Mikeme
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Post by Mikeme on Sept 6, 2020 15:54:55 GMT
It is interesting how the current discount level is set by acutally only a very few investors.
Seems like most people are holding on / have lower discount levels set.
I just cant see them changing the access acounts. Once normal market conditions resume, liquidity will resume.
I can't see the point of selling out at an outrageous discount when, in reality, nothing has really changed. I invested in AC realising it wasn't a totally liquid investment but I wanted the steady income stream from monthly interest. Despite a world pandemic - I've continued to receive my income so what's not to like about that! I just hope - over the longer term - the platform survives and my capital doesn't get wiped out! Marky I'm with you, maybe a name change. Most of those complaining were using the accounts to park money. Not wanting to name but one recently said he'd sold £100's K at a discount to get out. There will be many wanting to invest again after this has passed and will want a managed as it were investment beating the banks. Fear is still a big factor.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 6, 2020 16:13:51 GMT
It is interesting how the current discount level is set by acutally only a very few investors.
Seems like most people are holding on / have lower discount levels set.
I just cant see them changing the access acounts. Once normal market conditions resume, liquidity will resume.
I can't see the point of selling out at an outrageous discount when, in reality, nothing has really changed. Just because a situation is catered for within platform T's and C's does not, in my view, mean nothing has changed. By that logic, nothing has changed at Growth Street either. They've merely enacted a Resolution Event as per the T's and C's. The change at Assetz is that a hypothetical scenario whereby the provision fund has become inadequate to cover forecast losses necessitating locking-in of loans, has just become the actual base case. The QAA has just become the new GBBA. That, for my money, is a pretty substantial change. Now, Assetz have suggested that the only reason this is necessary is due to FCA guidance preventing them from taking account of uncertain forecast PF income. I'd like to believe that this income would be sufficient for all to be ok, but I'd first like to understand what their forecasts actually are - including their predictions of defaults/recoveries for currently unimpaired loans, in collated form. If true, there has to be a point at which the PF income exceeds the costs and everything becomes unlocked again to track against. As it is, we have no inkling when that might be - if ever. Until then, we are floating along on a battered little boat in a sea of icebergs without a map, with a concrete promise that we're going to be paying for the damage immediately if we hit any new ones, and with some vague mutterings from the captain that there are probably a few bits of sticky plaster and tins of paint somewhere in the hold to make good in the long run. In the circumstances, I'd say the sort of ranges of discounts we've seen recently seem fair. If anyone disagrees, they can of course start hoovering it up (some already have) and reap the reward.
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puddleduck
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Post by puddleduck on Sept 6, 2020 16:14:13 GMT
I can't see the point of selling out at an outrageous discount when, in reality, nothing has really changed. I invested in AC realising it wasn't a totally liquid investment but I wanted the steady income stream from monthly interest. Despite a world pandemic - I've continued to receive my income so what's not to like about that! I just hope - over the longer term - the platform survives and my capital doesn't get wiped out! Marky I'm with you, maybe a name change. Most of those complaining were using the accounts to park money. Not wanting to name but one recently said he'd sold £100's K at a discount to get out. There will be many wanting to invest again after this has passed and will want a managed as it were investment beating the banks. Fear is still a big factor. I think you are both being very naive if you think nothing has changed. -We've had the liquidity run -Interest rate drops on all Access Accounts, 1.65% in the case of 90DAA -Assetz have informed us the Provision Fund ringfencing is running out, leading to potentially untradeable Access Account loan holdings -We've had lender fee introductions -Assetz have pretty much ceased lending for 6 months -We've had a Pro-rata withdrawal queue put in place -Normal market conditions ceased almost 6 months ago. It's fine to be bull-ish and optimist about Assetz Capital but to state nothing has changed is borderline lunacy.
