post by puddleduck on Sept 4, 2020 16:37:12 GMT
Specifically, what do you want to see from 'improved data'? As I said further up, I really don't see data (or lackoff) being responsible for the issue we are in now. It's all very well talking in soundbites about 'improved data' but it's pretty nebulous. Useful data would be the provision of figures on how much is queued for withdrawal, value of discounted units for sale at each % rate and par I very much doubt you'll ever see the figures for how much is queued for withdrawal - publishing this can only be counter productive I would think. I'd be surprised to see % rate and par published either - again, publishing this could be counterproductive, and induce panic discounting to queue jump. I understand why you want this data - but I don't think you'll get it.
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Post by bradley02 on Sept 4, 2020 16:38:23 GMT
With the amount of pessimism and forecasts of more inevitable bad AA news, it is a wonder why the discounts to sell are not larger than present, but when you consider that £215 million is invested in the Access Accounts and I would be surprised if the total amount invested by posters on this forum is possibly a mere 1-2% of that total, going by posts, it is not a surprise. A small number of buyers and sellers is distorting any true, realistic value in AA investments. Imagine if the inevitable bad news did not materialised and instead some positive AA news on rates, lending, fees etc. Apart from really annoying and upsetting some doom mongers, this 'could' attract buyers to mop up the small amount of SM sellers with rates falling accordingly in a 'short' period of time. The lack of data about the AA's is what is distorting is true value, and is reflecting either a inflated or deflated discount currently (Who knows what, thats the entire point) Along side the fact that: What is future of AA's FCA future of AA's I agree Harland, useful data such as figures on how much is queued for withdrawal, depth and value of discounted units for sale or investment at each % rate and par would give AA investors some perspective at least and assist all investors. This data should be easy to provide.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 4, 2020 17:13:49 GMT
Useful data would be the provision of figures on how much is queued for withdrawal, value of discounted units for sale at each % rate and par I very much doubt you'll ever see the figures for how much is queued for withdrawal - publishing this can only be counter productive I would think. I'd be surprised to see % rate and par published either - again, publishing this could be counterproductive, and induce panic discounting to queue jump. I understand why you want this data - but I don't think you'll get it. I sold out because of concern about this, if they aren't showing it, its clearly bad, just how bad is the question. You really don't wanna hear this on the market.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Sept 4, 2020 17:36:25 GMT
Useful data would be the provision of figures on how much is queued for withdrawal, value of discounted units for sale at each % rate and par I very much doubt you'll ever see the figures for how much is queued for withdrawal - publishing this can only be counter productive I would think. I'd be surprised to see % rate and par published either - again, publishing this could be counterproductive, and induce panic discounting to queue jump. I understand why you want this data - but I don't think you'll get it. I tend to agree that AC will, properly, want to withhold a lot of detail about the queues, although I think that they could publish information about trends in the actual discount level and volumes of sales. What I was thinking of, however, was data about what's inside the AAs so that market participants could have a decent shot at working out what a £1 holding is really worth. There is a lot of speculation on these boards about the % of the portfolio that is troubled in one way or another - I'd like to see some hard facts. Also information about the PF, both ringfenced and otherwise. If, hypothetically, 98% of the portfolio is performing well and/or fully covered by ringfenced PF, then that tells us something about the expected value of that £1. But at the moment we have only random gleanings that people have, with varying degrees of precision, managed to extract from what they can see.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Sept 4, 2020 17:52:10 GMT
THEY KNOW SOMETHING WE DON'T! I sold out because of concern about this, if they aren't showing it, its clearly bad, just how bad is the question. You really don't wanna hear this on the market. 'OR' could it just not be that bad and we are too focused on the Mouse and not the Elephant in the room..... GENUINE SELL TEST YESTERDAY. My colleague's AA SM sell 'test' yesterday £100,000. (90% discount for research/data ) £69k available for immediate sale @ 12.96 AND set a sale instruction for £31k @ 90% discount... NO FUNDS AVAILABLE TO BUY AT 90% DISCOUNT IMMEDIATELY. A few buyers and sellers does not make a SM market. Harland is right. Data is key to reality and restful sleep and informed decisions on to twist, fold or hold.
