dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Sept 5, 2020 8:55:23 GMT
I tend to agree that AC will, properly, want to withhold a lot of detail about the queues, although I think that they could publish information about trends in the actual discount level and volumes of sales. What I was thinking of, however, was data about what's inside the AAs so that market participants could have a decent shot at working out what a £1 holding is really worth. There is a lot of speculation on these boards about the % of the portfolio that is troubled in one way or another - I'd like to see some hard facts. Also information about the PF, both ringfenced and otherwise. If, hypothetically, 98% of the portfolio is performing well and/or fully covered by ringfenced PF, then that tells us something about the expected value of that £1. But at the moment we have only random gleanings that people have, with varying degrees of precision, managed to extract from what they can see. Analysing my ISA QAA I can see the following (which is hopefully not a random gleaning!) a. Published value 5255.42
b. Loan value 4676.67
c. Therefore Cash a-b 578.75
d. My amount in Access adapted for the Capital Valuation factor 4564.45 We can debate the accuracy of the Capital Valuations til the cows come home but with the facts we have that suggests that my loan holdings are valued at 97.6% of the 'face' value I have been buying at 11% discount in recent days and feel that gives me some contingency for worsening situations in the future. Seeing my notice accounts with the junior banks have slashed their rates literally in half from 1.6% to 0.8% then the risk reward seems ok. But my crystal ball is no brighter than anyone elses! Some of the cash is committed to future tranche drawdowns, so it's not all free float. Then there's the defaulted and suspended loans, it's unknown how much has cash ringfenced against that, how much has provision fund allocated and what's left as uncovered. NB I'm still unclear as to whether AC's much vaunted 'ringfencing' and provision fund is in that cash float, or somewhere separate outside the Access Account.
If AC wants to regain lender confidence they need to start publishing these numbers on a quarterly basis.
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johni
Member of DD Central
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Post by johni on Sept 5, 2020 8:59:19 GMT
I am sure that the worst as yet to be announced.... radio silence before the storm... I suppose that in a wind-up scenario the SM would be removed or what do you guys think? So another new poster who is very vocal about the end of Assetz where is your proof? What radio silence? As a loan misses a payment or runs into trouble we are made aware. There are lender votes going on. We have been told protection fund may not cover all future losses in the short term and how this will be flagged. People are exiting at big discounts and some appear to be encouraging this. Is this a deliberate act to push up the discount with false information for their gain. If so I hope Assetz will look at this.
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Sept 5, 2020 9:22:51 GMT
'OR' could it just not be that bad and we are too focused on the Mouse and not the Elephant in the room..... GENUINE SELL TEST YESTERDAY. My colleague's AA SM sell 'test' yesterday £100,000. (90% discount for research/data ) £69k available for immediate sale @ 12.96 AND set a sale instruction for £31k @ 90% discount... NO FUNDS AVAILABLE TO BUY AT 90% DISCOUNT IMMEDIATELY. A few buyers and sellers does not make a SM market. Harland is right. Data is key to reality and restful sleep and informed decisions on to twist, fold or hold.
Damm, I should have been more ambitous with my buy orders at 12%, 15%, 20%. I'll stick a few on at 90% now in case of sticky fingers 
The liquidity of the SM appears to have fallen off substantially if that is all there is to the depth of the market. When it was first launched I managed to sell several hundred £k at the rate of £25k - £75k per day at discounts between 5% and 7%. It took a couple of weeks but the liquidity was generally there if you were a bit patient. If most of the bids have now been exhausted then it could get ugly as I am pretty sure the exit queue is a substantial multiple of the "£6 million traded" number that AC released.
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iRobot
Member of DD Central
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Post by iRobot on Sept 5, 2020 9:29:50 GMT
I am sure that the worst as yet to be announced.... radio silence before the storm... I suppose that in a wind-up scenario the SM would be removed or what do you guys think? So another new poster who is very vocal about the end of Assetz where is your proof? What radio silence? As a loan misses a payment or runs into trouble we are made aware. There are lender votes going on. We have been told protection fund may not cover all future losses in the short term and how this will be flagged. People are exiting at big discounts and some appear to be encouraging this. Is this a deliberate act to push up the discount with false information for their gain. If so I hope Assetz will look at this. Took the words out of my mouth johni . Account created day after SM launches (second account, Admin ?) and from the handful of posts so far, this sticks out: " Discount is at 10% it's shopping time again  " and a couple more like it. Well, I guess the poster has at least adequately laid their intentions out for all to see. Although, wouldn't their intelligence at being buyers given such doomsday pronouncements be called into question? Perhaps they are 'flippers' - more reason to attempt to ramp up the FUD factor. Hopefully lenders needing to exit in the near term aren't caught up in what seems to be a desire to stoke up the levels of Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt for personal gain. Also agree on the Assetz comment so tagging stuartassetzcapital & chris - an unambiguous set of stats showing a complete Marketplace overview would go a long way to knocking this kind of behaviour on the head.