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marky
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Post by marky on Sept 6, 2020 16:29:58 GMT
I'm with you, maybe a name change. Most of those complaining were using the accounts to park money. Not wanting to name but one recently said he'd sold £100's K at a discount to get out. There will be many wanting to invest again after this has passed and will want a managed as it were investment beating the banks. Fear is still a big factor. I think you are both being very naive if you think nothing has changed. -We've had the liquidity run -Interest rate drops on all Access Accounts, 1.65% in the case of 90DAA -Assetz have informed us the Provision Fund ringfencing is running out, leading to potentially untradeable Access Account loan holdings -We've had lender fee introductions -Assetz have pretty much ceased lending for 6 months -We've had a Pro-rata withdrawal queue put in place -Normal market conditions ceased almost 6 months ago. It's fine to be bull-ish and optimist about Assetz Capital but to state nothing has changed is borderline lunacy. I don't particularly disagree with any of your comments above (except I'm not a borderline lunatic) ... My point was that all the things you've highlighted are to be expected during a global pandemic and were 'known knowns' or certainly 'expected knowns'. The platform continues to deliver me, albeit a slightly reduced, income whereas my shares have stopped paying me dividends. The banks have virtually stopped paying me any interest. The panic in the SM market is being caused by a few savvy investors trying to drive the market down so that they can pick up units at a greater discount but there doesn't appear to be much depth to this panic! The silent, majority, are sitting tight and continuing to take the income. I do have faith that the action taken by AC during these unprecedented times should secure the platform and my investment for the future. My only (continued) gripe is that we were ROBBED of the 5.75% interest that was payable on the 90DAA for August .... I still hope Stuart will do the right thing (and authorise the payment) but as time moves on - I fear my comments are falling on deaf ears! Diddling your investors of promised interest payments (using smoke and mirrors to try and cover the deception) is not a good look and does not cast AC in the best light.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 6, 2020 17:07:43 GMT
I think you are both being very naive if you think nothing has changed. -We've had the liquidity run -Interest rate drops on all Access Accounts, 1.65% in the case of 90DAA -Assetz have informed us the Provision Fund ringfencing is running out, leading to potentially untradeable Access Account loan holdings -We've had lender fee introductions -Assetz have pretty much ceased lending for 6 months -We've had a Pro-rata withdrawal queue put in place -Normal market conditions ceased almost 6 months ago. It's fine to be bull-ish and optimist about Assetz Capital but to state nothing has changed is borderline lunacy. I don't particularly disagree with any of your comments above (except I'm not a borderline lunatic) ... My point was that all the things you've highlighted are to be expected during a global pandemic and were 'known knowns' or certainly 'expected knowns'. The platform continues to deliver me, albeit a slightly reduced, income whereas my shares have stopped paying me dividends. The banks have virtually stopped paying me any interest. The panic in the SM market is being caused by a few savvy investors trying to drive the market down so that they can pick up units at a greater discount but there doesn't appear to be much depth to this panic! The silent, majority, are sitting tight and continuing to take the income. I do have faith that the action taken by AC during these unprecedented times should secure the platform and my investment for the future. My only (continued) gripe is that we were ROBBED of the 5.75% interest that was payable on the 90DAA for August .... I still hope Stuart will do the right thing (and authorise the payment) but as time moves on - I fear my comments are falling on deaf ears! Diddling your investors of promised interest payments (using smoke and mirrors to try and cover the deception) is not a good look and does not cast AC in the best light. People exiting or reducing holdings right now, will either be smart money before the storm or will have just paid a pretty heavy wrist slap if things really went back to goldilocks land. I've been in P2P and I've kept repeating this again and again recently, its the Wild West. There is a substantial lack of information about the SM to be certain where it stands. From our view the depth is shallow indeed, if not paper thin at the current highest discount rates. But nobody on this board has any idea how large the discounts maybe for those discounting 5% and below, it could be in the millions, we don't know. What is certain, is that paper thin discounts are not being scooped up to drive discounts anywhere close to pre-email levels about the PF. (if I can use that term, lol) The potential lockin of loans is a massive change to the AC operational strategy. You can't use paper discounts as only defence its a double edge sword. It tells us that there aren't many buyers willing to drive it down. What happens when *** hits the fan with the PF lockins? What investors who are holding down should be aware of is, if we hit any of those icebergs, the discounts could grow greater depth and consolidate at these 8-10% levels we are seeing recently, whilst the peak discounts shoot for the moon from panic. Think about it this way, 5.5-6% was previously the paper thin discount margin, that has now moved to 8-10%, in theory consolidating the 5.5-6% as a resistance point with most likely a larger amount of investors already got their discounts set to this number. Purely speculation as we have no data, as AC don't provide this.If you're not looking to exit I guess non of this matters, until its too late of course if things really did go GBBA style for QAA.