Damm, I should have been more ambitous with my buy orders at 12%, 15%, 20%. I'll stick a few on at 90% now in case of sticky fingers 
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upperdeane
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Post by upperdeane on Sept 4, 2020 18:26:10 GMT
Hi bradley02If I'm understanding you correctly, are you saying a total of only £69k was up for sale... all orders combined at any discount rate? I must be misunderstanding because I know for sure that more than that is currently up for sale. Could you clarify please as I must be misunderstanding. Cheers |
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Sept 4, 2020 18:53:14 GMT
Hi bradley02 If I'm understanding you correctly, are you saying a total of only £69k was up for sale... all orders combined at any discount rate? I must be misunderstanding because I know for sure that more than that is currently up for sale. Could you clarify please as I must be misunderstanding. Cheers No, he was looking to sell £100K and could only find buyers for £69K of that at any price.
But it's a live market so buyers and sellers are being matched constantly, IF the price is right.
There's undoubtly a few millions set for withdrawal at par or low digit discounts, but any buyer will firstly and quickly match with the deeper discount sellers.
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Post by dabeztstuff on Sept 4, 2020 20:02:09 GMT
Is it true only 2% of accounts have sold on the secondary market ?
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Sept 4, 2020 20:27:19 GMT
Is it true only 2% of accounts have sold on the secondary market ? 2% of what? All accounts? Those that are wanting to sell? (Including or excluding those in 'holding' waiting for their notice period to expire?) What's the source of this 'only 2% have sold'? (And therefor possibly the context.)
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Post by james1100 on Sept 5, 2020 8:19:07 GMT
I very much doubt you'll ever see the figures for how much is queued for withdrawal - publishing this can only be counter productive I would think. I'd be surprised to see % rate and par published either - again, publishing this could be counterproductive, and induce panic discounting to queue jump. I understand why you want this data - but I don't think you'll get it. I tend to agree that AC will, properly, want to withhold a lot of detail about the queues, although I think that they could publish information about trends in the actual discount level and volumes of sales. What I was thinking of, however, was data about what's inside the AAs so that market participants could have a decent shot at working out what a £1 holding is really worth. There is a lot of speculation on these boards about the % of the portfolio that is troubled in one way or another - I'd like to see some hard facts. Also information about the PF, both ringfenced and otherwise. If, hypothetically, 98% of the portfolio is performing well and/or fully covered by ringfenced PF, then that tells us something about the expected value of that £1. But at the moment we have only random gleanings that people have, with varying degrees of precision, managed to extract from what they can see. Analysing my ISA QAA I can see the following (which is hopefully not a random gleaning!) a. Published value 5255.42
b. Loan value 4676.67
c. Therefore Cash a-b 578.75
d. My amount in Access adapted for the Capital Valuation factor 4564.45 We can debate the accuracy of the Capital Valuations til the cows come home but with the facts we have that suggests that my loan holdings are valued at 97.6% of the 'face' value I have been buying at 11% discount in recent days and feel that gives me some contingency for worsening situations in the future. Seeing my notice accounts with the junior banks have slashed their rates literally in half from 1.6% to 0.8% then the risk reward seems ok. But my crystal ball is no brighter than anyone elses!
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Sept 5, 2020 8:47:14 GMT
As a big fan of free markets I am quite disappointed that the platform doesn't let me put a buy/sell instruction with a 100% discount! What about negative discounts has anyone tried to put a minus sign to see what happens? Maybe you get some money credited!!  Nope, offering to sell at a premium isn't allowed. Although I'd like to know the circumstance where it would be worth buying into the Access Accounts at a premium
NB Within the Manual Lending Account, selling a loan at a premium has never been possible, although it would make sense in some situations. (But that's a very different animal)
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