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Sept 5, 2020 9:47:47 GMT
I am sure that the worst as yet to be announced.... radio silence before the storm... I suppose that in a wind-up scenario the SM would be removed or what do you guys think? So another new poster who is very vocal about the end of Assetz where is your proof? What radio silence? As a loan misses a payment or runs into trouble we are made aware. There are lender votes going on. We have been told protection fund may not cover all future losses in the short term and how this will be flagged. People are exiting at big discounts and some appear to be encouraging this. Is this a deliberate act to push up the discount with false information for their gain. If so I hope Assetz will look at this. Yes, we townies tend to think of wood pigeons as friendly birds, though a bit noisy and always needing feeding. But if you try to grow peas then you will have a different view of the bird. I think that the mods should enforce a strict correlation between names/avatars and the nature/intention of the poster - which in this case is well posted and carnivorous. So I think the feathers must be changed to those of some species of vulture.
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puddleduck
Member of DD Central
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Post by puddleduck on Sept 5, 2020 9:51:16 GMT
I had a buy order at 20% discount but that never got a sniff.
There has been at least 30k available at the 9%+ for the last week (9.59% at the time of this post). I've not seen much over 10%, 11.5% very briefly seems to be the high water mark.
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Post by korky on Sept 5, 2020 10:09:12 GMT
Damm, I should have been more ambitous with my buy orders at 12%, 15%, 20%. I'll stick a few on at 90% now in case of sticky fingers
The liquidity of the SM appears to have fallen off substantially if that is all there is to the depth of the market. When it was first launched I managed to sell several hundred £k at the rate of £25k - £75k per day at discounts between 5% and 7%. It took a couple of weeks but the liquidity was generally there if you were a bit patient. If most of the bids have now been exhausted then it could get ugly as I am pretty sure the exit queue is a substantial multiple of the "£6 million traded" number that AC released. Just tested the liquidity, can only sell 2k below 11.8. 
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Sept 5, 2020 10:13:23 GMT
The liquidity of the SM appears to have fallen off substantially if that is all there is to the depth of the market. When it was first launched I managed to sell several hundred £k at the rate of £25k - £75k per day at discounts between 5% and 7%. It took a couple of weeks but the liquidity was generally there if you were a bit patient. If most of the bids have now been exhausted then it could get ugly as I am pretty sure the exit queue is a substantial multiple of the "£6 million traded" number that AC released. Just tested the liquidity, can only sell 2k below 11.8. Odd, I get "At present, based on current invest instructions, you could immediately sell £3,999.99 at a discount of 11.04% and receive £3,558.14 of cash" on both the ISA and standard accounts.
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Post by honda2ner on Sept 5, 2020 10:18:09 GMT
Damm, I should have been more ambitous with my buy orders at 12%, 15%, 20%. I'll stick a few on at 90% now in case of sticky fingers
The liquidity of the SM appears to have fallen off substantially if that is all there is to the depth of the market. When it was first launched I managed to sell several hundred £k at the rate of £25k - £75k per day at discounts between 5% and 7%. It took a couple of weeks but the liquidity was generally there if you were a bit patient. If most of the bids have now been exhausted then it could get ugly as I am pretty sure the exit queue is a substantial multiple of the "£6 million traded" number that AC released. This test is interesting but only shows the "buy" side of the market (£69k of buy orders). To complete the picture we need someone that is very brave and careful to offer (but not complete or there might be a bit of swearing) a buy order for £500k at 0.1% discount to show the "sell" side of the market. Before we have that data any estimates of liquidity are just wild guesses that are useless. Anyone rich enough and brave enough? Or AC could just tell us... Nah, that would be too sensible.
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Post by korky on Sept 5, 2020 10:23:21 GMT
Just tested the liquidity, can only sell 2k below 11.8. Odd, I get "At present, based on current invest instructions, you could immediately sell £3,999.99 at a discount of 11.04% and receive £3,558.14 of cash" on both the ISA and standard accounts. Just tested again, up to 11.7%, only 2233 available at 10.45%.
Edit : But selling 4k, I also get 11%.
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Post by davee39 on Sept 5, 2020 10:37:41 GMT
There is a lot of gaming going on here.