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Post by dabeztstuff on Sept 6, 2020 18:07:45 GMT
AC is getting income from CBILS loans and the lender fee. I think the chance of them not pulling through this downturn are low.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Sept 6, 2020 18:21:39 GMT
AC is getting income from CBILS loans and the lender fee. I think the chance of them not pulling through this downturn are low.
Whilst Assetz Capital the company might survive, the Access Accounts in their current and much changed form might not. 
I can't help but feel that at the first sniff of a Zombie future, (as has occurred with the other black box accounts), the punters will be stampeding for the exit at almost any price. (An option we didn't have and still don't with PSA, GEA, GBBA)
More transparency, less doublespeak and actual facts & figures from AC would go a long way to calm the fears.
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Post by dabeztstuff on Sept 6, 2020 18:55:22 GMT
Also doesn't the PF work differently in the Access Acounts vs GBBA?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2020 18:56:08 GMT
A bet/investment on the various AA accounts isn't just a bet on the health of the loanbook, its also a bet on the health of the platform itself.
Unless you think that a platform wind-down (orderly or otherwise) would have zero impact on the loanbook. Which would be a very bold bet indeed given the recent history of various P2P platforms.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 6, 2020 19:08:20 GMT
A bet/investment on the various AA accounts isn't just a bet on the health of the loanbook, its also a bet on the health of the platform itself. Unless you think that a platform wind-down (orderly or otherwise) would have zero impact on the loanbook. Which would be a very bold bet indeed given the recent history of various P2P platforms.
With the recent past ringing in our ears we can never completely eliminate platform risk but hopefully AC are right now printing CBILS loans as fast as they can; in a responsible manner I'm sure. All with the fees inc. etc.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Sept 7, 2020 7:57:48 GMT
Discount: Bid to Buy / Offer to Sell
Fri 04/09/20 9am 9.9% / 10.5%
8pm 9.7% / 9.9%
Sat 05/09/20 9am 9.6% / 10.1% (10.5% for £5K) Sun 06/09/20 9am 9.1% / 9.5%
1pm 8.6% / 9.3%
3pm 8.5% / 8.9%
6pm 8.2% / 8.3% - 9.0% 10pm 8.5% / 9.1% - 9.3%
Mon 07/09/20 9am 8.5% / 9.1%, 9.5%, 9.8%
5pm 8.5% / 9.0%, 9.3%, 9.5%
Tue 08/09/20 Noon 8.6% / 9.1%, 9.3%, 9.5%
7pm 8.3% / 8.7%, 8.8%, 8.9% (Touched 8.0% around 5pm)
Wed 09/09/20 9am 8.3% / 8.7%, 8.8%, 8.9% 6pm 8.2% / 8.4%, 8.4%, 8.4%, 8.5%
Thu 10/09/20 8pm 8.2% / 8.5%, 8.5%, 8.8% ,8.9% (£100, £1K, £5K, £10K)
Fri 11/09/20 8am 8.2% / 8.5% (£1K bid / £10K offer)
6pm 8.3% / 8.5%, 8.6%, 8.7%
Sat 12/09/20 9am 8.2% / 8.5%
10pm 8.3% / 8.5% - 8.9%
Mon 14/09/20 9am 8.2% / 8.9%
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Post by dabeztstuff on Sept 7, 2020 9:41:13 GMT
Fri 04/09/20 9am 9.9% / 10.5% 8pm 9.7% / 9.9%
Sat 05/09/20 9am 9.6% / 10.1% (10.5% for £5K) Sun 06/09/20 9am 9.1% / 9.5% 1pm 8.6% / 9.3% 3pm 8.5% / 8.9% 6pm 8.2% / 8.3% - 9.0%, 10pm 8.5% / 9.1% - 9.3%
Mon 07/09/20 9am 8.5% - 8.6% / 9.1%, 9.5%, 9.8% (£100, £1,000, £10,000)
No depth to the market at all.
Wow looks like the big discounts are running out. Good time to flip
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puddleduck
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Post by puddleduck on Sept 8, 2020 11:11:46 GMT
At least 30k available at 8.28% today.
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upperdeane
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Post by upperdeane on Sept 9, 2020 9:19:05 GMT
At least 30k available at 8.28% today. Seems to be stuck at 8.2% today for immediate purchase.
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Post by davee39 on Sept 12, 2020 11:19:36 GMT
Sold £120 at 8.2 overnight. Current sell rate is about 8.55.
After the PF email panic discount seems to be settled in the 8 - 9% range. I am watching for a breakout below 8%.
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