I sense that buyers are looking to push the discount above 12%, with the aim of a quick flip.
Intending sellers will be kicking themselves for not cashing out at the 5.3 - 6% lows (probably waiting for 5%), and are finding
10% hard to swallow.
Loan data is clearly available for the account, and it is possible to view upcoming repayments, defaults, downgraded loans
and cash balances.
My view, (as a seller), is that since the current portfolio is protected by the pf, the discount needs to reflect future unprotected
downgrades. A finger in the air guess suggests that 5% discount would not be unreasonable, tempered by the 3.75% yield.
Currently about half of redemptions appear to be getting distributed, allowing a funds to build up for new tranches and new loans.
The Seedrs prospectus was bullish about future business growth, I hope that will be reflected in resumed lending.
I expect a move to lock in funds through a new bonus offer, a 1% bonus on the increase in balances over the next 6 months would
encourage buyers, reduce withdrawals and lower the discount.
Buyers : Pay attention, I am trying to move the market here, bid now while discounts last!
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Mikeme
Member of DD Central
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Post by Mikeme on Sept 5, 2020 10:50:19 GMT
There is a lot of gaming going on here. I sense that buyers are looking to push the discount above 12%, with the aim of a quick flip. Intending sellers will be kicking themselves for not cashing out at the 5.3 - 6% lows (probably waiting for 5%), and are finding 10% hard to swallow. Loan data is clearly available for the account, and it is possible to view upcoming repayments, defaults, downgraded loans and cash balances. My view, (as a seller), is that since the current portfolio is protected by the pf, the discount needs to reflect future unprotected downgrades. A finger in the air guess suggests that 5% discount would not be unreasonable, tempered by the 3.75% yield. Currently about half of redemptions appear to be getting distributed, allowing a funds to build up for new tranches and new loans. The Seedrs prospectus was bullish about future business growth, I hope that will be reflected in resumed lending. I expect a move to lock in funds through a new bonus offer, a 1% bonus on the increase in balances over the next 6 months would encourage buyers, reduce withdrawals and lower the discount. Buyers : Pay attention, I am trying to move the market here, bid now while discounts last! Thank for explaining so well. The vultures are trying to instil panic.
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puddleduck
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Post by puddleduck on Sept 5, 2020 11:18:43 GMT
I am sure that the worst as yet to be announced.... radio silence before the storm... I suppose that in a wind-up scenario the SM would be removed or what do you guys think? I think the chances of wind up are vanishingly small. AC are one of the few P2P companies I think we will still see trading a few years down the line. I think they will attempt an IPO at some point - if the well hasn't been too poisoned by the FC float debacle and the Ratesetter fire sale.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 5, 2020 11:52:07 GMT
Chance of wind up are very small, really in my oppuion non-existant. I'm not sure the fear is about that, clearly the discount rates are very paper thin so it is somewhat ambigious.
However for all the defence of AC ect, one question is a elephant in the room that hasnt' been answered yet. What are the future of the AA's.
It's all very well having it at a discount, but the liqudity is quickly drying up and I don't see why it would return anytime soon. (no loans locked, yet)
Only people who will be investing right now other than a few vulture flippers would be those intending on holding this product for a long term view (at least 2 years, ideally 3+ years). In order for investors to dive into that, the future of the AA's is critical.
It is currently impossible to exit from the AA's without a discount (you simply cannot wind down your account, I have just under £100 in one account, and its repaying 0.0007 ect like some sort of mockery.)
On top of that, we have a sort withdrawal feedback loop going on, if you invest any big amount in the AA's, you need to set a withdrawal at PAR so that you can get your cash to, reinvest? Maybe only smart investors are doing this, but I don't know. Think others here stated this, not sure how you would combat this anyway.
Personally, I am not sure how they can continue to sell this product after this massive traffic jam so to speak. It was a issue waiting to happen from sheepish investors. I'm also gonna say one word, FCA.
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puddleduck
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Post by puddleduck on Sept 5, 2020 12:04:51 GMT
What are the future of the AA's. I think we will (or should) see the introduction fixed term accounts ie 1 year, 3 year, 5 year with varying rates - I think Kuflink are along the right lines, they offer black box accounts with fixed end points. Its only P2P businesses that have offered 'Access' - i.e. get your money back before the end of the underlying loans, that have got into difficulties since the Covid induced liquidity issue - Loanpad being the notable exception. I really don't see the Access Accounts as having a future - once bitten, twice shy - and I think they will go the way of PSA, GBBA etc etc - I'm actually surprised these are still open for new investment, even with the 'under normal market conditions' caveat
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